Best Thread Trading Naked

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Bloodhound

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Hi Rob,

Bear with me here, I'm a bit slow today... the first chart is the trades you took, and the second trades could have taken if one was using a "trade and hold" technique?

I'm seriously considering not trading again this week, I am not thinking straight at all. I think the last weeks loss has totally confused my brain! And don't worry about those 3 bad entries, it happens occasionally and it looks like one may have been a winner. Rewards for your mistakes, best way to go broke! :)
The first chart is a mix of ones that I took, ones that I shouldn't have taken, and ones that I would have taken. The second is an alternative, slightly more in keeping with the Feb guys.

I'm not saying either one is better and I'll be honest, I am currently testing the 2nd one along side the 1st one every day to see how they stack up. The key for me is more to do with minimising my time in the market and also being able to load up to get the most out of trades, which is why I'm not buying option 2 yet - that said the jury is still out and I am not 100% that it will suit my personality either LOL!! Let's see what happens ;-)
 
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Bloodhound

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By the way Hawk - you must read Phantom of the Pits. Nothing to do with naked charting but brilliant IMO, and will sit well with you and the way you trade I think.
 

HawkTrader

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That's good Rob, I like your (experi)mental way of trading. Do you lower your trading size when trying new things, or you trust yourself to trade it well enough to keep your current trade size?

P.S. Kidding about the mental part!! :)

By the way Hawk - you must read Phantom of the Pits. Nothing to do with naked charting but brilliant IMO, and will sit well with you and the way you trade I think.
Yep, I began reading it this afternoon. Got me kinda excited with all this mysterious-master-trader whom we'll never know!! I'll finish it tomorrow.
 

trendie

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brilliant thread, KJ.
Your entries are making me realise the psychological turmoil I go through when identifying an entry for myself. Since I trade pullbacks, I have to identify a trend, and then look for, what is essentially a mini contra-trend trade, that is, in an uptrend, look for a mini downtrend, and anticipate a good entry.

Your long entry PA trigger into an uptrend and short entry into a donwntrend is so "congruent"; thats the only word I can find. So even though I know its an uptrend, I have the tension of deciding of the pullback has ended or not. I think your thread has helped to crystalise more clearly why I feel such angst at taking a trade. (the contradictory idea of looking to take a position in the "correct" direction, but wanting it to go against the correct direction enough for me to get it a bargain)

All your actions are totally consistent and logical.

thanks for providing daily analysis, and expect this thread to become a classic.
I've already voted this 5-stars.
 

Bloodhound

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That's good Rob, I like your (experi)mental way of trading. Do you lower your trading size when trying new things, or you trust yourself to trade it well enough to keep your current trade size?

P.S. Kidding about the mental part!! :)



Yep, I began reading it this afternoon. Got me kinda excited with all this mysterious-master-trader whom we'll never know!! I'll finish it tomorrow.
The stuff on expectancy and adding to positions is a must read IMO. In fact the whole thing is!! Thanks again Andy.

At present it's a game of spreadsheets with the other way as it's a very tedious numbers game. Eventually I think it will be traded at the smallest size possible to see how it works in real life - I've tried it before but it didn't stack up but that would have been more me at fault than the methodology. There is a good chance I may end up with some sort of hybrid of what I do now combined with taking a longer term (more than 5 minutes) view on being offside. The most important bit for me is having confidence that I will still be in the game, most days, to catch the movers that I can add to as they are my bread and butter.
 

Bloodhound

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Hi Trendie,

That's very kind of you to say so, and I'm really glad it is proving interesting. TBH, any credit goes to Feb as it was his thread that opened my eyes. Oh - and also to all those members of T2W who would join in chorus, whenever someone asks 'which is the best indicator' and reply 'your eyes'!! It sunk in to my thick skull eventually!!

It's fascinating what you say and I can perfectly understand it. I'm afraid I am an extremely logical person and I like things simple as well. This is what I liked about this way of looking at things: find an entry level (ideally in the direction of the current trend), find a level at which one knows that price is telling us one is wrong, place the orders and then sit and wait and see what happens next :)

All the best

Rob
 

Bloodhound

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Morning everyone. Cable, IMO, is a choppy mess this morning, so I'm sitting on the sidelines waiting until I can see some sort of definition. A couple of level to look at though...

cable m5 091020 - 0804.gif
 
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Hi Rob, great thread. Can I ask, how long have you been trading this approach and have you any idea what kind of results you're achieving in terms of risk/reward ratio? Also what are your favourite instruments and timeframes?

Many thanks.
 

apmf

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Good Morning guys, 2 trades so far from 148.00 level. I like to watch these round numbers as most of the times we can see supply and demand action around it.
Right now watching 147.50 for my T3's direction.

Edit: Just got stopped out of T3. Rejection from 147.50 as thought.
 

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Bloodhound

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Hi Rob, great thread. Can I ask, how long have you been trading this approach and have you any idea what kind of results you're achieving in terms of risk/reward ratio? Also what are your favourite instruments and timeframes?

Many thanks.
Good morning Second Income Trader and thanks for dropping in. I started trading cable M15 in May and graduated to this way of seeing / doing things in early August.

In terms of risk / reward it is very hard to answer as I think, in part, it is determined by one's initial attitude to risk. What I did was just started trading it and let the risk / reward bit develop over time. Even just with cable M5 there are so many ways of managing trades IMO, and I am constanly evaluating different methods:

1) Shoot for fixed targets?
2) Scale out positions?
3) Add to positions after scaling some out?
4) Have fixed stops or 'logical' stops?
5) Use M5 entries to get lower risk entries into higher tf moves
etc. etc.

Sorry it's not a very helpful answer but, wilst I know what I am achieving, it will be vastly different for someone else. Remember, it's not a 'system' per se - simply a way of looking at price, with some simple ways of getting in and out of trades - that's the way I see it anyway..
 
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tenbobtrader

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Good morning Second Income Trader and thanks for dropping in. I started trading cable M15 in May and graduated to this way of seeing / doing things in early August.

In terms of risk / reward it is very hard to answer as I think, in part, it is determined by one's initial attitude to risk. What I did was just started trading it and let the risk / reward bit develop over time. Even just with cable M5 there are so many ways of managing trades IMO, and I am constanly evaluating different methods:

1) Shoot for fixed targets?
2) Scale out positions?
3) Add to positions after scaling some out?
4) Have fixed stops or 'logical' stops?
5) Use M5 entries to get lower risk entries into higher tf moves
etc. etc.

Sorry it's not a very helpful answer but, wilst I know what I am achieving, it will be vastly different for someone else. Remember, it's not a 'system' per se - simply a way of looking at price, with some simple ways of getting in and out of trades - that's the way I see it anyway..
morning Rob

well it is if you read it - good honest post imvho - all must build their own method

the detail that makes it theirs :)

thanks for your continued input and thoughts Rob - hope you have a good week to :clover:



"In many situations we face in daily life, we recognize that action must be guided by reason. Thinking is a powerful antidote to impulsive behavior. A perfect example is the breaking of habits. We learn to overcome compulsive eating or drinking by making ourselves first think about the consequences, then consciously choose an alternate course of action. Without clear thinking about priorities, it is far too easy to fall into patterns of behavior that offer short-term rewards but longer-term consequences.

So it is for traders. Having worked with dozens of traders over the past year, I can vouch for the fact that, among active market participants, overtrading is the single most common problem they face. Overtrading in this context means putting trades on where there is no explicit edge—and even no valid rationale—for the trade. Generally, the reasoning behind the excessive trade is nothing more than, “I felt like it was going up.” What the impulsive trader fails to realize is that this is no different from the dieter’s excuse, “I felt like eating the chocolate cake.”

A common occurrence for me is that I will go into a trader’s room and observe him/her trade. Although the trader may be struggling and losing money every day, generally they make money while I am watching them. This is not because I am offering such grand market insights; usually I do not impose my market views on a trader. Rather, I require the trader to verbalize the reasons behind his or her trade. This has the natural effect of slowing down their trading and making them distinguish between genuine trade ideas and mere trading impulses.

From my vantage point, all trading ideas boil down to variations on two themes:

1. The market is trending, and we want to buy pullbacks in an upward trend; sell bounces in a downward trend;
2. The market is range bound, and we want to sell moves toward the top of the range once buying dies out; buy moves to the lower end of the range once selling dries up.

If I am employing solid reasoning in my trading, I want to assess the status of those themes in both the time frame that I am trading and in the larger time frame. A trend in a shorter-time frame may be part of a range in a longer frame; a range in the short time frame may be a consolidation within a larger trend. Not infrequently, your ideas regarding targets for a trade will come from the assessment of the larger time frame.

A sure-fire way to identify impulsive trades is by their absence of a well-conceived exit. Ninety percent of the effort is going into getting into the trade—the entry—because the purpose of the trade is to be in the market, not to make a profit. The impulsive trader seeks action, not results. Because exits are associated with the cessation of action, they get short shrift.

Conversely, the reasoned trade contains several components:

1. An assessment of current price behavior: Is buying pressure expanding or contracting; is selling pressure expanding or contracting; is price volatility expanding or contracting?
2. An assessment of market conditions at shorter and longer time frames: trending or bracketing?
3. A target for the trade: A move to new highs/lows for a trend trade; a move toward a price mean for a bracketing trade.
4. Criteria for stopping the trade: Conditions that will convince you that your trade idea is no longer valid
5. A decision of resource allocation to the trade: How much of your capital you are willing to put at risk on the trade idea.

If talking these five components out loud before each trade would lead you to trade less often and would lead you to trade far differently from how you’re currently trading, there is a likelihood that you are overtrading. There is definitely something to be said for having a feel for trading. That doesn’t mean, however, that feelings substitute for market knowledge and awareness."

by Brett


later

Andy
 

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Bloodhound

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Hi Andy,

Another great article and, again, sits very well in here. I'm sure you know that what is written there has struck a chord with me, and for all the right reasons. I would be lying if I wasn't already aware of my failings in this regard but it is the first time I have had it explained to me.

That said, I'm pleased I may be ticking a couple of Brett's boxes in other areas.

Thank you!!

Bye for now

Rob
 

Vaco

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been following the thread from the start but I just cant see (or dont want to see) the set ups and profit potential on the 5 min chart.

Was flicking through the TF's and it jumped out at me on the 1 min. So i tracked for the last hour and below is what i saw.

POsting a 5 min as well so its comparable to what others are posting but it was all done on the 1 min.
 

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Bloodhound

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Hi Elefteros,

Thanks for posting those. I must admit I scoot down to M1 sometimes - the picture isn't that much different. Here's a quick M5 chart of cable that I knocked up- pretty much the same as yours. She's spiky today so hard work but the trend is there, although for how much longer - who knows??!! One thing to bear in mind is that we're into mid-morning chop chop now so it's quite possible for some consolidation in my experience. To that end I tend to take a lot of what is going on with a pinch of salt. All that said, cable will now print a LrL and tank 300 points so what do I know!!!!????

If you're unsure re the set-ups profit potential would it help if I posted a walk-through of a day at some point? As I said at the start of the thread, I'm not really the right person to offer anything up other than what I do myself (and a lot of it may be open to criticism) but if it would help I'll try.

All the best

Rob
 
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