Ukraine invasion

[CavaliereVerde]

3) When Putin gives up and leaves Ukraine
It can require a lot of time but happens quite often with invasions.
Internal support for the war special operation is much lower than it was in the first weeks.
At that point there will be a negotiation for Crimea and Donbas.

 

[Atilla]

In the Same Week as His “Brutal Invasion” Gaffe, Bush Falls Victim to Russian Pranksters
As always, the btl comments are worth reading. Note the one from 'Mark' to a poster suggesting that probably the least painful way to end the conflict is for someone to put some lead between Putin’s ears.

Mark's reply. . .
"The fact that you think that replacing Putin would “end the conflict” merely reflects the degree to which you have bought into the childish propaganda that personalises (as always) the issues so as to try to make US rivals seem irrational. The fact that the economic “shock and awe” attempt has failed so utterly, and that the Russians are slowly but surely winning the war on the ground, means that time is on the side of the Russians and the war will end when they achieve their goals, and not before.

The likelihood is that a replacement for Putin would be from the school of Russian thought that sees Putin as too soft on “the west”, especially if it resulted from an assassination that was attributed to US sphere agents.

The only positive effect from such a change of leader in Russia would probably be the opportunity it would provide for some in the US sphere to climb down from their literally stupid, dogmatic “Assad Putin must go” positions, and make the necessary compromises."

Spot on Mark. Excluding nuclear war (please god), there are only two ways this conflict will end:
1) When Putin achieves his objectives and says it's over.
2) When the west and Zelensky agree to compromise at the negotiating table.
Tim.

Agree Tim and what you said earlier really is fundamental too.

The MSM are not leading with the war in Ukraine anymore. Or what a hero Zelensky is. It's like they've moved on and they expect it to simply smoulder in the background.

At the while there is great transfer of wealth from Mr Average Citizen to big energy and food producing companies whose shares are held by wealthy cash rich bodies, who are due bumper dividends. Similarly, weapon manufacturers and the big War Lords make more money producing non-productive weapons killing people. Public tax payer pays for it all.

Anybody on fixed incomes and pensions will lose out.

There is also, increasing risk of Nuclear or WW3 as well. I don't think the West know the mentality of the people from the East. It is do or die. If Putin goes to think a West friendly chap will fill his boots and appease Zelensky's wet wishes is barking mad.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

The MSM are not leading with the war in Ukraine anymore.

That is clear, not so exciting anymore.
It would be interesting to monitor the visibility of the war also on Russian media.
This helps Putin to save the face, I think now the russian strategy will be to belittle the thing, some kind of "successful denazification of Mariupol" and "donbas is now more protected".

 

[CavaliereVerde]

It is do or die.

I would say do or deny .
War? there is no war...
Ukraine? there is no Ukraine...
Navalny? who is he?
Only big mother Russia is real, is mother Russia safe?
Yes, so the operation is successful, simple...

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

That is clear, not so exciting anymore.
It would be interesting to monitor the visibility of the war also on Russian media.
This helps Putin to save the face, I think now the russian strategy will be to belittle the thing, some kind of "successful denazification of Mariupol" and "donbas is now more protected".

TASS Russian News Agency

Since 1904 TASS has been Russia’s leading news agency. For more than 113 years, TASS has ceaselessly strived to deliver the latest and most accurate news from around the world

tass.com

Ukrainska pravda

Ukrainska Pravda - Ukraine's news

www.pravda.com.ua

Uups .. than was the Ukraine version - the only one which is full of war

News and analytical materials - PravdaReport

News stories, photo galleries, photo reports, analytics, videos on Russia's oldest news website. We invite you to be our guest for live video feeds to discuss latest

english.pravda.ru

 

[timsk]

3) When Putin gives up and leaves Ukraine

Dream on CV.
That ain't gonna happen unless and until Putin can claim victory and say that most - or all - of Russia's objectives have been achieved. He won't give up until they are, not least because he doesn't have to as he knows he'll get there in the end. Even you must surely realise by now that the only way he can lose is by direct Nato involvement. Otherwise, his vistory is assured - it's simply a question of time. What will it take - what has to happen - for you to come around to this simple, blindingly obvious, common sense conclusion?
Tim.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Even you must surely realise by now that the only way he can lose is by direct Nato involvement.

As I have already stated, if it would be necessary Zelensky would ask it, while he is only asking for more artillery.

Putin can claim victory and say that most - or all - of Russia's objectives have been achieved.

I am sure that Putin will claim victory, the point is neither me you or the russians know what are these objectives.
These objectives are fully customizable.

What will it take - what has to happen - for you to come around to this simple, blindingly obvious, common sense conclusion?

My common sense is different than yours, I was right before, I can be right another time.
I think Ukraine has enough strenght to push Russians to pre February by the end of the year.
You think time is on Russia side while I think time is on Ukraine side.

 

[timsk]

I think Ukraine has enough strenght to push Russians to pre February by the end of the year.
You think time is on Russia side while I think time is on Ukraine side.

Again, dream on CV.
I assume you're not in the least bit interested in what is actually taking place on the battlefield in Ukraine and would prefer to cling to your fantasy that Zelensky can defeat Putin. If I'm wrong (and I'm happy to admit it when I am), and you want some real analysis as to what's really going on - watch this . . .

 

[CavaliereVerde]

mmmhhh
A couple of titles from this channel:
Russia fights for self presevation...
Russia isn't starting a war is ending one...
Doesn't match with my common sense thanx....

 

[timsk]

mmmhhh
A couple of titles from this channel:
Russia fights for self presevation...
Russia isn't starting a war is ending one...
Doesn't match with my common sense thanx....

Thought not - you proved me right on this occasion. Shame.
You just keep clinging to what you want to believe, what you wish would happen and ignore the reality. Just so you know, in the vid' linked, the presenter purposefully uses maps from a pro-Ukrainian source, specifically to appease sceptical viewers like you!

The mind is like a parachute CV - it only works when it's open.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

At the moment Russia is gaining ground in Donbas but the ground lost around Kiev and Karkhiv is much more that the one gained in Donbas.
That channel agenda seems to be anti-US , there are even pro China videos where Uighurs are the bad guys.
Yes it is all about what you want to believe.

Being open mided doesn't mean being a conspiracy believer or a flat earther.

 

[timsk]

Being open mided doesn't mean being a conspiracy believer or a flat earther.

CV,
Correct me if I'm wrong, but am I corrct in thinking that if the maps from Ukrainian sources show the red areas (indicating Russia held and controled territory) getting ever larger and gradually expanding westwards, you'll still insist Ukraine is winning and accuse the likes of me, At', histo' and n_t as being flat earth tin hat wearing conspiracy theorists? Is that what you're saying? Also, if your mind is as open as you claim it is then, presumably, you have to consider the possibility that Ukraine loses the war and Russia wins it. Just so I'm clear, what has to happen before you to admit that Ukraine can't win the war, is losing the war or has lost the war?
Tim.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Russia is gaining ground but it gained alot of ground also around Kiev and than... retreated...
Is Russia gaining ground? Yes
Is Russia winning the war? I think no

Just so I'm clear, what has to happen before you to admit that Ukraine can't win the war, is losing the war or has lost the war?

The occupation of another large city besides the initial momentum, like Karkhiv or Odessa.

 

[timsk]

Russia is gaining ground but it gained alot of ground also around Kiev and than... retreated...

It's called a tactical withdrawal CV. Matey explained what the did and why in the vid' I linked to.

Is Russia gaining ground? Yes

Steadily but surely.

Is Russia winning the war? I think no

Based on what evidence? You've just admitted that Russia's gaining ground!!! I think this is what you want to believe so you can pretend the reality isn't happening.

The occupation of another large city besides the initial momentum, like Karkhiv or Odessa.

At last, we're getting somewhere! Both cities will fall to the Russians - it's simply a matter of time.
Tim.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

So when russians retreat is tactical but if ukranians lose ground they are losing the war...

Based on what evidence?

No significat losses, high morale and support from the west.

Both cities will fall to the Russians

Let's wait and see.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

So when russians retreat is tactical but if ukranians lose ground they are losing the war...

They left the area, Ukraine didn't beat them. There's a difference.

No significat losses, high morale and support from the west.

Where do you have this information from? Looks like it works that they don't publish it, but publish figures about Russian losses. Estimation from irregularly (and incompletely) published data: 100 to 400 Ukrainians per day.

Or is the reason that Ukranians left all their equipment abandoned befor it was destroyed?
https://tass.com/politics/1454973

Russian forces destroy 793 drones, 2,979 armored vehicles in Ukraine operation - top brass

Russia’s missile troops, artillery eliminate up to 380 Ukrainian nationalists

tass.com

Edit:

high morale

https://en.topwar.ru/196274-sjurrealizm-neonacisty-azova-obratilis-k-izrailju-i-evrejskim-obschinam-dlja-pomoschi-v-vyhode-s-azovstali.html

 

[CavaliereVerde]

They left the area,

The failed and retreated from Kiev and Karkhiv, it will happen also in the other parts of Ukraine.
Of course russian state media has other stories.
Let's wait and see.

Russian troops have eliminated 178 Ukrainian combat aircraft, 995 unmanned aerial vehicles, 3,243 tanks and armored vehicles and 425 multiple launch rocket systems



178 aircrafts??? It is more than Ukraine had before the war!!!
This is the credibility of tass and russian info.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

The failed and retreated from Kiev and Karkhiv, it will happen also in the other parts of Ukraine.
Of course russian state media has other stories.
Let's wait and see.

Russian troops have eliminated 178 Ukrainian combat aircraft, 995 unmanned aerial vehicles, 3,243 tanks and armored vehicles and 425 multiple launch rocket systems



178 aircrafts??? It is more than Ukraine had before the war!!!
This is the credibility of tass and russian info.

Don't know how they count it.
I assume they count every manned aerial vehicle and there are some left (and to add the expensive donations from the European scrap yards)

World Air Forces 2022: All combat aircraft of Ukraine

According to FlightGlobal, the combat strength of fighter and front-line aviation includes 43 MiG-29s, 26 Su-27s, 12 Su-24s and 17 Su-25s

en.ukrmilitary.com

 

[Atilla]

The failed and retreated from Kiev and Karkhiv, it will happen also in the other parts of Ukraine.
Of course russian state media has other stories.
Let's wait and see.

To say they failed is pre-loaded with many assumptions about what the objectives were.

Just thinking about some of the possibilities...

1. It could have been a diversion by Russia to split troops
2. Distract attention from other Russian operations
3. Disinformation to identify spooks
4. Response to new intel about Ukrainian movements or to avoid traps
5. Minimise casualties in densely populated civilian areas
6. Adopt alternative strategy
7. Take easy soft targets and leave Kiev to last

Russians were certainly not beaten. If the enemy thinks Russia defeated and retreating it should push that advantage home and continue with the offensive but I don't see Ukraine in all out attack going for the Russians in retreat?

In some quarters, charge of the light brigade is considered to be a success. Fast cavalry can successfully take out guns. But at what cost? So if the Russians did meet resistance and the cost to both sides likely to be damaging why not turn back. Good on them.

There is more than one way to skin a cat.

However, to say Ukraine is winning the war and the Russians are in retreat is really REALLY ludicrous.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

1. It could have been a diversion by Russia to split troops
2. Distract attention from other Russian operations
3. Disinformation to identify spooks
4. Response to new intel about Ukrainian movements or to avoid traps
5. Minimise casualties in densely populated civilian areas
6. Adopt alternative strategy
7. Take easy soft targets and leave Kiev to last

8. working supply chain was not build - it is not clear whether a supply chain was planned for surrounding Kiev.

No. 1., 2., 5., 7. and 8. can be validated by research.
There were not enough troops at Kiev to take Kiev and I don't remember that they added troops there.
Then the strategy looked changed or undefined and there were some speculations about the why as the Ukranian forces did not deliver any reason for a retreat.

Forcing Ukraine to keep their troops in Kiev made it much easier to take other areas in the South with a minimum of losses (on both sides).