Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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testing our rez
Dentalfloss
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are they Woodie the woodpecker"s pivots..??
Dentalfloss
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Atilla
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Dentalfloss
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Jeff York
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Dentalfloss
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Dow
Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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A quick look at the dow
Dentalfloss
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26070 area looks important ...if it gets dumped
Dentalfloss
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DAX into the open
should be in support
should be in support
Dentalfloss
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dax in a minor downtrend
price gettin squeezed
will support hold..??
price gettin squeezed
will support hold..??
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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our line became rez
Dentalfloss
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A great pivot for us
Dentalfloss
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Ostwald, Marc
08:44 (7 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Busy day for major data: digesting as expected China CPI and PPI, RBA SOMP,
dip in Norway underlying CPI, awaiting UK preliminary Q3 GDP and deluge
of monthly indicators, along with US PPI; first round of post FOMC Fed
speak also on hand
- UK Q3 GDP: 'impressive' pick-up unable to disguise sharp slowdown into
the end of quarter, as likely to be seen in monthly indicators; perhaps
all very moot given focus on 'knife edge' Brexit negotiations
- US PPI: despite broad based corporate whingeing about input price
pressures, PPI (& CPI) signalling little if any pass through; trade
services the key wild card, some downside risks
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The day is not short of major economic data, though with the lion's share in the UK where Brexit negotiations are effectively the "only show in town", perhaps not quite as heavyweight as it should be. Nevertheless, there are the Chinese CPI & PPI (bang in line with forecast, and signalling no pressure from weaker CNY as yet), Norwegian CPI/PPI and French Industrial Production (very poor, in contrast to array of surveys) to digest ahead of the UK run, while the afternoon finally delivers some US data of note in the shape of PPI, with the provisional Michigan Sentiment reading also due. In event terms, there is a more modest run of corporate earnings to accompany the RBA's Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP), and the first post FOMC round of Fed speakers via Williams and Harker, as well as the Trump/Macron meeting. There may also be an eye cast towards a busy run of major data next week, including CPI and Retail Sales in US, UK & China, Industrial Production in China & the USA, German & Japanese Q3 GDP along with UK labour data. The weekend also brings a meeting of some OPEC officials (full meeting December 6, amid some speculation that Russia and Saudi Arabia have floated the idea of an oil production in 2019, given both US and Russian output is running above prior estimates, and talk of an output surplus relative to demand, due in no small part due to expectations of a slowdown in the global economy. (Next week is also the Global Grain Geneva 2018 conference, at which I will be speaking - http://www.globalgrainevents.com/geneva/agenda.html - please do email, or DM me on Twitter @mostwald1 or via Linkedin, if you would like to chat, have a coffee, etc).
** U.K. - Q3 prov. GDP, September activity data **
- As previously noted, the usual caveat applies that all UK data is effectively totally subordinate to Brexit developments, there will still be some sensitivity to the raft of activity data that is on hand. Q3 GDP is forecast to be a rather 'perky' 0.6% q/q, which would push the y/y rate back up to 1.5%, i.e. the BoE's assumed potential rate of growth for the UK. But as we have stressed, the story for the UK economy in Q3 was a strong start which had fizzled out almost completely by the end of the quarter, indeed monthly GDP and the Index of Services for September are seen at just 0.1% m/m after flat readings in August. Q3 Business Investment is projected to rebound modestly to 0.2% q/q, which would be an improvement on Q2's -0.7% q/q, but is obviously heavily encumbered by Brexit related uncertainties. If the latter are resolved in a way which offers some clarity about future legal and fiscal operating parameters, this should in theory prompt companies to take investment decisions, that are currently on hold. Having fallen 0.2% m/m and 0.7% m/m respectively in August, Manufacturing Output and Construction Output are forecast to eke out gains of 0.1% m/m in September. As for the Trade Balance , a very modestly wider Visible deficit of £-11.4 Bln is forecast, with the total balance also seen slightly wider at £-1.5 Bln, though for Q3 as a whole Net Exports are projected to have made a solid contribution to Q3 GDP (Exports +2.8% q/q, Imports 0.6% q/q), though this follows a substantial drag in Q2.
** U.S.A. - October PPI **
- This is the only first division item of data this week, but if forecasts of 0.2% m/m on both measures, which would see headline y/y dip to 2.5% from 2.6%, and core down to 2.3% from 2.5%, then this is not likely to be a market mover. The obvious point is that for all that surveys have highlighted corporates of all types bemoaning rising input prices, throughout this year, the evidence from PPI is that there are few if any signs of any pass through in overall final prices (PPI or CPI). As ever the Trade Services component will be the wild card, with headwinds to international trade volumes due to tariffs, and the setback in oil prices suggesting the risk may well be to the downside.
from Marc Ostwald
08:44 (7 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Busy day for major data: digesting as expected China CPI and PPI, RBA SOMP,
dip in Norway underlying CPI, awaiting UK preliminary Q3 GDP and deluge
of monthly indicators, along with US PPI; first round of post FOMC Fed
speak also on hand
- UK Q3 GDP: 'impressive' pick-up unable to disguise sharp slowdown into
the end of quarter, as likely to be seen in monthly indicators; perhaps
all very moot given focus on 'knife edge' Brexit negotiations
- US PPI: despite broad based corporate whingeing about input price
pressures, PPI (& CPI) signalling little if any pass through; trade
services the key wild card, some downside risks
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The day is not short of major economic data, though with the lion's share in the UK where Brexit negotiations are effectively the "only show in town", perhaps not quite as heavyweight as it should be. Nevertheless, there are the Chinese CPI & PPI (bang in line with forecast, and signalling no pressure from weaker CNY as yet), Norwegian CPI/PPI and French Industrial Production (very poor, in contrast to array of surveys) to digest ahead of the UK run, while the afternoon finally delivers some US data of note in the shape of PPI, with the provisional Michigan Sentiment reading also due. In event terms, there is a more modest run of corporate earnings to accompany the RBA's Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP), and the first post FOMC round of Fed speakers via Williams and Harker, as well as the Trump/Macron meeting. There may also be an eye cast towards a busy run of major data next week, including CPI and Retail Sales in US, UK & China, Industrial Production in China & the USA, German & Japanese Q3 GDP along with UK labour data. The weekend also brings a meeting of some OPEC officials (full meeting December 6, amid some speculation that Russia and Saudi Arabia have floated the idea of an oil production in 2019, given both US and Russian output is running above prior estimates, and talk of an output surplus relative to demand, due in no small part due to expectations of a slowdown in the global economy. (Next week is also the Global Grain Geneva 2018 conference, at which I will be speaking - http://www.globalgrainevents.com/geneva/agenda.html - please do email, or DM me on Twitter @mostwald1 or via Linkedin, if you would like to chat, have a coffee, etc).
** U.K. - Q3 prov. GDP, September activity data **
- As previously noted, the usual caveat applies that all UK data is effectively totally subordinate to Brexit developments, there will still be some sensitivity to the raft of activity data that is on hand. Q3 GDP is forecast to be a rather 'perky' 0.6% q/q, which would push the y/y rate back up to 1.5%, i.e. the BoE's assumed potential rate of growth for the UK. But as we have stressed, the story for the UK economy in Q3 was a strong start which had fizzled out almost completely by the end of the quarter, indeed monthly GDP and the Index of Services for September are seen at just 0.1% m/m after flat readings in August. Q3 Business Investment is projected to rebound modestly to 0.2% q/q, which would be an improvement on Q2's -0.7% q/q, but is obviously heavily encumbered by Brexit related uncertainties. If the latter are resolved in a way which offers some clarity about future legal and fiscal operating parameters, this should in theory prompt companies to take investment decisions, that are currently on hold. Having fallen 0.2% m/m and 0.7% m/m respectively in August, Manufacturing Output and Construction Output are forecast to eke out gains of 0.1% m/m in September. As for the Trade Balance , a very modestly wider Visible deficit of £-11.4 Bln is forecast, with the total balance also seen slightly wider at £-1.5 Bln, though for Q3 as a whole Net Exports are projected to have made a solid contribution to Q3 GDP (Exports +2.8% q/q, Imports 0.6% q/q), though this follows a substantial drag in Q2.
** U.S.A. - October PPI **
- This is the only first division item of data this week, but if forecasts of 0.2% m/m on both measures, which would see headline y/y dip to 2.5% from 2.6%, and core down to 2.3% from 2.5%, then this is not likely to be a market mover. The obvious point is that for all that surveys have highlighted corporates of all types bemoaning rising input prices, throughout this year, the evidence from PPI is that there are few if any signs of any pass through in overall final prices (PPI or CPI). As ever the Trade Services component will be the wild card, with headwinds to international trade volumes due to tariffs, and the setback in oil prices suggesting the risk may well be to the downside.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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Morning Sir Inzi
Dentalfloss
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POP..??
