Trading the ES (E mini S&P) November 2003

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thez some strength in the mrkt - so if ES is at its lower pivot at 10:30 - i'll be looking for tick + divs to go L
 
btw matey - when I mean say ndx leading spx, it's not only the %, but also in relation to their respective key mas. E.g. right now spx is higging its 40 ema/5min, ndx - miles above its own 40 ema.

hope u find this useful
 
HL on the BIX/BIX MACD. ES MACD also forming HL. Just waiting for the Tick to do its bits.

Back to reading about fair value.
 
10;30 pivot - ES sort of mid-range, closer to lower pivot. Thez some strength in the mrkt as follows from index leadership. Overall no trend - I am waiting to fade the 1st pivot touched, on a tick divs sequence. Slightly biased to buying lower pivot - but now it's a Tick game. We'll c.
 
lads/lasses - sorry - let me know if i am posting too much - i'll keep my gob shut then :) and post only EOD summaries.
 
CW

You must have some thing 5 screens or one really big one, if you pardon the pun.

My set up is ES 5 and 10 minute charts.
5 minute, Tick, BIX and SOX.

I also have a window showing all the major indecis and BIX and SOX together with their percentage change.

I am trying to concentrate on leading indicators. Not sure if I will dump the BIX once I have learnt to read the PREM. I am thinking of showing Merrill but the symbol is not working for some reason on Esignal.

Cheers for the info.
Andy
 
mate - FV is a very simple thing. Future contract is a contract on SP value at expiry. They hv to converge at expiry right? If the mrkt was perfect - Future right now wud hv the value of (SP now) * EXP ((R-D)T), where R interest rate to expiry, D - average dividend yield of SP to expiry and T time to expiry - since this is what SP wud be at expiry in a perfect mrkt - and that'd be futures' FV
 
bix is just as much a leader of blue chips as sox is on nasdaq xchange. I find both important for seeing the mrkt strength. Of coz ndx-spx and comp-dow "crosses" r of primary importance.
 
situation changing as we speak. indices neg diverging now. The chances of fading upper pivot on a Tick neg sequence r rising by minute. still a no-trend day of coz - so expect to buy lower pivot (or below) again later on in the day (13:00 or 14;15 pivots) on a Tick + sequence.
 
CW

I get all that. Trying to suss out these programme buying and selling malaki. For instance, according to IndexArb, the programmes are as follows.

Sell active -2.00, Sell threshold -1.39
Buy threshold 0.21, buy active 0.79

Reading about that bit now. Trying to tie it up with the PREM.

Anyway. Got to sign out. Something is wrong with my Esignal.

Andy
 
just keep in mind that "selling basket of sp stocks" - if not supported by cash (what sand was talking about) wud result in buying futures!
 
This is where we are at

Looks like decision time but we are also entering the doldrums.
 

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well spotted :) Mr Sharp Eye :)

1050 was not exactly lower ES on higher Tick - but buying lower pivot there is very reasonable :)

Rev to S @ 1054 (selling upper pivot) confirmed only by Tick neg div. But the 1 st leg is within 1st 50 min - macd of tick unreliable - good trade as well.
 
CW

Did you go short at 1054. I don't really see that move. There still seems to be some strength in this market and even the Bix has turned around. imho, I think it is just taking a breather during lunch.I would also like to see a LL 2minute Tick ema.
 
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the logic was - broader Tick neg div (w/o preceeding macd - but that explained above) at upper pivot on a no-trend day. strengthening internals and consolidation at upper pivot r exactly the reason to cover. I am not reversing to L however.
 
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