Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[User]

10830-40

 

[tradesmart]

This thing seems like its not interested with 11,000

I'm still giving it a chance - it's stopped falling at the lower trendline from the 10400ish low...

The other scenario to give a chance is the big H&S that ChartMan has noted.....

To add to the options, there could be a 100point triangle in play also.......

Take your pick.............

 

[justyn]

It made it to 785 - isn't that close enough? 780 is strong support and looking very oversold on 1 min chart so we should see a rally

 

[tradesmart]

It made it to 785 - isn't that close enough?

Close enough for rock'n'roll Justyn....

Good call.........

 

[User]

It hasn't tested the trendline from the 2004 low. So I suppose until it breaches that level, 11,000 could be in reach. But TS I think you would agree that not even you thought it would behave in this manner just after breaking out last Friday. It's not really looked too good. The Nasdaq well not even intel could help it.

I'm long today and long again at 10802 but I'm not impressed with the manner that its behaved in not forgetting the excellent volume as well!

Bring on 11,000 because I would love to short it at that level. Bring on 10900 I'll love to short it at that level aswell.

Infact I think I'll start pilling on heavy shorts next week on any upward move we see using long term contracts.

 

[roguetrader]

it's stopped falling at the lower trendline from the 10400ish low...

Hi tradesmart, have you got a chart with that T/L on it handy, I don't have a trendline from 10400 ish that it has reached yet.

 

[roguetrader]

I have a trendline from 25/10/04 that goes through the 10360 ish low but that low will be 10735 if it hit today

 

[tradesmart]

But TS I think you would agree that not even you thought it would behave in this manner just after breaking out last Friday.

You’re right there User – I thought that it would hold above the 875 breakout line…..just one more lesson in not trading what you think….(fortunately, I don't... ...)

Hi tradesmart, have you got a chart with that T/L on it handy, I don't have a trendline from 10400 ish that it has reached yet.

Roguetrader – chart attached…..

 

[peterpr]

Hi tradesmart, have you got a chart with that T/L on it handy, I don't have a trendline from 10400 ish that it has reached yet.

Here's a 2 std Dev regression channel from there plus a 700 point wide one from October last year. Both 80% ish confidence. Price currently bang in the middle of the bigger one and lower quartile of the other.

I'm with TS on this. Unless it convincingly breaks below 10760 ish pretty smartish - I reckon we'll see 11000 plus before a major reversal towards the end of the month - all IMHO as usual.

 

[roguetrader]

Thanx Tradesmart and Peterpr

 

[counter_violent]

Is'nt this great ! 740 anytime soon

 

[peterpr]

Piece o' cake this trading business. Just go public on market direction and at the same time trade the opposite. simple really.

Seriously though, I guess I'll have to see it down to about 10740 or so before conceding - and there's plenty of scope on both RSI and MACD for it to get there too! (see earlier chart)

 

[lemput]

Pushing the lows(10760) this is great counter_ violent! my shorts look wicked today. I'm hoping that we avoid a late 8 o'clock rally which could take the gloss of a bit. My target is 10,600, then 1/2 my position and see we are at. I'll be interested to hears views on adv/dec. and volume today. that 10 year note keeps working in our favour!

 

[roguetrader]

Volume with half hour to go.

 

[counter_violent]

Pushing the lows(10760) this is great counter_ violent! my shorts look wicked today. I'm hoping that we avoid a late 8 o'clock rally which could take the gloss of a bit. My target is 10,600, then 1/2 my position and see we are at. I'll be interested to hears views on adv/dec. and volume today. that 10 year note keeps working in our favour!

I'm pleased you got a result today lemput . Not much chance of a late rally as i now see today as a trending day .



ooops :!:

 

[peterpr]

I'm pleased you got a result today lemput . Not much chance of a late rally as i now see today as a trending day .

See what I mean - go public one way - trade the opposite - never fails

 

[counter_violent]

See what I mean - go public one way - trade the opposite - never fails

ROFL I love it

 

[roguetrader]

I'm pleased you got a result today lemput . Not much chance of a late rally as i now see today as a trending day .



ooops :!:

Would sir like anything else with that late rally?

 

[lemput]

could of been worse, call it a draw, half between the lows and the recovery highs at just under 10800. All in all this will make it interesting chewing the fat over where the dow goes. Bulls and bears always welcome. enjoy weekends. personal- i'm a bear. but i would say that really.

 

[User]

Wasn't the best day for me on trading the Dow. Anyway chart is showing support at 10770-50 and should this hold then a bounce higher is likely. Should it fail then we test major support at 10600. I reckon oil will back off and head lower next week and the dollar may strengthen otherwise we could be facing a real dollar meltdown. The Dow should head higher next week. But all eyes on 10770-50 on short term direction. Peterpr I see you say that we could test 11,000 before end of this month. Should be interesting but I feel it has to hold the support level mentioned if it doesn't then 10600 seems highly likely and then I would say any chance of 11,000 would well and truly die! All in the balance though so interesting week we have ahead us.

A lot of members are contributing nicely for this thread. Keep it up. As for the polls I set up, well it has been a poor response and that is disappointing as I wanted to see the general consensus amongst members.

Good luck all for next week. Well done lemput. I might post a chart over the weekend if I get time.