USD/YEN Dont you just love it when we get text book days ???

[George A]

Isnt it just great when we get text book days like this ?????
The chart is self explanatory , and hope it will be understood easily .
A perfect 76.4 rally of the previous days range ,,,
A 200% repeat range of the first MAJOR range of the day , target 96.962.
A 127 ext. of the reversal range ,, todays high to yesterdays low , with a targte of 96.945 , and actual low 96.931.
People say that Fibonacci can NOT be traded as a stand alone strategy ,,, well , I CAN argue that point , and the proof of that IS ,, the REAL charts as we can all see.
Yes i am a 100% FIB trader , and as u can see there are NO indicators on my chart , reasonably NAKED chart ,, EXCEPT 2 moving averages , and i ONLY use them as momentum indicator as i have mastered the use of them and the signal i get out of them when we reach bottoms and tops , and i NEVER trade off them OR crosses of the averages , as by that time the market has put in the foundation range for the day , and i do NOT like trading the wash area ,, either TOPS or BOTTOMS ,and FIB levels in between for compounding trades .
Cheers
George

 

[Purple Brain]

George A - I don't think anyone doubts the ability to retrospectively point out when Fib's 'work' - as you have done here – even ironically quoting it as a 'textbook day'. I’ve seen very few Fib fans pick the days when there is absolutely no relationship to any fib levels and admit it works less often than it does, and even when it does, precisely which of the many levels will be the key ones.

You can just as easily take any move, cut it into quarters, or thirds, or both – and ‘show’ a price reaction at one or more of these levels.

Did you actually trade any of these moves based on the levels? Did know in advance it would move to those specific levels it did? If it had hit 61.8 or 50 or 161.8 you would probably feel confident in claiming that as a victory for Fibs too.

One way to put this one to bed – and I’m more than happy to be convinced along with several tens of thousands of others – is for you to call a trading plan ahead of time based on the levels you feel confident the price will reach. Any pair or pairs you like.

 

[George A]

George A - I don't think anyone doubts the ability to retrospectively point out when Fib's 'work' - as you have done here – even ironically quoting it as a 'textbook day'. I’ve seen very few Fib fans pick the days when there is absolutely no relationship to any fib levels and admit it works less often than it does, and even when it does, precisely which of the many levels will be the key ones.

You can just as easily take any move, cut it into quarters, or thirds, or both – and ‘show’ a price reaction at one or more of these levels.

Did you actually trade any of these moves based on the levels? Did know in advance it would move to those specific levels it did? If it had hit 61.8 or 50 or 161.8 you would probably feel confident in claiming that as a victory for Fibs too.

One way to put this one to bed – and I’m more than happy to be convinced along with several tens of thousands of others – is for you to call a trading plan ahead of time based on the levels you feel confident the price will reach. Any pair or pairs you like.

Purple Rain,
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Firstly , thank u for taking the time and posting ur reply .
This is what i would like to say , and i do NOT mean to say that anyone else's system or way of trading is wrong ,as there are many successful traders and many successful systems and strategies , BUT this is simply my HUMBLE PERSONAL OPINION , and i would like it to be taken as that .
Like many people i have come across , and of course i say this with all due respect , to many , FIBS would have to be the MOST under valued phenomenon .
Now , to what u have asked ,
To answer ur question , and as we ALL know ,, There is NOTHING in this world that would call an exact turning point in trading ( unless u r the main market maker ) , BUT as we all know , we work on high probability calling , that is NO 1 .
NO 2 , YES , i can very much rely on fib levels to the highest order .
I trade 15 mnt charts , and at the beginning of the day , i would NOT have an idea where the market will go , BUT as i use sentiment and momentum feel in my trading style , i can often call OR have a bias IF we will have a lower day OR a higher day or even an inside day , and based on that , then yes i will have a road map as to certain levels where i can expect the market go to , and again that is based on my deep study and research , which i will NOT explain here and now , but also , we can not discount the power of it working through the day , swing after swing , which will be the a further confirming factor to my overall road map .
Now i am sure some or many will say this is jargon,, BUT i have NO problem with that , as i trade for my own satisfaction and not anyone else's .
Also to ur other question , YES , i would trade a low such as i have shown on my chart any day without any hesitation or doubt , for more than 1 reason .
There are so many setups like that , that i can go on and on pointing out , BUT it will become crazy taking this back and forth , but i want to bring ur attention to just a quick one comes to mind on the Aussie / US , the top on the 1/10 was set up from the top of the 26/9 .
Now 26th top was a mid high , and it was NOT random that i would use that top,, ( BUT there ARE rules to theories i have come to see working , and how to Fibs are working , and it is NOT something i learned from some course , as this stuff would NOT be taught anywhere i am sure , and i know the reason why , which i would NOT disclose here, it is MY OWN finding of thousands of hours invested) , that top gives me a target high for a reversal at .95234 , now check ur chart for the high that day, the 1/10 , and pls note it was not that day that is important ,, BUT that price level , and u can also see that was 4 days worth of market action , and ended up with a reasonable pull back of 100 pips ,, why did it stop at that price ?????
Cheers,
George