Ostwald, Marc
08:59 (9 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Focus on OPEC+ meeting and US labour data; digesting Japan Wages, German &
French Production, Canada labour data also on tap
- US Labour report: another solid payrolls gain expected, but Average Hourly
Earnings not expected to signal any notable wage inflation signals
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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
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It is that Friday of the month when we are confronted with the behemoth that is the US labour data, and yet the poor tone in 'risk assets' underlines that the markets' 'goose' has been cooked, with the regulatory decimation of market liquidity over the past 8-10 years now becoming all too obviously a brazen case of feckless and myopic scorched earth policy, for which G3 central banks have no answer. Outside of that US and indeed the Canadian labour report, there are Japanese wages, German Industrial Production, final Eurozone GDP and Mexican CPI, and rather more t, along with the seemingly car crash like OPEC+ meeting, with little sign of real commitment to curbing output from either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
** U.S.A. - November Labour report **
- Another very solid (though probably agnostic) 200K gain is forecast for Non-farm (and indeed Private) Payrolls, with yesterday's ADP employment 'miss' (+179K), rather too marginal to have any real baring on today's report, with the Unemployment Rate seen unchanged at its cyclical low of 3.7%, with the all-important Average Hourly Earnings forecast at 0.3% m/m for an unchanged 3.1% y/y. As noted previously, NY Fed's Williams was relatively sanguine on the labour market remaining tight for a few more years, and underlining that this is not generating much in the way of wage inflation, however a strong labour market report this week would nevertheless push back on markets decidedly dovish take on Powell's comments 'just below the neutral range' last week, even if this is unlikely to unseat doubts about the China/US trade truce and the outlook for the global economy, let alone the more immediate questions about the oil price outlook.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** =======================