Dentalfloss
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Bulls need to keep it above 11900
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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DXY over the last 2 weeks
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Cable in support#
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UJ in a supp area .Will nfp save the day?
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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EG in support
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Dax into the open
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A tad overbought
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In rez
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Our rez workin nicely
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pivot
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Will it hold.?
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Maybe
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 4 October 2019 - ADM ISI
- All eyes on 'pivotal' US labour data; digesting Oz Retail Sales, expected
RBI rate cut, poor India Services PMIs; also awaiting another busy run of
Fed speak; UK New Car Registrations & US/Canada Trade; Trade tensions
and Brexit still key in terms of unscheduled headlines
- India rate cut as expected, but limited if any impact if no moves to
resolve banking sector NPL nightmare, speed structural reforms
- U.S.A. Payrolls: 'whisper' below already low consensus forecast, but still
pegged well above breakeven pace, perspective required
- U.S.A. Average Hourly Earnings: seen sustaining trend uptick
- Charts: S&P500 vs WTI Oil futures, Fed October rate probabilities,
USD FRA/OIS spread
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-4-october-2019/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
While US labour data have not the sort of juggernaut on the monthly schedule of statistics that they once were, today's report has rather more sensitivity following the run of soft / poor PMIs/ISMs. It is accompanied by US & Canadian Trade data, with the UK also awaiting New Car Registrations, even if the latter are subordinated any Brexit developments or soundbites. As has been the case all week, there is no shortage of ECB and Fed speakers, the latter given added poignancy by potential reaction to the US labour data, and the fact that there are 3 governors on the rostrum: Powell, Brainard and Quarles. There is the RBI's rate cut to digest, and the hint of more to come. But as I have suggested in the latest edition of The Ghost In The Machine, the RBI easing cycle will reap little reward, unless transmission mechanism is unclogged, and structural reforms implemented --> see: https://content.yudu.com/web/400wi/...er-services%2Fthe-ghost-in-the-machine&page=8
The week ahead brings a goodly volume of major data including US CPI & PPI, German and Japanese Orders, Trade and Production in many Eurozone countries, and monthly GDP and the usual raft of accompanying activity data in the UK, which also has BRC Retail Sales. There are the September FOMC and ECB minutes along with another deluge of BoE, BoJ, ECB & Fed speakers. But it will be the China/US Trade talks, the heightened US/EU Trade tensions, and the brinkmanship around Brexit which command most attention, and likely to feed a seasonally typical and elevated level of volatility in asset markets.
** U.S.A. - September Labour report **
- There is perhaps some irony that Wednesday's ADP report, in combination with both ISM surveys, has spawned a plethora of commentary suggesting that US labour demand is staring into an abyss, even the 5K rise in weekly jobless claims to a super low 219K has been co-opted by some as further evidence. The irony is that the ADP report has been very wide of Private Payrolls (up & down) on so many occasions in the past year, and the Non-Mfg ISM Employment index has long been a poor guide to Services Payrolls. Be that as it may, a reminder that with the Unemployment Rate below 4.0%, the breakeven rate for payrolls growth is in the 80-100K region, and the average 150K (once annual revisions are applied) remains solid, particularly given the volume of business confidence sapping, trade related boulders in the road which the Trump regime has and continues to burden the US economy with. It is fair to say that the Street, which is discounting a >90% chance of an October 30 Fed 25 bps rate cut, has a 'whisper' reading that is well below
the consensus expectation of 148K in headline Payrolls, and a modest bounce from 97K to 130 for Private Payrolls. As previously noted, 2020 census related hiring, if 2010 'trends' are any guide, will probably create a lot of volatility in govt related hiring over the next 6 months, and of course there are always revisions. The Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged at 3.7%, but the focus in the household survey remains on the Underemployment (last 7.2%) and Participation Rates (63.2%). Average Hourly Earnings have been quite strong in recent months, with August's 0.4% m/m following 0.3% m/m in the prior two months, and are projected to turn out at 0.3% m/m in September for an unchanged 3.2% y/y.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ==============
| Inbox | x |
| 08:39 (43 minutes ago) |
|
- All eyes on 'pivotal' US labour data; digesting Oz Retail Sales, expected
RBI rate cut, poor India Services PMIs; also awaiting another busy run of
Fed speak; UK New Car Registrations & US/Canada Trade; Trade tensions
and Brexit still key in terms of unscheduled headlines
- India rate cut as expected, but limited if any impact if no moves to
resolve banking sector NPL nightmare, speed structural reforms
- U.S.A. Payrolls: 'whisper' below already low consensus forecast, but still
pegged well above breakeven pace, perspective required
- U.S.A. Average Hourly Earnings: seen sustaining trend uptick
- Charts: S&P500 vs WTI Oil futures, Fed October rate probabilities,
USD FRA/OIS spread
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-4-october-2019/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
While US labour data have not the sort of juggernaut on the monthly schedule of statistics that they once were, today's report has rather more sensitivity following the run of soft / poor PMIs/ISMs. It is accompanied by US & Canadian Trade data, with the UK also awaiting New Car Registrations, even if the latter are subordinated any Brexit developments or soundbites. As has been the case all week, there is no shortage of ECB and Fed speakers, the latter given added poignancy by potential reaction to the US labour data, and the fact that there are 3 governors on the rostrum: Powell, Brainard and Quarles. There is the RBI's rate cut to digest, and the hint of more to come. But as I have suggested in the latest edition of The Ghost In The Machine, the RBI easing cycle will reap little reward, unless transmission mechanism is unclogged, and structural reforms implemented --> see: https://content.yudu.com/web/400wi/...er-services%2Fthe-ghost-in-the-machine&page=8
The week ahead brings a goodly volume of major data including US CPI & PPI, German and Japanese Orders, Trade and Production in many Eurozone countries, and monthly GDP and the usual raft of accompanying activity data in the UK, which also has BRC Retail Sales. There are the September FOMC and ECB minutes along with another deluge of BoE, BoJ, ECB & Fed speakers. But it will be the China/US Trade talks, the heightened US/EU Trade tensions, and the brinkmanship around Brexit which command most attention, and likely to feed a seasonally typical and elevated level of volatility in asset markets.
** U.S.A. - September Labour report **
- There is perhaps some irony that Wednesday's ADP report, in combination with both ISM surveys, has spawned a plethora of commentary suggesting that US labour demand is staring into an abyss, even the 5K rise in weekly jobless claims to a super low 219K has been co-opted by some as further evidence. The irony is that the ADP report has been very wide of Private Payrolls (up & down) on so many occasions in the past year, and the Non-Mfg ISM Employment index has long been a poor guide to Services Payrolls. Be that as it may, a reminder that with the Unemployment Rate below 4.0%, the breakeven rate for payrolls growth is in the 80-100K region, and the average 150K (once annual revisions are applied) remains solid, particularly given the volume of business confidence sapping, trade related boulders in the road which the Trump regime has and continues to burden the US economy with. It is fair to say that the Street, which is discounting a >90% chance of an October 30 Fed 25 bps rate cut, has a 'whisper' reading that is well below
the consensus expectation of 148K in headline Payrolls, and a modest bounce from 97K to 130 for Private Payrolls. As previously noted, 2020 census related hiring, if 2010 'trends' are any guide, will probably create a lot of volatility in govt related hiring over the next 6 months, and of course there are always revisions. The Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged at 3.7%, but the focus in the household survey remains on the Underemployment (last 7.2%) and Participation Rates (63.2%). Average Hourly Earnings have been quite strong in recent months, with August's 0.4% m/m following 0.3% m/m in the prior two months, and are projected to turn out at 0.3% m/m in September for an unchanged 3.2% y/y.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ==============
Dentalfloss
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dumps from our line
