Where is market heading ? Short , Medium Term Grey's analysis

[firewalker99]

He should be doing better than that due to appropriate stock selection ie he should be substantially beating any of the indices. This, IMHO, is a very important point.

Assuming that this is not solely due to the beta of the chosen stocks, then this outperformance cannot be replicated (at the same level of risk) merely by using a higher leverage instrument such as futures.

How do you determine risk if there is no price level determined beforehand that will indicate when a trade is going wrong?

The leverage of futures is irrelevant in any comparison because we should measure the % profit, not the profit in terms of absolute money.

 

[Grey1]

By all means, I meant no "intrusion" whatsoever, but Grey1 insisted I continue my analysis, so that's what I did. If at any time people should feel this is not the place to do it, I'll take my charts back to where I had them before I'm not here to distract people or convince them into becoming daytraders. I can only say that I have found the truth to be in the chart and not in whatever indicator or fundamental reading.



There is no such thing as a "non-technical day". People using RSI, CCI, MACCI and all sorts of indicators believe that when price is "overbought" or "oversold" it should respectively drop or rise. It's no wonder they come to the conclusion "TA fails, it does not work".

When talking about TA, I am talking about TA in its purest form, the actual price/volume behavior of the market or instrument, on the assumption that price reflects all factors before an investor becomes aware of them through other means.



I'd be more than willing to do this analysis elsewhere. I have posted these things in my blog, in the private board, in the public DOW thread. If ultimately people think it's not suited here, I'm okay with that.

As for making more dosh by longer term trading, that's an easy one. If I'm correct Grey1 is long from April 17 around 12500. He's now about 500 points in profit. A rather conservative trader I know about makes about half of the average daily range on the DOW (which has been around 200 points for the last couple of weeks). This means he'd have from 10 trading days x 100 pts = 1000 points profit. The more short term a trader plays, the more profit he can make. Anyone doubting this, should seriously consider having a look at what pure TA traders manage. There are far better traders out there than me who could show you this.

Market up again another 100 points NOW 13129 as ia writing this ,, while only last week the best technicians on CNBC ( the qualified Technician ) were shorting the market.

FW u know some thing mate ,, Chalrton is right , it is fine to post TA analysis but i really really wish to turn around your trading by telling you things that no one else would tell . if you are after $$$ then TA on its own is not the answer,, I have given you a wake up call but if you stil insist about TA and how you do this or that then you are in wrong buddy ,,

Most of the people on this site are awesome awesome chartists with many years of experience,, I have actually met them ,,,I can name many of them and you have no idea how deep i have studied TA myself. so you are not really saying new things to people here but we have now moved on and I have managed to open few eyes.

I had a live trading day with 30 of people from this BB on 29th Feb and we all used TA but in a format which is different to conventional TA.. I personally have traded in my house with 50 people from this room in my house many many day and never lost a day and those who have been to my house can testify to this .

SECRET OF WEALTH IS NOT in trend line S&P and all that ,, it is in gaining a 20 $ run from a stock using FA and TA in combination ,,,

The problem is you see this as a challenge my man to you honner and authorithy , we mean to make money . you want help I help you to make $$$ but if you donot need help and making ur fortune using TA then muchas gracias ,, i am sure one day you turn back and say I wish i had listen to this guy because i at least have 10 years more experience of using TA than yourgood self but I leave it at that

grey1

 

[Grey1]

He should be doing better than that due to appropriate stock selection ie he should be substantially beating any of the indices. This, IMHO, is a very important point.

Assuming that this is not solely due to the beta of the chosen stocks, then this outperformance cannot be replicated (at the same level of risk) merely by using a higher leverage instrument such as futures.

correct

My portfolio is much stronger than the market as you all know how i choose stocks . One of my traders got in 3 days after me he emailed me to say he is up 13% already

Now this is trading ,, making $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ just the way we went short in SEP when every body else was LONG ,,

grey1

 

[firewalker99]

Market up again another 100 points NOW 13129 as ia writing this ,, while only last week the best technicians on CNBC ( the qualified Technician ) were shorting the market.

FW u know some thing mate ,, Chalrton is right , it is fine to post TA analysis but i really really wish to turn around your trading by telling you things that no one else would tell . if you are after $$$ then TA on its own is not the answer,, I have given you a wake up call but if you stil insist about TA and how you do this or that then you are in wrong buddy ,,

"Telling me things that no one else would tell" sounds very guru-like. And I really have an aversion of people who do that, sorry... Let's be honest, there are no secrets in the markets, there is no Holy Grail.

Most of the people on this site are awesome awesome chartists with many years of experience,, I have actually met them ,,,I can name many of them and you have no idea how deep i have studied TA myself. so you are not really saying new things to people here but we have now moved on and I have managed to open few eyes.

If you have studied it, than I'm very surprised to read about things like MACCI. Sorry, but if you need to use indicators in order to read the chart, you'll always be two steps behind.

I had a live trading day with 30 of people from this BB on 29th Feb and we all used TA but in a format which is different to conventional TA.. I personally have traded in my house with 50 people from this room in my house many many day and never lost a day and those who have been to my house can testify to this .

I never questioned your ability to make money. I only said, and I re-iterate, you don't need to know anything about fundamentals to be profitable.

SECRET OF WEALTH IS NOT in trend line S&P and all that ,, it is in gaining a 20 $ run from a stock using FA and TA in combination ,,,

There are many different ways to make money in the market, and it's actually rather arrogant to claim that "the secret of wealth" lies in FA+TA, while there are dozen other people, if not hundreds, that manage to make a lot of money without ever looking at the fundamental strength of a stock or sector for that matter.

 

[firewalker99]

The problem is you see this as a challenge my man to you honner and authorithy , we mean to make money . you want help I help you to make $$$ but if you donot need help and making ur fortune using TA then muchas gracias ,, i am sure one day you turn back and say I wish i had listen to this guy because i at least have 10 years more experience of using TA than yourgood self but I leave it at that

I'm sensing you are somehow trying to convince me of using your methods. Adopt or leave, is that what you are saying? :-0

If your experience has convinced you that swing trading is more profitable than daytrading, than I suggest this has more to do with your own failure to use intraday daytrading methods to your advantage. I have seen people trade an index from day to day, making profits in one week that no position trader could make in several weeks or perhaps even months.

I say each to their own, and I respect your methods and believe they are adequate enough to make you a decent living. But don't assume that other methods by definition are less effective, especially if the evidence to the contrary is ubiquitous. Let's compare to popular examples, Warren Buffet, trading longer term making 20-30% per annum or In Larry Williams (who won the World Cup Championship of Futures Trading) who turned $10,000 in real money to $1,147,000 in 12 months?

Now tell me, what is more profitable, swing trading or daytrading?

correct

My portfolio is much stronger than the market as you all know how i choose stocks . One of my traders got in 3 days after me he emailed me to say he is up 13% already

Now this is trading ,, making $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ just the way we went short in SEP when every body else was LONG ,,

grey1

I'm happy for you if you think double digit profits are the secret to wealth.
Good trading to you.

 

[Grey1]

"Telling me things that no one else would tell" sounds very guru-like. And I really have an aversion of people who do that, sorry... Let's be honest, there are no secrets in the markets, there is no Holy Grail.


If you have studied it, than I'm very surprised to read about things like MACCI. Sorry, but if you need to use indicators in order to read the chart, you'll always be two steps behind.


I never questioned your ability to make money. I only said, and I re-iterate, you don't need to know anything about fundamentals to be profitable.


There are many different ways to make money in the market, and it's actually rather arrogant to claim that "the secret of wealth" lies in FA+TA, while there are dozen other people, if not hundreds, that manage to make a lot of money without ever looking at the fundamental strength of a stock or sector for that matter.

FW I wont discuss any thing else with you and this will be my last post about it. I think you should move on to the main BB . I am sure there are 1000 s of people there who want to know how and where to draw a trend line,, I certainly am not interested . None of your analysis last past few days was correct . Your argument from going long in JAN was flawed up until your short call on the market.

Happy trading .

grey1

 

[firewalker99]

FW I wont discuss any thing else with you and this will be my last post about it. I think you should move on to the main BB . I am sure there are 1000 s of people there who want to know how and where to draw a trend line,, I certainly am not interested . None of your analysis last past few days was correct . Your argument from going long in JAN was flawed up until your short call on the market.

Happy trading .

grey1

My short call was incorrect, but like I said I'm not a swing trader. My intraday positions have been doing fine thank you. As for drawing trendlines, there's obviously much more to it than that. And the January long was a selling climax long. I take these trades on intraday basis more than you'd realize.

I'm sorry you are not interested in changing opinions further. Perhaps are you too focused on your own methods which blinds you to the other lucrative opportunities in the market.

Those who are still interested in seeing how the markets can be approached from a purely TA point of view, may still contact me through PM. The offer for a 10-day analysis still stands. And contrary to Grey1, I won't just focus on the good trades, I'll mention the bad ones too. One swallow doesn't make a summer.

 

[belflan]

The problem is to do with focus. I’m sorry Belflan – you show a lot of interest in many different aspects of Grey1’s strategies opening up new threads for each, but it is as if you are using a blunderbuss to hit broadside many targets, but without seriously denting any. As soon as any new topic or poster arises you are off in another direction. Focus is what is needed now.

not sure what to say here,

If I continue with my threads, i may not be focused enough,

I can't move them else where as the strats / indictors are not mine

hmm, I have learnt alot from them so far.. never really thought they were being disapproved of by members of TT. (maybe i have been selfish regarding what I'm trying to do here)

belflan

 

[belflan]

(maybe i have been selfish regarding what I'm trying to do here)

thinking about this, I've never actual asked Grey1 if I could start a thread.

Belflan

 

[dcraig1]

not sure what to say here,

If I continue with my threads, i may not be focused enough,

I can't move them else where as the strats / indictors are not mine

hmm, I have learnt alot from them so far.. never really thought they were being disapproved of by members of TT. (maybe i have been selfish regarding what I'm trying to do here)

belflan

I do not think your threads are a problem. They are self contained, and if members are not interested, they need not read them. And broadly speaking you are attempting to understand and implement Greys methods for intraday and swing trading.

IMHO a certain amount of diversity is not a bad thing and is to some extent part of a process of due diligence before betting the farm on the markets.

 

[Charlton]

not sure what to say here,

If I continue with my threads, i may not be focused enough,

I can't move them else where as the strats / indictors are not mine

hmm, I have learnt alot from them so far.. never really thought they were being disapproved of by members of TT. (maybe i have been selfish regarding what I'm trying to do here)

belflan

Belflan

It's not that your threads are wrong and I don't diapprove of them and I don't think you are selfish. As you know I have added comments to them on several occasions.

It's just that the temptation to go down every path, IMHO, detracts from remaining focussed on the central aspects of Grey1's strategies, what makes them different to the rest of T2W and will make it less likely to succeed at them.

In particular I am concerned that we don't see some kind of competition thread appearing here, which simply detracts from that focus.

It was your quickness to encourage this FW challenge followed by Yuppie getting on board too, that I am criticising. Conversely I support your attempts to understand and implement Grey1's strategies.

I don't have a problem with FW showing his methods and would probably be interested in seeing them, but just not in this partiular forum.

There is a lot of material in this forum and it takes time to understand it and to try to apply it, so someone who has not been through that process will make judgements about what, for example, FA means in the context of Grey1's strategy.

Grey1 has already given his view on this ( a few posts back). It is his forum and we should respect that by not encouraging others to take it in entirely different directions.

Charlton

 

[chump]

Still here instead of sleeping, so I might as well make the reply now!


No, I think the $ has seen the worst - at least for some time.


I don't track nor believe in estimates, reports, dividends, etc...


No, if the smart money has positioned itself for a ride up, than we won't to jump along that train. No argument there. However, I'm not necessarily seeing 'the smart money' as the top fund managers. History has enough examples where big fund managers blow out...


Exactly! The current bad news has already been priced into the news. This is why markets plunged before the worst came out. Consumer confidence at 5 year low? Markets told the story 4 months ago.


I'm going to be honest with you, until yesterday the downside scenario was very much in play. We spiked up to 13000 and closed below 12800. A continuation to the downside was needed but today we reversed and set in a new high since this year.


The Nasdaq is flying indeed... the problem is I don't believe the techs to be the leading indicator when it comes from turning from bearish to bullish. Materials and energy sectors should signal a turn.

I'm open to suggestions, but I should point out that the "larger timeframe" has very little influence in my day-to-day trading. Actually, I think you'd hardly notice from my positions what the market is doing. I take short and long positions almost each day.

FW,
Catch Stovall's S & P research on sector rotation...techs lead ..energy and basic mats top the cycle for rotation purposes. That's also why I am to swing up at this point ,but still fundamentally bearish as i see dollar strength at this point to possibly be the what that would take the medium term legs out from under oil ,comms etc. So I'm swing long strength (and that strength is basically my stop as if it starts failing at resistance so will everything else).
If you think about it the above rotation is logical as it takes the demand of a bull run to leave an overhang of mats/energy when demand falls off.
The big question here is for me is does global demand drop off enough to offset dollar strength impacting on energy etc. For FTSE this is critical given the weighting now in that index on Mining and Enegry.
No crystal ball on that ,but any drop off has to contend with a lot of inflationary action from central banks and for sure price is not reacting to news in any way at the moment that says this market is not strong right now on this swing (caveat swing).
So downside might simply turn into sideways. That might be the summer doldrums.
I couldn't begin to put any probabilities on this though which is why from an investment point of view/fundamentals I'm going to keep buying any dip on a sustainable allocation basis in any of the markets that have exhibited high growth rates. Trading I can swing it until I can't.

 

[belflan]

Belflan

It's not that your threads are wrong and I don't diapprove of them and I don't think you are selfish. As you know I have added comments to them on several occasions.

It's just that the temptation to go down every path, IMHO, detracts from remaining focussed on the central aspects of Grey1's strategies, what makes them different to the rest of T2W and will make it less likely to succeed at them.

In particular I am concerned that we don't see some kind of competition thread appearing here, which simply detracts from that focus.

It was your quickness to encourage this FW challenge followed by Yuppie getting on board too, that I am criticising. Conversely I support your attempts to understand and implement Grey1's strategies.

I don't have a problem with FW showing his methods and would probably be interested in seeing them, but just not in this partiular forum.

There is a lot of material in this forum and it takes time to understand it and to try to apply it, so someone who has not been through that process will make judgements about what, for example, FA means in the context of Grey1's strategy.

Grey1 has already given his view on this ( a few posts back). It is his forum and we should respect that by not encouraging others to take it in entirely different directions.

Charlton

Charlton

having thought about it some more after your comments, I believe I was wrong to encourage FW to post his market analysis on TT. It is not my place to do so. I certainly would not like anything to detract from TT in any way.

belflan

 

[Grey1]

guys

I have already explaind this many times in the seminar, if you are going to choose stocks to go long you should use iraj N MINUTE with daily compression and choose those which are stronger than INDU with the lowest MACCI. As simple as that

I have had 2 emails to day that members have gone long of wrong stocks even though i have explained this many many times ,, This is really really SIMPLE NOTHING TO IT .

This market is very very strong ,,
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CISCO and Walt Disney are reporting in a minute and can set the tone for 2morrow .. Hope u are all following the conference call ,,,, what an awesome trading day ,, It too me 30 minutes to analyse the market direction but the time taken well worth the wait .




grey1

 

[Grey1]

This market wil break out to above after some how geting out of the OB situation ,, Donot mess about and get into the market if you already have not, Some of you who got in pretty late still up even after 200 points sell yesterday.

I am currenlty monitoring 3 portfolio's of three members and all have smile on their face with just 1 new portfolio with few hunderd in profit ( due to very very late entry )


Donot doubt this market ,,,, I know you all got scared from 200 point sell off but remember if you are in a fundamentally sound high beta stocks the losses are minimum when market goes against you but the wins be much larger when market favours you ,,

Please donot open any positions when market is in positve ,, you want to buy sound stocks when every body is selling them, THIS IS THE MOST BASIC RULE FOR ENTRY . The worse thing a trader can do is to chase the winners when they are flying ,,, This is terrible


Keep your eyes on INDU MACCI DAILY for entry




grey1

 

[firewalker99]

Please donot open any positions when market is in positve ,, you want to buy sound stocks when every body is selling them, THIS IS THE MOST BASIC RULE FOR ENTRY . The worse thing a trader can do is to chase the winners when they are flying ,,, This is terrible

grey1

Despite your earlier disagreement with me Grey1, you have a remarkable similar view of when to take a position. I said earlier on you'd want to be when everyone is selling but you thought that was plain stupid then. Perhaps my formulation led to a different interpretation, but anyhow it's good to read this.

I don't follow individual stocks, but it will be crucial that the DOW stays above the 12700 level...

Good trading.

 

[Grey1]

Despite your earlier disagreement with me Grey1, you have a remarkable similar view of when to take a position. I said earlier on you'd want to be when everyone is selling but you thought that was plain stupid then.

FW

you did not read my post correctly and perhaps this is because you are not a stock trader,

I said YOU BUY FUNDAMENTALLY strong stock when every one is selling them , The difference between what you said about market selling climax and stock is in the crucial word " FUNDAMENTALLY STRONG " . IF MARKET WAS FUNDAMENATLLY STRONG WHEN SELLING CLIMAX HAPPEND THEN YOU WOULD GO LONG BUT IT WAS NOT . IT WAS BLOOD BATH this is why we had to wait till we had a confirmation. STOCKS are different.. APPLE is a fundamentally strong stock so when other traders sell you BUY the stock where as SBUX ( starbux ) does not have the SOUND fundamentals Hence you would not BUY IT ,,, this is why even with market going up strongly,, SBUX is trading @ 26 weeks low where as AAPL is flying


As I said the error in your above post is because you are not a stock trader ,,
AAPL has awesome fundamentals hence flies while SBUX has poor fundamentals and collapses

summary :-- You DONT BUY SBUX ( STAR BUX) WHEN EVERY ONE IS SELLING BUT YOU BUY APPLE WHEN EVERY ONE IS SELLING


grey1

 

[firewalker99]

FW

you did not read my post correctly and perhaps this is because you are not a stock trader,

As I said the error in your above post is because you are not a stock trader ,,
AAPL has awesome fundamentals hence flies while SBUX has poor fundamentals and collapses

summary :-- You DONT BUY SBUX ( STAR BUX) WHEN EVERY ONE IS SELLING BUT YOU BUY APPLE WHEN EVERY ONE IS SELLING

grey1

I'm not a stock trader, so I'm not going to argue about this. I just that if we both took the time to look at it, we'd probably see that we come to the same conclusion often, albeit taking another road.

 

[Grey1]

I'm not a stock trader, so I'm not going to argue about this. I just that if we both took the time to look at it, we'd probably see that we come to the same conclusion often, albeit taking another road.

I am going to shed a bit of light on this as I think it is useful to all other members.

CROX is a stock which was darling of the stock market. it was trading @ 70 $ till it missed its earning and stock collapsed to 11$ in 4 month only ,, It went through all support levels just like hot knife on butter.

yesterday I WENT LONG CROX when every 1 was selling the stock as the stock's fundamentals improved hugely .. infact CROX's revenue improved by 40% this Q.

I am expecting to double my money in less than 2 -4 month and I think I will ...

Fundamentals drive any asset class.. TA just tell you that the asset class has MOVED but does not give you a reason for the move as a result you would not know if the move is just a temporary OB/OS condition or more of a longer and lasting MOVE.


Grey1

 

[Grey1]

Market been up for two days but we are not out of the woods yet and need to see WEEKLY cycle to come to the end,

Two ways this can be done,

a) a massive up day of lets say 300 points
b) few days of small correction ( around 50 points a day ) with one 200 point SPIKE to above

if either of them happens then weekly cycle comes to the end and you can see market BREAKING OUT like mad.

I really really hope you guys have opened a swing portfolio and making $$$$$$ day by day . Those who opened with me are laughing ,,, Those who needed more and more and even more confirmation still are up an average of 3000$ on 30K ( 60K buying power )


did any of the volume analysts saw the market as strong month ago ? NOPE another failure of TA

Grey1