Trading FTSE based on Dow close

[sandpiper]

wideboy,

Back to the original topic.........

You've really two threads in one. Your original thoughts on a "system" and then the viability of binary options as an instrument for trading the system.

Regarding your system. Clearly it's the start of a method. I know a few people who've gone broke trading it, mostly due to lack of any kind of money management it has to be said.

Traditionally, any market or commodity closing in the top end of its range would be expected to show some kind of follow on the next day. It seems to me that the ftse often opens and trades based on where it expects the US to open later that day, rather than purely on the previous evenings close. With that in mind, DOW up = FTSE up can often be refined.

Heres a few other "mini seasonals" that may help (or may not........), or may give you other ideas in your continued analysis. They are observations (not mine I hasten to add.... haven't had an original thought my entire life!!!!) largely based on the US futures markets.

First, daily:

Monday: Sets tone for week. Bonds/Gold higher on Monday if no weekend problems.
Tuesday: Top or bottom of move. 11:30 favorite time for tops and bottoms.
Wednesday: Most powerful trends of week. Big money decides how next week will play out on Wednesday.
Thursday: Evening up day as bigger traders already maneuvering for weekend.
Friday: Fear day. If low of week is Monday then high should be Friday. Small traders abandon losing positions on Friday.

Monthly:

1st Notice Day: Bullish as floor buys up.
1st 10 Days: Bullish as dividends, monthly salaries and government checks are all issued.
End of Quarter: Window dressing. Buy anything that’s done well. Sell anything that’s done badly.
End of Month: Brokerage effect. If your broker has had a bad month he will be trying to boost his monthly performance by getting you into trades that you really shouldn't be in.

Regarding the second part of your original thread, i.e Binary Options. I would just ask why? (not having a go, just interested in your reasoning). As I said on the previous thread, I've yet to discover any value in binary options over and above futures/sb in trading based on direction/price/volume.

Clearly, the sensible side to be on with options (6 out of 7 times) is to be the writer. Options are predominantly (not exclusively) a tool for trading or hedging/managing volatility. By using them to "trade" direction/price are you not giving up even more of your "edge" than with traditional spread betting? (the IG binary option spreads seem a tadge wide to me....).

If it's because of the limited liability, I can partly understand. However, since you can place guaranteed stops on your sb, maybe I can't.

Interested in your thoughts.

 

[sandpiper]

Nero Tulip,

Nice volatility play btw............

 

[Skimbleshanks]

Very useful descriptions of day and month tendencies, Sandpiper. Thank you!

 

[Alfaman]

Sandpiper,

Interesting thoughts. As to your question "why ?"

I am open to any better system you can suggest ( I am looking for a mechanical EOD system that makes regular profits and preferably doesn't leave the position open over night or rely on discretionary input) but from my calcs. the Binary system originally postulated by Wideboy would have given a profit this year of £18,650 for a £10/pt stake based on always getting 50:50 odds wheras spread betting the FTSE on the same basis also at £10/pt would have peaked at £11,800 in July and since dropped to £8900 by today.

Ok this assumes no stop losses on the spread betting which I will add to my model.

Any thoughts ?

Alfaman

 

[Alfaman]

Post script to last message - that was assuming a very small (ie 4 points) average bias by the spreadbetting companies. A bias of 9 points wipes the profit out completely for this year.

 

[Wideboy]

Alfaman, what are you using to backtest the system?

 

[jitasb]

Hello ...
With ref to the orginal posting for this thread.
Is the binary bet on FTSE always left to close...or do you close early ?? ....because presumably once the DOW opens at 2.30pm, this will influence the FTSE up/down binary just as much as the previous DOW close ??

Interesting idea though ...

 

[Wideboy]

System as it stands is to simply leave until expiry.
However as you say, once 2:30pm comes along there is often a significant reversal which happens - but that is a different ball game all together.
As I stated earlier in this thread, there is often a good opportunity for a trade if FTSE is fairly flat and the Dow opens strongly.

 

[Alfaman]

Wideboy,

I'm just using an excel spreadsheet to analyse Hi Lo Open Close data downloaded from a free download website. Obviously, as you pointed out earlier we can neither apply the actual binary odds or the spreadbetting bias using this method butit's all I've got.

Can you recommend a good analysis package that is worth the money ?

Alfaman

 

[Wideboy]

Sadly no, I use Excel too!

 

[jitasb]

Have dabbled with binaries for a while now... I think you can get the big wins, but it is difficult to make money consistently over the long term.
Some strategies I have tried as follows:

1) Sell the "FTSE up/down > 50 at 12:00 PM" on the night before after DOW close....relying on fact that FTSE won't move over 50 points before midday...doesn't seem to happen that often. So can get a few points, sometimes up to 10 - 15. Only problem is that if you the one trade which goes against you..it will cost you 90 odd points..

2) Buy DOW range which is 30-40 points away from current range...relying on a reversal before close. It only needs to come back 15 - 20 point and the quote will change fairly quickly, so can close early.

3) Buy two ranges say 20 - 30 up and 20-30 down (say on the DAX)....with view that as the day progresses, one of these will come into the money and will offset the loss on the other.

4) The 10 point range on FTSE can be a risky one if left until close. Occasionally if say the fTSE is middle of range 10-20 up (i.e it is 15 up) at 4:28pm. Subsequently after 4:29pm (when you can no longer trade) the index can move sharply , say by 6 or more points, hence moving out of the current range. This could be a problem if you bougt at say 85 or 90 with view that it is in middle and likely to stay that way.

Any thougts form other binary betters ???

 

[Wideboy]

My 'method' is to only buy at low prices, so I wouldn't be in a trade such as your last example as the risk/reward is not adequate.
I like to trade the reversals, eg FTSE gaps up at open, I then buy a FTSE down @ a low price hoping to pick up a few points on the reversal (if there is one of course ) )
I'm ready for all the negative comments about 'guessing', but basically I predict where I think the market will go. For example, this morning I expected the markets to be fairly weak so I bought a 'FTSE down >30 at 12pm' at around 7:15AM @ a price of 10.7, hoping that even if it doesn't fall by over 30 it will come near to it hence giving me a few points at least. Risking just 11.7*stake with a real possibility in my view that the FTSE would fall.
I let it run and at 11:30 I closed at 78.2 when the FTSE was sitting at around -30. Nice profit of 66.5 points. I could have let it go till close and would have got 88.3 points but prices can be very volatile close to expiry and as FTSE was hovering around the -30 mark it could have gone either way. +66.5 is better than -11.7!
All I look at is price action over the current and past days and get a 'feeling' for the market.

I don't have a system as such, but look for good prices being offered on markets which have a reasonable chance of happening or getting close to happen. Buying at 10 to 20 gives good room for a few points gain as binary prices can be very volatile, moving 20+ points with just a few points move on the index itself.

 

[jitasb]

Yes....good call today...
I have tried that method as well...problem is deciding when to close, because as you say a 20 point gain can quickly into a loss.

Why did you decide to leave it running until 11:30 as opposed to closing earlier when presumably it was in it he 50s ???

Ta...

 

[Wideboy]

Sorry I don't quite understand, what was in the 50s? I was watching the price and index value all morning and felt that at 11:30 it wasn't worth sitting out another half hour and risk losing on a rebound.

 

[jitasb]

Wasn't clear in what I said...so I'll rephrase
You opened the bet at 10.7 (for FTSE down > 30).
The FTSE fell during the morning, so your bet came into profit, and you closed at 11:30am at 78.2.
But presumably as the morning progressed, the quote from IG moved from 10.7 upwards...going thru the 50's ...i.e were you tempted to close at say 50 rather than 78.2 ?? ...What I'm getting at is how you decided to let it run all the way thru to 11:30am, when you were in profit quite a lot earlier than that ??

Ta...

 

[Wideboy]

Ah yes I understand you now!
Well basically once the price started moving up towards 50 it moved pretty quickly and by the time it got to 70ish, the index price was only a couple of points away from the down >30 point, so I took the money. Its hard to explain but I just had a feeling for where the market was going and waited for it to happen.
Sorry I can't explain any clearer than that.
Its hard to now when the best time to take your profit is - for example yesterday I was 55 points in profit but then there was some movement and within about 2 mins it was down to just 25 so I took it quickly before it turned into a losing trade!

 

[jitasb]

Thanks for your reply..
I tried a reversal trade on the DOW this evening and got 30 odd points out of it. The thing with the DOW compared to FTSE is that it moves more quickly, so you can place your reversal trade further away in a range., hence getting a lower starting price.

Quite like the new BinaryBets site. Seems a bit quicker and the layout is easier on the eye. Plus sporting options coming up.

Just as an aside, is this thread the correct one for Binary bet discussions, or is there a dedicated binary bet thread ?

 

[Wideboy]

Now you come to mention it, this thread originally started from a simple idea I had of placing binary bets on FTSE in the direction of the previous days Dow close.

I'll start another thread, specifically for Binary Bet discussions.