Weinstein Trading and Fading

Robert Weinstein said:
Carlos,

I hope you base your trading on more information than you based me and my thread on. (I mean this is a positive and not rude way as you will see as you read more)

I have a list on my blog of the top ten must read books and one of them is called "the black swan" by Nassim Taleb. He has another book that I would recommend to you sir. Its called "Fooled by Randomness"

Your comments about my trading including the "Thank God for the then Bull market" post and others show how yourself and others can come to conclusions with a very small sample size of information. Then when confronted by data that states an opposite situation may be the case (another persons post that in fact I am a good trader) you seemed surprised as your mind had been made up(again based on your posts). This book will help you understand that we can often come to make bad choices based on what we think is a sound and reasonable conclusion.

You just simply can not know based on the few posts how good or bad I am. Time will tell and only if you follow the thread for a long time can you have enough of a sample size to make a sound judgment.

If you take this post to heart and hopefully others as well see the connection you will leave having read and learned about sample size, a good book to read and maybe even more.

By the way, I looked but did not see your journal. I would guess I simply missed it as I only did a quick search. May I have you point it out?
Click to expand...

Thank you for your wishes. To calm you, yes I do base my trading on "edges", so don't worry. I even know the books (y)

To be honest, I just wanted to point you into a fruitful and successful direction.
You seem to be self-centered to be a really good trader. And, sorry for that, why should I first wait to have a reasonable sample of your trades, if I see major wrong doings within the first posts?

Look at your profile page. You say, you have NO EXPERIENCE and trade in your SPARE TIME. Could you, if you care, provide us with information about you? Could it be your fault, that I come to "wrong" conclusions? ;)


Regarding your blog, I don't have an idea, that you have one, so start the pointing, Sir.

To your question about my Journal. I don't publish my trades. Never wanted, never said I would.

All the information which I want to be public, you find in my profile and in my posts as in the "introduce yourself" one .

Take care !
Carlos
 
Trading today started out kinda rough as my Tradestation software gave me problems.

I started it up about 15 mins before the open and the Tradestion software just kept “loading” and “loading” so that didnt help me start out the day on the right foot.

I ended up buying more ram for my trading computer and a solid state hard drive that I will try out in the Tradestation machine. If the solid state drive improves performance I will probably replace it in the trading computer as well.

USO feel more than I would have liked today. The March 25 puts I have written are profitable right now but the premium of 65 cents is still high.

I had a few trades today. Mostly they were good. I ended up taking a small hit with EAT so that I could be flat with it at the end of the day. - 46

SGR H, B6, plus near the end of the day I scalped some as well. + 512

PENN B6, H, + 95

PCS discrectionary, +258

ORLY, discrectionary + 215

NOV discrectionary +102

+ 1138 Day

+ 3844 Week

- 13073 Month

~ 63K shares
 
DaxDestroyer said:
Thank you for your wishes. To calm you, yes I do base my trading on "edges", so don't worry. I even know the books (y)

To be honest, I just wanted to point you into a fruitful and successful direction.
You seem to be self-centered to be a really good trader. And, sorry for that, why should I first wait to have a reasonable sample of your trades, if I see major wrong doings within the first posts?

Look at your profile page. You say, you have NO EXPERIENCE and trade in your SPARE TIME. Could you, if you care, provide us with information about you? Could it be your fault, that I come to "wrong" conclusions? ;)


Regarding your blog, I don't have an idea, that you have one, so start the pointing, Sir.

To your question about my Journal. I don't publish my trades. Never wanted, never said I would.

All the information which I want to be public, you find in my profile and in my posts as in the "introduce yourself" one .

Take care !
Carlos
Click to expand...

Hello Carlos,

Thank you for pointing out the profile page. I guess I missed it.

I didn't post my blog as I did not want to appear to be spamming the board. If you take my name and put a dot com after it you are most welcome to take a look and/or comment at the blog.

Self centered?? your the guy with the name "Destroyer" in it LOL

I did take a look at your profile since you were kind enough to point it out. It appears we share some common elements. I have two kids as well and yours looks very lovely and nice.

I agree with you about needing discipline in this biz !!

Thanks again for pointing out the profile.

RW
 
Robert Weinstein said:
Hello Carlos,

Thank you for pointing out the profile page. I guess I missed it.

I didn't post my blog as I did not want to appear to be spamming the board. If you take my name and put a dot com after it you are most welcome to take a look and/or comment at the blog.

Self centered?? your the guy with the name "Destroyer" in it LOL

I did take a look at your profile since you were kind enough to point it out. It appears we share some common elements. I have two kids as well and yours looks very lovely and nice.

I agree with you about needing discipline in this biz !!

Thanks again for pointing out the profile.

RW
Click to expand...

Funny nick does not mean stupid guy ;)
Thank you for your nice words.
Had a look on your blog. I don't think, it is spamming, when you put that on your profile page.

Have a nice and successful day!
 
I was off to a great start to what could have been a super day but I let it slip away…

Today was one of those days that I just could not execute according to plan.

MW tore me apart but that was only after I had booked some gains and was in the green by about 900. I had bids to cover under 12 in the 11.9x range as I thought it would fall back to under 12. It didn’t and seeing that it was up about 21% I kept fading the moves up which did not stop. I did scalp it back and forth somewhat but with limited success as it never retraced back enough for me to cover much. I could get punished again tomorrow as I did not cover before the close. The SnP has been up three days in a row and has moved up strongly in the past days as well as MW has moved up very strongly in the past three days. I believe that will offer a pullback of some size in MW. We will soon enough find out how well that works out. While MW was painful today I did study it for future reference and will be able to take advantage of new ideas as a result. - 3019

I had another losing trade today that was somewhat in the money for me but just never really worked out well. I covered most of it (two cents from the HOD ). The rest will hold until tomorrow as well. - 341

Rest of my trades had gains and where pretty much standard as to the setups they gave.

WFMI H, B6, + 698

SU B6(late) + 142

SFD GU, + 78

NTRS H, B6, +14

EAT closed out from yesterday from an overcover of 100 shares, + 11

CTRP H, B6, + 166

CERN H, B6, + 70

BKE H, B6, + 884

- 1291 Day

+2553 Week

- 14364 Month

~ 56K shares
 
It was another punishing day of being short MW

MW managed to move higher again today. I did trade it back and forth which accounts for the booked loss and also raised my cost basis. I covered more than I shorted by about 5k shares as I lowered the risk in this trade. IB at one point was stating that they did not have shares available to short MW. This lasted for about half an hour but did not effect me as I did not want to short during that period. Today marks the fifth day in a row higher and its higher by over 40 % from the open four days ago. Before this trade I felt like I would end the month positive but that goal appears to be fading away. - 4297

I did have some good trades today.

I closed out AU in pre-market trading. + 110

SGP, H, B6+(late), This was closed early as to get out before the close. + 136

PALM, news, discretionary, scalp, + 25

CTRP B6, H +2172

- 4297 Day

-1744 Week

- 18661 Month

~ 26K shares
 
I woke up this morning with 104 temp and that was not the worst thing today

I did have a small gain yesterday actually. About $35 as I only had one small trade as I was driving home.

I came back from spring break weekend at a waterpark. I guess it wasnt that great for me as I started to feel bad last night and was feeling like total crap by the time I was supposed to be in the office.

MW a stock that I should not be short moved up against me and Idid the best I could to trade out of it but it was not going to happen as it kept moving to far against me. Another lesson learned about new setups.One good thing is I expect to be posting gains for a while. - 22240

I did have some small gains but the market was so strong today I brought my profit targets in. My screener was lit up at either a record number of stocks to trade or very close to it.

JCG H, B6, + 168

JACK H, B6, +188

GES H, B6, +183

- 21699 Day

- 22936 Week

- 41597 Month

~ 33K
 
Robert Weinstein said:
Hi Carlos,

Thanks for asking.

Actually sick as a dog. I was gone for an extended weekend with my family at a waterpark

Respectfully,

Bob
Click to expand...


I hope, you get better soon!


Robert Weinstein said:
I woke up this morning with 104 temp and that was not the worst thing today

I did have a small gain yesterday actually. About $35 as I only had one small trade as I was driving home.

I came back from spring break weekend at a waterpark. I guess it wasnt that great for me as I started to feel bad last night and was feeling like total crap by the time I was supposed to be in the office.

MW a stock that I should not be short moved up against me and Idid the best I could to trade out of it but it was not going to happen as it kept moving to far against me. Another lesson learned about new setups.One good thing is I expect to be posting gains for a while. - 22240

I did have some small gains but the market was so strong today I brought my profit targets in. My screener was lit up at either a record number of stocks to trade or very close to it.

JCG H, B6, + 168

JACK H, B6, +188

GES H, B6, +183

- 21699 Day

- 22936 Week

- 41597 Month

~ 33K
Click to expand...


I hope, again, you get better soon, Robert. Let me tell you just 2 things from one "old father" to the other. Without any hostility! And do me a favor to think about both after your illness.

1. One of my rules is: If anything is "wrong" with myself (sickness, illness, problems with children or wife), I don't trade! Why? Distraction kills my ability to produce money.

2. For each trade setup I dedicate the same amount of money. Not only the trade size, but more importantly the size of the risk is predetermined. This makes sure, that NO LOSS can get out of hand whatever happens. Part of this set of rules is that I never carry over a position which is "in the RED". Only positions showing a profit are carried over to the next day.


As you seemingly have some decent setups, but at times seem to self-destroy your efforts, think about it (and the effect on your P&L). IMHO if you change that part of your trading and this was the reason of my former critical comments, your P&L will skyrocket and you and your family will smile all the way! Even with a cold ;)

Take care!

Cheers Carlos
 
Trading results 3/19/09

It was very difficult to come into the office today as I feel worse today than I did yesterday.

Trading and even this blog entry is a chore as I feel horrible. I would have just a soon stayed home but seeing premarket action I really thought some stocks would end up over bought and I was not let down. I was getting so many signals that I shut down the weaker signal generator so I could focus on the best trades.

RS H, B6, + 208

CTAS B6, H, + 1060

BVN H, B6, + 48 (exited early)

BKS H, B6, + 1048

FOSL B6, H,

+ 2609 Day

- 20327 Week

- 38988 Month

~ 12K shares
 
Trading results 3/20/09

slow day and I wish I would have stayed home as I still feel sick.

After yesterday I thought the market would have more follow through and I would be able to do more trading. Two hours into the trading day and that does not appear to be the case.

As its options expiration day I am able to sell more calls against GE and LVS that I own.

sold 13 LVS Jun 5 calls at .40 each

sold5 GE Jun 13 Calls at .46 each

options exp out of the money gains today.

USO 25 covered + 114

LVS 5 call + 164

GE 14 Call + 163

USO March 25 Put + 596

+ 1037 Day

- 19290 Week

- 37951 Month
 
Trading results 3/23/09

First day back in the office without feeling totally dead.

I was still dragging a bit as I came into the office but much better than I was last week. The day ended with the dow surging up about 500 points to close out the day. Chat room was highly active today with lots of ideas being shared.

I started out the day on the wrong foot and shorted PCZ which turned into a loser. Holding longer would have turned it into a winner but the risk didn’t seem worth it. - 782

RHT, H, B6+ was a good trade + 2547

NFLX is starting to cross over into overbought longer term so I shorted 4 APR 47.50 calls @ .75 each.

shorted into the close

NAV H,

WDR H, B6+

+ 1765 Day / Week

- 36186 Month

~ 24K shares
 
I had two carry overs from yesterdays monster close.

WDR and PVH where both shorted near the close as they developed into overbought along with the market going crazy at the end I thought we may have a pull back in the open for today. I was not disappointed.

WDR + 533

NAV + 1241

I was hoping after the recent rally and after yesterdays gains that I might see some signals to trade today. This bear market has really punished my LVS and GE holdings. I did get some and they started out early.

AGN H, B6, B6+, One of the best trades this month. Several people in the chat room made some nice coin with this one today. + 4154

CCL H, B6, + 420

PVH H, B6, + 1072

WFMI H, + 71

HSP H, B6+,

Today is my best day of the year and one of the top days for me as a trader.

+ 10158 Day

+ 11923 Week

- 26028 Month

~40k Shares
 
DaxDestroyer said:
I hope, you get better soon!

I hope, again, you get better soon, Robert. Let me tell you just 2 things from one "old father" to the other. Without any hostility! And do me a favor to think about both after your illness.

1. One of my rules is: If anything is "wrong" with myself (sickness, illness, problems with children or wife), I don't trade! Why? Distraction kills my ability to produce money.

2. For each trade setup I dedicate the same amount of money. Not only the trade size, but more importantly the size of the risk is predetermined. This makes sure, that NO LOSS can get out of hand whatever happens. Part of this set of rules is that I never carry over a position which is "in the RED". Only positions showing a profit are carried over to the next day.


As you seemingly have some decent setups, but at times seem to self-destroy your efforts, think about it (and the effect on your P&L). IMHO if you change that part of your trading and this was the reason of my former critical comments, your P&L will skyrocket and you and your family will smile all the way! Even with a cold ;)

Take care!

Cheers Carlos
Click to expand...

Hello Carlos,

Thanks for your well wishes and while replying has been on my mind for a few days I been either trading or in bed so I am just now getting caught back up. Still not fully feeling well yet but at least being sick is no longer stopping me from most things. No hostility was detected at all and I think its great that your sharing your thoughts.

Thanks for taking the time to think about and post about my 'stupid' trades and I agree with you thats its good advice. While sick I did give up all discretionary trading and only executed based on my standard mechanical system.

Both my entries and exits for the most part on my standard trades require very little (none) in thought process so I felt that if I limited myself to only that type of trading I would be fine. As it turns out that is about all I was able to do as I spent much of the day with my head down resting.

I have to agree that for most traders your second rule is a must have as well. Its too bad I allowed MW to run me over for as much as it did. Surely was not needed as I could have felt just as bad with half the loss......LOL
MW is a case of backtesting where there simply was nothing to be found in terms of like actions. The really sad thing is at one point it was not only a winner but a nice winner too.

This month sadly will most likely go down as a loser but I will continue to improve my trading and stick closer to the setups that I have as they work well when they happen. Its just hard to find over bought stocks ready to drop in a bear market......

Respectfully,

Robert
 
Robert Weinstein said:
Hello Carlos,

Thanks for your well wishes and while replying has been on my mind for a few days I been either trading or in bed so I am just now getting caught back up. Still not fully feeling well yet but at least being sick is no longer stopping me from most things. No hostility was detected at all and I think its great that your sharing your thoughts.

Thanks for taking the time to think about and post about my 'stupid' trades and I agree with you thats its good advice. While sick I did give up all discretionary trading and only executed based on my standard mechanical system.

Both my entries and exits for the most part on my standard trades require very little (none) in thought process so I felt that if I limited myself to only that type of trading I would be fine. As it turns out that is about all I was able to do as I spent much of the day with my head down resting.

I have to agree that for most traders your second rule is a must have as well. Its too bad I allowed MW to run me over for as much as it did. Surely was not needed as I could have felt just as bad with half the loss......LOL
MW is a case of backtesting where there simply was nothing to be found in terms of like actions. The really sad thing is at one point it was not only a winner but a nice winner too.

This month sadly will most likely go down as a loser but I will continue to improve my trading and stick closer to the setups that I have as they work well when they happen. Its just hard to find over bought stocks ready to drop in a bear market......

Respectfully,

Robert
Click to expand...



Best of luck for the next month ... be careful though the next days as quarter end is "manipulation time".

Cheers Carlos
 
After a day like yesterday how does one go about repeating it?

Well I wasn’t able to repeat it as a day but I did have a couple of really nice trades that brought me along really nicely.

NFLX, the stock that I just wrote a small amount of calls with found the down button today. The options I wrote for 75 cents are now worth 30.

GE also found the lower button after being higher for the open. I am glad to see that it did not fall under 10 again but it came close and we still have a half an hour to trade as I write this.

I spent some time today looking for Fleetwood mac tickets after finding out they are touring again. I think it would be great to see them again. Not sure I am ready to drop 4K to get front and center but for about 500 you can get center and a few rows back on stub hub. Now I have to decide if I am that big of a musical buff to spend that kind of money on a concert. choices choices

Trading went well today

WFR H, B6, + 1477

WFMI H, B6, + 2005

KBH H, B6, + 204

+ 3687 Day

+ 15610 Week

- 22341 Month

~ 15K Shares
 
It was a busy day in the openin today and with a lot of follow through for the day.

I didn’t have any carry overs from yesterday but with the market as strong as its been I was really excited to get back in the office to see what the day might bring. I started out right away with looking at MYGN. I looked at it yesterday and today in pre market the stock did a two for one split. This as usually sent the stock price much higher and opened gap up which I traded. This was the first Gap up signal that I took this week and I kept the size small. I also did not chase the price down as I entered in with one lost that was partially filled at 277 shares.

The rest of the day was filled getting signal after signal only to find that most were not qualified. Some where and those that where paid off nicely if I was able to short it. One that I was not able to short but another in the chat room was able to short was CTRP. A gain of about 40 cents was made which happened in under an hour.

MYGN GU, + 323

BBY GU, + 1211

FSLR, H B6, + 1351

GVA B6 (unqual) + 1787

HP H, B6+, +157

RVBD B6 (unqual) + 302

TNB B6 (unqual) out early + 58

WFR H, B6, + 2861

ALKS B6, H, (unqual) + 679

+ 8735 Day

+ 24345 Week

- 13606 Month

~ 83K Shares
 
Three days to go in the month and I actually can see the break even mark. That in itself is something a week ago I did not think would be possible.

With the final trading day of the week I was able to make some nice gains. I did not have the herculean gains of some of the days this week but a very respectable showing none the less. I traded WAT back and forth for over 90 minutes today and it took me for quite the ride. In the end the bronco broke and I closed it out with a nice gain.

Still looked for Fleetwood Mac tickets. Now my focus is the Las Vegas show. Looks like I will need to get at least two tickets and I know of no one that cares that much about Fleetwood to want to share in premium tickets. I just can’t see going to a concert and not being right up there in front and center.

This week is the best week I have had this year and maybe one of the best ever.

WAT H, + 2651

NVLS discretionary, + 910

LTM H, + 172

+ 3734 Day

+ 28079 Week

-9872 Month

~ 25K Shares
 
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