Getting Started What can I make in my first year trading?

We get questions like this one quite often. We find that most aspiring traders don't have a clue as to what to expect from the market. Yet here they are, putting up their money. Most are going to learn the hard way. We have no idea in the world what you can expect to make in your first year of trading, or any other year, for that matter. What we can tell you is that without proper guidance and help, you are probably going to have some very bitter experiences. Why? Because your anticipations are almost completely wrong.

Futures traders, especially beginning traders, often open an account with unrealistic expectations of trading performance. These expectations could be formed by the sales literature for a trading program that emphasizes its profitability, by reports of success stories by top traders or by some brokers within the industry. In all cases, you are rarely made aware of the many other times when performances were considerably worse. In other words, you are a victim of selection bias.

Most advertisers of courses, systems, books, etc., will mislead you into thinking that you just can't lose if you buy what they are selling. We are talking here about hype, major hype - as much as the authorities will allow them to get away with.

Selection bias is a term well known within the social sciences and occurs whenever some undesired screening factor leads to a misrepresentation of a population sample. For example, traders seldom express their losing trades with as much enthusiasm as their winning trades. Consequently, a random selection of letters or phone calls received by a company that sells a trading program often will overstate the proportion of traders who are doing well. Sometimes the cause of the selection bias is not obvious. For instance, let's say that a trader who purchases a very expensive price and charting package is more profitable than another trader without it. The merits of the package seem obvious. Maybe not. It could be that the individual who can afford to purchase the package is better capitalized than the other trader and this is the reason for the better performance.

Starting off your futures and options trading experience with unrealistic expectations inevitably will lead to frustration and disappointment. It's better to face reality now. It will make life as a trader easier down the road. Here are just a few facts to dispel those unrealistic expectations.

  1. More traders lose money than make money. The figures are fuzzy, but it is 80% to 90% (maybe more) who end up losers and leave.
  2. Within the industry, only a small percentage of retail traders are profitable on a consistent basis. Moreover, if you are just starting out, you should expect to incur some loss strictly due to error on your part as you climb up the learning curve. Increased trading knowledge and experience combined with trading strategies that have superior risk/return characteristics can help put the odds of success in your favor. So, it is important to study the markets and educate yourself before trading or, alternatively, you can rely on the support of your broker professional. Another option you may also want to consider is paper trading. It's a viable option because it's a lot cheaper to make a mistake in a fictitious account than a real one.
  3. You will have losing trades. In fact, most of your trades will be losing trades. It is impossible to predict price movements every time. Even when the technical and fundamental factors are in agreement, the market often moves in an unexpected way. This can even happen several times in a row. For this reason, it is always important to make sure that loss is limited on every trade and that you have sufficient trading capital to withstand several losing trades without being taken out of the game.
  4. Don't expect to become financially independent. It's unrealistic to expect a small-sized account, especially one under $5,000, to generate consistent income to replace regular employment. While this may be possible for a very low percentage of traders, it does often require high-risk trading. High-risk trading means that if you are one of the many who lost money, then you probably lost your money very quickly and you may end up owing even more money to the clearing firm. High-risk trading should be avoided, especially by the beginner. Rather, concentrate on low-risk, low-frequency trading and devote appropriate effort to increasing your knowledge and understanding of futures trading.

Keep in mind that, as a beginner the emphasis should be on learning and proceeding slowly. By that, I mean practicing in a paper trading account and confining your trades to those that have low risk. The expectations of huge profit that many beginners start out with may be realized, but only after you invest the requisite time and energy and only after a slow and realistic start.
 
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erm i wasnt knocking in the slightest..quite the opposite. im all for encouragement.

contrary to popular opinion, i am actually quite considerate, but i dont like the sancitmonious and overly serious attitude that pervades these boards an awful lot of the time..

trading, is a solitary, and frankly quite dull pastime. the reason BB's are so popular, apart from the obvious exchange of ideas (well from some people anyway), is the fact that they allow people to interact, whilst still being at their trading screens..

the chat and banter is just as much part of BB culture as the ideas and petty arguments.

Soc, i wish you well, and good luck with the holiday.
 
Thanks, Fettered. Of course all of it is fun and a welcome change from gazing at screens, like now for example when everything is going sideways, like watching paint dry.

It is the loneliness and isolation of trading that is difficult to cope with sometimes, not the trading itself.

Kind Regards.
 
That's very ballanced of you bramble, actually I think you are probably right, afterall it's easy to find a successful male trader, but it's harder to find any kind of female trader. That's a shame in a way, but it's not like there are any gender specific barriers to entry (possibly when getting a job as a trader as is pointed out in "liars poker") but not for private traders.
 
SOCRATES said:
II would like to take the opportunity to salute the 3 lady members of this website who are my students. I commend you for your clarity of vision, discipline and discretion.
Well done Socco. I have 15 female members of these boards and 78 males. All whom I mentor and support. And they adore me.

They have all seen me trade and know my setups and my exits and just how large a player I am.

They have seen me not only predict the movement (or atemporal flow in quasi-multi-dimensional space-time as we call it) and of price structures and schedules, but seen me compose a chart (including volume and OHLC) on a 5min bar basis a week ahead of the actual events. And across all instruments on all exchanges. Including commodities.

Of course, being discreet, and having the correct character and after exhaustive tests for satisfaction of the numerous and difficult tasks set them, nobody will ever know who they are as I have sworn them all to absolute secrecy on pain of excommunication from my elite cadre.

To the profane and grossly unaware bunch that pass for traders on these boards (scum - every man jack of them) it's almost as if they didn't really exist.
 
SOCRATES said:
I have a minute between proceedings.

I would like to take the opportunity to salute the 3 lady members of this website who are my students. I commend you for your clarity of vision, discipline and discretion.

There is no need to post as you have earnt your right to anonymity and personal freedom which has to be respected.

If all traders had your abilities and behaved like you do there would never be any arguments, only constructive discussion and progress.

Also what is remarkable about you three is not only your performance but also the fact that your ability to embrace all of the agenda and not to stray one inch into the temptations placed in your path should stand as an example to the men.

This is as a consequence of your complete openmindedness and willingness to progress, through acceptance rather than confrontation.

Kindest Regards To You Special Three .X.X.X.


You talk a lot about people not being able to "work it out". And after reading several hundred of your posts, which I can't work out (I am very limited, I know :rolleyes: ), I think I've finally grasped it.

you're taking the ****........right?

UTB
 
the blades said:
You talk a lot about people not being able to "work it out". And after reading several hundred of your posts, which I can't work out (I am very limited, I know :rolleyes: ), I think I've finally grasped it.

you're taking the ****........right?

UTB
NO, you are being told the truth, blunt and to the point.
All of this is obvious, but it is only obvious if you approach it from the correct angle,
because it is very easy to be misdirected. And when people are told the facts, bluntly,
as they are only accustomed to "knitting circles" they think the blunt truth with the gloves off
is more of the same to which they are accustomed.
 
TheBramble said:
Well done Socco. I have 15 female members of these boards and 78 males. All whom I mentor and support. And they adore me.

They have all seen me trade and know my setups and my exits and just how large a player I am.

They have seen me not only predict the movement (or atemporal flow in quasi-multi-dimensional space-time as we call it) and of price structures and schedules, but seen me compose a chart (including volume and OHLC) on a 5min bar basis a week ahead of the actual events. And across all instruments on all exchanges. Including commodities.

Of course, being discreet, and having the correct character and after exhaustive tests for satisfaction of the numerous and difficult tasks set them, nobody will ever know who they are as I have sworn them all to absolute secrecy on pain of excommunication from my elite cadre.

To the profane and grossly unaware bunch that pass for traders on these boards (scum - every man jack of them) it's almost as if they didn't really exist.

If you are mentoring everybody, why is it you are always asking questions ?

Surely if you are mentoring you should be giving answers, the correct answers,
and that includes the ones people do not like to hear, as is frequently the case on
these boards and elsewhere.

Kind Regards.
 
the blades said:
you're taking the ****........right?
FetteredChinos said:
i think he took it a while ago..
No, that was the Hemlock. :)

You have to bear in mind that Socrates is a goal-_scorer_. The Pope and Albert Camus, on the other hand, were both goal-_keepers_.

The things people believe in are usually just what they instinctively feel is right; the justifications and arguments are the least important part of the belief. That's why you can win an argument, prove people wrong, and _still_ they believe what they did in the first place: you've attacked the wrong thing.
 
Socco , have you got your irony filter set extremely high today?

perhaps up round near the nipple area..?
 
Yes, but it is frustrating ~ because all of it is obvious.

Since the Pope is brought into this, look what happened to poor Galileo, because he dared to say (and he could prove it) that the earth was a ball and not a disc, flat.

He got himself into terrible trouble with the Vatican.

He was accused of Heresy. Threatened with torture, excommunication.

He was shown the rack, and the braziers, and all the other horrible instruments of torture kept in the dungeon. This is not gossip. It is recorded history.

He was forced to recant, and was made to agree not to bring the subject up again.

He died of a broken heart. And the Vatican continued to persist that the earth was flat, until recent times.

Perhaps our learned friend The Bramble, who was educated by Jesuits, can enlighten us as to when this Ecclisiastical Decree was lifted in accordance with later Scientific proof, as he is just the chap to ask.

It just goes to show how dangerous it can be to disturb rigidly held belief structures against all reason.

ONe must learn from the lessons of history and not venture to prematurely reveal what must not be made available to everyone, particularly in a public forum, for veryone and his cat to learn and then misuse.
 
SOCRATES said:
If you are mentoring everybody, why is it you are always asking questions ?
I'm not mentoring everybody. Just 93.

Why do I still ask questions? I ask questions (a) because I know I don't know everything (b) to confirm/check my understanding and (c) as a teaching device for my disciples.

But for those who I do and can provide an answer, it is because I know more about what it is they are asking they they do. Obviously.


SOCRATES said:
Surely if you are mentoring you should be giving answers, the correct answers, and that includes the ones people do not like to hear, as is frequently the case on
these boards and elsewhere.
Which enables me to make an important distinction which will perhaps help you understand what it is you have not been understanding. Pay attention Socrates!

A coach - is someone who helps bring about significant (and usually positive) change in his charge. The coach need not know more about the subject matter than his charge. A golf coach is not necessarily a better player than the player he is coaching. He just knows how to get others to bring out the best in themselves and improve their performance.

A mentor
- does not necessarily have any people skills whatsoever (I'm not pointing a finger - but I am making a point :cool: ) and may have no idea how to bring about change in others, but, certainly does (or should!) know an awful lot more than their charge does about the subject matter.

A coach will help you to find the answers for yourself.

A mentor will give you the answers.

I've always felt that just being one or the other was woefully insufficient. A combination of the two seems a far more sensible approach and certainly leads to much deeper comprehension and far more quickly.

However, there is a difference between giving answers people are unlikely to appreciate - though necessary for them to hear - and giving no answers at all. Or worse, riddles that are intended imply the germ or a kernel of major if not critical importance and yet yield nothing on closer introspection/inspection.

High level waffle has its place and can be very useful in the correct context, but loses its potency when played endlessly with no horizon on which to fix one's sights.

If you wish to help others Bertie, in a way that meets their needs rather than yours (the mark of a true Teacher) you need to show them how to navigate and how to use the compass and sextant of trading - not suggest they experience the 'pleasure' of extended periods learning what it is like to travel without them.


SOCRATES said:
Kind Regards.
Indeed. And may your profits tell you everything you need to know.
 
FetteredChinos said:
Socco , have you got your irony filter set extremely high today?

perhaps up round near the nipple area..?
No it is not the irony filter ~ it is the release of knowledge filter that has to be kept firmly in its place.

Kind Regards.
 
TheBramble said:
I'm not mentoring everybody. Just 93.

Why do I still ask questions? I ask questions (a) because I know I don't know everything (b) to confirm/check my understanding and (c) as a teaching device for my disciples.

But for those who I do and can provide an answer, it is because I know more about what it is they are asking they they do. Obviously.


Which enables me to make an important distinction which will perhaps help you understand what it is you have not been understanding. Pay attention Socrates!

A coach - is someone who helps bring about significant (and usually positive) change in his charge. The coach need not know more about the subject matter than his charge. A golf coach is not necessarily a better player than the player he is coaching. He just knows how to get others to bring out the best in themselves and improve their performance.

A mentor - does not necessarily have any people skills whatsoever (I'm not pointing a finger - but I am making a point :cool: ) and may have no idea how to bring about change in others, but, certainly does (or should!) know an awful lot more than their charge does about the subject matter.

A coach will help you to find the answers for yourself.

A mentor will give you the answers.

I've always felt that just being one or the other was woefully insufficient. A combination of the two seems a far more sensible approach and certainly leads to much deeper comprehension and far more quickly.

However, there is a difference between giving answers people are unlikely to appreciate - though necessary for them to hear - and giving no answers at all. Or worse, riddles that are intended imply the germ or a kernel of major if not critical importance and yet yield nothing on closer introspection/inspection.

High level waffle has its place and can be very useful in the correct context, but loses its potency when played endlessly with no horizon on which to fix one's sights.

If you wish to help others Bertie, in a way that meets their needs rather than yours (the mark of a true Teacher) you need to show them how to navigate and how to use the compass and sextant of trading - not suggest they experience the 'pleasure' of extended periods learning what it is like to travel without them.


Indeed. And may your profits tell you everything you need to know.
Bramble, you are a charming fellow, you are funny.

My view is that if you have been able to master something in its entirety why persist in asking question after question, form thread to thread ? Surely it is not necessary.

You must get to a point at which there are no more questions to ask or anybody else to target.

Please do not target me with questions as you know my response in advance on this subject.

Kind Regards.
 
It is becoming very irritating to see so many promising threads on this board descend into frivolity, i hope the mods do something about it!!.
 
Well, we certainly don't want any frivolity do we Grubs! 'Specially if we've got to descend into it!

You could do something about it yourself - like not bother reading the thread?
 
SOCRATES said:
You must get to a point at which there are no more questions to ask or anybody else to target.
That's the point. When you get to a point where you believe you know everything, and there are no more questions to ask - you have 'closure' on a subject. And when you have closure - you can not learn anything new - even if there is something new to learn.

A dangerous condition and not one any true researcher or student of the markets (or any other discipline for that matter) would wish to be in.

In passing Bertie, can you find the last question I asked? I'll help you. It was directed to you specifically and it was about the conditions under which money moves or does not move from the Bond markets into stocks. You couldn't answer it except by asking a question yourself! HA H aHa ha ha ha .......(maniacal laughter with echo effect trailing off into dungeons)
 
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