Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks 
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dow...still within our boundaries
Dentalfloss
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DAX
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SPX lined up
Dentalfloss
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close up
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which way..??
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our rez...dumped
Dentalfloss
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buyers are there
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our rez workin well
Dentalfloss
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gettin supported
Dentalfloss
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range is tight..ready for apop
Dentalfloss
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better veiw
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Dentalfloss
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 11 April 2019 - ADM ISI
Inbox
x
Ostwald, Marc
08:56 (34 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Brexit 'fudge' post mortem; digesting China CPI and PPI, Swedish CPI
and UK RICS House Price Balance; awaiting US PPI and Initial Claims,
Canada New House Prices; deluge of Fed another central bank speakers
as IMF / World Bank meetings continue; Italy and US govt bond auctions
- Brexit: as ever 'can kicking' and 'fudge' win the day; a recipe for
more procrastination as underlying dynamics unchanged
- Canada New House Prices: housing market woes increasingly a crisis
- US PPI: energy set to pace headline rise; Trade services likely to be
key for core; underlying trend benign whatever the outcome
- Morning Call audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-11-april-2019/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As the dust settles on another fudged 'kick of the Brexit can', and its aftermath, today's relatively modest schedule of data has UK RICS (picking up for the first time in 8 months to a still very negative -24), China CPI & PPI (basically as expected) from overnight to digest, while ahead lie Swedish CPI, US PPI and Initial claims, and Canadian New House Prices with a deluge of central bank speakers in the context of the IMF/World Bank meetings perhaps the more likely potential market movers. Italy and the US dominate the bond auction schedule, while the IEA follows OPEC with its monthly oil market report, even if it becomes ever clearer that the debate on the OPEC+ production cut extension is largely a case of whether Russia can be persuaded to continue, with the onus in persuasion terms on Saudi Arabia, and the US decision on the next round of 'Iran waivers' likely to be the decisive element, with OPEC clearly still very unhappy about how it was not given any real advance warning about the last round of waivers - thus a classic case of 'once bitten, twice shy'! We mention Canadian New Housing Prices merely because according to a report in Grant's Observer, the Canadian Housing market appears to be stealing a march on the other national housing horror story in Australia. According to that report Home Sales in Vancouver are down 31.4% y/y, which is the worst since 1986, with prices for detached houses down 10.5% y/y, meanwhile sales in Toronto are down a whopping 40% y/y, with prices down 14% y/y. As such in another classic edition of 'it's the economy, stupid', PM Trudeau's chances of being re-elected this year look to be very low.
** U.K./EU - Brexit 'fudge' **
- In effect this was a case of re-arranging the deck chairs via way of the usual EU operating principles of 'fudge' adn 'can kicking', though it did underline deep divisions between France, which favoured a short extension, and Germany (and 17 others) who favoured a long extension. In the short term the key dates are: Today - parliament is due to adjourn until April 23 for the Easter break, though there is a motion tabled for parliament to sit tomorrow;
June 1st - if the UK were not to hold EU parliamentary elections, and no deal has been made, then the UK will exit with no deal; June 20-21 - a review of the current extension will be conducted at the scheduled EU summit, and October 31st - the end date for current extension. The extension can be terminated at any time IF a deal is ratified. In many senses, this extension is a recipe for yet more procrastination in Parliament, above all as bilateral talks between Conservatives and Labour look to be making progress, as it merely pushes back on the existing 'cliff edge' dates. On the other hand it does not really allow enough time to either hold a second referendum, or the alternative of a general election, above all as the Conservatives would need to hold a party leadership conference ahead of that, as they will definitely not want to be led by May into another election. It is also very clear that May is not going to resign unless her deal is passed, and it is very likely that she will try and hold yet another meaningful vote on it in coming weeks. While one can imagine that both hard Remainers and Brexiteers in the Tory party might want to engineer a 'no confidence vote' in May, the fact is that both they and indeed the Labour party still want to ensure that May carries the blame for the current mess. In the meantime, the public will only get more angry, and businesses continue to be left in limbo.
** U.S.A. - March PPI **
- Yesterday's CPI was unsurprising in headline terms, with a slightly larger then expected boost from energy resulting in a slightly larger rebound, but while many core components rose at a 0.3% m/m or above, these were more than offset by a whopping 1.9% m/m drop on Apparel (-2.2% y/y), and a very counterintuitive (given energy prices) -0.6% m/m on Airfares. Per se the pointers for today's PPI were limited, other than an already heavily anticipated upward push from energy prices at the headline level, with the consensus looking for 0.3% m/m 1.9% y/y, while at the core level it is again likely that the very volatile Trade Services component (last -0.4% m/m, Jan +0.8% m/m) likely to be key in deciding whether this meets a forecast of 0.2% m/m 2.4% y/y. However in terms of policy implications, the underlying trend in both CPI and PPI continue to point to inflation being well contained near term in terms of both upside and downside risks.
Inbox
x
Ostwald, Marc
08:56 (34 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Brexit 'fudge' post mortem; digesting China CPI and PPI, Swedish CPI
and UK RICS House Price Balance; awaiting US PPI and Initial Claims,
Canada New House Prices; deluge of Fed another central bank speakers
as IMF / World Bank meetings continue; Italy and US govt bond auctions
- Brexit: as ever 'can kicking' and 'fudge' win the day; a recipe for
more procrastination as underlying dynamics unchanged
- Canada New House Prices: housing market woes increasingly a crisis
- US PPI: energy set to pace headline rise; Trade services likely to be
key for core; underlying trend benign whatever the outcome
- Morning Call audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-11-april-2019/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As the dust settles on another fudged 'kick of the Brexit can', and its aftermath, today's relatively modest schedule of data has UK RICS (picking up for the first time in 8 months to a still very negative -24), China CPI & PPI (basically as expected) from overnight to digest, while ahead lie Swedish CPI, US PPI and Initial claims, and Canadian New House Prices with a deluge of central bank speakers in the context of the IMF/World Bank meetings perhaps the more likely potential market movers. Italy and the US dominate the bond auction schedule, while the IEA follows OPEC with its monthly oil market report, even if it becomes ever clearer that the debate on the OPEC+ production cut extension is largely a case of whether Russia can be persuaded to continue, with the onus in persuasion terms on Saudi Arabia, and the US decision on the next round of 'Iran waivers' likely to be the decisive element, with OPEC clearly still very unhappy about how it was not given any real advance warning about the last round of waivers - thus a classic case of 'once bitten, twice shy'! We mention Canadian New Housing Prices merely because according to a report in Grant's Observer, the Canadian Housing market appears to be stealing a march on the other national housing horror story in Australia. According to that report Home Sales in Vancouver are down 31.4% y/y, which is the worst since 1986, with prices for detached houses down 10.5% y/y, meanwhile sales in Toronto are down a whopping 40% y/y, with prices down 14% y/y. As such in another classic edition of 'it's the economy, stupid', PM Trudeau's chances of being re-elected this year look to be very low.
** U.K./EU - Brexit 'fudge' **
- In effect this was a case of re-arranging the deck chairs via way of the usual EU operating principles of 'fudge' adn 'can kicking', though it did underline deep divisions between France, which favoured a short extension, and Germany (and 17 others) who favoured a long extension. In the short term the key dates are: Today - parliament is due to adjourn until April 23 for the Easter break, though there is a motion tabled for parliament to sit tomorrow;
June 1st - if the UK were not to hold EU parliamentary elections, and no deal has been made, then the UK will exit with no deal; June 20-21 - a review of the current extension will be conducted at the scheduled EU summit, and October 31st - the end date for current extension. The extension can be terminated at any time IF a deal is ratified. In many senses, this extension is a recipe for yet more procrastination in Parliament, above all as bilateral talks between Conservatives and Labour look to be making progress, as it merely pushes back on the existing 'cliff edge' dates. On the other hand it does not really allow enough time to either hold a second referendum, or the alternative of a general election, above all as the Conservatives would need to hold a party leadership conference ahead of that, as they will definitely not want to be led by May into another election. It is also very clear that May is not going to resign unless her deal is passed, and it is very likely that she will try and hold yet another meaningful vote on it in coming weeks. While one can imagine that both hard Remainers and Brexiteers in the Tory party might want to engineer a 'no confidence vote' in May, the fact is that both they and indeed the Labour party still want to ensure that May carries the blame for the current mess. In the meantime, the public will only get more angry, and businesses continue to be left in limbo.
** U.S.A. - March PPI **
- Yesterday's CPI was unsurprising in headline terms, with a slightly larger then expected boost from energy resulting in a slightly larger rebound, but while many core components rose at a 0.3% m/m or above, these were more than offset by a whopping 1.9% m/m drop on Apparel (-2.2% y/y), and a very counterintuitive (given energy prices) -0.6% m/m on Airfares. Per se the pointers for today's PPI were limited, other than an already heavily anticipated upward push from energy prices at the headline level, with the consensus looking for 0.3% m/m 1.9% y/y, while at the core level it is again likely that the very volatile Trade Services component (last -0.4% m/m, Jan +0.8% m/m) likely to be key in deciding whether this meets a forecast of 0.2% m/m 2.4% y/y. However in terms of policy implications, the underlying trend in both CPI and PPI continue to point to inflation being well contained near term in terms of both upside and downside risks.
Dentalfloss
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and into season 2 / earnings
Dentalfloss
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dont need a p/f chart to see that
its either goin to pump or dump
its either goin to pump or dump
Dentalfloss
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Dow
a trend break
a trend break
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Dow
bears gotta keep it below green
bears gotta keep it below green
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break below 26100 makes it nastty for the bulls
