Dentalfloss
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needs to be support
Trading with point and figure
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Dentalfloss
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Ditto
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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donkey ride
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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still a tad vulnerable
needs to get above purple and horizontal....and stay there
needs to get above purple and horizontal....and stay there
Dentalfloss
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stops tight
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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As we said.Twaz vulnerable
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 3 October 2019 - ADM ISI
- US/EU Trade tensions & Brexit in focus, Services PMIs and Turkish CPI top
data schedule, deluge of ECB, Riksbank and Fed speakers; France/Spain
govt bond auctions; ECJ ruling on Polish CHF mortgages resolution due
- Services PMIs: contagion effect from Manufacturing the big question,
particularly in respect of US Non-Manufacturing ISM
- Turkey: steep decline in CPI and fall in oil prices gives TCMB plenty
of scope for more aggressive rate cuts; politics and NPLs still a risk
- Charts: WTI vs S&P500 e-min; S&P500 vs US HY bond spread; US HY bond All
sector vs. Energy spread; VIX and MOVE volatility indices
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-3-october-2019/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The fall-out in terms of US/EU trade tensions from the WTO ruling on Airbus subsidies will inevitably the focal point for today, along with what happens next in the Brexit process, as the EU gives a typical cautious reaction which primarily seeks to avoid closing doors, without offering any sense that any progress with this latest UK ultimatum offer. Services PMIs dominate an otherwise very modest run of data, with holidays in China, South Korea and Germany thinning market volumes, while central bank speakers are in chronic oversupply; 1x BoJ, 4x Fed, 3x each for ECB & Riksbank, and to round things off there is also the Russia Energy Forum, which will see a meeting between Russia Energy Minister Novak and his Saudi counterpart Abdulaziz bin Salman. France and Spain both hold multi-maturity bond auctions, and with CPI still elevated (3.9% y/y) though falling, Romania's central bank is expected to hold rates at 2.50%. Given that even normally dovish FOMC members such as Chicago Fed's Evans are signalling that they see little immediate need for a further rate cut, while markets have shifted from pricing no more than a 40% chance of a cut at the October meeting to now discounting a 70% chance at that meeting, Fed speakers are going to have be rather more vocal in 'pushing back' against market expectations, if they are not to run the risk of surprising, i.e. disappointing markets at this month's meeting, clearly tomorrow's Payrolls and Wages data could prove pivotal in that respect. As for the ECB, leaving aside the acute tensions between the German contingent and Draghi, it is probably safe to observe that the next major event will not be Draghi's farewell council meeting, but rather the fact that just 3 days after taking over from home, Lagarde makes her first major speech in Berlin, where she will be sharing a platform with none other than former German Finance Minister Schaeuble, who has recently joined the ranks of those calling for the govt to abandon its 'Schwarze Null' balanced budget. Also on today's agenda, there is a very important ruling expected from the ECJ this morning, which could impact the ongoing Polish electoral campaign (October 13) and banking sector, and relating to the Polish CHF mortgage debacle, for some background, do check out this Tweet thread from Johannes Borgen .
Turkish CPI has also just been published, and fell even more sharply than expected at the headline level (1.0% m/m 9.26% y/y vs. f'cast 9.7% and August 15.0%) and as expected on Core CPI (7.54% y/y vs. August 13.6%). Per se this gives the TCMB plenty of scope for another very aggressive rate cut (300/350 bps) in keeping with its current policy target of ensuring an appropriate level of real interest rates, which on the current nominal rate of 16.50% are clearly far too high for a weak economy, with inflation falling rapidly. Falling oil prices will only help that cause, but the twin risks of politics, above all renewed tensions with Russia over Syria, and the escalating NPL problem in the financial sector remain very real.
** World - Sept Services PMIs/ISM **
- Today's run of PMIs essentially boil down to one specific question, how much contagion from those weak Manufacturing readings has there been to the Services sector, for which there appeared to be some evidence in the flash Eurozone readings. However, given the shockwave to bonds and equities from Tuesday's unexpected drop in the Manufacturing ISM, the focus will be on the US report, which is projected to dip to 55.2, following an unexpectedly strong bounce from a 3-yr low of 53.7 in July to 56.4, though the Street 'whisper' is inevitably skewed to the downside.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
********************
| Inbox | x |
| 08:47 (42 minutes ago) |
|
- US/EU Trade tensions & Brexit in focus, Services PMIs and Turkish CPI top
data schedule, deluge of ECB, Riksbank and Fed speakers; France/Spain
govt bond auctions; ECJ ruling on Polish CHF mortgages resolution due
- Services PMIs: contagion effect from Manufacturing the big question,
particularly in respect of US Non-Manufacturing ISM
- Turkey: steep decline in CPI and fall in oil prices gives TCMB plenty
of scope for more aggressive rate cuts; politics and NPLs still a risk
- Charts: WTI vs S&P500 e-min; S&P500 vs US HY bond spread; US HY bond All
sector vs. Energy spread; VIX and MOVE volatility indices
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-3-october-2019/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The fall-out in terms of US/EU trade tensions from the WTO ruling on Airbus subsidies will inevitably the focal point for today, along with what happens next in the Brexit process, as the EU gives a typical cautious reaction which primarily seeks to avoid closing doors, without offering any sense that any progress with this latest UK ultimatum offer. Services PMIs dominate an otherwise very modest run of data, with holidays in China, South Korea and Germany thinning market volumes, while central bank speakers are in chronic oversupply; 1x BoJ, 4x Fed, 3x each for ECB & Riksbank, and to round things off there is also the Russia Energy Forum, which will see a meeting between Russia Energy Minister Novak and his Saudi counterpart Abdulaziz bin Salman. France and Spain both hold multi-maturity bond auctions, and with CPI still elevated (3.9% y/y) though falling, Romania's central bank is expected to hold rates at 2.50%. Given that even normally dovish FOMC members such as Chicago Fed's Evans are signalling that they see little immediate need for a further rate cut, while markets have shifted from pricing no more than a 40% chance of a cut at the October meeting to now discounting a 70% chance at that meeting, Fed speakers are going to have be rather more vocal in 'pushing back' against market expectations, if they are not to run the risk of surprising, i.e. disappointing markets at this month's meeting, clearly tomorrow's Payrolls and Wages data could prove pivotal in that respect. As for the ECB, leaving aside the acute tensions between the German contingent and Draghi, it is probably safe to observe that the next major event will not be Draghi's farewell council meeting, but rather the fact that just 3 days after taking over from home, Lagarde makes her first major speech in Berlin, where she will be sharing a platform with none other than former German Finance Minister Schaeuble, who has recently joined the ranks of those calling for the govt to abandon its 'Schwarze Null' balanced budget. Also on today's agenda, there is a very important ruling expected from the ECJ this morning, which could impact the ongoing Polish electoral campaign (October 13) and banking sector, and relating to the Polish CHF mortgage debacle, for some background, do check out this Tweet thread from Johannes Borgen .
Turkish CPI has also just been published, and fell even more sharply than expected at the headline level (1.0% m/m 9.26% y/y vs. f'cast 9.7% and August 15.0%) and as expected on Core CPI (7.54% y/y vs. August 13.6%). Per se this gives the TCMB plenty of scope for another very aggressive rate cut (300/350 bps) in keeping with its current policy target of ensuring an appropriate level of real interest rates, which on the current nominal rate of 16.50% are clearly far too high for a weak economy, with inflation falling rapidly. Falling oil prices will only help that cause, but the twin risks of politics, above all renewed tensions with Russia over Syria, and the escalating NPL problem in the financial sector remain very real.
** World - Sept Services PMIs/ISM **
- Today's run of PMIs essentially boil down to one specific question, how much contagion from those weak Manufacturing readings has there been to the Services sector, for which there appeared to be some evidence in the flash Eurozone readings. However, given the shockwave to bonds and equities from Tuesday's unexpected drop in the Manufacturing ISM, the focus will be on the US report, which is projected to dip to 55.2, following an unexpectedly strong bounce from a 3-yr low of 53.7 in July to 56.4, though the Street 'whisper' is inevitably skewed to the downside.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
********************
Dentalfloss
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dax updated
our lines worked a treat
our lines worked a treat
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pullback from rez
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks 
☕ ☕ ☕ 😎 😎 😎 👄👄👄
☕ ☕ ☕ 😎 😎 😎 👄👄👄
Dentalfloss
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A quick look at the Dow
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Dax is lagging..its in support
Dentalfloss
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