Welcome all

[BBB]

Options/Grey1. Don't you think the vol move on SNDK looks to be spent - or am I confusing this with momentum?

I agree in general though, that SNDK will/did obviously move a lot quicker and a smaller size could have been traded to achieve the same profit. BUT, as you pointed out - there is more implied risk, so I would of thought that whichever one we chose, depends on our tolerance for risk?

If there is a 'correct' answer, I guess it would be to look elsewhere for stocks with vol between the two?

 

[Grey1]

BBB,

You are confusing this with momentum.. Volume means participation of players ,, Momentum could carry on with Zero Volume specially at open. . All the market makers need to put the price up is the news .. The volume might or might not follow later. Tricky hey

For example a $2 stock could open up @ 10 $ with zero volume.. This is the best way to create euphoria and get the naive traders in and few minutes after take the price back to 4$ depending on volume of trades..

Both SNDK and MSFT suffer from the same risk side effect.. One is too risky the other not too rewardy enough .. If i had to trade one I would certainly choose MSFT because this game is all about risk .. Just risk .. reward is the by product

 

[BBB]

Grey1 - By vol, I mean volatility - sorry for the confusion.

I totally agree about opening gaps. This often also occurs when the mm know there to be a lot of bids at the open. They open the market higher to trigger the stops. They then sell like mad into the bids until they dry up. Now the mm are heavily short, and retail are long, but there aren't any more bids to take the market further. I know you know how this situation ends up!

I've noticed this phenomena happens an awful lot in sideways markets (daily charts). The probabilities of the market closing back in the consolidation are extremely high. Good opportunity for the day trader.

I consider this a low risk trade due to the high probability of times we can make money with this knowledge. Risk can be further reduced if we enter as price passes back through the opening price.

I'm sure someone of your experience is already aware of this - the concept is as old as the markets them selves, yet it STILL works to this day, and doubtless will in the far future.

 

[Grey1]

BBB,

Thanks for clarification,,

Volatility is the deviation from a mean Momentum is simply the movement of price in some direction.

If you bear with me I will discuss the various definitions for volatility as well as different ways of forecasting the future volatility .. I will cut the junk and abstract stuff as much as I can and will only discuss issues which we can easily be remembered, adopted and programed into a mechanical systems

 

[DaveGos]

Grey1

I take it then that volatility must regress to the mean.

 

[Grey1]

Dave,

Excellent point... When instruments gets volatile , then one would expect a period of low volatility to follow .. This is the way Bollinger bands work.. when the bands come to gether ( low volatility ) one would expect a break out ( high volatility ) in some direction.

regards

 

[TheBramble]

Momentum/Volume/Volatility

Just so I can get my head around what these really mean to experienced traders rather than textbook definitions:-

Momentum - is speed or rate of price change? Either due to MM play of volume-induced?

Volume - pure and simple - the number of shared being traded.

Volatility - a widening of the range between highs and lows with an expectation (?) of regression to the mean momentum?

 

[Grey1]

Bramble,

All definitions correct with slight modification. Volatility is the study of the Frequency of the range expansion as well as the range itself.. ( SD from the mean ) with in a certain time frame.


The mean reversion is also correct.. As a single rule. instruments go through a cycle of high volatility followed by low volatile period.. There are not many rules one could rely upon in the market ,,, The above rule is exception ..

 

[ianp]

Hi Grey1 and all,

Thanks for letting me in.

I was away last week and only heard about this board
today.

It looks good I have been looking at Vwap trading for a
couple of months , so it will be good to bounce around
some ideas..

Ian

 

[darrenf]

Thanks for the invite grey1.

I am not a full time trader and do not (yet) trade for a living. However, I take trading very seriously and treat it as a business venture with the aim of eventually turning it from part time to full time.

I am very interested in money/ risk management and I have come to realise that the way a trade is managed is a very important key to the overall profitability of a trading methodology. These are the aspects of my trading which I wish to develop.

I may not appear to contribute too much as I am unable to constantly monitor t2w due to other commitments. But I will definately be here and will contribute when I can.

Darren

 

[FetteredChinos]

As per the standard form on this thread,

id like to thank Grey1 for the invite. I was always curious as to what went on in this private forum. I shall put my gardening gloves and waders on, and go in with an open mind.

thanks again.

FC

 

[Bigbusiness]

And thanks for letting me in as well. I have been a bit busy the past few weeks but I hope to spend some time browsing these boards and I hope to contribute a few of my own ideas.

 

[BBB]

LOL...

Bl**dy 'ell guv, it's like Picadilly Circus in 'ere innit mate!

 

[FetteredChinos]

I quite like the idea of having a revolving door installed... :cheesy:

 

[LevII]

I was always curious as to what went on in this private forum.

FetteredChinos,

On this forum you will find the most selfeless person in Grey1 you will come accross anywhere either on the internet or otherwise. He is unstinting in his willingness, perhaps eagerness, to assist others, myself included, and I for one am greatly indebted to and applaud him.

There are others. I am particularly grateful to Paul (333) who also gives the benefit of his experience unselfishlessly to help others.

I hope you enjoy yourself and derive as much benefit as I have here.

I hope soon to be able to make a worthwhile contribution myself.

Regards.

LII

 

[BBB]

2nd that.

 

[TheBramble]

At the risk of turning this into an Oscar Acceptance speech, I'll 3rd that.

Hats off to the guys mentioned above.

 

[china white]

pleasure hvng bn invited. truly honoured. Grey1, many thx! now lets make some serious dosh!

 

[triplepack]

Grey,
Thanks for the invite , I wondered where all the interesting threads had gone (lol).
I am eneavouring to trade the Naz. I've traded over the years like most people either ending up flat or losing. After drilling down into the varied ways of trading I feel that intraday Nasdaq trading suits my personality and expectations.
Having recognised this I visited Alan (Naz) and learnt (I hope ) the major failings in my approach/psyche.
That is ,greed and trade management. Alan put me right .
Since then, allbeit papertrading, I feel confident enough with the outcome to set up a direct access account with tradestation.
A little more papertrading learning the platform and slow, small lot trading so I dont blow my account or confidence ,I hope to develop my niche.
In doing so I hope I can learn from and contribute to this forum.

I look forward to some interesting posts.

Triplepack

 

[china white]

Grey what is that TT chat room I c mentioned here and there? thx