Trading with point and figure

[Dentalfloss]

OIL
not sure

 

[Dentalfloss]

UJ
tricky

 

[Dentalfloss]

tricky

 

[Dentalfloss]

Ostwald, Marc
08:59 (9 minutes ago)

to Marc





- Focus on OPEC+ meeting and US labour data; digesting Japan Wages, German &
French Production, Canada labour data also on tap

- US Labour report: another solid payrolls gain expected, but Average Hourly
Earnings not expected to signal any notable wage inflation signals

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

It is that Friday of the month when we are confronted with the behemoth that is the US labour data, and yet the poor tone in 'risk assets' underlines that the markets' 'goose' has been cooked, with the regulatory decimation of market liquidity over the past 8-10 years now becoming all too obviously a brazen case of feckless and myopic scorched earth policy, for which G3 central banks have no answer. Outside of that US and indeed the Canadian labour report, there are Japanese wages, German Industrial Production, final Eurozone GDP and Mexican CPI, and rather more t, along with the seemingly car crash like OPEC+ meeting, with little sign of real commitment to curbing output from either Saudi Arabia or Russia.

** U.S.A. - November Labour report **
- Another very solid (though probably agnostic) 200K gain is forecast for Non-farm (and indeed Private) Payrolls, with yesterday's ADP employment 'miss' (+179K), rather too marginal to have any real baring on today's report, with the Unemployment Rate seen unchanged at its cyclical low of 3.7%, with the all-important Average Hourly Earnings forecast at 0.3% m/m for an unchanged 3.1% y/y. As noted previously, NY Fed's Williams was relatively sanguine on the labour market remaining tight for a few more years, and underlining that this is not generating much in the way of wage inflation, however a strong labour market report this week would nevertheless push back on markets decidedly dovish take on Powell's comments 'just below the neutral range' last week, even if this is unlikely to unseat doubts about the China/US trade truce and the outlook for the global economy, let alone the more immediate questions about the oil price outlook.

========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** =======================

 

[Dentalfloss]

lining up

 

[Dentalfloss]

Dow into the open

 

[Dentalfloss]

24950-25K could be a dog

 

[Dentalfloss]

in our 24950-25K rez area now

 

[Dentalfloss]

close up

 

[Dentalfloss]

general picture

 

[Dentalfloss]

US November 2018 Labour report: "Modest miss on Payrolls largely a weather effect, otherwise rather unremarkable"


Inbox
x

Ostwald, Marc
14:38 (1 minute ago)

to Marc





US November 2018 Labour report: "Modest miss on Payrolls largely a weather effect, otherwise rather unremarkable"

a) Payrolls / Establishment survey - Somewhat weaker than expected at +155K vs. a forecast of 198K, with very small net downward revision to September & October of just -12K. In the detail, there were small pockets of weakness in some sectors, Govt shedding 6K jobs after a downwardly revised -14K for October; Construction only added 5K as against a pace that had been in the 15K to 25K area for much of the year, while Leisure/Hospitality was also at the low end of recent range. The Labour Dept did however note that 129K were unable to work due to bad weather against a historical average for the month of 74K, and it also noted that a further 410K of full-time workers were only to work part-time due to weather. Per se, this largely accounts for the headline miss.

b) Unemployment Rate / Household Report - Headline Unemployment rate unchanged and as expected at 3.7%, while the U-6 Underemployment crept higher to 7.6% from 7.4%, which would be accounted for by the aforementioned weather effects. The breakdown shows a very small increase in the Workforce, Employment up 233K and Unemployment down by 100K, which was overall a little stronger than the payrolls report.

c) Average Hourly Earnings / Weekly Hours - No real surprises on Average Hourly Earnings at 0.2% m/m for an unchanged at 3.1% y/y, while the drop in Average Weekly Hours (-0.2% m/m) was again probably mostly a weather effect.

d) Market reaction - To be honest, not a lot, which doubtless bears testimony to the roller coaster ride above all in equities this week, with any excuse to close positions out for the week doubtless welcomed. Markets can focus in on Brainard's speech at the Peterson Institute at 17:00 and then Powell's postponed testimony on the economy next Wednesday.
..........................................................................

MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist

ADM Investor Services International Limited
A Subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company

 

[Dentalfloss]

our 25087...again

 

[Dentalfloss]

Dax
gettin there

 

[Dentalfloss]

our 25087...againView attachment 258463

And dump
Excellent

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

general picture updated

our rez worked a treat

 

[Dentalfloss]

straight into our support
excellent stuff

 

[Dentalfloss]

general picture updated

our lines worked a treat
WAZAAA........

 

[Dentalfloss]

time for tea and biscuits

 

[inzimam]

Afternoon

10800 is serious support from Dax weekly chart