Ukraine invasion

CV,
As I pushed you for an answer to this question vis a vis Zelensky and Ukraine - I'll answer it vis a vis Putin and Russia.

My best guess is that for Putin it's not so much a matter of the number of lives lost per se - but the consequences of lives lost. That is to say, if the number that the Russians admit to becomes too high with little or no corresponding net gain - then this will undermine his presidency and pressure on him will start to mount. However, if he's achieving his goals, then the 'price' paid in terms of lives lost can be sold as a price worth paying to his domestic audience. So, it's a question of balance. At the moment, (in spite of your and c_v's protestations to the contrary), the number of lives lost is within acceptable bounds and Russians believe their objectives are being reached.

What are 'acceptable bounds'? Time for a trading analogy: think of price trending up in, say, a Keltner Channel. When it gets to either the upper or lower band, this may trigger action either to take profit or to exit the trade. However, while price remains in the channel and continues to trend upwards, the trade can continue indefinitely. This, I suspect, is how Putin will look at it and not care particularly about total death count. Doubtless, he'll be mindful of Stalin's famous quote: “A single death is a tragedy, a million deaths are a statistic”.
Tim.

When every bit of news is propagandized for Putin's domestic audience, lies on top of lies, how on earth can you believe that Russian military deaths are within acceptable limits.

Honestly, the mind boggles that you can even countenance such ridiculous thoughts.
 
While Zelensky admitted 100 casualties per day, nothing like that coming from Russia.
If Ukraine had 10.000 casualties Russia had at least 20.000.
It is just common sense, an invading force in hostile territory, without full air superiority.
 
I am not so surprised, this is consistent with the concept of militia for territorial defence, appropriate for the first weeks of the invasion.
I dont' think they are sending militia on the frontline today.

BTW you will never have a realistic picture from TASS.
I admit we are full of pro Ukraine propaganda where every ukranian is a honest hero but how can you trust russian information NOW?
They declared they were not going to invade for months, and than they invaded, after this huge lie they lost every bit of credibility.


I just copied a comment from the video above which I also watched this way:
"Since April Russia changed strategy. They do not rush big cities they plan to meatgrind all Ukrainain army on Donbass including forces from Kiev and Western Ukraine. Russia is going to take big cities after there will be no Ukrainian army left. Regular Ukrainian army is dwindling by every single day. Ukraine started to sent home guard milita from Western Ukraine to fill the gaps because of heavy casualties. Russia is advancing in Donbass very slowly and they lure more and more Ukrainian reinforcements into cauldron."

That is also confirmed by the picture of today's Polish map about the war (blue is Ukrainian action, red is Russian). A couple of days ago it was untypically calm in that area, but since 2 days Russia is going in with massive equipment.

You see a similar picture in the Kherson region.

1654794937694.png
 
When every bit of news is propagandized for Putin's domestic audience, lies on top of lies, how on earth can you believe that Russian military deaths are within acceptable limits.

Honestly, the mind boggles that you can even countenance such ridiculous thoughts.
c_v,
Please read my post again carefully as I addressed your concern in detail. I suspect you're missing the key point that I was double guessing what Putin thinks: the comments absolutely are not my personal response to the question posed. If you're not clear by now where I stand on the issue of the number of lives lost (on either side of the conflict) - then you've not been paying attention!

Alternatively, perhaps you've misunderstood my points or perhaps I've not expressed myself clearly. Either way, if you want additional clarification - I'll happily provide it.
Tim.
 
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"Since April Russia changed strategy. They do not rush big cities they plan to meatgrind all Ukrainain army on Donbass including forces from Kiev and Western Ukraine. Russia is going to take big cities after there will be no Ukrainian army left. Regular Ukrainian army is dwindling by every single day. Ukraine started to sent home guard milita from Western Ukraine to fill the gaps because of heavy casualties. Russia is advancing in Donbass very slowly and they lure more and more Ukrainian reinforcements into cauldron."
My interpretation is exactly the opposite.
Russia is going all-in to get the last bit of Luhansk oblast to claim some kind of victory.
Their goal is to take land while ukranians are conservative and their goal is to maximize damage to russian army.
On liveuamap you will always see much more red activity because the sources are ukranian that report what happens on land controlled by Ukraine.
Some days ago there were many air strikes by ukranian on Kherson region.
Recapturing Kherson makes much more sense than retaking ruins and scorched land in Donbas.
 
My interpretation is exactly the opposite.
Russia is going all-in to get the last bit of Luhansk oblast to claim some kind of victory.
Their goal is to take land while ukranians are conservative and their goal is to maximize damage to russian army.
On liveuamap you will always see much more red activity because the sources are ukranian that report what happens on land controlled by Ukraine.
Some days ago there were many air strikes by ukranian on Kherson region.
Recapturing Kherson makes much more sense than retaking ruins and scorched land in Donbas.
Maybe you understand my position better if you watch Brian's video above.
 


edit:
More from the European parliament:

"EU foreign, defense and security policy today can be described in a single sentence. The European Union became the 51st federal state of the United States but without the right to vote."
 
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If you're not clear by now where I stand on the issue of the number of lives lost (on either side of the conflict) - then you've not been paying attention!
Now it is my turn for some direct questions. :)
How many casualties are in your opinion for ukranian army?
How many casualties in your opinion for russian army?
 
Now it is my turn for some direct questions. :)
How many casualties are in your opinion for ukranian army?
How many casualties in your opinion for russian army?
CV,
The only (and obvious) truthful answer is that I've no idea - on either side. However, as a non-partisan observer without a vested interest or agenda favouring either side, my best guess is that the numbers on both sides are probably somewhere between what each side claims they are. So, Ukraine has admitted today to losing circa 100 personnel (killed), with a further 500+ injured and out of action. The Russians claim much more than that, so I'm inclined to go somewhere between the two, Ditto for Russian personal killed and injured. Certainly, the idea that Russian forces are sustaining much higher casualties than Ukrainian forces makes no sense whatsoever and defies all logic, so I reject out of hand any claims in that regard as blatant propaganda. As always, if there's clear evidence to the contrary - then (unlike others on here ;-) ), I'm more than happy to admit I'm wrong.
Tim.
 
Kangaroo court anyone !

Ukraine's ratification date was in 1993.

Art 47. Mercenaries​

1. A mercenary shall not have the right to be a combatant or a prisoner of war.
2. A mercenary is any person who:
(a) is specially recruited locally or abroad in order to fight in an armed conflict; (b) does, in fact, take a direct part in the hostilities; (c) is motivated to take part in the hostilities essentially by the desire for private gain and, in fact, is promised, by or on behalf of a Party to the conflict, material compensation substantially in excess of that promised or paid to combatants of similar ranks and functions in the armed forces of that Party; (d) is neither a national of a Party to the conflict nor a resident of territory controlled by a Party to the conflict; (e) is not a member of the armed forces of a Party to the conflict; and (f) has not been sent by a State which is not a Party to the conflict on official duty as a member of its armed forces.
 
Ukraine's ratification date was in 1993.

Art 47. Mercenaries​

1. A mercenary shall not have the right to be a combatant or a prisoner of war.
2. A mercenary is any person who:
(a) is specially recruited locally or abroad in order to fight in an armed conflict; (b) does, in fact, take a direct part in the hostilities; (c) is motivated to take part in the hostilities essentially by the desire for private gain and, in fact, is promised, by or on behalf of a Party to the conflict, material compensation substantially in excess of that promised or paid to combatants of similar ranks and functions in the armed forces of that Party; (d) is neither a national of a Party to the conflict nor a resident of territory controlled by a Party to the conflict; (e) is not a member of the armed forces of a Party to the conflict; and (f) has not been sent by a State which is not a Party to the conflict on official duty as a member of its armed forces.

The Britons' families have insisted they are long-serving members of the Ukrainian military and not mercenaries.

A spokesman added that prisoners of war "shouldn't be exploited for political purposes" and pointed to the laws of war laid out in the Geneva Conventions - which confers "combatant immunity" on prisoners of war.

Mr Aslin, 28, from Newark, in Nottinghamshire, and Mr Pinner, 48, from Bedfordshire, were captured by Russian forces in April. Their families say they were fighting in the Ukrainian military.
The younger man has a Ukrainian fiancee and both men are said to have lived in Ukraine since 2018.

'Propaganda above law'​

Mr Aslin's MP, Robert Jenrick, called for the Russian Ambassador to the UK to be summoned to the Foreign Office to "account for this egregious breach" of international law.
Ukraine's Foreign Ministry told the BBC that all foreign nationals fighting for Ukraine's military who are captured have rights as prisoners of war under international humanitarian law, and Russia was "forbidden to abuse, intimidate them or behave inhumanely with them".
A spokesman described the "so-called trial" of all three men as "miserable", adding the government would "continue to make every effort to release all defenders of Ukraine".
"Such public trails place the interests of propaganda above law and morality, and undermine the exchange mechanisms of war prisoners," he said.
Chairman of the foreign affairs committee Tom Tugendhat accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of carrying out "a form of hostage taking, a form of revenge".
The Conservative MP told BBC Radio 4's PM programme: "It's not a state, it's not a court and the judges are merely people dressing up and pretending.
"The reality is this is an absolutely brutal thing to do to three completely innocent people."
 
The Britons' families have insisted they are long-serving members of the Ukrainian military and not mercenaries.
One served in the Donbas war for years and the other trained Azov guys, if I got it right.
Both are still British nationals, have experience from other wars, which makes it hard to accept them as Ukrainian POWs.


Nearly no more detailed information can be found about the Moroccan Brahim Saadoun, and it looks like he went to the Ukranian forces at the beginning of the invasion and surrendered six weeks later. There are also doubts on reddit that he was a student in Kiev.
 


and again, including the U.S. patent from 2015 for the bio weapon drone
 
"Since April Russia changed strategy. They do not rush big cities they plan to meatgrind all Ukrainain army on Donbass including forces from Kiev and Western Ukraine. Russia is going to take big cities after there will be no Ukrainian army left.
I think Ukraine is doing the same.
Russia is gaining ground on Donbas but pushing has a price, the price is higher losses than the defenders.
They have to push because Putin wants results, even generals have to go to the frontline.
Ukraine has no problems with manpower, according to google the salary of the soldiers has been raised from 300 to 3000$.
Russia has manpower problems, while people support the war with words very few russians are willing to go and risk their life for Putins glory. The salary for a professional russian soldier is 900$.
It is a slow war of attrition, the main problem for Ukraine is artillery and ammo.
 
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