C
cantagril
Back on again to see that it basically touched my entry at 5102 and then headed south and is now at my first TP of 75. Yet another flawless demonstration of how to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
- Watchers 90
Back on again to see that it basically touched my entry at 5102 and then headed south and is now at my first TP of 75. Yet another flawless demonstration of how to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.
C
cantagril
....and another fine morning in Cantaland:
...and of course, now that I'm no longer in there, we're now at 5040c. (07h25) and might well get 5000 today - the encouraging message from the Chinese Ambassador to the UK (essentially an undisguised threat) could help out a tad. ..
Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks 
😁😁😁😍😍😍😍🤪🤪🤪😜😜🤓🤓🤓
😁😁😁😍😍😍😍🤪🤪🤪😜😜🤓🤓🤓
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 7 July 2020 - ADM ISI
- Digesting disappointing run of Japan Wages, Household Spending and German
Industrial Production and expected RBA rate hold; awaiting Sweden
Production, Italy Retail Sales, Taiwan Trade and US JOLTS Job Openings
and bevvy of Fed speakers; UK, Germany & US to auction debt; EIA Short-
term Energy Outlook
- Oil markets to focus on EIA estimate of demand recovery; market pricing
ltd scope for further gains
- Markets continuing to ignore dire forecasts for Q2 corporate earnings,
recovery hopes eminently emboldened by China & US Services surveys
- Charts/Tables: WTI futures curve & historical volatility; S&P 500 index
vs 12-mth forward EPS
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Once again, the day's schedule has a goody volume of data and events to digest, but there are few if any item that are likely to create more than a small ripple in today's price action, with unscheduled Covid-19 and political news far more likely to attract attention, even if markets' reaction function remains severely impaired, and is all too often either perverse or whimsical. A cursory look at Factset's weekly Earnings Insights report: https://insight.factset.com/ and the chart of 12-mth Forward EPS vs the S&P500 index underlines the extent of the disconnect from anything fundamental, other than central banks die hard determination to create excess liquidity to keep markets afloat, and totally devoid of anything that might be term risk or term premia. That said, the much stronger than expected Non-manufacturing ISM, above all the huge surge in what used to be the headline Business Activity Index to a 9-yr high of 66.0 from 41.0, paced by strength in New Orders (61.6 vs .41.9) offered more than a glimmer of hope, and if sustained, suggests a more robust recovery than most have been anticipating, even if the Employment Index remained subdued (43.1 vs. 31.8), which it would typically in the initial stages of any recovery, and followed the much better than expected China Services PMI.
There are Japan's Wages and Household Spending, German Industrial Production (all considerably worse than expected) and French Trade to digest along with the as expected no change decision from the RBA, which maintained its cautious optimism that the trough has been passed economically, but stressed that rates will remain at current levels for a protracted period, and that the onus in terms of stimulus to support the recovery from the pandemic would be on the fiscal side. Ahead lie Italian Retail Sales, Taiwan Trade and US JOLTS Job Openings along with a bevvy of Fed speakers, with Atlanta Fed's Bostic sounding a downbeat note in an FT interview, suggesting the recovery has already lost momentum. Govt bond supply takes the shape of UK 3 & 21-yr Gilts, German I-L 10-yr and the first leg of this week's US funding operation via way of $46 Bln of 3-yr. Oil markets will be looking to the EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook, with the focus less on supply given signs that OPEC+ production compliance has improved, and rather more on the still very uncertain outlook for when and how demand will pick up as the global economy recovers from the colossal economic damage from the pandemic. The very flat structure of the WTI futures curve (see table) and a still elevated level of volatility (see chart) reflects both the uncertainty, and for the time being a lack of belief that demand will pick up meaningfully in the next 12 months, and acknowledges that any pick up will be met swiftly with a rise in output, above all due to many sovereigns' beleaguered budgetary positions.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
| Inbox | x |
| 08:26 (53 minutes ago) |
|
- Digesting disappointing run of Japan Wages, Household Spending and German
Industrial Production and expected RBA rate hold; awaiting Sweden
Production, Italy Retail Sales, Taiwan Trade and US JOLTS Job Openings
and bevvy of Fed speakers; UK, Germany & US to auction debt; EIA Short-
term Energy Outlook
- Oil markets to focus on EIA estimate of demand recovery; market pricing
ltd scope for further gains
- Markets continuing to ignore dire forecasts for Q2 corporate earnings,
recovery hopes eminently emboldened by China & US Services surveys
- Charts/Tables: WTI futures curve & historical volatility; S&P 500 index
vs 12-mth forward EPS
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Once again, the day's schedule has a goody volume of data and events to digest, but there are few if any item that are likely to create more than a small ripple in today's price action, with unscheduled Covid-19 and political news far more likely to attract attention, even if markets' reaction function remains severely impaired, and is all too often either perverse or whimsical. A cursory look at Factset's weekly Earnings Insights report: https://insight.factset.com/ and the chart of 12-mth Forward EPS vs the S&P500 index underlines the extent of the disconnect from anything fundamental, other than central banks die hard determination to create excess liquidity to keep markets afloat, and totally devoid of anything that might be term risk or term premia. That said, the much stronger than expected Non-manufacturing ISM, above all the huge surge in what used to be the headline Business Activity Index to a 9-yr high of 66.0 from 41.0, paced by strength in New Orders (61.6 vs .41.9) offered more than a glimmer of hope, and if sustained, suggests a more robust recovery than most have been anticipating, even if the Employment Index remained subdued (43.1 vs. 31.8), which it would typically in the initial stages of any recovery, and followed the much better than expected China Services PMI.
There are Japan's Wages and Household Spending, German Industrial Production (all considerably worse than expected) and French Trade to digest along with the as expected no change decision from the RBA, which maintained its cautious optimism that the trough has been passed economically, but stressed that rates will remain at current levels for a protracted period, and that the onus in terms of stimulus to support the recovery from the pandemic would be on the fiscal side. Ahead lie Italian Retail Sales, Taiwan Trade and US JOLTS Job Openings along with a bevvy of Fed speakers, with Atlanta Fed's Bostic sounding a downbeat note in an FT interview, suggesting the recovery has already lost momentum. Govt bond supply takes the shape of UK 3 & 21-yr Gilts, German I-L 10-yr and the first leg of this week's US funding operation via way of $46 Bln of 3-yr. Oil markets will be looking to the EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook, with the focus less on supply given signs that OPEC+ production compliance has improved, and rather more on the still very uncertain outlook for when and how demand will pick up as the global economy recovers from the colossal economic damage from the pandemic. The very flat structure of the WTI futures curve (see table) and a still elevated level of volatility (see chart) reflects both the uncertainty, and for the time being a lack of belief that demand will pick up meaningfully in the next 12 months, and acknowledges that any pick up will be met swiftly with a rise in output, above all due to many sovereigns' beleaguered budgetary positions.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
C
cantagril
...and another stellar trade from Team C:
I've been sitting on an EG short since last Thursday - entry at .9030 thinking that it might give me 30 pips odd. It didn't and yesterday by the time I'd got the boiler fired up on my PC it had already gone underwater....and, of course, I held on to it. In my defence, I've been playing about with a new strategy involving HMAs and had I been looking at a p&f chart as below (2.5 x 3) I might not have done what I done did.
Anyway, if it gets me somewhere between .9010/20 I'll probably get rid....other things to do and all that. The horrible dotted fucshia vertical represents my Entry, the quality of which more than matched my taste in colour:
I've been sitting on an EG short since last Thursday - entry at .9030 thinking that it might give me 30 pips odd. It didn't and yesterday by the time I'd got the boiler fired up on my PC it had already gone underwater....and, of course, I held on to it. In my defence, I've been playing about with a new strategy involving HMAs and had I been looking at a p&f chart as below (2.5 x 3) I might not have done what I done did.
Anyway, if it gets me somewhere between .9010/20 I'll probably get rid....other things to do and all that. The horrible dotted fucshia vertical represents my Entry, the quality of which more than matched my taste in colour:
C
cantagril
C
cantagril
No trading today to speak of....not p&f anyway.
Had a punt on the Dax with a short from 12970 earlier on which turned out OK. No idea how things might turn out tomorrow but I'd reckon that direction is going to be a distant second to volatility, so on the basis that we've come up very quickly with nothing concrete but lots of feel-good icing news, I'm looking at another modest short. Preferably from as close to 13k as I'm given with a target of around 12800:
Chart is 20 x 4 - rectangle is zone that I used for TP on that earlier trade
Had a punt on the Dax with a short from 12970 earlier on which turned out OK. No idea how things might turn out tomorrow but I'd reckon that direction is going to be a distant second to volatility, so on the basis that we've come up very quickly with nothing concrete but lots of feel-good icing news, I'm looking at another modest short. Preferably from as close to 13k as I'm given with a target of around 12800:
Chart is 20 x 4 - rectangle is zone that I used for TP on that earlier trade
C
cantagril
Had a try from 12950 last night and left a TP of 801....and see that it got down to 12806 at 04h15 odd whilst I was still snoring.
C
cantagril
Stopped out on the way back up 12853 +97. Now flat.
Left another (optimistic) sell order in at 12950 but only got to 935 odd. Still reckon that the greater range atm is 950/800 but so far have been too greedy both ends.
Chart 12.5 x 3
C
cantagril
Eventually got my 950 and now thinking about getting rid....currently (15h30) trading just under 900 - 50 pips being better than sfa....I don't have Postie's patience...or confidence
C
cantagril
Eventually got my 950 and now thinking about getting rid....currently (15h30) trading just under 900 - 50 pips being better than sfa....I don't have Postie's patience...or confidence
Out 896 +54. Done for the week.
ATB to all for a good w/e
C
cantagril
A modest Cac long this a.m - stopped out for about a third of what was possible. Trail too tight.
Now short from 5100 with range opened up a bit....TPs 5050/25/00
Context chart 5 x 3
Now short from 5100 with range opened up a bit....TPs 5050/25/00
Context chart 5 x 3
C
cantagril
Cac short itm (around 5075 atm - 15h05)
Fixed stop at +1
Revised TP 5050 firm....dependant on pa of course.
Chart 2.5 x 1
Fixed stop at +1
Revised TP 5050 firm....dependant on pa of course.
Chart 2.5 x 1
Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks 🤪 🤪 🤪 🤪 🤪 🤓 🤓 🤓 😍 😍 😍 😍 🥰🤓🤓
🤓 🤓 🤓 😍 😍 😍 😍 🥰🤓🤓
Dentalfloss
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Dow updated
We should be in a decent rez area
We should be in a decent rez area
Dentalfloss
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Updated
but...That rez..?? Dunno
but...That rez..?? Dunno
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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