Where is market heading ? Short , Medium Term Grey's analysis

[Grey1]

Just thought to give you guys my view to wards the market action to day ,, As I previously mentioned before we break out the Weekly CYCLE must and I stress it must come to the end. Add this factor to poor PPI was the result of the sell off and i expect the weakness to continue before the market settles down , If you have a strong portfolio the weakness should not affect your position by much .

Grey1

Today I reduced 3/4 of my positions on my long portfolio as a result of OIL crisis. The 135$ was not factored in my analysis and I have taken 8% profit off the table ( stronger than the market portfolio ) with remaining @ break even Except CROX with a 10.50$ stop.

The oil crisis is one of those catalysts that must not be ignored and this should be reflected in projected stock prices. As a result I am 75% cash .

No short positions and i don't feel we be going to the March LOW,, I think we will go down further till MACCI INDU WEEKLY is over sold and we be oscillating for a while .

Fed statement was very bearish yesterday which did not help the BULLS .

There is also a report in an ISRAEL news paper that US might attack IRAN which was denied but this cannot be over ruled. Should this happen there will be a massive spike in OIL prices which stock market wont recover easily . Bush's request from Iranian to increase out put was rejected by Ahmadi Nejad which adds to the rumour of attack.


DOW currently @ 12635 as i am writing this ,

Grey1

 

[dcraig1]

"The debt markets in the US and Europe have begun to flash warning signals yet again, raising fears that the global credit crisis could be entering another turbulent phase."

US and European debt markets flash new warning signals - Telegraph

 

[Grey1]

. Bush's request from Iranian to increase out put was rejected by Ahmadi Nejad which adds to the rumour of attack.
Grey1

The rumours of Attacking IRAN by ISREAL unrested the stock market with Pentagon denying the rumour late after noon saying " the rumour being an OLD NEWS."

OIL now trading at 138$ and God bless the Scooter companies who are making a killing out of such crises.

Grey1

 

[breadman]

Grey1

monthly, weekly and daily MACCI are now pointing up. Do you think the market has a chance of getting to the May highs of around 13150 over the next 6 to 9 months.

thanks,

breadman

 

[Grey1]

Grey1

monthly, weekly and daily MACCI are now pointing up. Do you think the market has a chance of getting to the May highs of around 13150 over the next 6 to 9 months.

thanks,

breadman

I would say the weekly chart has just started to point up but due to a very very negative sentiment we should let more buyers to move in before we can move in ,, remember the OIL price is yet to hit the forecasted 170$ price and I suspect it is not safe yet to open a position,,, What is the rush any way ? lets catch the next boat ,,,,,



grey1

 

[Glenn]

I would say the weekly chart has just started to point up but due to a very very negative sentiment we should let more buyers to move in before we can move in ,, remember the OIL price is yet to hit the forecasted 170$ price and I suspect it is not safe yet to open a position,,, What is the rush any way ? lets catch the next boat ,,,,,



grey1

Agreed Grey1 - it's too soon.
Mr. Market is weak.
Monthly Macci will turn down today imho.
What it will do during the rest of July remains to be seen.
Weekly could also turn back down by next Monday.

Glenn

 

[dcraig1]

remember the OIL price is yet to hit the forecasted 170$ price

Relationship of stock prices to oil price:

FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » Chart of the day: Yes, it was all about oil

 

[Grey1]

Relationship of stock prices to oil price:

FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » Chart of the day: Yes, it was all about oil

Spot on ..


There was a news leaked from Russia that oil will soon hit $270.

GOD HELP the market,, No up ward catalyst except OB/OS ( like to day ) .
We are officially in a bear market. very difficult to trade the market technically when sentiment is bearish and market is SO SO over sold.


Grey1

 

[jdbzero]

Futures down by 159 points as I am writing this ,, Well,, I remember only on Monday that momentum analysts were ALL calling MONDAY as the bottom, Crammer claimed that he had a NEW oscillator which has been accurate for last past few years and called Monday as the bottom .

Hmmm. Good job crammer is not a day trader

Grey1

Cramer's still using that oscillator ...

Cramer flip flop

 

[iq200]

Forget about day trading. Why the hell does he even have a day job???


I say ..... SACK HIM ... NOW NOW NOW!!

 

[dcraig1]

It seems what Cramer was up to was betting on sector rotation into financials and homebuilders. Looks like pure gambling as there seems to have been no evidence at all to support such a conclusion - other than his whizz bang SPX oscillator.

Herein lies a lesson.

 

[LuckyBucks]

Iraj,

Looks like the indexes have bottomed at least for a while, so we should at the very least get a good rally. We have false break gaps to the downside on the indexes with fast reversals upwards, and a serious break to the downside on oil with the last swing low taken out, and wild swings which indicates a top could be in for quite a while.

Luckybucks

Spot on ..


There was a news leaked from Russia that oil will soon hit $270.

GOD HELP the market,, No up ward catalyst except OB/OS ( like to day ) .
We are officially in a bear market. very difficult to trade the market technically when sentiment is bearish and market is SO SO over sold.


Grey1

 

[Grey1]

Iraj,

Looks like the indexes have bottomed at least for a while, so we should at the very least get a good rally. We have false break gaps to the downside on the indexes with fast reversals upwards, and a serious break to the downside on oil with the last swing low taken out, and wild swings which indicates a top could be in for quite a while.

Luckybucks

Hi

could not agree more , how ever i am not going to go long due to IRAN , US possible confrontation which could send oil to all time high and the market to south,,, We really don't need to catch the first boat,, we catch the next one once I know more about the IRAN situation ,,,

Most bank traders I know are in chicken position ( cash )..

PS:-- try to see the market from FA point of view for ur swings then TA,,,,

Grey1

 

[Grey1]

Hi

could not agree more , how ever i am not going to go long due to IRAN , US possible confrontation which could send oil to all time high and the market to south,,, We really don't need to catch the first boat,, we catch the next one once I know more about the IRAN situation ,,,

Most bank traders I know are in chicken position ( cash )..

PS:-- try to see the market from FA point of view for ur swings then TA,,,,

Grey1

OIL 6 weeks LOW,,, I am going to go LONG as soon as we have a weakness in the market,, I will inform the board as soon as I open position

Grey1

 

[Grey1]

OIL 6 weeks LOW,,, I am going to go LONG as soon as we have a weakness in the market,, I will inform the board as soon as I open position


Grey1

Please remember I might not go LONG at all . ALL i am saying is that the technical justification is now has the support of OIL deflation,,
OIL is falling for the wrong reasons and It might not carry on falling .. If Negotiation between IRAN and USA fails bear fruit then OIL should rise and we be going further down ,,

We are still in bear market rally so lets keep finger crossed that the bubble on OIL is burst and this is not just a temperory pull back ,,,

 

[leovirgo]

Hi Iraj
With SEC banning shortsale on financial stocks and T+3 delivery for any shortsale stocks, what would be implications for traders like us? thanks,..

 

[Grey1]

Hi Iraj
With SEC banning shortsale on financial stocks and T+3 delivery for any shortsale stocks, what would be implications for traders like us? thanks,..

The market psychology has changed and I am not quite sure about the implications,, We all need to wait and see ,, market has changed character and we dealing with un known mass behaviour here ,,
just one thing ,, Supply and demand still works the same way and stocks can still collapse as a result of lack of demand.

Short selling or not short selling We will kick proper ass on Friday ,,

Grey1

 

[evostik]

The market psychology has changed and I am not quite sure about the implications,, We all need to wait and see ,, market has changed character and we dealing with un known mass behaviour here ,,
just one thing ,, Supply and demand still works the same way and stocks can still collapse as a result of lack of demand.

Short selling or not short selling We will kick proper ass on Friday ,,

Grey1

Thanks Grey1 - I had to miss your last session because of family holidays so I am really looking forward to this coming Friday.

Cheers
Steve

 

[Charlton]

Exciting day coming up

The market psychology has changed and I am not quite sure about the implications,, We all need to wait and see ,, market has changed character and we dealing with un known mass behaviour here ,,
just one thing ,, Supply and demand still works the same way and stocks can still collapse as a result of lack of demand.

Short selling or not short selling We will kick proper ass on Friday ,,

Grey1

This should prove to be a most interesting day.

I look forward to hearing your views on how the strategies we have been using over the past webinars can best be applied/adapted in the current climate, what timeframes are appropriate at the moment, whether there are are techniques that you think might be more appropriate at different sessions during the day amongst other topics.

Charlton

 

[leovirgo]

The market psychology has changed and I am not quite sure about the implications,, We all need to wait and see ,, market has changed character and we dealing with un known mass behaviour here ,,
just one thing ,, Supply and demand still works the same way and stocks can still collapse as a result of lack of demand.

Short selling or not short selling We will kick proper ass on Friday ,,

Grey1

I have to miss Friday's session but I am back to trading fulltime. So.. you'll see me more often here and there.. and.. many thanks for your encouragement and seminars etc. best,..