Al
My view is that most published volume data is a distraction of virtually no value. I only use it with Ftse futures at turning points and even this is not much use, and with vwap where it is accumulated throughout the day and therefore more representative of reality.
Volume is one of those items of data which imo people think must be useful simply because it's available. Since the days of Livermore and before players have disguised their intentions and manipulating volume is one way to do it.
There are perfectly legal facilities available to delay or hide or disguise volume and these are typically used by the big players.
Think about it - if you have a large position to fill you don't want others to know what you are doing. Institutions, Banks etc do not want their competitors knowing their intentions.
So the key information which players would love to know is disguised in some way. The rest of the volume that is visible and accurately reported is mostly small-fry stuff.
And if you are a big player then you are one of those who moves the market and causes reversals which the small players try to follow.
A friend of mine has recently noticed that on the Ftse Futures he can see large volumes of contracts being bought or sold in small lots (as low as 1) one after the other like a machine gun firing.
(I take his word for this because it's not visible from IB's feed but it is from Mytrack's, which I no longer use.)
Of course if you can make volume work for you then good for you, but frankly I don't believe that volume enthusiasts enjoy much success.
Glenn
100% agree.
guys,
If you asked me to prove if there was a GOD then I would be having a difficult task to do so and I am sure we eventually agree to disagree but with stuff like relationship between P * V I can take you to a trading desk in my Previous employment and dump 100 000 share with in 2 hours with no abnormality shown in the volume chart ..
Fact 1)NOW A DAYS ,, Asset managers play their cards very close to their chest and route their orders through algorithmic engines and DMA providers than block order desk . They fragment and distribute volume and then add them up to deliver a Large block @ VWAP as Glen mentioned on behalf of a institution with large traffic of daily business,,,
Fact2) Smart volume never discloses its intention as other program traders trade against it.
Fact3) small agency brokers use in house third party algorithms to execute trades on behalf of investment banks . They do that every day under your own nose but which one of P*V ( as they call them selves ) see them coming or going ,.. BLOODY NONE
Fact4) if a director wants to buy lets say 100 000 share in his own company ,, how does he do that ? I let you to figure this one out .. in fact I give you an exercise ,,Go to SEC site and find out what director last bought shares in his own company and WHEN and tell me on the chart on that particular day did any thing abnormal happened or not that a PV analyst could see it coming ? Most director buying spikes happen when few days after the news leak or is published and naive trader trade the stock to the up side.
The modern Trading techniques has made the market very very efficient and life very difficult for an average trader to make $$ with a degree of certainty above 50/50 and I hope traders OPEN THEIR EYES and WAKE UP ..
Well done my man Glenn ,, You da man
HINT :-- Most TECHNICIANS No matter if they are P*V so called exPertS or Chart expertS they have one thing in common,, They are all POLITICIANS ,, THIS IS WHAT THEY TELL YOU ,, MONDAY MARKET MIGHT GO UP BUT ON DAILY YOU SEE WEAKNESS WHICH MIGHT GO DOWN .. IF IT GOES UP UP X POINTS THEN IT MIGHT GO UP HIGHER THERE AGAIN IF IT DOES NOT IT SHOWS WEAKNESS ...... WHICH BASICALLY IT MEANS I HAVE NO IDEA WHERE THE HELL MARKET IS GOING BUT PAY ME TO TEACH YOU """ TALKING THE TALK .""
GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
Grey1
