Trading FTSE based on Dow close

[Wideboy]

Yesterday FTSE closed -ve even though towards the end looked almost certain to close +ve.
Was opportunities during the afternoon for a sub 40 entry, if you had waited till US open (often a wise choice) then once it went +ve you could have bought 'FTSE down' at anything from 30 to as little as 5 at 3:30pm.
Nice little earner of between 70 and 95 x stake size.

So far this week, both days winners, however Mondays was slightly too risky to actually trade due to large gap.

 

[Slaine202]

First of all ... hi, this is my first post

Secondly, thanks for the chart Wideboy. Would it be possible for you to produce a similar backtest for the FTSE 12:00 Binary that IG do?

I'm just about to fund my IG account and have been intending to do something like this, but my idea was to do 2 trades/day, 1 on the FTSE 12:00 before open and 1 on the FTSE close after DJ opens.

 

[Alfaman]

I still don't really understand binary betting but I can now concur with Wideboys thoughts.

My figurtes suggest that from 1998 to date 835 days FTSE followed previous Dow and 641 did not. This year 112 have 77 have not.

When I get the hang of binary I might try this (IG dont seem to have all the worked examples they did withh straight spreadbets).

However, I wonder if it will work with spreadbets as well - I'll check the points position when I get a chance.

 

[Alfaman]

Lovely opportunity today at around 1pm. Could have got odds as low as 15 on FTSE down for a profit of around £255 for a £45 risk.

I am concerned however of the spreadbetters bias. Tonight for example, it's already over 70 on the FTSE closing up. If we don't trade over 50 we will perhaps miss quite a lot of the potential winning bets ?

I kind of hoped 50:50 would be available at some point each day!

Alfaman

 

[Wideboy]

That is a problem Alfaman!
Often on a day which gaps strongly at open and continues the trend through the day, there may not be an opportunity to trade at or below the 50 level.
Works best on undecided days or whipsaw days but not all are like this.
This obviously will affect the results by trading this system.

 

[Alfaman]

What I really want is an EOD mechanical system that we can place and leave with no overnight position - therefore not interfering with work!

i suppose I'm asking too much. IK's system seems good. Although I haven't checked the results tonight.

Going back to your Ftse follows Dow idea on spread betting it does work although the spreadbetting company's bias could send the gains negative and are hard to model.

Alfaman

 

[Wideboy]

Quick update:
After a bad week ending 19/09, 1 win 4 losses, last week was much better with everyday being a winner.
So far this week, yesterday was a winner, today was looking good however the tanking of the Dow sent the FTSE tumbling into the close.

 

[Alfaman]

I thought I'd cracked it today with a bet on the FTSE down (ie following Tuesday's Dow) at 14.7 at around 12:00 before the Dow opened, so I bought £5 and couldn't resist another £5 at 4.4 an hour later, what a bargain - so, that's another ton down the pan!

I hope tomorow's better.

Alfaman

 

[Wideboy]

Expecting FTSE to open strongly but IG quoting 70 now so not ideal. Maybe wait till the morning has passed and get a better entry price.

 

[Alfaman]

Interestingly - well to me anyway, when I saw my money dropping to zero I managed to hedge the loss with the a binary on the Dow. The "Close Up >100" was the highest odds in the 20 point banding so I bought the "Close >50pts up" for £3 at 69 thus recovering all but £2.50 of my FTSE down losses mentioned above.

I wonder if using the quoted odds like this to direct ones trades can be done for a profit more often - although was one of those unusual "up all the way" days.

 

[Nero Tulip]

Hi guys,

I'm new on the forums, have any of you tried trading the fixed odds on betfair financials ? It's basically the same as the Binaries but with tighter margins and you are betting against other people and you can set your own odds and amount. I do this a lot, its much more fun and i think less risk than the binaries, depending on what size you bet in.

Nero

 

[Wideboy]

Can't say I have, sorry!
Do you have much success with them?

 

[Nero Tulip]

Oh yes, its quite easy to find good times during the day to get on. You can bet Up/Down or within which range the ftse will finish in both at Midday and the finish. You can also post your own odds and amount on the screen, very much like trading futures. Its good because you have a set of traders on there exchanging money everyday, very much like a tiny futures exchange and its growing. all types of trading take place on there. The busiest market is the Daily FTSE Up/Down from lunchtime onwards.

I'm surprised there isnt a sports exchange forum on here, myself and many other people make a living trading on betting exchanges, amongst other things (spread betting financials..).

 

[Bigbusiness]

Nero Tulip,

Sounds interesting. Is there a good forum on betting exchanges? If there isn't, you could request TTW to set one up here.

 

[sidinuk]

This site is called TRADE2win, perhaps you guys who like a punt should try somewhere else instead. Can I suggest that Gamblers Anonymous would be more worthwhile for you!