Trading Without Charts?

[counter_violent]

Theres no argument guys...if what your doing is working and happy with it...then carry on.
Only you know if this is true or not...and doesn't make a jot of difference to anyone else.

 

[Pippy5000]

balls..

 

[tenbobtrader]

......

And we spit on the wager, which I taught him, and we shake on the wager, which he taught me. And we both know thats that. He stands, takes a last drag on the butt, and says "Good night, Stevie," pretty near pleasantly ..... the whole thing's moved to another level: its not what we'd call an intellectual exercise anymore, its a wager, and futher talk would only desecrate it. From this point on on there'll just be the playing of the game, the run for the wire, with one of us ending up a winner and the other a loser.

Caleb Carr

The Angel of Darkness (1997)

 

[John1]

......

And we spit on the wager, which I taught him, and we shake on the wager, which he taught me. And we both know thats that. He stands, takes a last drag on the butt, and says "Good night, Stevie," pretty near pleasantly ..... the whole thing's moved to another level: its not what we'd call an intellectual exercise anymore, its a wager, and futher talk would only desecrate it. From this point on on there'll just be the playing of the game, the run for the wire, with one of us ending up a winner and the other a loser.

Caleb Carr

The Angel of Darkness (1997)

Hi tenbobtrader,
What an astute post!

Good Trading

 

[candles]

tea leaves

 

[TOBOR]

balls..

Right! And don't forget the rest

____________________
Tom
my autotrading journal

 

[John1]

Right! And don't forget the rest



____________________
Tom
my autotrading journal

"Torbors' comment says it all"

Hi, this is actually a reply to - morgan_edge - regarding his PM.

Many years ago I read about a successful diamond dealer who operated in a period when the diamond markets were tightly controled by a cartel. Anyone with a 101 comprehension of economics should understand the implications for the dealer. Unable to do more than scrape out a living under this handicap he began to realize that in order to survive and prosper he would have to find a more cost effective means of obtaining merchandise. One day he realized that the solution, was, and always had been staring him in the face. A cheap source of diamonds could be found in unpopular Estate jewelery ,and by simply repolishing and reseting the stones in contempory styles huge profits could be made thanks to the artificially inflated prices created by the cartel.

Ultimately he made a huge fortune.

Some of the points that should be obvious -

He could have decided to go into opposition to the cartel by finding his own diamond mine, and may have ended up spending not only years but also everthing he had, wandering around the outback lost until he finally gave up. To me this is the equivalent outcome to Charting and Indicators for most people.

If you take the time to clearly define the problem, the solution is often far simpler than you could possibly imagine. Why wasn't this opportunity arbitraged away?

Too simple for most people!

Often what appears to be strength is actually their greatest weakness. The dealer didn't need to defeat the cartel he simply leveraged off their strength.

There are many other lessons to be discovered here, but I will leave that up to you.

Most importantly, don't be baffeled by the bull****, tread your own path!

Good Trading

John1

 

[montmorencyt2w]

Hi, this is actually a reply to - morgan_edge - regarding his PM.

Many years ago I read about a successful diamond dealer who operated in a period when the diamond markets were tightly controled by a cartel. Anyone with a 101 comprehension of economics should understand the implications for the dealer. Unable to do more than scrape out a living under this handicap he began to realize that in order to survive and prosper he would have to find a more cost effective means of obtaining merchandise. One day he realized that the solution, was, and always had been staring him in the face. A cheap source of diamonds could be found in unpopular Estate jewelery ,and by simply repolishing and reseting the stones in contempory styles huge profits could be made thanks to the artificially inflated prices created by the cartel.

Ultimately he made a huge fortune.

Some of the points that should be obvious -

He could have decided to go into opposition to the cartel by finding his own diamond mine, and may have ended up spending not only years but also everthing he had, wandering around the outback lost until he finally gave up. To me this is the equivalent outcome to Charting and Indicators for most people.

If you take the time to clearly define the problem, the solution is often far simpler than you could possibly imagine. Why wasn't this opportunity arbitraged away?

Too simple for most people!

Often what appears to be strength is actually their greatest weakness. The dealer didn't need to defeat the cartel he simply leveraged of their strength.

There are many other lessons to be discovered here, but I will leave that up to you.

Most importantly, don't be baffeled by the bull****, tread your own path!

Good Trading

John1

John,

Is that actually a true story, or just an allegory?
Either way, it's a great story. Thanks.

Ultimately, I think treading your own path has to be the only way, not of course that everyone will succeed while treading their own path. It's exactly the same in conventional business.

 

[TOBOR]

"Torbors' comment says it all"

...
If you take the time to clearly define the problem, the solution is often far simpler than you could possibly imagine. Why wasn't this opportunity arbitraged away?

Too simple for most people!

...

Most importantly, don't be baffeled by the bull****, tread your own path!

Good Trading

John1

Agreed. Very well said and nice allegory.

____________________
Tom
my autotrading journal

 

[Devilicus]

Are we just talking about fundamental analysis, or maybe just reading the time and sales/DOM screen, but nobody wants to come out and say it? lol. Strange thread indeed.

 

[John1]

Are we just talking about fundamental analysis, or maybe just reading the time and sales/DOM screen, but nobody wants to come out and say it? lol. Strange thread indeed.

For my part - neither!

Good Trading

John1

 

[John1]

John,

Is that actually a true story, or just an allegory?
Either way, it's a great story. Thanks.

Ultimately, I think treading your own path has to be the only way, not of course that everyone will succeed while treading their own path. It's exactly the same in conventional business.

Successful trading is a conventional business, you are simply looking for exploitable opportunities to add value. One of the reasons that it can take years to become successful is that people often need time to develop the required business accumen.

Clear thinking, rather than delusional fantasies, must be your guiding beacon!

Good Trading

John1

 

[Devilicus]

For my part - neither!

Good Trading

John1

Not sure whats left then! lol. Not FA, or TA/ Charts/time and sales/volume analysis etc.
Maybe insider information or astrology!! ?
If anyone works out the secret answer that John has where we can all guarantee money PM me!

John, ive posted quite alot of realtime trades in my time here and have rather a good track record. Would you like to post a few so that people can at least see that your're not here to just frustrate newbies with riddles without any actual meaning??

 

[morgan_edge]

you could I think use a chart if you wanted to but its not really required

really??? Good god im confused!!

 

[John1]

I woz 2 so thought I would muddy water a bit .........

see what posts arrived after

Ten bob you truly have a wicked sense of humour!


To be honest I hadn't planned on revisiting this discussion as I found it to be extremely time consuming, but was simply being polite in answering Morgans unexpected PM, as it is now 6 weeks since I stopped posting.

It is abundently obvious that many of the posters simply read the comments and then ask for further explanation or proof without having invested any real time or energy in trying to comprehend the basic issues under discussion. If I can spend the time to reply then please have the courtesy to fully consider the observations that I have put forward.

Firstly, you need to understand that most people cannot survive outside an environment controlled by specific rules whether they originate in religion, law or simply survival of the group. Consequently, charting and indicators based on specific rules are embraced by many enthusiastcally in order for people to feel secure in the chaotic environment of the markets. Sadly what most people don't realize is that they are on a fools errand.

Recently I watched a movie called 21, it was about card counters who milked the blackjack tables in Las Vegas, apparently the movie was based on a true story. This approach is similar to the ones used by chartists - originating in probabilities. Finding the required anomilies is generally beyond the abilities of retail speculators. This is why I place them in the Diamond mine prospecting category possible but extremely unlikely.

On the other hand, I was playing Texas Holdem in Perth recently when I became involved in a conversation with the owner of a poker league. We discussed his business plan, he had a license that allowed him to promote and run cash games from which he took a 5% rake from each pot. He was also selling franchises as he grew his business, from which he received the franchise price and a cut of the future profits. Here is a person that thinks outside the norm, money for jam!

Surely, the different modes of thinking should be obvious, one group trying to scam what they could and the other building a reliable income stream with the potential to grow expotentially.

People here wish me to teach them what to think, but the most valueable lesson that I can give them is where they learn how to think.

Good Trading

John1

 

[tenbobtrader]

well .......... you got to spoof about a bit in an attempt to put a couple of corners on the map

still thinking


have to go................ watching the Trueman show again tonight


later

Andy

 

[oildaytrader]

Anyone with ideas on how to do this? I already don't use indicators. Now I would like to get rid of the charts and trade just on order flow, time of day, or anything else.....any good ideas?

follow the price and you are the winner.All you need is price , price tells you momentum and support and resistance.

I do exactly the same fully automated

 

[Devilicus]

I think what he's saying is 'dont trade at all' but open up your own spreadbetting firm or something....
I guess nobody will ever know what john is suggesting (that's if its anything at all and he's not on the 'wind up' lol, which is always possible)
Not to worry.

 

[tenbobtrader]

"If we want to buy down-and-out stocks we must wait for the market to tell us the risk has gone out of the stock, and the way we learn that is when the stock refuses to go down any more on bad news. You don't guess, estimate, daydream; you don't need to rely on faith, hope or charity; you can wait for the market to tell you. It is worth repeating yet again, that for those with patience, this is the least risky long-term style of buying stocks.

Justin Mamis, The Nature of Risk."

 

[John1]

I think what he's saying is 'dont trade at all' but open up your own spreadbetting firm or something....
I guess nobody will ever know what john is suggesting (that's if its anything at all and he's not on the 'wind up' lol, which is always possible)
Not to worry.

No, what I'm trying to do is highlight the difference between a mug punter and a professional speculator. If people wish to succeed at this business then the sooner they start thinking like a professional the better!

Good Trading

John1