UK House prices post march 2019

[meldge]

Does anyone know if you can still do uk residential property options anywhere or failing that spreadbet - IG used to but they've stopped as far as I can see.

I'm looking to hedge my house equity post March 2019 in case we crash out and prices drop.

The Treasury seem to think prices will drop 30% on a hard Brexit. That's looking more likely.

Apologies if this has already been discussed on here - can't see anything on my search.

Thanks!

 

[Trader333]

Why does anyone think they will drop even with a no deal scenario when we have demand that substantially exceeds supply ? The only thing that would cause prices to go down is an increase in interest rates in my view.

One thing you can rely on and that is the experts will invariably be wrong about what they predict will happen.

 

[FXX]

The treasury doesn't exactly have a good forecast record. These are the same mugs that said immediate recession and tens of thousands of job losses.

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[meldge]

House prices are already tumbling in London and I'm in the home counties so we're normally next. Can't see how they won't fall here if there's no deal.

 

[malaguti]

House prices are already tumbling in London and I'm in the home counties so we're normally next. Can't see how they won't fall here if there's no deal.

prices have been tumbling in prime central london for the least 2-3 years. the greater london area hasn't been affected so much as the buyers in prime central are generally foreign buyers/investors. they have all but pulled out of the market. so just no buyers anymore.

greater london is more about people wanting a home, and so the number of buyers are still there, which is why we havent seen the same drop

i only say this as my brother is sales director in notting hill. not saying we wont see a drop, we could well do, but the two markets are quite different

 

[Signalcalc]

People are selling up and shipping out of London, moving to the home counties, could also explain why prices are lowering in London and still rising outside.

 

[Atilla]

Do feel London is losing gloss and people will continue to leave along with key businesses and head quarters that's for sure.


However, wrt foreign buyers it is the currency factor that is key. Quite a few bought when pound was strong or strong-er up until 2016 post 2008 crash. Since brexit, pound lost upto 20% at one point. That's a big loss.

Moreover, if no deal or hard brexit does materialise they stand to lose what little recovery we've had in the pound.

So key question, take a risk and maintain property holding asset, or sell now and avoid potential price falls and hard brexit currency fall out?


Tough call :whistling

 

[meldge]

So respective of the wisdom of shorting the UK residential market does anyone know a way of currently doing this for the domestic investor?

 

[FXX]

So respective of the wisdom of shorting the UK residential market does anyone know a way of currently doing this for the domestic investor?

Shorting house builders perhaps and estate agents

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[Signalcalc]

Shorting house builders perhaps and estate agents

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Do those two industries have any correlation with house prices and March 19 ?

 

[FXX]

Do those two industries have any correlation with house prices and March 19 ?

If there is an exodus and prices slump those industries will definitely be affected.

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[gtopmafia]

Sale and Leaseback then repurchase