Walid Salah Eldin's Market Analysis
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Walid Salah Eldin
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it could be under the oil prices depreciation
Walid Salah Eldin
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17th July 2017 - The lower inflation pressure could dampen the odds of Fed's tighteni
The weaker than expected inflation pressure in US could weigh down on the interest rate outlook driving the greenback down across the broad.
After June US CPI release has shown yearly rising by only 1.6%, while the consensus was referring to rising by 1.7%, after surging by 1.9% in May.
June US Retail sales figure came also disappointing showing monthly decreasing by 0.2%, while the median forecast was referring to increasing by 0.1%, after falling by 0.3% in May had been revised to be by only 0.1%.
The preliminary release of July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came also down to 93.1, while the market was waiting for easing down to 95 only, after 95.1 in June to spur worries about the consuming spending strength in US.
The lower interest rate outlook in US has already started to dominate the market sentiment earlier last week.
After The Fed's Chair Janet Yellen's signal that the Federal Reserve won’t be in rush to tighten monetary policy in her congressional testimony, while the prices are facing downside pressure because of structural causes.
She said also that the monetary policy has become close to normal lowering the roof of the market expectations.
Yellen refrained also from referring to a certain time of triggering unwinding of
The Fed's $4.5 trillion balance sheet.
After the committee mentioned in its statement following last Jun. 15 meeting that it is currently expecting to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year, as the economy evolves broadly as anticipated.
The committee had started to prepare the markets for such waited action in the previous meetings of it, before it managed finally to set on Jun 15 meeting its unwinding plan details for normalizing its balance sheet but without determining of the starting date of this action.
The Fed announced that the initial cap will be set at $10 billion a month "$6 billion from Treasuries and $4 billion from mortgage-backed securities", before rising every three months by this same scale until the caps reach $30 billion of US treasuries and $20 billion of MBS.
The US treasuries yields have been negatively impacted by this lower interest rate outlook, while Dow Jones and S&P 500 could keep their pace of recording new all time highs, amid higher earnings reports of the second quarter and energy prices rebounding tries.
The energy prices rebounding could boost the Canadian dollar to keep its upside momentum, as the Canadian economy depends on exporting commodities and crude oil especially to US.
USDCAD is now below 1.2654 supporting level which has been forming a floor to the pair, after rebounding from it on Jun. 8, 2016.
While BOC decision to raise the target of its overnight interest rate by 0.25% to 0.75% is still underpinning the loonie which has now higher interest rate outlook on BOC readiness to follow the Fed in its tightening path.
WTI is trading now in a close place to $47 per barrel, after it could form a higher low at $43.76 above last Jun. 21 shaped bottom at $42.08.
As US EIA crude oil inventory data could boost it by showing last week falling in the week ending on Jul. 7 by 7.564m barrels to 495.350m suggesting that OPEC cut could start to take its toll on the inventories.
After forming higher low $43.76, WTI could rise for meeting now its daily SMA50 but it's still depressed over longer run by continued being below its daily SMA100, its daily SMA200.
WTI rebounding could help it to be trading now in its second day above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading $43.82 today.
WTI can gather upside momentum by coming over its resistance at $47.41 which stopped its bouncing up previously from $42.08.
WTI daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence in a higher place inside its neutral territory reading 56.139.
While WTI daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having its main line now inside its overbought region above 80 at 94.024 leading to the upside its signal line which is lower in this same area at 81.779.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 46.80, Daily SMA100 @ 48.58 and Daily SMA200 @ 49.84
S&R:
S1: 43.76
S2: 42.08
S3: 39.65
R1: 47.41
R2: 48.53
R3: 50.35
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
The weaker than expected inflation pressure in US could weigh down on the interest rate outlook driving the greenback down across the broad.
After June US CPI release has shown yearly rising by only 1.6%, while the consensus was referring to rising by 1.7%, after surging by 1.9% in May.
June US Retail sales figure came also disappointing showing monthly decreasing by 0.2%, while the median forecast was referring to increasing by 0.1%, after falling by 0.3% in May had been revised to be by only 0.1%.
The preliminary release of July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came also down to 93.1, while the market was waiting for easing down to 95 only, after 95.1 in June to spur worries about the consuming spending strength in US.
The lower interest rate outlook in US has already started to dominate the market sentiment earlier last week.
After The Fed's Chair Janet Yellen's signal that the Federal Reserve won’t be in rush to tighten monetary policy in her congressional testimony, while the prices are facing downside pressure because of structural causes.
She said also that the monetary policy has become close to normal lowering the roof of the market expectations.
Yellen refrained also from referring to a certain time of triggering unwinding of
The Fed's $4.5 trillion balance sheet.
After the committee mentioned in its statement following last Jun. 15 meeting that it is currently expecting to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year, as the economy evolves broadly as anticipated.
The committee had started to prepare the markets for such waited action in the previous meetings of it, before it managed finally to set on Jun 15 meeting its unwinding plan details for normalizing its balance sheet but without determining of the starting date of this action.
The Fed announced that the initial cap will be set at $10 billion a month "$6 billion from Treasuries and $4 billion from mortgage-backed securities", before rising every three months by this same scale until the caps reach $30 billion of US treasuries and $20 billion of MBS.
The US treasuries yields have been negatively impacted by this lower interest rate outlook, while Dow Jones and S&P 500 could keep their pace of recording new all time highs, amid higher earnings reports of the second quarter and energy prices rebounding tries.
The energy prices rebounding could boost the Canadian dollar to keep its upside momentum, as the Canadian economy depends on exporting commodities and crude oil especially to US.
USDCAD is now below 1.2654 supporting level which has been forming a floor to the pair, after rebounding from it on Jun. 8, 2016.
While BOC decision to raise the target of its overnight interest rate by 0.25% to 0.75% is still underpinning the loonie which has now higher interest rate outlook on BOC readiness to follow the Fed in its tightening path.
WTI is trading now in a close place to $47 per barrel, after it could form a higher low at $43.76 above last Jun. 21 shaped bottom at $42.08.
As US EIA crude oil inventory data could boost it by showing last week falling in the week ending on Jul. 7 by 7.564m barrels to 495.350m suggesting that OPEC cut could start to take its toll on the inventories.
After forming higher low $43.76, WTI could rise for meeting now its daily SMA50 but it's still depressed over longer run by continued being below its daily SMA100, its daily SMA200.
WTI rebounding could help it to be trading now in its second day above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading $43.82 today.
WTI can gather upside momentum by coming over its resistance at $47.41 which stopped its bouncing up previously from $42.08.
WTI daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence in a higher place inside its neutral territory reading 56.139.
While WTI daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having its main line now inside its overbought region above 80 at 94.024 leading to the upside its signal line which is lower in this same area at 81.779.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 46.80, Daily SMA100 @ 48.58 and Daily SMA200 @ 49.84
S&R:
S1: 43.76
S2: 42.08
S3: 39.65
R1: 47.41
R2: 48.53
R3: 50.35
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
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Walid Salah Eldin
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21st July 2017 - Draghi could prop EUR up, while USD is still depressed by the politi
The single currency could continue in its upside channel versus the greenback, after Draghi has signaled that the ECB members are to talk about the QE tapering next autumn.
The market participants found a reason to push the single currency higher in this mentioned comment by the ECB president which looked an appreciation of the current markets pricing, after evolving of the economic activity and rising of the prices dragged EU away from the deflation risks.
The ECB president who managed to not shock the markets by more silence had said earlier this month that "the economic growth in EU is broadening but the prudence in adjusting the monetary policy is still needed".
He has mentioned also that there have been discussions in the ECB previous meeting on last Jun. 8 about removing the ECB forward guidance from its released economic analysis.
His comments helped EURUSD to foot above1.12, before gathering higher momentum to be at the current levels which are nearly whereas it had been, before imposing the ECB QE.
But the ECB statement looked unchanged reflecting its appreciation of the inflation inability to gather momentum but it has seen that the inflation is to rise up but this is looking to be by a gradual way. So, the substantial degree of accommodative monetary policy is still needed in EU.
The ECB managed to keep also the QE forward guidance that "if the outlook becomes less favorable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, The ECB stands ready to increase its asset purchase program in terms of size and/or duration"
This keeping means that there is still no will or need to show change of the current monetary policy, before considerable rising of the inflation outlook.
As expected, The ECB kept the main refinancing rate at 0, the marginal lending rate at 0.25% and the deposit rate unchanged at -0.4% respectively.
The ECB maintained the QE buying program at 60B euro the monthly running, until the end of December 2017 keeping also the option of extending it beyond that time, if necessary to sustain inflation to reach its yearly target which is close but below 2%.
So, The waiting ahead would be for removing of this dovish forward guidance first, before QE tapering will not happen before the beginning of Autumn, if there is to be ascending of the inflation upside risks to move the ECB.
While June EU CPI came earlier this week to show rising yearly by 1.3% as its preliminary figure has shown previously which has been the slowest pace of rising since December 2016.
While The greenback is still under the pressure of the ascending political risks which is threatening the economic reflation and weighing on the interest rate outlook in US, following U.S. special counsel announcement that it's now looking for financial ties between Russia and Trump who has had a shocking week started with the death of his health-care reform bill.
After forming series of higher lows since the beginning of this year when it formed a bottom at 1.0339 on the third day of this year to be the lowest level since December 2002.
EURUSD entered new pricing range trading close to 1.1630, after it could gather higher momentum by breaking out its previous resisting level at 1.1616 which has been formed on May. 3, 2016.
EURUSD could succeed to keep higher existence above its daily SMA50, its daily SMA100 and its daily SMA200
EURUSD is in its day number 19 of continued existence above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today 1.1436.
EURUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence just inside the overbought region above 70 reading 70.734.
EURUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is still having its main line in the overbought region above 80 at 81.860 leading to the upside its signal line which is at 81.132.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.1283, Daily SMA100 @ 1.1017 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.0849
S&R:
S1: 1.1370
S2: 1.1312
S3: 1.1180
R1: 1.1713
R2: 1.1871
R3: 1.2226
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
The single currency could continue in its upside channel versus the greenback, after Draghi has signaled that the ECB members are to talk about the QE tapering next autumn.
The market participants found a reason to push the single currency higher in this mentioned comment by the ECB president which looked an appreciation of the current markets pricing, after evolving of the economic activity and rising of the prices dragged EU away from the deflation risks.
The ECB president who managed to not shock the markets by more silence had said earlier this month that "the economic growth in EU is broadening but the prudence in adjusting the monetary policy is still needed".
He has mentioned also that there have been discussions in the ECB previous meeting on last Jun. 8 about removing the ECB forward guidance from its released economic analysis.
His comments helped EURUSD to foot above1.12, before gathering higher momentum to be at the current levels which are nearly whereas it had been, before imposing the ECB QE.
But the ECB statement looked unchanged reflecting its appreciation of the inflation inability to gather momentum but it has seen that the inflation is to rise up but this is looking to be by a gradual way. So, the substantial degree of accommodative monetary policy is still needed in EU.
The ECB managed to keep also the QE forward guidance that "if the outlook becomes less favorable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, The ECB stands ready to increase its asset purchase program in terms of size and/or duration"
This keeping means that there is still no will or need to show change of the current monetary policy, before considerable rising of the inflation outlook.
As expected, The ECB kept the main refinancing rate at 0, the marginal lending rate at 0.25% and the deposit rate unchanged at -0.4% respectively.
The ECB maintained the QE buying program at 60B euro the monthly running, until the end of December 2017 keeping also the option of extending it beyond that time, if necessary to sustain inflation to reach its yearly target which is close but below 2%.
So, The waiting ahead would be for removing of this dovish forward guidance first, before QE tapering will not happen before the beginning of Autumn, if there is to be ascending of the inflation upside risks to move the ECB.
While June EU CPI came earlier this week to show rising yearly by 1.3% as its preliminary figure has shown previously which has been the slowest pace of rising since December 2016.
While The greenback is still under the pressure of the ascending political risks which is threatening the economic reflation and weighing on the interest rate outlook in US, following U.S. special counsel announcement that it's now looking for financial ties between Russia and Trump who has had a shocking week started with the death of his health-care reform bill.
After forming series of higher lows since the beginning of this year when it formed a bottom at 1.0339 on the third day of this year to be the lowest level since December 2002.
EURUSD entered new pricing range trading close to 1.1630, after it could gather higher momentum by breaking out its previous resisting level at 1.1616 which has been formed on May. 3, 2016.
EURUSD could succeed to keep higher existence above its daily SMA50, its daily SMA100 and its daily SMA200
EURUSD is in its day number 19 of continued existence above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today 1.1436.
EURUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence just inside the overbought region above 70 reading 70.734.
EURUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is still having its main line in the overbought region above 80 at 81.860 leading to the upside its signal line which is at 81.132.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.1283, Daily SMA100 @ 1.1017 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.0849
S&R:
S1: 1.1370
S2: 1.1312
S3: 1.1180
R1: 1.1713
R2: 1.1871
R3: 1.2226
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
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Walid Salah Eldin
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the downward is still working well and the next supporting level is expected to be at 1.2460, whereas the pair can be exposed to correction to the upside.
waiting for the fed is essential, before loading more positions.
and the oil prices surveillance is very important to this pair.
while BOC can wait for stronger economic evolving signs and inflation rising before suggesting new hike, wh9le the Fed is expected to signal holding for a while.
waiting for the fed is essential, before loading more positions.
and the oil prices surveillance is very important to this pair.
while BOC can wait for stronger economic evolving signs and inflation rising before suggesting new hike, wh9le the Fed is expected to signal holding for a while.
Walid Salah Eldin
Active member
- Messages
- 222
- Likes
- 2
27th July 2017 - The US Treasuries yields reacted negatively to the FOMC's "relativel
Unanimously, the FOMC members have taken their decision to keep the Fed fund rate unchanged between 1% and 1.25% referring to relatively soon reduction of the Fed's balance sheet.
Nearly all of the markets pundits have seen in this signal paving for the decision of unwinding next meeting on Sep. 19-20 to be enact starting from the third quarter of this year
The Fed which refrained from giving a clearer message about its $4.5 trillion balance sheet has mentioned in its statement following last Jun. 15 meeting that it is currently expecting to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year, as the economy evolves broadly as anticipated.
The unwinding plan will start by $10 billion a month cap "$6 billion from Treasuries and $4 billion from mortgage-backed securities", before rising every 3 months by this same scale, until the caps amount reach $30 billion of US treasuries and $20 billion of MBS.
The FOMC assured on the current low inflation pressure which made it in no rush to raise rates giving further boost to the labor market which did not aggregate enough wage inflationary pressure.
The FOMC has mentioned this time that it will be monitor closely the inflation developments.
After The FOMC underscored its appreciation of the current inflation pressure easing down in its released assessment following last June meeting, when it expected the inflation rate to continue to be in the short run below its 2% yearly inflation target, before stabilizing around this rate over the medium term as it targets.
Last June the committee expected the inflation rate to be at 1.6% this year down from 1.9% it's expected in March, but it kept its forecast for 2018 and 2019 at 2% yearly.
May US PCE broad figure and also core figure rose by only 1.4% year on year, while the Fed's target over the medium term is 2% yearly.
The PCE is the Fed's Favorite inflation barometer and it is to be released about June next Tuesday.
While the markets focusing will be next Friday on the release of Q2 GDP which is expected to show annualized growth by 2.6% after 1.4% expansion in the first quarter.
The FOMC expected last June 2.2% annualized GDP growth rate this year from 2.1% it expected in March.
UST 10YR yield retreated again below 2.30%, after rising last Tuesday to 2.35% level, as The US treasuries yields have reacted negatively to this new reference by the FOMC which pushed the greenback down across the broad raising the gold again above 1260$.
While Dow Jones and S&P 500 could keep their existence close to their all time highs, after higher than expected earnings reports of the second quarter and amid energy prices rebounding could be extended to the beginning of last June levels.
After deeper than expected falling of US EIA crude oil inventory in the week ending on Jul. 21 by 7.208m barrels to 483.415m suggesting that OPEC cut could start to take its toll on the inventories.
After the downside wave from $1296.16 engulfed the previous falling from $1292.76 to $1214.28, the gold could rebound from its higher low at $1204.85 which came above last Mar. 10 bottom at $1194.98.
The Gold could gather momentum to extend its creeping up to be traded now close to $1265, after getting over its daily SMA50, its daily SMA100 and daily SMA200, however it is still exposed to forming a lower high below $1296.16.
XAUUSD daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) is reading today $1236.92 in its 12th day of being below the trading rate.
XAUUSD daily RSI-14 is now referring to existence at a higher place inside its neutral area reading 63.941.
XAUUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in its overbought region at 82.636 leading to the upside its signal line which is in the same territory at 81.225.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $1250.19, Daily SMA100 @ $1248.69 and Daily SMA200 @ $1229.92
S&R:
S1: $1204.85
S2: $1194.98
S3: $1180.75
R1: $1296.16
R2: $1337.31
R3: $1367.25
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
Unanimously, the FOMC members have taken their decision to keep the Fed fund rate unchanged between 1% and 1.25% referring to relatively soon reduction of the Fed's balance sheet.
Nearly all of the markets pundits have seen in this signal paving for the decision of unwinding next meeting on Sep. 19-20 to be enact starting from the third quarter of this year
The Fed which refrained from giving a clearer message about its $4.5 trillion balance sheet has mentioned in its statement following last Jun. 15 meeting that it is currently expecting to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year, as the economy evolves broadly as anticipated.
The unwinding plan will start by $10 billion a month cap "$6 billion from Treasuries and $4 billion from mortgage-backed securities", before rising every 3 months by this same scale, until the caps amount reach $30 billion of US treasuries and $20 billion of MBS.
The FOMC assured on the current low inflation pressure which made it in no rush to raise rates giving further boost to the labor market which did not aggregate enough wage inflationary pressure.
The FOMC has mentioned this time that it will be monitor closely the inflation developments.
After The FOMC underscored its appreciation of the current inflation pressure easing down in its released assessment following last June meeting, when it expected the inflation rate to continue to be in the short run below its 2% yearly inflation target, before stabilizing around this rate over the medium term as it targets.
Last June the committee expected the inflation rate to be at 1.6% this year down from 1.9% it's expected in March, but it kept its forecast for 2018 and 2019 at 2% yearly.
May US PCE broad figure and also core figure rose by only 1.4% year on year, while the Fed's target over the medium term is 2% yearly.
The PCE is the Fed's Favorite inflation barometer and it is to be released about June next Tuesday.
While the markets focusing will be next Friday on the release of Q2 GDP which is expected to show annualized growth by 2.6% after 1.4% expansion in the first quarter.
The FOMC expected last June 2.2% annualized GDP growth rate this year from 2.1% it expected in March.
UST 10YR yield retreated again below 2.30%, after rising last Tuesday to 2.35% level, as The US treasuries yields have reacted negatively to this new reference by the FOMC which pushed the greenback down across the broad raising the gold again above 1260$.
While Dow Jones and S&P 500 could keep their existence close to their all time highs, after higher than expected earnings reports of the second quarter and amid energy prices rebounding could be extended to the beginning of last June levels.
After deeper than expected falling of US EIA crude oil inventory in the week ending on Jul. 21 by 7.208m barrels to 483.415m suggesting that OPEC cut could start to take its toll on the inventories.
After the downside wave from $1296.16 engulfed the previous falling from $1292.76 to $1214.28, the gold could rebound from its higher low at $1204.85 which came above last Mar. 10 bottom at $1194.98.
The Gold could gather momentum to extend its creeping up to be traded now close to $1265, after getting over its daily SMA50, its daily SMA100 and daily SMA200, however it is still exposed to forming a lower high below $1296.16.
XAUUSD daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) is reading today $1236.92 in its 12th day of being below the trading rate.
XAUUSD daily RSI-14 is now referring to existence at a higher place inside its neutral area reading 63.941.
XAUUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in its overbought region at 82.636 leading to the upside its signal line which is in the same territory at 81.225.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $1250.19, Daily SMA100 @ $1248.69 and Daily SMA200 @ $1229.92
S&R:
S1: $1204.85
S2: $1194.98
S3: $1180.75
R1: $1296.16
R2: $1337.31
R3: $1367.25
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
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Last edited:
Walid Salah Eldin
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Trump's "Fire and Fury" could boost demand for Safe Haven
The demand for safer assets like Gold, Yen and UST could be underpinned, after Trump's "Fire and Fury" hawkish comment against North Korea.
His comments came after his success to proceed new sanctions through the security council against North Korea which seemed unfazed of these sanctions which have found no resistance from China.
After Trump’s administration last week announcement that it is preparing currently to investigate about the Chinese violations of the intellectual properties.
After keeping existence close to their all times highs, both of Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes retreated triggering more demand for safe haven.
The Greenback has been already boosted by higher interest rate outlook could drive the UST yields up weighing down on the demand for risky assets.
The gold could overcome last Friday losses trading currently near $1265, after steep diving to $1251 following the release of last July labor report which has shown retreating of the unemployment rate to 4.3% and adding 209k of jobs out of the farming sector.
The market participants are now pricing in one more interest rate hiking by the end of this year by 0.25% and starting of unwinding The Fed's $4.5 trillion balance sheet with the beginning of the fourth quarter of this year.
After the FOMC members have already to referred to relatively soon reduction of the Fed's balance sheet to start by $10 billion a month cap "$6 billion from Treasuries and $4 billion from mortgage-backed securities", before rising every 3 months by this same scale, until the caps amount reach $30 billion of US treasuries and $20 billion of MBS.
Now the focusing would be on the inflation pressure in US, After The FOMC assurance on the current low inflation pressure which made it in no rush to raise rates giving further last July.
The FOMC has mentioned in its recent economic assessment that it will be monitor closely the inflation developments.
So, The markets eyes will be directed by the end of this week to the release of US CPI of July which is expected to show by God's will yearly rising by 1.8% following increasing by 1.6% in June has been the weakest since October 2016.
The core figure excluding food and energy is expected to show also ascending by 1.8% YoY, after rising by only 1.7% in June and also in May.
The gold could form a higher low at $1251.43 above its previous formed low at $1243.77 which came in its ascending way from its second bottom at $1204.85 which came above last Mar. 10 bottom at $1194.98.
The Gold could revive its existence above its daily SMA50, its daily SMA100 and daily SMA200 by bouncing up from $1251.43
XAUUSD daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) is reading today $1270.92 in its 5th day of being above the trading rate, after retreating from $1274.04 which is still forming a lower high below $1296.16.
XAUUSD daily RSI-14 is still referring to existence inside its neutral area reading 59.770.
XAUUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in its neutral territory at 42.690 leading to the upside its signal line which is lower in the same area at 34.575.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $1250.83, Daily SMA100 @ $1252.92 and Daily SMA200 @ $1229.77
S&R:
S1: $1251.43
S2: $1143.77
S3: $1204.85
R1: $1274.04
R2: $1296.16
R3: $1337.31
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
The demand for safer assets like Gold, Yen and UST could be underpinned, after Trump's "Fire and Fury" hawkish comment against North Korea.
His comments came after his success to proceed new sanctions through the security council against North Korea which seemed unfazed of these sanctions which have found no resistance from China.
After Trump’s administration last week announcement that it is preparing currently to investigate about the Chinese violations of the intellectual properties.
After keeping existence close to their all times highs, both of Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes retreated triggering more demand for safe haven.
The Greenback has been already boosted by higher interest rate outlook could drive the UST yields up weighing down on the demand for risky assets.
The gold could overcome last Friday losses trading currently near $1265, after steep diving to $1251 following the release of last July labor report which has shown retreating of the unemployment rate to 4.3% and adding 209k of jobs out of the farming sector.
The market participants are now pricing in one more interest rate hiking by the end of this year by 0.25% and starting of unwinding The Fed's $4.5 trillion balance sheet with the beginning of the fourth quarter of this year.
After the FOMC members have already to referred to relatively soon reduction of the Fed's balance sheet to start by $10 billion a month cap "$6 billion from Treasuries and $4 billion from mortgage-backed securities", before rising every 3 months by this same scale, until the caps amount reach $30 billion of US treasuries and $20 billion of MBS.
Now the focusing would be on the inflation pressure in US, After The FOMC assurance on the current low inflation pressure which made it in no rush to raise rates giving further last July.
The FOMC has mentioned in its recent economic assessment that it will be monitor closely the inflation developments.
So, The markets eyes will be directed by the end of this week to the release of US CPI of July which is expected to show by God's will yearly rising by 1.8% following increasing by 1.6% in June has been the weakest since October 2016.
The core figure excluding food and energy is expected to show also ascending by 1.8% YoY, after rising by only 1.7% in June and also in May.
The gold could form a higher low at $1251.43 above its previous formed low at $1243.77 which came in its ascending way from its second bottom at $1204.85 which came above last Mar. 10 bottom at $1194.98.
The Gold could revive its existence above its daily SMA50, its daily SMA100 and daily SMA200 by bouncing up from $1251.43
XAUUSD daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) is reading today $1270.92 in its 5th day of being above the trading rate, after retreating from $1274.04 which is still forming a lower high below $1296.16.
XAUUSD daily RSI-14 is still referring to existence inside its neutral area reading 59.770.
XAUUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in its neutral territory at 42.690 leading to the upside its signal line which is lower in the same area at 34.575.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $1250.83, Daily SMA100 @ $1252.92 and Daily SMA200 @ $1229.77
S&R:
S1: $1251.43
S2: $1143.77
S3: $1204.85
R1: $1274.04
R2: $1296.16
R3: $1337.31
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
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alextrader79
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yay.... the demand for safe assets continues to rise....
Walid Salah Eldin
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GBP is undermined by lower than expected inflation pressure in UK
The risk appetite could find its way back to the investors as the worries abated about the conflict between North Korea and US.
The gold lost momentum trading now close to $1275$ and UST yields rose again making USD much more attractive with increasing demand for risky assets drove the US blue chips up again.
The Japanese yen came under pressure as a low yielding funding currency sending USDJPY to be trading close to 110.50, after steep falling to 108.73 last week amid the tensions between US and North Korea, following Trump's "Fire and Fury" comment.
The inflation data of Jul came out from UK today telling about weaker than expected inflationary pressure over the producing level and also the consuming level lowering the odds of watching tightening of BOE's monetary policy this year.
UK CPI rose by 2.6% YOY in July as the same it did in June, While the consensus was referring to increasing by 2.7% and also the core figure excluding food and energy rose by 2.4% yearly as the same as June, while the median forecast was pointing to rising by 2.5%.
While UK input n.s.a price index rose yearly in July by only 6.5% and the anticipation was referring to increasing by 7% which is the weakest yearly rising since July of last year and also the sixth consecutive month of watching deceleration of this pace reflecting the impact of the cable recent appreciation toward 1.30 psychological level.
GBPUSD retreated to be trading now close to 1.29 which has not been seen since 13th of last month.
The markets will be waiting next for the release of US retails sales figures of July to know more about the consuming spending in US.
July US Retails sales are expected to rise by 0.4% monthly after shocking retreating in June by 0.2%.
GBPUSD is now trading below its daily SMA50, but it's still supported over longer term by keeping existence above its daily SMA100 and its daily SMA200.
GBPUSD is now in its day number 8 of continued being below its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today 1.3149, after forming a top at 1.3265 on Aug. 3.
GBPUSD daily RSI-14 is now referring to lower existence inside the neutral region reading 41.338.
GBPUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line at 26.672 in intersection with its signal line which is reading 25.178.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.1283, Daily SMA100 @ 1.1017 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.0849
S&R:
S1: 1.3031
S2: 1.3265
S3: 1.3444
R1: 1.2589
R2: 1.2365
R3: 1.2226
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
The risk appetite could find its way back to the investors as the worries abated about the conflict between North Korea and US.
The gold lost momentum trading now close to $1275$ and UST yields rose again making USD much more attractive with increasing demand for risky assets drove the US blue chips up again.
The Japanese yen came under pressure as a low yielding funding currency sending USDJPY to be trading close to 110.50, after steep falling to 108.73 last week amid the tensions between US and North Korea, following Trump's "Fire and Fury" comment.
The inflation data of Jul came out from UK today telling about weaker than expected inflationary pressure over the producing level and also the consuming level lowering the odds of watching tightening of BOE's monetary policy this year.
UK CPI rose by 2.6% YOY in July as the same it did in June, While the consensus was referring to increasing by 2.7% and also the core figure excluding food and energy rose by 2.4% yearly as the same as June, while the median forecast was pointing to rising by 2.5%.
While UK input n.s.a price index rose yearly in July by only 6.5% and the anticipation was referring to increasing by 7% which is the weakest yearly rising since July of last year and also the sixth consecutive month of watching deceleration of this pace reflecting the impact of the cable recent appreciation toward 1.30 psychological level.
GBPUSD retreated to be trading now close to 1.29 which has not been seen since 13th of last month.
The markets will be waiting next for the release of US retails sales figures of July to know more about the consuming spending in US.
July US Retails sales are expected to rise by 0.4% monthly after shocking retreating in June by 0.2%.
GBPUSD is now trading below its daily SMA50, but it's still supported over longer term by keeping existence above its daily SMA100 and its daily SMA200.
GBPUSD is now in its day number 8 of continued being below its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today 1.3149, after forming a top at 1.3265 on Aug. 3.
GBPUSD daily RSI-14 is now referring to lower existence inside the neutral region reading 41.338.
GBPUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line at 26.672 in intersection with its signal line which is reading 25.178.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.1283, Daily SMA100 @ 1.1017 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.0849
S&R:
S1: 1.3031
S2: 1.3265
S3: 1.3444
R1: 1.2589
R2: 1.2365
R3: 1.2226
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
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koteltrader
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Part II...
Bumping this thread as geopolitical tensions are likely to hot up again next week, when the US begins joint military exercises with South Korea.
It seems that some spread bet / CFD providers are already getting itchy about this, with at least one (who I won't name) writing to clients to say that it may increase margin requirements on (currently unspecified) instruments at any time and without notice.
Aside from the obvious advice, which is not to use leverage, how many of you, especially full-time traders, are making a conscious decision to scale out of any open positions and stay out of the market during the next few weeks?
Should the situation escalate, the kinds of moves witnessed post Brexit referendum and SNB may seem like a walk in the park.
Bumping this thread as geopolitical tensions are likely to hot up again next week, when the US begins joint military exercises with South Korea.
It seems that some spread bet / CFD providers are already getting itchy about this, with at least one (who I won't name) writing to clients to say that it may increase margin requirements on (currently unspecified) instruments at any time and without notice.
Aside from the obvious advice, which is not to use leverage, how many of you, especially full-time traders, are making a conscious decision to scale out of any open positions and stay out of the market during the next few weeks?
Should the situation escalate, the kinds of moves witnessed post Brexit referendum and SNB may seem like a walk in the park.
Last edited:
Walid Salah Eldin
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i see that the geopolitical concerns are still close to the markets exposing gold 1300$ psychological level to breaking out.
UST 10 year yield can easily visit a lower place below 2.20% level with Jackson hole talks which are expected to underscore the current lower than expected inflation level which could be boosted by the improving of the labor market in US and EU.
Have a great new week
UST 10 year yield can easily visit a lower place below 2.20% level with Jackson hole talks which are expected to underscore the current lower than expected inflation level which could be boosted by the improving of the labor market in US and EU.
Have a great new week
Walid Salah Eldin
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22nd August 2017 - The risk appetite is struggling to find its way back
The US blue chips are still trying to find their way back up by making some shy gains, after last Thursday massive selling off on the political tension in US and the geopolitical tensions between US and North Korea which can keep The US equities indexes exposed to another downside wave.
As it looks this time that the investors' trust is not quite enough to push them above their all times highs, despite the rising confidence in the consuming spending in US which has been highlighted by the end of last week by the preliminary release of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index which has shown rebounding to its highest level since last January to 97.6, after falling to 93.4 in July.
After US retail sales of July have shown rising by 0.6% monthly beating the expectations which were referring to rising by only 0.4%, after falling in June by 0.2% has been revised to increasing by 0.3%.
These data could boost the US treasuries yields but they were not enough to bring back the bullish sentiment to watch these yields giving back what they gained easily, as the trust in Trump's reflation plans is still fading to be now at its lowest level, after new series of resignations because of his remarks about the violence in Charlottesville, Virginia.
The republican speaker Paul Ryan has tried to cool down the worries about the conflict between US and North Korea in his CNN meeting by saying that his agreed with Trump policy which puts pressure on China to make crucial change in the situation.
Paul summarized his worry by saying that it is ruled out to see military conflict soon, but the main concern is the possibility of selling Nuclear weapon by North Korea.
However the markets main worry meanwhile is the North Korean reaction to the new military exercises between US and South Korea.
The gold could easily touch $1300` psychological level by the end of last week but with some improving of the current improving of the risk appetite it retreated to be now to be close to $1290.
While the markets are waiting for new comments from the monetary policy makers when they meet in Jackson hole by the end of this week to know more about the interest rate outlook.
The Fed's Chief Janet Yellen is widely expected to give strong reference to the current weaker than expected inflation pressure in US which finds difficulty in building up wages inflation pressure despite the labor market improving.
As the employees are still looking accepting lower wages for having jobs and the employers do not find need to pay much more for achieving their required businesses.
While most of the market participants are now pricing in one more interest rate hiking by the end of this year by 0.25% and starting of unwinding The Fed's $4.5 trillion balance sheet with the beginning of the fourth quarter of this year.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said last week it would be “reasonable” to announce the beginning of a reduction of the central bank’s balance sheet next month, while cautioning that disappointing inflation data may delay interest-rate increases as technological disruption dampens price pressures.
There will be focusing on the ECB president Draghi's comments, after The single currency could be boosted by his signaled that the ECB members are to talk about the QE tapering next autumn following last meeting of the ECB members.
While the minutes of that meeting came out last week to show discrepancy about the suitable forward guidance that should be given to pave the markets for new action without misleading or lagging.
The minutes said that the members agreed that there should be a change but it must be "incremental" as postponing an adjustment for too long could give rise to a misalignment between the Governing Council’s communication and its assessment of the state of the economy.
The Gold could have another bullish sign last week by surpassing last Jun. 6 high at $1296.07, but its upside momentum set back, after finding difficulty to foot above $1300 level.
The gold is now close but below this psychological which has been reached, after it could form another higher low at $1267.27 above $1251.16 to come in its ascending way from its second bottom at $1204.85 which came above last Mar. 10 bottom at $1194.98.
The Gold could keep its existence based above its daily SMA50 and its daily SMA100 by bouncing up from $1251.43, after the rebounding from $1204.74 brought it back above daily SMA200.
XAUUSD daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) is reading today $1268.88 in its 10th day of being above the trading rate, after forming a bottom on Aug. 8 at $1251.16.
XAUUSD daily RSI-14 is still referring to existence inside its neutral area reading 62.161.
XAUUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in its neutral territory at 61.913 leading to the downside its signal line which is higher in the same area at 64.627.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $1252.76, Daily SMA100 @ $1256.41 and Daily SMA200 @ $1229.98
S&R:
S1: $1267.27
S2: $1251.16
S3: $1204.74
R1: $1300.85
R2: $1337.37
R3: $1375.20
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
The US blue chips are still trying to find their way back up by making some shy gains, after last Thursday massive selling off on the political tension in US and the geopolitical tensions between US and North Korea which can keep The US equities indexes exposed to another downside wave.
As it looks this time that the investors' trust is not quite enough to push them above their all times highs, despite the rising confidence in the consuming spending in US which has been highlighted by the end of last week by the preliminary release of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index which has shown rebounding to its highest level since last January to 97.6, after falling to 93.4 in July.
After US retail sales of July have shown rising by 0.6% monthly beating the expectations which were referring to rising by only 0.4%, after falling in June by 0.2% has been revised to increasing by 0.3%.
These data could boost the US treasuries yields but they were not enough to bring back the bullish sentiment to watch these yields giving back what they gained easily, as the trust in Trump's reflation plans is still fading to be now at its lowest level, after new series of resignations because of his remarks about the violence in Charlottesville, Virginia.
The republican speaker Paul Ryan has tried to cool down the worries about the conflict between US and North Korea in his CNN meeting by saying that his agreed with Trump policy which puts pressure on China to make crucial change in the situation.
Paul summarized his worry by saying that it is ruled out to see military conflict soon, but the main concern is the possibility of selling Nuclear weapon by North Korea.
However the markets main worry meanwhile is the North Korean reaction to the new military exercises between US and South Korea.
The gold could easily touch $1300` psychological level by the end of last week but with some improving of the current improving of the risk appetite it retreated to be now to be close to $1290.
While the markets are waiting for new comments from the monetary policy makers when they meet in Jackson hole by the end of this week to know more about the interest rate outlook.
The Fed's Chief Janet Yellen is widely expected to give strong reference to the current weaker than expected inflation pressure in US which finds difficulty in building up wages inflation pressure despite the labor market improving.
As the employees are still looking accepting lower wages for having jobs and the employers do not find need to pay much more for achieving their required businesses.
While most of the market participants are now pricing in one more interest rate hiking by the end of this year by 0.25% and starting of unwinding The Fed's $4.5 trillion balance sheet with the beginning of the fourth quarter of this year.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said last week it would be “reasonable” to announce the beginning of a reduction of the central bank’s balance sheet next month, while cautioning that disappointing inflation data may delay interest-rate increases as technological disruption dampens price pressures.
There will be focusing on the ECB president Draghi's comments, after The single currency could be boosted by his signaled that the ECB members are to talk about the QE tapering next autumn following last meeting of the ECB members.
While the minutes of that meeting came out last week to show discrepancy about the suitable forward guidance that should be given to pave the markets for new action without misleading or lagging.
The minutes said that the members agreed that there should be a change but it must be "incremental" as postponing an adjustment for too long could give rise to a misalignment between the Governing Council’s communication and its assessment of the state of the economy.
The Gold could have another bullish sign last week by surpassing last Jun. 6 high at $1296.07, but its upside momentum set back, after finding difficulty to foot above $1300 level.
The gold is now close but below this psychological which has been reached, after it could form another higher low at $1267.27 above $1251.16 to come in its ascending way from its second bottom at $1204.85 which came above last Mar. 10 bottom at $1194.98.
The Gold could keep its existence based above its daily SMA50 and its daily SMA100 by bouncing up from $1251.43, after the rebounding from $1204.74 brought it back above daily SMA200.
XAUUSD daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) is reading today $1268.88 in its 10th day of being above the trading rate, after forming a bottom on Aug. 8 at $1251.16.
XAUUSD daily RSI-14 is still referring to existence inside its neutral area reading 62.161.
XAUUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in its neutral territory at 61.913 leading to the downside its signal line which is higher in the same area at 64.627.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $1252.76, Daily SMA100 @ $1256.41 and Daily SMA200 @ $1229.98
S&R:
S1: $1267.27
S2: $1251.16
S3: $1204.74
R1: $1300.85
R2: $1337.37
R3: $1375.20
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
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Walid Salah Eldin
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29th August 2017 - The geopolitical concerns sent gold well above $1300 psychology
The geopolitical concerns sent the gold well above $1300 per ounce, after North Korea fired new missile over Japan.
The Japanese yen could be well-buoyed, before the Asian session as a low yielding funding currency. The news drove USDJPY down to 108.33 waiting for response from US and Japan.
The risk aversion contained the market sentiment weighing down on the Asian equities opening send the US major indexes future rates down. S&P 500 future dropped to be now in intersection with its daily SMA100 again.
The equities markets could hardly overcome the escalating tensions between US and North Korea which contained the market sentiment previously following Trump's "Fire and Fury" comment.
But the shy try to forget that risk and revive the risk appetite could not send the Gold far away below $1300.
The Gold which was trading close but below this psychological level is now having clear breaking out of this resisting area which stopped it several times before to be exposed now to stop selling orders and increasing of the upside momentum, after opening this new range of trading.
The US equities have been actually undermined by the outcome of Hurricane Harvey which dampened the insurer companies shares and mining activities in Texas and the Gulf of Mexico.
After Gary Cohn's try to revive the hope of reflation by saying that he expects tax reforms to be passed this year denying his intention to resign over Trump’s reaction to riots in Charlottesville.
While Trump is still stick to his threat of shutting down the U.S. government, if he is unable to get funds to build a wall along the Mexican border.
USD has been actually depressed by Yellen's refraining from sending new signals about the monetary policy adding to uncertainty, while the worries were ascending about the inflation outlook in US.
Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan called for patience in waiting for prices to go higher and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester urged her colleagues to look past recent weak inflation data and to stick to their gradual pace of lifting interest rates.
While Kansas City’s Esther George said another rate hike is still feasible this year, if U.S. data holds up.
So, the markets eyes will be directed next to the release of US Q2 GDP second reading which is expected to show next Wednesday upward annualized growth revision to 2.7%, after the preliminary reading has shown growth by 2.6% following 1.4% expansion in the first quarter.
The FOMC expected last June 2.2% annualized GDP growth rate this year from 2.1% it expected in March.
There will be also focusing by the end of this week on the release of August US Labor report which is expected to show adding of 180k of jobs out of the farming sector, after gaining 209k in July.
The market participants will pay also their attention to the wages inflationary pressure in US when they read the average hourly earnings which are expected to show growth monthly by 0.2% in August, after rising by 0.3% in July.
The Gold could have another bullish sign by surpassing $1300 which stopped it on Aug. 18, after it could previously form another higher low at $1267.27 above $1251.16 to come in its ascending way from its second bottom at $1204.85 which came above last Mar. 10 bottom at $1194.98.
The Gold could keep its existence based above its daily SMA50 and its daily SMA100 by bouncing up from $1251.43, after the rebounding from $1204.74 brought it back above daily SMA200.
XAUUSD daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) is reading today $1274.57 in its second day of being above the trading rate, after dipping to $1274.57 last Friday.
XAUUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence inside its overbought area above 70 reading 71.485.
XAUUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in its overbought territory at 88.336 leading to the upside its signal line which is still in the neutral area at 71.839.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $1257.55, Daily SMA100 @ $1258.64 and Daily SMA200 @ $1231.87
S&R:
S1: $1267.27
S2: $1251.16
S3: $1204.74
R1: $1337.37
R2: $1375.20
R3: $1392.09
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
The geopolitical concerns sent the gold well above $1300 per ounce, after North Korea fired new missile over Japan.
The Japanese yen could be well-buoyed, before the Asian session as a low yielding funding currency. The news drove USDJPY down to 108.33 waiting for response from US and Japan.
The risk aversion contained the market sentiment weighing down on the Asian equities opening send the US major indexes future rates down. S&P 500 future dropped to be now in intersection with its daily SMA100 again.
The equities markets could hardly overcome the escalating tensions between US and North Korea which contained the market sentiment previously following Trump's "Fire and Fury" comment.
But the shy try to forget that risk and revive the risk appetite could not send the Gold far away below $1300.
The Gold which was trading close but below this psychological level is now having clear breaking out of this resisting area which stopped it several times before to be exposed now to stop selling orders and increasing of the upside momentum, after opening this new range of trading.
The US equities have been actually undermined by the outcome of Hurricane Harvey which dampened the insurer companies shares and mining activities in Texas and the Gulf of Mexico.
After Gary Cohn's try to revive the hope of reflation by saying that he expects tax reforms to be passed this year denying his intention to resign over Trump’s reaction to riots in Charlottesville.
While Trump is still stick to his threat of shutting down the U.S. government, if he is unable to get funds to build a wall along the Mexican border.
USD has been actually depressed by Yellen's refraining from sending new signals about the monetary policy adding to uncertainty, while the worries were ascending about the inflation outlook in US.
Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan called for patience in waiting for prices to go higher and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester urged her colleagues to look past recent weak inflation data and to stick to their gradual pace of lifting interest rates.
While Kansas City’s Esther George said another rate hike is still feasible this year, if U.S. data holds up.
So, the markets eyes will be directed next to the release of US Q2 GDP second reading which is expected to show next Wednesday upward annualized growth revision to 2.7%, after the preliminary reading has shown growth by 2.6% following 1.4% expansion in the first quarter.
The FOMC expected last June 2.2% annualized GDP growth rate this year from 2.1% it expected in March.
There will be also focusing by the end of this week on the release of August US Labor report which is expected to show adding of 180k of jobs out of the farming sector, after gaining 209k in July.
The market participants will pay also their attention to the wages inflationary pressure in US when they read the average hourly earnings which are expected to show growth monthly by 0.2% in August, after rising by 0.3% in July.
The Gold could have another bullish sign by surpassing $1300 which stopped it on Aug. 18, after it could previously form another higher low at $1267.27 above $1251.16 to come in its ascending way from its second bottom at $1204.85 which came above last Mar. 10 bottom at $1194.98.
The Gold could keep its existence based above its daily SMA50 and its daily SMA100 by bouncing up from $1251.43, after the rebounding from $1204.74 brought it back above daily SMA200.
XAUUSD daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) is reading today $1274.57 in its second day of being above the trading rate, after dipping to $1274.57 last Friday.
XAUUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence inside its overbought area above 70 reading 71.485.
XAUUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in its overbought territory at 88.336 leading to the upside its signal line which is still in the neutral area at 71.839.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $1257.55, Daily SMA100 @ $1258.64 and Daily SMA200 @ $1231.87
S&R:
S1: $1267.27
S2: $1251.16
S3: $1204.74
R1: $1337.37
R2: $1375.20
R3: $1392.09
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
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Walid Salah Eldin
Active member
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EURUSD resided for trading near 1.1920 ahead of the ECB meeting
The greenback is still undermined by the geopolitical concerns which weighed down on the UST yields which have been depressed recently by rising odds of having no more interest rate hiking this year amid the current lower than expected inflation pressure in US which makes the Fed in no rush to raise rates.
The gold is now trading close to $1335, after hitting its highest level since Sep. 26, 2016 at $1344.36 in the beginning of this week.
While the demand for risky assets could be supported by reaching a deal to extend the U.S. debt limit affording funds to the government till the middle of next December.
The deal calmed down the worries about the government ability to fund the rebuilding in Texas on the aftermath of the hurricane Hervey which dampened the insurer companies shares and the mining activities in this region.
While it looks that Trump can find his way to intersect into the monetary policy too, after receiving yesterday The Fed's vice president Stanley Fisher's resignation letter.
Trump is not in favor of strong dollar and prefer weaker dollar for supporting the exporting activity and lowering the imports.
The current United States Secretary of the Treasury under the Trump administration Steven Mnuchin said it clearly last week that a weaker currency is “somewhat better” for trade.
Trump is now working for imposing new sanctions against North Korea and its trading counterparts through the UN security council but that can be met by Russian objection.
As the Russian side became reluctant to add more pressure on North Korea which can go forward as usual with more desperation of reaching a diplomatic solution as the Russian president Putin indicated.
While The US administration is still raising the pressure on China to cap the North Korean plans believing that the clue to solve this problem is in China hand.
God willing, The markets will be waiting today for the outcome of ECB members meeting, after his president Mario Draghi refrained from talking down the value of the currency in his Jackson Hole speech earlier last month.
Following the last meeting on Jul. 7, Draghi signaled that the ECB members are to talk about the QE tapering next autumn.
While the minutes of that meeting came out to show discrepancy about the suitable forward guidance that should be given to pave the markets for new action without misleading or lagging.
The minutes said that the members agreed that there should be a change but it must be "incremental" as postponing an adjustment for too long could give rise to a misalignment between the Governing Council’s communication and its assessment of the state of the economy.
EURUSD rose to be traded close to 1.1920, after finding support at 1.1823 following easing down from 1.2070 which has been reached on last Aug. 29.
After forming series of higher lows since the beginning of this year when it formed a bottom at 1.0339 on the third day of this year to be the lowest level since December 2002.
EURUSD could enter a new pricing range of trading, after gathering higher momentum by breaking out its previous resisting level at 1.1616 which capped the pair on May. 3, 2016.
After rising from its formed bottom on last Apr. 10 at 1.1569, EURUSD succeeded to keep its existence above its daily SMA50, its daily SMA100 and its daily SMA200.
EURUSD is still above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) for the 14th consecutive day reading today 1.1865.
EURUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence inside the neutral region reading 60.334.
EURUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is still having its main line also in the neutral region at 56.445 leading to the upside its signal line which is at 43.628.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.1697, Daily SMA100 @ 1.1401 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.1015
S&R:
S1: 1.1823
S2: 1.1663
S3: 1.1612
R1: 1.2070
R2: 1.2226
R3: 1.2569
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
The greenback is still undermined by the geopolitical concerns which weighed down on the UST yields which have been depressed recently by rising odds of having no more interest rate hiking this year amid the current lower than expected inflation pressure in US which makes the Fed in no rush to raise rates.
The gold is now trading close to $1335, after hitting its highest level since Sep. 26, 2016 at $1344.36 in the beginning of this week.
While the demand for risky assets could be supported by reaching a deal to extend the U.S. debt limit affording funds to the government till the middle of next December.
The deal calmed down the worries about the government ability to fund the rebuilding in Texas on the aftermath of the hurricane Hervey which dampened the insurer companies shares and the mining activities in this region.
While it looks that Trump can find his way to intersect into the monetary policy too, after receiving yesterday The Fed's vice president Stanley Fisher's resignation letter.
Trump is not in favor of strong dollar and prefer weaker dollar for supporting the exporting activity and lowering the imports.
The current United States Secretary of the Treasury under the Trump administration Steven Mnuchin said it clearly last week that a weaker currency is “somewhat better” for trade.
Trump is now working for imposing new sanctions against North Korea and its trading counterparts through the UN security council but that can be met by Russian objection.
As the Russian side became reluctant to add more pressure on North Korea which can go forward as usual with more desperation of reaching a diplomatic solution as the Russian president Putin indicated.
While The US administration is still raising the pressure on China to cap the North Korean plans believing that the clue to solve this problem is in China hand.
God willing, The markets will be waiting today for the outcome of ECB members meeting, after his president Mario Draghi refrained from talking down the value of the currency in his Jackson Hole speech earlier last month.
Following the last meeting on Jul. 7, Draghi signaled that the ECB members are to talk about the QE tapering next autumn.
While the minutes of that meeting came out to show discrepancy about the suitable forward guidance that should be given to pave the markets for new action without misleading or lagging.
The minutes said that the members agreed that there should be a change but it must be "incremental" as postponing an adjustment for too long could give rise to a misalignment between the Governing Council’s communication and its assessment of the state of the economy.
EURUSD rose to be traded close to 1.1920, after finding support at 1.1823 following easing down from 1.2070 which has been reached on last Aug. 29.
After forming series of higher lows since the beginning of this year when it formed a bottom at 1.0339 on the third day of this year to be the lowest level since December 2002.
EURUSD could enter a new pricing range of trading, after gathering higher momentum by breaking out its previous resisting level at 1.1616 which capped the pair on May. 3, 2016.
After rising from its formed bottom on last Apr. 10 at 1.1569, EURUSD succeeded to keep its existence above its daily SMA50, its daily SMA100 and its daily SMA200.
EURUSD is still above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) for the 14th consecutive day reading today 1.1865.
EURUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence inside the neutral region reading 60.334.
EURUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is still having its main line also in the neutral region at 56.445 leading to the upside its signal line which is at 43.628.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.1697, Daily SMA100 @ 1.1401 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.1015
S&R:
S1: 1.1823
S2: 1.1663
S3: 1.1612
R1: 1.2070
R2: 1.2226
R3: 1.2569
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
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11th September 2017 - The risk appetite could be boosted in the beginning of the new
The risk appetite could be boosted in the beginning of the new week, as the weekend did not carry new ballistic missile test from North Korean which celebrated its national day last Saturday, while Hurricane Irma has been downgraded to level 2, after its landfall on Florida yesterday.
The Japanese yen has been well-buoyed as a low yield financing currency sending USDJPY up to 108.50 area underpinning the demand for Nikkei 225 major exporting companies in the beginning of this new week, after slippage to 107.31 by the weekend weighed down on the demand for equities.
The gold retreated below $1340, after reaching by the weekend $1357.52 which has been its highest reached level since Aug. 16, 2016 on the rising odds of having no more interest rate hiking this year amid the current lower than expected inflation pressure in US and the outcomes of the hurricanes which hit it strongly this year.
While it seems that Trump can find his way to intersect into the monetary policy too, after receiving last week The Fed's vice president Stanley Fisher's resignation letter.
Trump is planning for replacing The Fed's Chief Yellen who is to end her term next February, While the current strongest candidate for taking her place is the National Economic Council director and President Donald Trump's top economic advisor, Gary Cohn who tried recently to revive the hope of reflation by saying that he expects tax reforms to be passed this year denying his intention to resign over Trump’s reaction to riots in Charlottesville.
It's well known that Trump is not in favor of strong dollar and prefers weaker dollar for supporting the exporting activity and lowering the imports volume for raising the capacity utilization and the demand for jobs in US.
The current United States Secretary of the Treasury under the Trump administration Steven Mnuchin said it clearly earlier last month that "a weaker currency is somewhat better for trade".
The markets will waiting later today for the UN security council voting for imposing new sanctions against North Korea and also its trading counterparts, while it looks that the Russian side is more reluctant this time to accept this projection, as it adds more pressure on North Korea which can go forward unfazed of UN as usual with more desperation of reaching a diplomatic solution as the Russian president Putin indicated last week.
While The US administration is still raising the pressure on China to cap the North Korean plans believing that the clue to solve this problem is in the hand China which said it is to accept imposing new sanctions, if these sanctions are to lead to diplomatic solution.
USDJPY opened the new week on an upside gap at 108.10, after closing last week at 107.52 following dipping to 107.31 last Friday which is its lowest recorded level since last Nov. 14.
USDJPY reached 107.31 after watching increasing downside momentum following breaking its key supporting level at 108.05 which could prop it up on last Apr. 17.
USDJPY is still trading well below its daily SMA50, its daily SMA100 and also its daily SMA200 in its fourth day of consecutive being below its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading 110.33 today.
USDJPY is still exposed to forming a lower high to resume this descending channel, after failing to get over 111.04 resisting level forming a lower high at 110.67 at the end of last August.
USDJPY daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence inside its neutral territory reading 41.030.
USDJPY daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line inside its neutral region at 27.223 leading to the upside its signal line which is lower in the same region at 23.664 after bottoming out above the oversold area below 20.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 111.16, Daily SMA100 @ 112.32 and Daily SMA200 @ 110.33
S&R:
S3: 107.31
S2: 106.03
S3: 104.96
R1: 110.67
R2: 111.04
R3: 112.20
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
The risk appetite could be boosted in the beginning of the new week, as the weekend did not carry new ballistic missile test from North Korean which celebrated its national day last Saturday, while Hurricane Irma has been downgraded to level 2, after its landfall on Florida yesterday.
The Japanese yen has been well-buoyed as a low yield financing currency sending USDJPY up to 108.50 area underpinning the demand for Nikkei 225 major exporting companies in the beginning of this new week, after slippage to 107.31 by the weekend weighed down on the demand for equities.
The gold retreated below $1340, after reaching by the weekend $1357.52 which has been its highest reached level since Aug. 16, 2016 on the rising odds of having no more interest rate hiking this year amid the current lower than expected inflation pressure in US and the outcomes of the hurricanes which hit it strongly this year.
While it seems that Trump can find his way to intersect into the monetary policy too, after receiving last week The Fed's vice president Stanley Fisher's resignation letter.
Trump is planning for replacing The Fed's Chief Yellen who is to end her term next February, While the current strongest candidate for taking her place is the National Economic Council director and President Donald Trump's top economic advisor, Gary Cohn who tried recently to revive the hope of reflation by saying that he expects tax reforms to be passed this year denying his intention to resign over Trump’s reaction to riots in Charlottesville.
It's well known that Trump is not in favor of strong dollar and prefers weaker dollar for supporting the exporting activity and lowering the imports volume for raising the capacity utilization and the demand for jobs in US.
The current United States Secretary of the Treasury under the Trump administration Steven Mnuchin said it clearly earlier last month that "a weaker currency is somewhat better for trade".
The markets will waiting later today for the UN security council voting for imposing new sanctions against North Korea and also its trading counterparts, while it looks that the Russian side is more reluctant this time to accept this projection, as it adds more pressure on North Korea which can go forward unfazed of UN as usual with more desperation of reaching a diplomatic solution as the Russian president Putin indicated last week.
While The US administration is still raising the pressure on China to cap the North Korean plans believing that the clue to solve this problem is in the hand China which said it is to accept imposing new sanctions, if these sanctions are to lead to diplomatic solution.
USDJPY opened the new week on an upside gap at 108.10, after closing last week at 107.52 following dipping to 107.31 last Friday which is its lowest recorded level since last Nov. 14.
USDJPY reached 107.31 after watching increasing downside momentum following breaking its key supporting level at 108.05 which could prop it up on last Apr. 17.
USDJPY is still trading well below its daily SMA50, its daily SMA100 and also its daily SMA200 in its fourth day of consecutive being below its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading 110.33 today.
USDJPY is still exposed to forming a lower high to resume this descending channel, after failing to get over 111.04 resisting level forming a lower high at 110.67 at the end of last August.
USDJPY daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence inside its neutral territory reading 41.030.
USDJPY daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line inside its neutral region at 27.223 leading to the upside its signal line which is lower in the same region at 23.664 after bottoming out above the oversold area below 20.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 111.16, Daily SMA100 @ 112.32 and Daily SMA200 @ 110.33
S&R:
S3: 107.31
S2: 106.03
S3: 104.96
R1: 110.67
R2: 111.04
R3: 112.20
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
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Walid Salah Eldin
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25th September 2017 - It's mostly CDU/CSU, FDP and Greens coalition
The success of AfD to gain about 13.5% of the Bundstag weighed down on the single currency opening of the new week.
This Far Right Party which has been created in 2014 is not good for EUR or even for the financial markets in EU, but it could build its popularity basing on anti-immigration supporters in 2015 and 2016.
The success of AfD was on the account of both CDU/CSU coalition which gained only 32.5% and SPD which retreated to only 20%, after their grant coalition to rule Germany in the recent period.
The SPD candidate Martin Shultz refused to be in this same coalition which made his party a second choice and lowered its popularity and its chance to gain the position of the Chancellor.
So, now the most possible coalition is to be "CDU/CSU, FDP and Greens" which is good for the industrials such as Siemens, Bosch, Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler and also good for financials like Deutsche Bank and Commerz Bank.
As the right Free Democratic Party's program was depending on imposing new easier legislations for business corporations, while the Greens main concern is always the environment.
So, Merkel's rule in this Jamaica Coalition then is to pave the way for passing FDP's economic stimulus plans without hurting the financial situation of Germany which is the concern of her conservative CDU party and also without hurting the environment or penetrating Paris climate pact which is the main concern of the Greens.
Merkel with this new coalition cannot keep the germane door opened anymore as it has been in 2015 to more than 1 million migrants or as she has promised in the case of facing the same circumstances again.
Merkel's action distorted the political situation Germany, as it has not only given the right support, but it also revived racist population direction in the Germany society has almost disappeared.
The markets will be focusing on the developments which will rum in Germany and also will be waiting today for the release of Sep Germane IFO, before European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's speech today
EURUSD failed to maintain a place above 1.20 psychological level last Friday, Before closing last week at 1.1946.
EURUSD opened the new week on a downside gap at 1.1921 and it could not fill this gap until now.
EURUSD has previously formed a lower high at 1.2032 below its peak at 1.2092 which has been formed on Sep. 8.
EURUSD is now in its ninth day of being below its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today 1.2025.
However EURUSD is still underpinned by continued being above its daily SMA50, its daily SMA100 and its daily SMA200, after forming a series of higher lows had started with its formed bottom at 1.0339 on the third day of this year to be the lowest level since December 2002.
EURUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence in the neutral region reading 53.176.
EURUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is still having its main line in the neutral region at 44.851 leading to the downside its signal line which is at 46.095.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.1827, Daily SMA100 @ 1.1527 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.1095
S&R:
S1: 1.1822
S2: 1.1662
S3: 1.1612
R1: 1.2032
R2: 1.2092
R3: 1.2271
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
The success of AfD to gain about 13.5% of the Bundstag weighed down on the single currency opening of the new week.
This Far Right Party which has been created in 2014 is not good for EUR or even for the financial markets in EU, but it could build its popularity basing on anti-immigration supporters in 2015 and 2016.
The success of AfD was on the account of both CDU/CSU coalition which gained only 32.5% and SPD which retreated to only 20%, after their grant coalition to rule Germany in the recent period.
The SPD candidate Martin Shultz refused to be in this same coalition which made his party a second choice and lowered its popularity and its chance to gain the position of the Chancellor.
So, now the most possible coalition is to be "CDU/CSU, FDP and Greens" which is good for the industrials such as Siemens, Bosch, Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler and also good for financials like Deutsche Bank and Commerz Bank.
As the right Free Democratic Party's program was depending on imposing new easier legislations for business corporations, while the Greens main concern is always the environment.
So, Merkel's rule in this Jamaica Coalition then is to pave the way for passing FDP's economic stimulus plans without hurting the financial situation of Germany which is the concern of her conservative CDU party and also without hurting the environment or penetrating Paris climate pact which is the main concern of the Greens.
Merkel with this new coalition cannot keep the germane door opened anymore as it has been in 2015 to more than 1 million migrants or as she has promised in the case of facing the same circumstances again.
Merkel's action distorted the political situation Germany, as it has not only given the right support, but it also revived racist population direction in the Germany society has almost disappeared.
The markets will be focusing on the developments which will rum in Germany and also will be waiting today for the release of Sep Germane IFO, before European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's speech today
EURUSD failed to maintain a place above 1.20 psychological level last Friday, Before closing last week at 1.1946.
EURUSD opened the new week on a downside gap at 1.1921 and it could not fill this gap until now.
EURUSD has previously formed a lower high at 1.2032 below its peak at 1.2092 which has been formed on Sep. 8.
EURUSD is now in its ninth day of being below its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today 1.2025.
However EURUSD is still underpinned by continued being above its daily SMA50, its daily SMA100 and its daily SMA200, after forming a series of higher lows had started with its formed bottom at 1.0339 on the third day of this year to be the lowest level since December 2002.
EURUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence in the neutral region reading 53.176.
EURUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is still having its main line in the neutral region at 44.851 leading to the downside its signal line which is at 46.095.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.1827, Daily SMA100 @ 1.1527 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.1095
S&R:
S1: 1.1822
S2: 1.1662
S3: 1.1612
R1: 1.2032
R2: 1.2092
R3: 1.2271
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
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