Article What can I make in my first year trading?

Glenn

Experienced member
1,040 117
Tuffty said:
If you make money over the course of a year, how do you know it's not just luck?
I don't know anything Tuffty.
That's why I used phraseology such as "More likely.." and "Seems like..."

If you want the professional reply, then the answer would be in the form of questions. i.e.
1. Do you have a system which gives you an edge ?
2. Do you have the discipline and freedom from emotion in order to be able to use the system consistently ?

If Yes to both, then you are a trader.
If No to either, then you are (were) just lucky.

Glenn
 
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Trader333

Moderator
8,535 909
If you make money over the course of a year, how do you know it's not just luck?
It is highly unlikely that you could be consistently profitable by "luck" alone for 5 days a week and for 48 weeks of the year. If you can do this then by statistical norms alone, it is not down to luck.


Paul
 

cj12

Established member
597 6
What can I make in my first year trading?

lol nothing if you lucky if you break-even you have done well. Lets get real if you did make money lets say in you first 6 months as a new trader. I can 100% sure you. that you would give it back to the market. You would get over confident that you are Mr market wizard. It happen to me lost a ton. but thankfully I am making money now, but I would say one needs to experience loosing first You learn more that why, yes I know it harsh but so true.

sun
 

Roberto

Experienced member
1,069 11
gullible said:
SB companies will not allow you to 'win' £1/2M
You make it sound as if you believe it would be their money that you'd be "winning", gullible!

Like others here, I make my living that way and I can assure you it's not.

It's not like betting on horses, you know. :)

With statements of this kind all you're really demonstrating is your complete ignorance of how the spread-betting industry works.

Sorry to leap on you yet again, honestly. The _last_ thing I want is yet another tiresome argument about spread-betting, but it's really very, very annoying to the people here who make their living by spread-betting to see such prejudicial, ill-informed and untrue statements casually tossed out to misinform everyone else. It's not your gullibility that concerns me: it's the fact that newbies and others with little experience might actually believe you!
 

timsk

Legendary member
7,204 1,963
A quick scan through the posts on this thread leads me to conclude that 'What Can I make In My First Year Trading?' - is the wrong question. A more useful and appropriate question would be: 'What Can I Lose In My First Year Trading'? And the answer to that question is, of course, 'everything'. This may sound negative and unhelpful - but it isn't meant to be. My understanding (and belief) is that pro's always focus on what they stand to lose and never think about what they stand to gain. If you're a 'newbie' in your first year of trading, you would, IMO, be very well advised to focus on the former rather than the latter. I certainly wish I'd had this advise in my first year which, given what I've said, was loss making. Year two as well, come to that!

If there's one thing I've learnt over the past few years or so it's this: most of the 28,000+ T2W members start out by focusing on the £'s or $ signs when they start. Like moths to to a flame, they are seduced by the prospect of vast profits, but are totally naive and unprepared for the lions den that awaits them. If your new to this game, ignore the facts at your peril - 90% of participants lose!!! As a very young man in my first job straight out of college, I was taught the 'Six P's Rule'. Proper Planning Prevenents Piss Poor Performance. Before you back your ideas and beliefs about the markets with your hard earned dosh, make sure you have a proven and tested plan with an identifiable 'edge'.

Happy and profitable trading all. (This may be a tautological statement?!)
Tim.
 
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1lotwonder

Junior member
19 1
Roberto said:
You make it sound as if you believe it would be their money that you'd be "winning", gullible!

Like others here, I make my living that way and I can assure you it's not.
really!

from my short time here, i have noted that you often seem to ask quite a few basic questions for someone who earns a living from trading.

i think you must be one very talented individual indeed to make a living trading with such little awareness (never mind willingly paying a wider spread than necessary - something that no professional i have ever known would ever do irrespective of his/her time to profit horizon. reason - you are burning money unnecessarily - a trader manages money, he dont burn it or willingly give it to someone else).

maybe oscar wilde was right after all!

hats off to you mate (if its true).

imo the amount a trader will make in his 1st year is all down to the training and mentoring the individual receives - and of course his/her desire to learn. i have seen one young lady earn $2m in her first year with a $20k account. she then retired aged 24. i believe she opened a shop.

if there is no mentoring from a professional then your basically in for a much tougher ride. my hat goes off to those that do it by them selves. i would doubt that most are net positive at the end of year 1. if they are, then they have a bright future ahead if they keep their discipline and honesty.

i get the impression from reading these threads that most of you guys are at the retail end (like our muse roberto)

people generally have a bad habit of putting glass ceilings in front of themselves.

if you think 30% pa is a good result, then you will get no more. if you think 300% pa is a reasonable figure then you may get no more.

we cut our own keys to the door of destiny.
 

TheBramble

Legendary member
8,395 1,170
1lot - you sound like a coach I probably know.

I kind of agree with you. If a newbie can find a good coach, or even better a MENTOR then he/she will likely be blocks ahead of the other starters by 1st year end.

The trick is sorting the good from the mediocre and the downright awful.

On a separate note, of your few posts on t2w you do seem to make assumptions about individuals and nebulous groups without too much justification. If you're a real trader, you'll know what assumptions can do to your bottom line.

BTW - A "Glass Ceiling" is normally above you - not in front of you and it's more normally associated with inappropriate societal constraints/restrictions - not self-induced limitations.

There's a fine line between pedantry and accuracy and I don't particularly care which side of it I wobble from time to time. Better than being plain wrong.
 

TraderPattern

Well-known member
339 7
I suggest that a successful trader will be able to average a net of 1 to 1.5 units of risk per month, once the learning curve has been weathered. Any more than that would not be sustainable as a long-run average.

e.g. if your risk per trade is 2%, then an annualised return of 27% to 43% is feasible as a long run average. Much more than a unit of risk per month is not feasible for the simple reason that it would lead to billionaire status for too many home-based traders, and this is clearly not the case!

As long as the trader is well-capitalised, the above rates of return can result in a very nice living.
 

gullible

Active member
159 0
Hi Roberto,

Really? What is your agenda? Makes a nice change no mention of CS? Do you live in the real world? Have you not contributed to the thread ' winner' priced out of market?
Wha is the basis of your statement ' it's not like betting n a horse'?
Who said anything about whose money a punter wins? Are you on the defensive?
How do you know it is not their money? Have you inside and intimate knowledge of how SB companies make a fortune?

I happen to believe that we live in a democracy and unlike do not wish to impose my views ill informed or otherwise on unsuspecting innocent punters.

I also happen to believe that there is no merit in attempting to stifle debate.

good luck in you betting career.
 

Roberto

Experienced member
1,069 11
gullible said:
Who said anything about whose money a punter wins?
Nobody did. But you said "SB companies will not allow you to 'win' £1/2M" and then I said "You make it sound as if you believe it would be their money that you'd be "winning"." And I still say that now, because that is how you made it sound. You made it sound that way because that was what you mistakenly believed.

gullible said:
Are you on the defensive?
Not at all; simply repeating what I said before.

gullible said:
How do you know it is not their money?
If it were, they'd eventually close down the accounts of all consistent winners (instead of that being, as it is, a very great rarity) and it wouldn't even be possible to make a living that way at all. As it is, some SB companies have never done that at all, and the ones that have done it have normally done it only over "grey market" betting.

gullible said:
Have you inside and intimate knowledge of how SB companies make a fortune?
A little, yes. I have a friend from Cambridge who's now rather senior in the FSA department responsible for regulating them, and another friend who works for one of the SB companies (though actually not one of the ones I use myself as a punter).

gullible said:
I also happen to believe that there is no merit in attempting to stifle debate.
In this case, there is one merit, just to me: it avoids my blood pressure rising every time you offer some ill-informed and totally incorrect piece of prejudiced nonsense. :)

At least when you do so in the "Capital Spreads" thread and get firmly put down by Simon and by other readers, you sometimes have the grace to acknowledge inferentially (though somehow never openly!) that you didn't actually know what you're talking about.

gullible said:
good luck in you betting career.
Thank you. And good luck to you, too.

I have no interest in arguing with you, in public or in private, but every time I see one of your misleading and completely incorrect statements, I'll correct it.
 

gullible

Active member
159 0
Roberto,

Who is misleading whom? What is your agenda? Your blood pressure is your problem.
Will only respond, if you open up and make your agenda public.
illinformed keep your prejudices to yourslef?
 

Roberto

Experienced member
1,069 11
gullible said:
What is your agenda?
I don't understand your question.

My "agenda", as you put it, is simply to correct factual misinformation and prejudice.

If you mean "do I have any connection with any spread-betting company" the answer is emphatically no, not at all, other than being a client of two (actually three, but one account more or less disused now because their spreads aren't competitive enough for me).

Spread-betting isn't the only way I trade anyway, as you can see from my other posts. As you can see, I've posted here (and on other sites, where I'm usually known as "Robert M") over a huge range of trading subjects and over a long period of time.

I'm just a self-employed home-based trader, who happens to be a full-time one and makes his living this way.

Did that answer you? If you meant something else, then please clarify it and I'll answer with pleasure, because I dislike innuendo and insinuation! :)
 

Roberto

Experienced member
1,069 11
gullible said:
Your blood pressure is your problem.
I was trying to make a joke, or at least a light-hearted comment! I imagined wrongly that the smiley would clarify it. Sorry if it was a little too subtle for you.
 
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