Wave theory with a cup of coffee

farhang

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Hello every one....
Here I am going to share my real time trades based on wave theory....

the reason I named the thread with this title (wave theory with a cup of coffee) was only highlighting this simple and also vital principle that we are trading for living not living for trading which always remind me of one of the first books I used to read when I started analysing and trading. (Trading for a Living By Alexander Elder). I actually enjoy of a fresh brewed coffee, and I try to have it when ever I am doing my daily trading activities, this will remind me of that so called Elder's Book name.

I started trading and analysing (and actually learning how to do them) since five years ago, and with all hopes and wishes with all its hardship and suffering caused by its stresses and worries. I finally found that if there is a way of success in this career it should have these specifications.

1- first of all, it shouldn't be time consuming
2- it should be based on a profound conceptual analysis
3- we should try to trade in a set and forget way(at least this is true for me)

and you know why? let me explain it,
1- it shouldn't be time consuming because, this market is a multi dimension thing, with all fear and greed and buy and sell orders which are made by human feelings and there are always different feeling in different part of society... that's why I think the more you ponder on the chart the more you get caught up in overwhelming process of making different decision which finally you'll find them paradoxical.
Simplicity means doing something in an easy way, instead of attempting and struggling.
and besides, Trading is meant to be a way of freedom,(at least we are aiming for it)

2- it should be based on a profound and reliable concept. we all know that one of the main characters of this market is its unpredictability, but it doesn't mean we can not find any order in this market. ELLIOTTWAVE theory and Generally conception of wave analysis is one of the most powerful tools in technical analysing. I am not single minded that believe every move in market is based on elliottwave , but I really think we can use this theory at least for some point which we can easily see the famous corrective patterns. I really believe that if we want to have a good analysis and a good trade set-up we've got to have three satisfied criteria which are, pattern, price and time...I am not meant to describe all these things here and you can definitely find good resources about wave theory.

3- we should try to trade in a set and forget way. why? because I have found through these years of trading how destructive it is when you just monitor your trade to find out whether it's going to be a win trade or lose one. being attached to our trades is like a poison for this profession, I have passed all these stages and I remember how a loose position could affect your whole strategy and makes you so sceptical to your own strategy, while it probably was only a lose trade among other routine trades. especially when you have a good strategy based on a powerful principle and good risk/reward ratio, then just by being sceptical, just by being affected of pressure of stresses which have been on you by monitoring a loose trade, you will only ruin all your profession of being a good trader.

anyhow, I'd rather attaching to my cup of coffee than a trade which I have no control on it after being triggered, the only reason that we may want to monitor our trade is for trailing stop, which I think even for that reason we should write a code or a program, to do this job automatically.

here I am going to put some of my trade and analysis which are based on wave theory, meanwhile I will try to explain my reasons for those positions.

I usually put my trades about 10 to 12 GMT and sometimes I put a morning comment at around 6:30 to 7:30 GMT, then I just leave them and let them do what ever they want to do, cause I have more important things to do

because I put a name of cup of coffee, sometimes I will add something else to my posts, small poem or a link to a music or anything which free our mind for a while and point us in the direction of life.

Good luck
Amir Farhang
 
Before starting today's trade potentiality, I prefer to share an article about being happy.
You can read this article here: http://www.dailygood.org/more.php?n=4023 for those who don’t have enough time to read it I just summarise it here cause I really think it was worthwhile.

10 Things Science Says Will Make You Happy



How does it sound? Well always smile, always have goals, and take initiative, devalues money… I know it's hard but give away, say thank you (you're welcome) avoid comparisons, make friends, exercise and savour every moment of your life.
 

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All right.
For the beginning of this week I couldn’t find a clear situation. I put some of them here but I am not sure if I am going to set the orders or not, I prefer to wait and see whether it fulfils all criteria or not.
The first chart is GBPAUD which I really need to see how market unfolds. Because it is not only having a retracement about 61.8%, also it is important to have a proper corrective pattern .
So I am not going to set the order now.
 

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Another chart is GBPCHF which is completely a raw Idea.
Because I am not sure whether the highest point of 1 or A wave is formed or not.
 

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Same similar situation is being formed on USDCHF which again I will be waiting for pattern and time and price.
 

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The only position which I think is ready to set my first order is NZDUSD


I am going to put a sell limit on 0.7368 and stop and target will be 0.7416 and 0.7261 respectively.
 

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Morning

Like I said yesterday, apart from the USDNZD position which is now activated, we should wait until now to see if market still reliable to set the orders or not.

Unfortunately with the big gap, made on most of the markets I can not consider a trade any more on GBPAUD.
Also in GBPCHF chart, I still don’t have a reliable corrective pattern.
The only chart that I can trade on it is USDCHF

34oenly.gif


Buy limit@ 0.9810(ASK) Stop@ 0.9776 Target@ 0.9895

Also I am going to trail my NZDUSD when it gets to the 23.6% level (I explain this method before)

Good Luck.
 
Hello every one…

Today I have got only one position, which is NZDUSD, both USDCHF and
GBPCHF charts didn’t fulfill trade criteria which I always consider them on my positions.
Like I said before three things should be considered which are time, price and patterns.
I am going to write some small notes about them, because I really think these three factors should be taken serious.

Anyway, I would like to share one of the Churchill's words with you, which I really think is worthy to take in.
"Continuous effort - not strength or intelligence - is the key to unlocking our potential."

All right, for tonight I am looking forward to a position which is going to be made on AUDUSD, but actually I have to wait until tomorrow morning.
The other position which I hope become activated is on OIL
fus5xx.gif

Sell limit@ 76.70 Stop@ 77.17 Target@ 75.49
There is a possibility that this market is going to fall straightly from here, because it's already touched the 61.8% level, and actually it seems we have a Zigzag correction, but Time matters as well.
 
Hello again

I have two open trades, NZDUSD which apparently is going to hit stop level and the other one is USOIL which is in profit now, but still I don’t have a good feeling about it.
But that's all right, because we have to understand that, that's how trading is.

Anyway, I found s situation on GBPJPY chart.

wtfy1u.gif


As you see in the chart, I expect it to rise toward the highlighted area which is about 61.8% retracement of the recent bearish wave. I have to check this chart in the morning for final check. Especially because during next minutes we are going to have one of the most important news of JPY which is Tankan Manufacturing Index.

Another trade opportunity is being made on GBPUSD, the only thing about this chart is that we have to wait until a proper corrective pattern emerges, which means something like gray lines, I drew on the chart takes place.
2ic4k08.gif

Again for this position I am going to check it, tomorrow morning.
 
Morning!

Between two situation, I mentioned last night GBPUSD could not make the expected pattern, even though I put an order on this chart with half risk I usually put on my orders.
Sell @ 1.5825 Stop@ 1.5890 Target@ 1.5685
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On GBPJPY things are different and I think we can set our order
Sell limit@ 133.100 Stop@ 13375 Target@ 131.70
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Hi

Apparently my NZDUSD position is not going to determine which way
It decided to take.
Also my Oil position passed the 23.6% retracement of 1 or A wave and so I change the stop to the entry point and I have exited without loss.

The GBPUSD is still in profit and I am going to change the stop level to the entry point as soon as it passes the 23.6% retracement level of 1 or A wave.

The GBPJPY couldn’t fulfill our trade set-up rules and it passed the 1 or A wave before retracing that sufficiently.

I couldn’t find any new position in my charts, so that's all for today and I am going to carry on with my NZDUSD and GBPUSD positions.
 
Hello….

I was just reading a really touching sentence of Marilyn vos Savant
Columnist, Author and Lecturer, who said:
"There's plenty of intelligence in the world, but the courage to do things differently is in short supply."

Well I think it's through, lots of people, especially in this modern era are really intelligent, but unfortunately most of us are followers, aren't we? Yes, it is risky, so what…we all do risky things, don’t we. So as black eye pee sang it , "lets do it" what ever you have in your mind… try to do it, plan it and prioritise all details. Get yourself together and put all fears and excuses behind.

By the way, I am going to holyday for two weeks and I won't be able to update my daily notes during these two weeks. I will finish this week tomorrow with probably a final report on Saturday.

All right, our GBPUSD position stopped. I should have trail it when it get to the 23.6% level, but sometimes I am really stubborn, and it's not good at all. Luckily I'd just risked 1% on this position which I mentioned the other day.
Our USDNZD is still open. Not a good week, but we should get used to it, that's how trading is… bad days and then happy days. However I am optimistic about this NZDUSD position.

I can see some opportunities are emerging and I have to get ready for them, the only thing for me is probably I can not monitor them for the next week.

The first chart is EURCAD, which we can set our order like this chart:
Sell limit@ 1.4050 Stop@ 1.4100 Target@ 1.3940
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Another trade which is already activated is on gold
Sell@ 1308.40 Stop@ 1315.80 Target@ 1293.00
2070piq.gif


There are some other opportunities which are being made but I have to wait till tomorrow for final check, charts like GBPUSD, AUDUSD, CADCHF, which I will check them tomorrow morning.

Also USDSEK is making a similar situation, the only reason I can not set my order on it is the pattern of correction which I don’t have a good feeling about it, I prefer it to goes something like the lines I drew on my chart then I will entre this position.
33ac660.gif
 
Morning.


Unfortunately I missed my trade on AUDUSD, which I marked out last night as one of my opportunities. I should have waken up sooner!

5x8sn8.gif


We have some other opportunities but I think I will not be able to manage them, due to my vacation, but anyway I am going to show these charts here.

First of all GBPCAD

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And then CADCHF

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Unfortunately... my trades on Friday stopped.... and I had a week with four stop loss which wasn't a good week. however I had worse than this before....
any way I believe in my strategy and I am going to continue this thread after my two weeks holiday on Sunday November 17th,
the whole month of september wasnt too bad and I had 7 trade in profit and seven trades in loss. but according to the rules of this forum I can only claim on my last week trades which wasn't so good.
any way, see you next two weeks
 
Hello again.


I have decided to add some analysis about some major markets. These analysis will be based on wave theory and I will try to show every thing on the chart.
I will try to put all these analysis in a regular basis in the website.

Anyway, after two weeks being off the job, now it is a little hard to get back on track. But I am trying to peace together what we have had during last two weeks and find some new trade set-up for this new week.

The first chart is EURUSD.

2gydstv.gif


I think it is a little early to put orders now, I am going to check the chart tomorrow morning.



Another situation which seems is being formed now is on EURNZD chart:

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Also on USDSEK which I will check it again tomorrow morning for last decision.

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And finally AUDUSD:

etcw1g.gif


Any way, it seems we are going to have to check all these markets tomorrow morning.

Good luck
 
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