Dentalfloss
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activates a count to 25500 area
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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correction 25200 area
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SPX
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updated
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below 26100 area is bear trap territory
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updated
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FTSE
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Mornin Folks 
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Dow
poss bear trap.if it stays below yellow and we get a full downtrend..then not a trap
poss bear trap.if it stays below yellow and we get a full downtrend..then not a trap
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change rev to 3
you can see that bears can be lured in only to get kicked in the face
you can see that bears can be lured in only to get kicked in the face
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change rev to 2..fake signal..??bears could get trapped
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That has the potentail to get a tad nasty
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ditto
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overbought...maybe..??
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at the open
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 12 April 2019 - ADM ISI
- Digesting China Trade and Singapore Q1 GDP data, awaiting Eurozone
Industrial Production, US Import Prices and Michigan Sentiment,
various central bank speakers at IMF/World Bank/G20 meetings; US
Q1 earnings season gets underway
- China Trade: LNY effects account for surprise, Q1 data a better guide
to underlying trend
- Current low levels of volatility at risk from upcoming three week
long holiday predicated liquidity air pockets
- Charts: GBP 1, 3 & 6-mth volatility, US GS Financial Conditions Index,
Altanta Fed GDPnow, Fed rate expectations by meeting
- No morning audio file today, but I will be chatting with
Bloomberg Radio at 08.45 BST !
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A week that was supposed to have considerable and multi-faceted event risks looks likely to end with a damp squib, with the overnight China Trade data the only major item on the agenda, with Singapore Q1 advance GDP to be digested ahead of Indian CPI and Industrial Production and US Import & Export Prices. The US Q1 Earnings season also gets under way with financials leading the way via of results from JP Morgan, PNC and Wells Fargo. But with the two week Easter period starting next week, and a further protracted liquidity air pocket in the week that follows due to Japan's very long Golden Week and the May Day bank holiday in many countries, the appetite for aggressive position taking is likely to be low. However the concern is that with volatility so low in most asset classes, above all in FX (see CVIX chart attached) with EUR/USD volatility at the lowest level since the launch of the Euro, and with the same 1.12/1.16 EUR/USD range in place for the past 8 months, that a violent break out in just one area (excepting a specific EM country) could send some very seismic shock waves across all markets. Interestingly it is the usually less significant monthly options expiry in equity markets on Monday, with SPY implied volatilities at extraordinarily low levels, a further indication of the current level of complacency. Equally worrying is the degree of 'wilful blindness' and 'wishful seeing', as but one example, the total lack of reaction to yesterday's Initial Claims dropping to the lowest level (196K) since the Beatles released 'Abbey Road' and higher than expected PPI. In passing, and very much acknowledging that these models are anything but perfect, the fact is that the Atlanta Fed GDP now model is now at 2.3%, a far cry from the mid-March low of just 0.2%, still off the pace of 2018, but that was never going to be sustainable (see chart). In a similar vein, there was barely any reaction to the news that House Democrat leader Pelosi has set the wheels in motion on trying to negotiate an infrastructure spending programme with Trump, mooting a minimum of $1.0 Trln and a preference for $2.0 Trln. To be sure there will be a lot of divergence in terms of what should be targetted, but the fact that wheels are being set in motion on potentially the most singificant fiscal initiative of recent years, and onewhich most had thought would not get any traction with next year's elections coming into view, implies a rethink would be required on the Fed policy outlook, if the emphasis switches back to fiscal stimulus.
China Trade data - briefly, way out of line with expectations, but very clearly a case of Lunar New Year effects, and per se the quarterly data, which suggest a broadly flat profile are a better indicator of underlying trend,
Reuters summary headlines for that below:
- CHINA Q1 DOLLAR-DENOMINATED EXPORTS +1.4 PCT Y/Y- CUSTOMS
- CHINA Q1 DOLLAR-DENOMINATED IMPORTS -4.8 PCT Y/Y- CUSTOMS
- CHINA Q1 DOLLAR-DENOMINATED TRADE BALANCE +$76.31 BLN - CUSTOMS
- CHINA Q1 YUAN-DENOMINATED EXPORTS +6.7 PCT Y/Y - CUSTOMS
- CHINA Q1 YUAN-DENOMINATED IMPORTS +0.3 PCT Y/Y - CUSTOMS
- CHINA Q1 TRADE BALANCE +529.67 BLN YUAN - CUSTOMS
| Inbox | x |
| 08:21 (6 minutes ago) |
|
- Digesting China Trade and Singapore Q1 GDP data, awaiting Eurozone
Industrial Production, US Import Prices and Michigan Sentiment,
various central bank speakers at IMF/World Bank/G20 meetings; US
Q1 earnings season gets underway
- China Trade: LNY effects account for surprise, Q1 data a better guide
to underlying trend
- Current low levels of volatility at risk from upcoming three week
long holiday predicated liquidity air pockets
- Charts: GBP 1, 3 & 6-mth volatility, US GS Financial Conditions Index,
Altanta Fed GDPnow, Fed rate expectations by meeting
- No morning audio file today, but I will be chatting with
Bloomberg Radio at 08.45 BST !
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A week that was supposed to have considerable and multi-faceted event risks looks likely to end with a damp squib, with the overnight China Trade data the only major item on the agenda, with Singapore Q1 advance GDP to be digested ahead of Indian CPI and Industrial Production and US Import & Export Prices. The US Q1 Earnings season also gets under way with financials leading the way via of results from JP Morgan, PNC and Wells Fargo. But with the two week Easter period starting next week, and a further protracted liquidity air pocket in the week that follows due to Japan's very long Golden Week and the May Day bank holiday in many countries, the appetite for aggressive position taking is likely to be low. However the concern is that with volatility so low in most asset classes, above all in FX (see CVIX chart attached) with EUR/USD volatility at the lowest level since the launch of the Euro, and with the same 1.12/1.16 EUR/USD range in place for the past 8 months, that a violent break out in just one area (excepting a specific EM country) could send some very seismic shock waves across all markets. Interestingly it is the usually less significant monthly options expiry in equity markets on Monday, with SPY implied volatilities at extraordinarily low levels, a further indication of the current level of complacency. Equally worrying is the degree of 'wilful blindness' and 'wishful seeing', as but one example, the total lack of reaction to yesterday's Initial Claims dropping to the lowest level (196K) since the Beatles released 'Abbey Road' and higher than expected PPI. In passing, and very much acknowledging that these models are anything but perfect, the fact is that the Atlanta Fed GDP now model is now at 2.3%, a far cry from the mid-March low of just 0.2%, still off the pace of 2018, but that was never going to be sustainable (see chart). In a similar vein, there was barely any reaction to the news that House Democrat leader Pelosi has set the wheels in motion on trying to negotiate an infrastructure spending programme with Trump, mooting a minimum of $1.0 Trln and a preference for $2.0 Trln. To be sure there will be a lot of divergence in terms of what should be targetted, but the fact that wheels are being set in motion on potentially the most singificant fiscal initiative of recent years, and onewhich most had thought would not get any traction with next year's elections coming into view, implies a rethink would be required on the Fed policy outlook, if the emphasis switches back to fiscal stimulus.
China Trade data - briefly, way out of line with expectations, but very clearly a case of Lunar New Year effects, and per se the quarterly data, which suggest a broadly flat profile are a better indicator of underlying trend,
Reuters summary headlines for that below:
- CHINA Q1 DOLLAR-DENOMINATED EXPORTS +1.4 PCT Y/Y- CUSTOMS
- CHINA Q1 DOLLAR-DENOMINATED IMPORTS -4.8 PCT Y/Y- CUSTOMS
- CHINA Q1 DOLLAR-DENOMINATED TRADE BALANCE +$76.31 BLN - CUSTOMS
- CHINA Q1 YUAN-DENOMINATED EXPORTS +6.7 PCT Y/Y - CUSTOMS
- CHINA Q1 YUAN-DENOMINATED IMPORTS +0.3 PCT Y/Y - CUSTOMS
- CHINA Q1 TRADE BALANCE +529.67 BLN YUAN - CUSTOMS
Dentalfloss
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Bears got trapped
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DAX updated
