Trading Without Charts?

[Trader333]

Hi Paul,
I will address Pedro01s' questions next but please be aware that I have limited time as I have agreed to entertain my 4 year old over the next few days as my wife works on her masters, and I will be on a plane first thing sunday morning.

Good Trading

John,

Fair points and if you don't get time then maybe when you come back.


Paul

 

[pedro01]

Hi Pedro01,
We seem to be at cross purposes, me viewing things from a intuative perspective and you from a conventional perspective. As such I need to be more aware of these differences in perspective.

Well - you are talking in riddles to an extent. The term 'conventional' is subjective. You can see the impact of traditional trading styles as they occur & get stopped out. This may be conventional to you because it's based on taking advantage of the "Trading for Dummies" traders.

On the other hand, trading based on intuition completely is certainly unconventional but I suspect there is more to what you do than intuition.

When I spoke about who you are trading against I was referring to their approach within the sphere of trading not a specific group of people. Also I am not talking about anyone running stops, you will generally find this occuring when the market is not over extended, that is where the majority of chartists/ TA proponents enter. Why do you think that funds run by professionals would buy stocks willy nilly without considering situational issues,I can think of strategies they might employ to overcome short term price inefficiencys why can't they, any business that is not performance based will not survive in the long run.

Your thinking on this issue is quite conventional.

Consider tracker funds they MUST invest in the underlying. For tracker UITs (apart from cash drag), they pretty much track the underlying. Checkout SPY - people did not stop buying SPY because of the bear market.

Consider funds that MUST cash in because of redemption after poor performance (not talking about trackers).

Consider arbitrage trading where you'll get in on 2 sides to take advantage of a discrepancty (ETF APs exist pretty much to do this). These are all cases where a position is taken/exited without much worry about the entry point of that transaction & the profit on it. There's plenty of trading going on that is not about making $$$ on that specific transaction. So - when you take a position, you are not always trading gainst someone who's concern is profit on that position.

In previous posts I referred to introspection, I cannot express how important it is to seriously consider, yourself, each piece of the puzzle and how they intergrate, look at the bottom look at the sides turn it inside out, whatever it takes, insights that I've discovered have often taken months or even years to reveal themselves and still I cannot be sure that I have achieved the full benefit. Whether you realize it or not my posts contain many hidden insights but it is up to you to reveal them in the form that your personality operates.

Good Trading

There are many ways up the mountain. Are you saying here that your introspective path is the only one you can take ?

 

[virtuos0]

Returning for a moment to the original purpose of this thread, I have been struck with a thought.

Much scorn is poured upon indicators such as MACD or RSI, mainly because they are visual representations of aspects of price action that only serve to obscure the reality of how price is moving. But if I relate that same idea to the chart itself, is it reasonable to say that it is also merely an indicator of price, and that it serves to obscure in some way the reality of price action?

If I apply these thoughts to my preferred style of trading (long term moves, daily/weekly) I am having a few thoughts about how I could use this to my advantage.

 

[John1]

sorry i was referring to a previous poster on this site who used to quite like allegories and metaphors and hidden things...i wasn't really going to add any personal input beyond that but i find them to be unhelpful, i tend to be quite simple like that, if you want to say something say it. I have lost the thread of this discussion somewhat.

Hi cr6196,
No problem that's probably why charting is so popular, it's quick and simple. Just a quick explanation regarding the comment. I talked about the different perceptions many of the posters and I have which causes confusion. There was never a single Ah moment but rather an ongoing and continuing series of moments which continue today and no doubt for as long as I stay at it. Before my wife went to bed over an hour ago she said " you know john you will have to get of the computer at some point" and she is correct, as she usually is. I've spent a lot of time that had been earmarked for my family on this thread. All I'm saying to the people in the discussion is "if you are interested in finding out more then you need to go back and re-read the posts as many times as you need to understand the implications in order to gain some benefit and if you are not interested then there isn't much point in continuing with repetition as I need to focus more on my family. I've already stated that I don't intend to post the nitty gritty of my approach on an internet blog, but if people after they have seriously examinded my comments have querys then I will probably be available to help if I can, as any posts and/or PMs register on my email. I'm not trying to blow people off, but rather that there is a lot of information to be digested before we are even close to being on the same page.

Good Trading

 

[John1]

Returning for a moment to the original purpose of this thread, I have been struck with a thought.

Much scorn is poured upon indicators such as MACD or RSI, mainly because they are visual representations of aspects of price action that only serve to obscure the reality of how price is moving. But if I relate that same idea to the chart itself, is it reasonable to say that it is also merely an indicator of price, and that it serves to obscure in some way the reality of price action?

If I apply these thoughts to my preferred style of trading (long term moves, daily/weekly) I am having a few thoughts about how I could use this to my advantage.

Hi virtuos0,
Nice catch!

Good Trading

 

[John1]

Well - you are talking in riddles to an extent. The term 'conventional' is subjective. You can see the impact of traditional trading styles as they occur & get stopped out. This may be conventional to you because it's based on taking advantage of the "Trading for Dummies" traders.

On the other hand, trading based on intuition completely is certainly unconventional but I suspect there is more to what you do than intuition.



Your thinking on this issue is quite conventional.

Consider tracker funds they MUST invest in the underlying. For tracker UITs (apart from cash drag), they pretty much track the underlying. Checkout SPY - people did not stop buying SPY because of the bear market.

Consider funds that MUST cash in because of redemption after poor performance (not talking about trackers).

Consider arbitrage trading where you'll get in on 2 sides to take advantage of a discrepancty (ETF APs exist pretty much to do this). These are all cases where a position is taken/exited without much worry about the entry point of that transaction & the profit on it. There's plenty of trading going on that is not about making $$$ on that specific transaction. So - when you take a position, you are not always trading gainst someone who's concern is profit on that position.



There are many ways up the mountain. Are you saying here that your introspective path is the only one you can take ?

Hi Pedro01,
In reply to your question, no not at all, and a post that I made earlier basically stated this!

Good Trading

 

[pedro01]

So to summarise.

John is saying something deep in his posts. If you can't see it, then keep re-reading the posts. If the grail is still not forthcoming, then PM/email him for more info and he will enlighten the chosen few.

Is my cynical thinking too conventional ?

 

[John1]

So to summarise.

John is saying something deep in his posts. If you can't see it, then keep re-reading the posts. If the grail is still not forthcoming, then PM/email him for more info and he will enlighten the chosen few.

Is my cynical thinking too conventional ?

Hi Pedro01,

I don't know about conventional, but the appropriate words that come to my mind are, misguided and misplaced.

Good Trading

 

[tomorton]

Hi pedro01 - No need to be cynical I am sure. I don't doubt that John1 makes money. He promised us comments only, no hard details re his strategy. He kept to his word. What a waste of time.

 

[virtuos0]

I think that the highest accolade you can pay to any contributor to a forum is "you made me think", and I can say that to John1. I can say it about Socrates too. Whether both or either of them happens to be a looney I don't know or care.

I have a train of thought I would like to pursue, whether it amounts to anything I do not know, but if it amounts to nothing I have lost nothing.

 

[cpngtw]

Don't have time to read all of the posts here, just skimming thru some recent posts, but I found lots of reasons to smile

Cool off people, grab a drink and think life has many many facets

 

[John1]

I think that the highest accolade you can pay to any contributor to a forum is "you made me think", and I can say that to John1. I can say it about Socrates too. Whether both or either of them happens to be a looney I don't know or care.

I have a train of thought I would like to pursue, whether it amounts to anything I do not know, but if it amounts to nothing I have lost nothing.

Hi virtuos0,

Mate, you are the third person to make my day so thank you. I am now going to thank the other two.

Good Trading

 

[pedro01]

Hi Pedro01,

I don't know about conventional, but the appropriate words that come to my mind are, misguided and misplaced.

Good Trading

I have 3 words for you John.

Cheek In Tongue.

Re-arrange as you see fit

 

[John1]

Hi pedro01 - No need to be cynical I am sure. I don't doubt that John1 makes money. He promised us comments only, no hard details re his strategy. He kept to his word. What a waste of time.

Hi pedro01 &tomorton,
I simply can't thank you enough, I still don't know how I even got involved in this discussion but man have I ended up spending some hours on what was begining to feel like a fruitless excersize, but then along came you guys. When I comprehended the implications of you behavior I found myself virtually rolling around the office floor with tears flowing and nearly peeing myself laughing.

Consider this scenario -

Two men feeling a bit frisky walk into the only nightclub where they spy a married couple standing at the bar. They start talking to the couple, after a while the the husband says that he has to go and that he will pick up the wife at closing time. After the husband goes they start buying the woman drinks and talking to her, she repeatedly tells them that she isn't going to give them what they want, unperturbed they continue on. At closing time the husband picks her up and leaves. The two men get angry and chuck a wobbly because they don't get what they want. Does this story remind you of the behavior exhibited by anyone?

Seriously, do you pair have any comprehension how childish you appear?

But once again thanks for the laugh.

For the other posters my actions here have been in good faith.

Good Trading

 

[cpngtw]

Maybe "Good Trading" needs to be changed to "Good Posting" instead?

 

[pedro01]

Hi pedro01 &tomorton,
I simply can't thank you enough, I still don't know how I even got involved in this discussion but man have I ended up spending some hours on what was begining to feel like a fruitless excersize, but then along came you guys. When I comprehended the implications of you behavior I found myself virtually rolling around the office floor with tears flowing and nearly peeing myself laughing.

Consider this scenario -

Two men feeling a bit frisky walk into the only nightclub where they spy a married couple standing at the bar. They start talking to the couple, after a while the the husband says that he has to go and that he will pick up the wife at closing time. After the husband goes they start buying the woman drinks and talking to her, she repeatedly tells them that she isn't going to give them what they want, unperturbed they continue on. At closing time the husband picks her up and leaves. The two men get angry and chuck a wobbly because they don't get what they want. Does this story remind you of the behavior exhibited by anyone?

Seriously, do you pair have any comprehension how childish you appear?

But once again thanks for the laugh.

For the other posters my actions here have been in good faith.

Good Trading

Good work John. Let's follow your analogy a little further.

2 guys walk into a bar & meet a single guy who claims his stunning girlfriend is in the toilet. He tells them about how pretty his missus is and how great she is in bed and how great her cooking is. They comment for a second about how his girlfriend is spending a long time in the toilet and he gets all defensive. One guy tells him to chill out and that "sh1t or get off the pot" was just a joke but he gets all high & mighty about how his woman could be Miss World and that they don't even have women.

At the end of the night, the 2 guys' girlfriends walk in. They go to the toilet and come out saying that the toilet was empty. The 2 guys leave the nightclub with their beautiful women and leave the lonely guy and his imaginary woman drowning their sorrows in scotch & imaginary scotch.

The interweb is a glorious thing. As is sarcasm.

 

[counter_violent]

This thread shouldn't really be playing on my mind, as I've been reasonably successful and consistent for quite a while now mainly WITH using charts/TA, but what ways of trading are there that dont use charts? Trading stocks based on company analysis/numbers? Trading off of the DOM maybe?
I have a system for the DOW that ive used with good effect for years which i trade purely off of an excel spreadsheet, so maybe that's what we're talking about?
Anyone gonna give a clue? Counter_Violent? You seem to be on John's wave length??

Well actually that is the whole point. This thread IS playing on your mind and I expect it is playing on a lot of members minds. It forces everyone to think. It forces everyone to think about what they don't know.....the gaps in their knowledge. The thoughts that what they are doing currently that works ok, ok'ish, ok then sometimes, ok well not quite often enough for their liking, So everyone who now realises they don't know enough have already won, because they have just had a wake up call....weather they pursue a course of action or not is up to them...but the ones that do will be better informed and equipped than the ones that don't.

Ok so newbie traders hear about trading and they get some charts and indicators, a demo account then a S B account etc all very exciting eh...they are going to make a killing ! ...maybe not today or this week or this month, but eventually they are going to clean up right ! Wrong !

Ok well enough of the rambling nonsense side of things.....I am definitely not going to do this work for anyone...what I will do is throw some words onto the page and make of them what you will !

Measure
Measuring
Weigh
Balance
Compare
Concurrent
Crosscurrent
Strength
Weakness
Correlate
Isolation
Counting
Sequencing

Looking at charts and indicators will not get anyone the depth of information they need to make informed trading decisions in order that they may conquer the markets and particularly when observing and trading One instrument in isolation.

 

[pedro01]

As well as the things that CV mentions, an understanding of confirmation bias is necessary before you start looking at anything trading related.

 

[morgan_edge]

so it turns out that there IS a holy grail, but only a few members know about it. A Secret, under lock and key. Bearing mind that I dont even know what it is, never mind what to do with it if it were to jump out at me, I think ill carry on as i was, lol.
Either that or we're actually talking about something that we all know about already, but the talking in riddles game is making us overthink everything!!

 

[cr6196]

the reason why this thread is playing on peoples mind, is the same reason why journey to the basement was so popular, none of this stuff actually means anything, and what you do make of it is a reflection of your personality rather than having anything to do with the external environment. The only reason it forces you to think is cos there is nothing to think about. Trade any way you want and be objective.