Dentalfloss
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Trading with point and figure
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Dentalfloss
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cable
Dentalfloss
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spx 2736-2745 is now a pivot area..supp ??
Dentalfloss
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its fumbling...lookin for support
Dentalfloss
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in our 12634 area now
will it support..??
will it support..??
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Low overnight of 12525 and Dow low 25200 so has further to fall possibly
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Moneylender
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Moneylender
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That's the gap filled both ways!
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Dentalfloss
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yes sir
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Services PMIs dominate data run, but equity market sell-off and relentless
and insidious run up in govt bond yields the talking points along with
increasing govt tensions over Brexit negotiations; ECB annual report
presentation by Draghi
- Week Ahead: less busy week for US data, but plenty of Fed speak; Europe
Trade and Production readings, German Orders, Japan wages, Canada jobs
and China Trade and inflation top data run
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
For all that today has the usual busy run of Services PMI (see preview below), the markets' chattering classes will be dissecting last week's sell-off in equity markets and the sharp steepening of the US Treasury yield curve, and a rise in G7/Eurozone govt bond yields overall. The run of Asian PMIs were encouraging, and considerably better than the picture painted by the Manufacturing sector. The other talking point for the day, and indeed week, will be the irreconcilable view within the UK Conservative govt, particularly the glaring contradiction of Mrs May's assertion will definitely be leaving the EU customs union, which in effect renders the December agreement on the Irish border 'null and void', and the ongoing open warfare between the pro- and contra-Brexit wings of the party, which leaves her with a seemingly insurmountable chasm to bridge, above all given that neither side appears to show any desire to negotiate.
RECAP - The Week Ahead - preview & highlights: 04 to 10 February 2018
China, Europe and the UK top the weekly data schedule with little in the way of major US data, and it will also be a busy week for central bank policy meetings, Fed and ECB speakers, as well as corporate earnings. Politics will continue to lurk in the background with more UK/EU Brexit talks and another US Spending Bill deadline, as the US conducts its quarterly refunding, with an ever closer eye being kept on the seemingly relentless upward drift in US, UK and Eurozone government bond yields.
- Statistics: Services PMIs get the week underway, and as with the Manufacturing surveys, they are expected to paint a very solid sector growth picture pretty much across the board, though there will be particular attention in the UK after weaker than expected Manufacturing & Construction readings. Chinese Trade data are expected to see an unchanged and large Trade surplus of $54.7 Bln, but more attention will need to be paid to Export and Import data. These will see substantial currency and indeed lunar new year timing effects, and as such be treated with care: in CNY terms Exports are seen up just 1.3% y/y with Imports up 5.0%, by contrast the US$ based measures are seen at 11.3% and 11.2% respectively. Base and currency effects also go a long way to explaining the forecast drop in in both PPI (4.2% y/y vs. prior 4.9%) and CPI (1.5% y/y vs. 1.8%), though the pollution and overcapacity clampdowns will also be a factor. The UK's Industrial Production data will be heavily distorted by the Forties pipeline shutdown in December, and this predicates expectations of a 0.9% m/m drop that would drag the y/y down to just 0.3%, Manufacturing Output is expected to post a modest 0.3% m/m rise, which thanks to a 2.7% m/m in December 2016 dropping out of the comparison will see the y/y drop to 1.2% from November's 3.5%. The ever erratic Construction Output is seen dipping 0.1% m/m for a drop of 1.9% y/y. There is a raft of national Industrial Production and Trade data due in continental Europe, though pride of place will likely go to German Factory Orders, which are seen up 0.7% m/m after a 0.4% dip in November. Elsewhere Norway is expected to post a repeat 0.6% q/q rise in GDP, with CPI (headline and core) seen little changed and modestly below target. Canada has posted some very strong gains in Employment in recent months, which forced the BoC's hand on rates, the January data are seen dipping 9K after a 64.8K surge in December. Retail Sales top the run in Australia, and are expected to see a 0.2% m/m dip after jumping 1.2% in November, with the inflation adjusted Q4 reading forecast at a respectable 1.0% (vs. Q3 0.1%). Last but not least Japan's Labour Cash Earnings are projected to decelerate to 0.6% y/y after a more encouraging 0.9% in November, with much depending on December's winter bonuses. New Zealand Q4 labour data and a number of Q4 GDP readings in Asia and Latin America are also due.
- Central banks: the Bank of England and Australia's RBA are expected to keep policy on hold when they meet this week. But while the RBA is expected to be unflinching in signalling a neutral stance for a protracted in its Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP), there will be a lot of interest in how the BoE tweaks its forecasts in the Q1 Inflation Report. Carney has insisted that the rate outlook is very much contingent on how Brexit talks evolve, but recently opined in testimony that “The important thing with policy now ... is that as ... slack in the economy has been taken out, we move into a more conventional area for monetary policy, where the focus is increasingly on returning inflation sustainably to target over an appropriate horizon." There are numerous Fed and ECB speakers, with Draghi giving his annual report testimony to the European Parliament, and the ECB will also publish its monthly Bulletin. Elsewhere rates are expected to be kept on hold in India, Peru, the Philippines and Poland, while markets are discounting a further 25 bps rate hike to 7.50% Mexico as inflation rates remain stubbornly high. By contrast, Bank Rossi governor Nabiullina has hinted that the Russian central bank may be more aggressive in cutting rates in the short-term, as such suggesting a 50 bps rate cut rather than the expected 25 bps to 7.50%, with inflation very well behaved at 2.5% y/y, buoyant oil prices and a relatively strong RUB giving her plenty of room for manoeuvre. Brazil's COPOM is also expected to cut rates by a further 25 bps to 6.75%, with all eyes on whether they signal an end to, or at least as pause in the current rate cut cycle.
- Govt bond supply sees $66 Bln of 3, 10 & 30-yr in the US, the syndicated sale of UK 30-yr Index-linked Gilts, with only Germany (10-yr Bund and 8-yr I-L) and Austria (5 & 10-yr) set to tap markets via auction in the Eurozone, though a Greek syndicated bond sale is being 'teed up'.
- It will be another busy week for Corporate Earnings in the USA and Europe, with Monday featuring Intesa SanPaolo, Ryanair, Bristol Myers Squibb and Hess. Tuesday has Toyota, BP, Anadarko Petroleum, Gilead Sciences and Walt Disney, while GSK, Gas Natural SDG, Rio Tinto, Sanofi, Statoil, Unicredit, Humana and 2st century Fox will be among the headline grabbers on Wednesday. Thursday brings ABB, Commerzbank, L'Oreal, Societe Generale, Total and Zurich Insurance in Europe, and AIG, Goodyear, Kellogg, Twitter and Tyson Foods in the USA; Friday features AP Moeller-Maersk and PG&E.
from Marc Ostwald
and insidious run up in govt bond yields the talking points along with
increasing govt tensions over Brexit negotiations; ECB annual report
presentation by Draghi
- Week Ahead: less busy week for US data, but plenty of Fed speak; Europe
Trade and Production readings, German Orders, Japan wages, Canada jobs
and China Trade and inflation top data run
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
For all that today has the usual busy run of Services PMI (see preview below), the markets' chattering classes will be dissecting last week's sell-off in equity markets and the sharp steepening of the US Treasury yield curve, and a rise in G7/Eurozone govt bond yields overall. The run of Asian PMIs were encouraging, and considerably better than the picture painted by the Manufacturing sector. The other talking point for the day, and indeed week, will be the irreconcilable view within the UK Conservative govt, particularly the glaring contradiction of Mrs May's assertion will definitely be leaving the EU customs union, which in effect renders the December agreement on the Irish border 'null and void', and the ongoing open warfare between the pro- and contra-Brexit wings of the party, which leaves her with a seemingly insurmountable chasm to bridge, above all given that neither side appears to show any desire to negotiate.
RECAP - The Week Ahead - preview & highlights: 04 to 10 February 2018
China, Europe and the UK top the weekly data schedule with little in the way of major US data, and it will also be a busy week for central bank policy meetings, Fed and ECB speakers, as well as corporate earnings. Politics will continue to lurk in the background with more UK/EU Brexit talks and another US Spending Bill deadline, as the US conducts its quarterly refunding, with an ever closer eye being kept on the seemingly relentless upward drift in US, UK and Eurozone government bond yields.
- Statistics: Services PMIs get the week underway, and as with the Manufacturing surveys, they are expected to paint a very solid sector growth picture pretty much across the board, though there will be particular attention in the UK after weaker than expected Manufacturing & Construction readings. Chinese Trade data are expected to see an unchanged and large Trade surplus of $54.7 Bln, but more attention will need to be paid to Export and Import data. These will see substantial currency and indeed lunar new year timing effects, and as such be treated with care: in CNY terms Exports are seen up just 1.3% y/y with Imports up 5.0%, by contrast the US$ based measures are seen at 11.3% and 11.2% respectively. Base and currency effects also go a long way to explaining the forecast drop in in both PPI (4.2% y/y vs. prior 4.9%) and CPI (1.5% y/y vs. 1.8%), though the pollution and overcapacity clampdowns will also be a factor. The UK's Industrial Production data will be heavily distorted by the Forties pipeline shutdown in December, and this predicates expectations of a 0.9% m/m drop that would drag the y/y down to just 0.3%, Manufacturing Output is expected to post a modest 0.3% m/m rise, which thanks to a 2.7% m/m in December 2016 dropping out of the comparison will see the y/y drop to 1.2% from November's 3.5%. The ever erratic Construction Output is seen dipping 0.1% m/m for a drop of 1.9% y/y. There is a raft of national Industrial Production and Trade data due in continental Europe, though pride of place will likely go to German Factory Orders, which are seen up 0.7% m/m after a 0.4% dip in November. Elsewhere Norway is expected to post a repeat 0.6% q/q rise in GDP, with CPI (headline and core) seen little changed and modestly below target. Canada has posted some very strong gains in Employment in recent months, which forced the BoC's hand on rates, the January data are seen dipping 9K after a 64.8K surge in December. Retail Sales top the run in Australia, and are expected to see a 0.2% m/m dip after jumping 1.2% in November, with the inflation adjusted Q4 reading forecast at a respectable 1.0% (vs. Q3 0.1%). Last but not least Japan's Labour Cash Earnings are projected to decelerate to 0.6% y/y after a more encouraging 0.9% in November, with much depending on December's winter bonuses. New Zealand Q4 labour data and a number of Q4 GDP readings in Asia and Latin America are also due.
- Central banks: the Bank of England and Australia's RBA are expected to keep policy on hold when they meet this week. But while the RBA is expected to be unflinching in signalling a neutral stance for a protracted in its Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP), there will be a lot of interest in how the BoE tweaks its forecasts in the Q1 Inflation Report. Carney has insisted that the rate outlook is very much contingent on how Brexit talks evolve, but recently opined in testimony that “The important thing with policy now ... is that as ... slack in the economy has been taken out, we move into a more conventional area for monetary policy, where the focus is increasingly on returning inflation sustainably to target over an appropriate horizon." There are numerous Fed and ECB speakers, with Draghi giving his annual report testimony to the European Parliament, and the ECB will also publish its monthly Bulletin. Elsewhere rates are expected to be kept on hold in India, Peru, the Philippines and Poland, while markets are discounting a further 25 bps rate hike to 7.50% Mexico as inflation rates remain stubbornly high. By contrast, Bank Rossi governor Nabiullina has hinted that the Russian central bank may be more aggressive in cutting rates in the short-term, as such suggesting a 50 bps rate cut rather than the expected 25 bps to 7.50%, with inflation very well behaved at 2.5% y/y, buoyant oil prices and a relatively strong RUB giving her plenty of room for manoeuvre. Brazil's COPOM is also expected to cut rates by a further 25 bps to 6.75%, with all eyes on whether they signal an end to, or at least as pause in the current rate cut cycle.
- Govt bond supply sees $66 Bln of 3, 10 & 30-yr in the US, the syndicated sale of UK 30-yr Index-linked Gilts, with only Germany (10-yr Bund and 8-yr I-L) and Austria (5 & 10-yr) set to tap markets via auction in the Eurozone, though a Greek syndicated bond sale is being 'teed up'.
- It will be another busy week for Corporate Earnings in the USA and Europe, with Monday featuring Intesa SanPaolo, Ryanair, Bristol Myers Squibb and Hess. Tuesday has Toyota, BP, Anadarko Petroleum, Gilead Sciences and Walt Disney, while GSK, Gas Natural SDG, Rio Tinto, Sanofi, Statoil, Unicredit, Humana and 2st century Fox will be among the headline grabbers on Wednesday. Thursday brings ABB, Commerzbank, L'Oreal, Societe Generale, Total and Zurich Insurance in Europe, and AIG, Goodyear, Kellogg, Twitter and Tyson Foods in the USA; Friday features AP Moeller-Maersk and PG&E.
from Marc Ostwald
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Missed the bounce, too cautious this morning
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Dentalfloss
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100 point bounce
excellent stuff
excellent stuff
Last edited:
Moneylender
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12725 resistance, there now
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Moneylender
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Dentalfloss
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