Trading with point and figure

spx into NFP
it could pop as far as 2020 area/horizontal count..if it gets activated
2114 area/marked last weekend needs to go first

2m2uxqp.gif
 
dax
trends shown on the chart posted
if that aqua trendline holds or horizontal supp...then we pump
tricky...could go either
way
spx far more bullish
 
Decent movement off 9658. Still looking for a SF of that area or 9709. Will see what the US session brings.
 
Accidentally - zapped. Sorry.

- 2014 which was acting as good S/R level. Thought we'd go down.


Perhaps not down but up. Going for 2119 - PP-R2. Level 14 breached.

Strong stuff.
 
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US June 2016 Labour report: Payrolls underline labour demand solid, but no immediate domestic pressure on Fed

a) Payrolls / Establishment survey - At +287K this was an easy beat, even when accounting for the 35K boost from the end of the Verizon strike, with the downward revision to May to 11K actually proving that May was an outlier, given that April was revised up to 144K. As ever the more reliable indicator is the 3-mth average, which stands at 147K, against a Fed breakeven rate 80-100K. One caveat on the June strength was that the biggest gain was a likely seasonal 59K rise in Leisure/hospitality; but there were also solid gains in Professional/business +38LK, Manufacturing +14K, Information +44K and Govt +22K.

b) Unemployment Rate / Household Report - Slightly higher than expected rise Unemployment Rate to 4.9% due to 414K rise in the Workforce after 820K fall in prior months, though many will highlight the 347K rise in Unemployment, the net fall for Q2 Unemployment was 183K. Participation (62.7%) and Underemployment (9.6%) Rates improve 0.1 ppt on the month. Key point remains that with the pool of available labour at low levels, and given well documented skills shortages (see last Beige Book), this is a solid gain.

c) Average Weekly Hours - Disappointing in the sense that this was 34.4 for a fifth month, following readings of 34.5/34.6 throughout March 2014 to January 2016 period, Mining continues to be a big drag with hours falling to 42.7 from 43.8 in May, Manufacturing Hours unchanged at 40.7 implying a flat m/m input for Industrial Production

d) Average Hourly Earnings - Below forecast at 0.1% m/m but still up to 2.6% y/y (f'cast 0.2% m/m 2.7% y/y), which is also the annualized year to date pace. This is probably best described as Fed neutral, in other words not too hot, not too cold.

e) Market reaction - A knee-jerk sell-off in Treasuries proved to be very short-lived with the Treasury market reverting to curve flattening (see Table), while the USD's gains were also no more than a blink of an eye (JPY testing key 100.00 level), while the rally in the S&P e-mini future has thus far been modest. US Q2 earnings start to dribble in next week, and there are a raft of key US data: Retail Sales, CPI, PPI, as well as NFIB Small Business Optimism, and Treasury issuance total $68 Bln of 3, 10 & 30-yr, with a rush of corporate issuance possible ahead of earnings seasons lockdowns.
from Marc Ostwald
 
there is no sign of a top as yet..the most you can expect is short scalps off the 2130 horizontal rez area
there is a breakout area at 2125.50 and horizontal supp at 2123,50 area
seems to be a decent pivot at 2116-2119 area ...also a 50% area..if 2123 breaks
a minor downtrend started on 1 min near the close
otherwise thats it...its pretty bullish as we said on Friday at the open


it really needs to bounce off one of our pivots and create a minor top with price action creating a sloping downtrend line on at least 1-5 minute data..preferably 5 min
no other price movement is valid..uneless its a scalp
 
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gbpusd/cable
gettin a bit bullish..if it pops

nb7ngo.gif

rez starts at 1.3100
could even pump to 1.3400 area
 
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dax
breakout area is 9648-9660
there is a pivot at 9731 area.could overshoot that to 9750
needs to saty above horizontal supp area at 9594
9700/rez
9713/count target/rez
 
9709 4th July XETRA day close. Also an VAL. Could see an opening pump into that area, and then move off. If so, 9629 should provide decent support. I see no signs of a top either so shorts would only be scalps imho.
 
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