Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[FetteredChinos]

User, i wouldnt add just yet.. if you are looking long term, we might end up with an Up-day tomorrow for you to add then.

TS, i dont use a bike ever since they opened my local branch of Shopmobility..

 

[User]

Wednesday action: More consolidation which is bullish as we are consolidating at the highs. Also we are closing above the 10700 area which is also a good thing. A move in one direction or another is due soon. The VIX is suggesting down but consolidation is suggesting up.

A break of 10740 should lead us higher to 10750.

Well that didnt quite happen. We are obviously failing to test the area of 10750 and well we are sitting above 10700 until the next move leads to a clearly direction.

Watch 10690 as a breach of this area could well lead us to 10650. Moving through 10750 should lead to a higher advance towards 10800.

Good Luck

 

[FetteredChinos]

nice analysis User..

looks like another sell day on the Dow. (this is where Angell can cause problems)

relatively narrow range..

could be a big move on the "short sell" day today in that case..

holding for 10,650 still.

FC

 

[Salty Gibbon]

Watch 10690 as a breach of this area could well lead us to 10650. Moving through 10750 should lead to a higher advance towards 10800.

Talk about stating the obvious. My dog could probably work that one out.

 

[User]

Talk about stating the obvious. My dog could probably work that one out.

Your dog! He doesn't run managed accounts for trading the Dow does he?

 

[FetteredChinos]

Your dog! He doesn't run managed accounts for trading the Dow does he?

not since he has been put on the leash..


cant run anything now.

 

[FetteredChinos]

nice analysis User..

looks like another sell day on the Dow. (this is where Angell can cause problems)

relatively narrow range..

could be a big move on the "short sell" day today in that case..

holding for 10,650 still.

FC

looking ok thus far...

10,670 is and will be a stumbling block though from the move from 10740s though.

remains to see if it will be broken convincingly.

FC

 

[tradesmart]

10,670 is and will be a stumbling block though from the move from 10740s though.

Yeh, the uptrend line from 400 has been broken so watching the Liberace numbers now....

 

[FetteredChinos]

liberace??


not tight and spangly??


are we on US data day at 5??

ive given up waiting for any data apart from NFPS..

 

[tradesmart]

not tight and spangly??

FC - apologies - I meant Fibonacci numbers- I get him confused with Liberace 'cos they both wore strange clothes.......

A bear flag in the making - target 630ish.....?

 

[FetteredChinos]

and shagged like rabbits...

(so ive heard)

 

[User]

Excellent information peterpr

 

[User]

If 10660 is breached then this should extend the declines for today.
10630 should hold for support.
If it fails then 10600 could be broken in due course.

 

[FetteredChinos]

aye a bear flag would suit me..

i'll bail out of this short at 10650, when we get there

then if we hit 10640 or below i will try a long..

should reverse from there into friday according to my calcs..

 

[tradesmart]

Just spotted we reached 366 point above the 200DMA today.

Off course, I appreciated all along that this is in the daily timeframe.....

I never get my D's and S's mixed up FC.......

Regards

 

[FetteredChinos]

Peter - what time frame are you looking at.....?

Regards

errr daily?? DMA?

 

[peterpr]

Excellent information peterpr

The 200 DMA stuff concerned the FTSE100. No idea how it arrived on this thread. I've edited it accordingly but probably ought to delete it..

The DOW 200 DMA isn't particularly out of line. Neither is its RSI so I'm less confident of a tradeable retrace here. The possibility of more upside is one of the reasons I've been a bit diffident about the overdue FTSE correction. One of the NL's I follow has the DOW down for a major turn date on14-16th Feb next week and it looks more likely to be a high than a low unless it drops far and fast between now and then - the main OB/OS indicators and MA's aren't screaming down yet (even though volatility and some others are) so I'm neural on this one right now.

 

[User]

The Dow declined today and the Nasdaq had a horrible down day!

For the Dow to start moving down 10650 needs to be breached otherwise upside movement is still on the cards. A close above 10700 would suggest good strength. We could see more movement near current levels before a more definative direction is given by the Dow. However the Nasdaq is suggesting that the recent upward move is over and the downward direction which started in January should be continued. 2000 is the target.

Goodluck

 

[FetteredChinos]

have got today down as a Buy Day...as per 3 day cycles..

early dip (probably testing 10650/30) and from then on, upwards into friday...

FC

 

[User]

The rallied again but interesting to note that after having a massive down day yesterday the NASDAQ only managed a half a point gain. This is signaling a possible reversal. As I believe the NASDAQ leads movements up and down, well at the moment its seeming like the market may start going down. The DOW had a strong day again and ended back above 10700. It could not end above 10750 and had problems in that area. We could be setting a top for this recent upward move. The Vix ended down again about 4%. We are near the bottom as far as the VIX is concerned and it is difficult to get any lower. If the VIX does fall more then where does it stop? It can't go to zero. So not much downside left as far as the VIX is concerned and not much upside left as far as the DOW is concerned.

If 10770 is reached then 10800 should be seen. On the Down side 10720 should see us testing 10700. A breach of 10700 would result in 10650.

If any of you have any views on direction (Short, medium or Long) then share it.

Goodluck all.