THT's Methods that WIN

[THT]

Some big picture stuff for you to digest

I doubt many people look at monthly chart - this post will cover cycles, using Indicators, moving averages etc

If you have a method and it works, it works! end of story - stick with it, humans are very critical and jealous people - its why I don't tolerate people and its the reason why I will never get involved in the Industry, sell anything or write courses/books - I can just imagine the interactions!

Right, We want to read a market - some markets are just hard to read, so guess what? We just avoid trying to do so and look for something easier

LSE:WPP - MONTHLY chart

What do you see?

• Well we see the history of the stock
• We can see how the moving averages worked
• We can see price v Indicators
• We can see the times when price surged and when it didn't do much
• Double bottoms?
• When things are bullish is price generally above or below the 12 simple moving average? I only use 12 as its a year look back on this chart
• When things are bad where's price in relation to a moving average?
• Look at the ANGLE/SLOPE of the moving averages - notice what they do in tepid moves, steep moves etc
• Also notice that once these moving averages get into PERFECT ORDER on a MONTHLY - they tend to remain in perfect order for MONTHS/YEARS! This allows you to BUY the DIP or SELL the RALLY pretty damn effectively or the BREAKOUT
• Can you start to see why I use them?
• Last few years? What a mess!!!! That usually means you can SHORT the stock and it hasn't failed
• What about the 12RSI?
• Well Notice the levels it typically finds during the UP trends (tends to be 50%+ finding support around that level) and during the DOWN trends it struggles to regain the 50% level, remaining under it and finds bear market LOWS under 30%) - don't worry about bounce from such support you can trade the lower time-frames to catch those - the Important thing is you can SEE with visual evidence that the 12RSI does as I am saying
• What about right now - what do you see?
• BEAR market - Indicators are in the zone for a REVERSAL - that does not mean its going to happen tomorrow!
• We have price right now broken a key level, this could be a Gann Lost Motion over-run from which we will get a bounce OR
• price could descend further to create a TRIPLE BOTTOM (this is my preferred option) from which we'll get a bounce
• I'm not sure on what any bounce will do, the mechanics of this market could for the next few years just form a trading range, or it could bounce up back to the £12 or higher level or it might not do any of that
• You then drop down to the weekly and daily to time any such possible low - I'm not showing that here
• This is why I "clutter" my charts - They ALL have a use, that I want to SEE (I'm a visual person) as soon as I bring up the chart
• It takes me about 10 seconds to be able to read a chart position and history

Anything else?

Well we can use TIMING and CYCLES

We can see that roughly every 4.5-6 YEARS this stock has a significant LOW and from that LOW, price advances for 2-8 years, so you'll have to monitor and adjust accordingly you can see you can't just buy and hold

We are right now in that ZONE

Will it work? we do not know for certain - BUT what we DO know is that a huge amount of TECHNICAL ANALYSIS is alerting us to this market being at or near a possible low point at some point in the next few months - one for the old watchlist I think!

So what you do is reverse engineer what this market HAS AND NEEDS to DO in order to CONFIRM the thinking - and you do that by going back to the past few instances and SEEING what price did on the WEEKLY, DAILY and HOURLY charts at those reversal points - if this market does similar then its a ultra high probability signal to which you can trade/INVEST

Is it guaranteed to work? - HELL NO, its ultra high probability, but that's not a 100% - We don't know for certain the CYCLE low is happening now, it could be happening in a few months time!

We will KNOW that the cycle low is in once PRICE regains the 12SMA on the monthly chart - that MEANS on the daily and weekly prices WILL HAVE TO BOUNCE and if it works out, then if we can get in at £3-4 range, we can see that any such bounce could quite easily get to £6+ which gives us a nice potential % return

If its NOT clear within 1 minute of looking at a chart - move on until you find one that is clear, then work out a plan of action

 

[THT]

Rest day on the tour today, so we've driven to Thursday's stage and parked up - Tonight's tea is going to be a sausage & egg baguette, brown sauce, a bottle of Pinot Noir and a cheese board washed down with some fine English ale

There's a lot of down time at the tour and some say I'm mad for doing this just to see the race for 10 mins each day - thank god for TV and the Internet, we can record it, watch it live etc so we keep up to date with the race and entertained

I've skipped tomorrows stage - I'll watch it on the TV as it won't be that exciting - I've replenished supplies, topped up the wine rack, filled up the water tanks, recharged the batteries and cleaned out the sewage! Tonight I am parked right at the TOP of this - at altitude! Thursday's stage is the 1st day in the Pyrenees and what a stage it should be - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hautacam - This is what I love about cycling, the mountains are killers, if you've every tried to climb a French, Italian or Spanish mountain, you'll know! Its hard enough in a motorhome, let alone a bike!

So I'll do some exploring tomorrow of the area, work out the best viewing spot - the crowds will be in the 10,000's - hence why I'm here a day early, seems like a few others have the exact same idea, Then we are still in the mountains until Sunday, then a rest day Monday, then we will be on the side of the road somewhere up Mount Ventoux - what a mountain that is, I'll be paying my respects to Tommy Simpson who died of a heart attack on that very tour de France stage back in the late 1960's, the only English rider to grace the great race back in those times

Few days in the Alps then home England bound

Anyway, back to the reason of the post:

I want to impress this upon you as a trader if you are struggling or need clarity

You cannot just pick up a chart and trade! You HAVE to WAIT for picture perfect set-ups to COME TO YOU - you might have to wait ALL DAY for such things! and you ONLY GET what the market GIVES to you

Now this is the COMPLETE AFTER the FACT picture - you have to use your brain to see the build up

So you look at this chart at say 8am at the open - The picture on the 30 min and 10 min is bearish, price under the SMA's, SMA's in perfect downtrend order BUT, Price just moves SIDEWAYS in a range - how frustrating! - You have had to wait until 2-3pm for this thing to do something

Remember if you are going to short something, the ideal scenario is for the stochs to be BEARISH AND PRICE UNDER the SMA's

That all happened around 3pm on the chart

Notice on the 3 min chart how price was "Hugged" by the SMA's before the start of the waterfall - that is a common feature

Then notice how the 1 min chart reacts all the way down and all the other time-frames

The 1 min chart does NOT break a prior swing high all the way down - same for the 3 min - this is the tell-tale signs of LOWER prices

If you look around 15:15 on the 1 or 3 min charts - as soon as you get a CLOSE below the 10SMA AND BREAK of the LOWEST LOW of the consolidation zone = SHORT, stop would be just above the high of consolidation range

When the STEEPNESS of the SMA's are as they are in the 3 min chart, you can trail a stop @ the 20 SMA and it won't get touched UNTIL the trend stalls and ends = notice on a theoretical clock face the angle of the SMA's and the 10SMA were heading down towards 5 O'Clock, this angle generates these types of moves and they happen LOTS per week on various markets

I bet loads of people were LONG due to the FTSE100 hitting 9000

anyway when a market turns down, this PICTURE happens ALOT and you can easily see it would have made more than 2R because ALL the relevant TIME-FRAMES were ALIGNED to the DOWNSIDE

As research, go look what happened last FRIDAY 11th July that you can see on the 30 min chart and drill down to the relevant time-frames

Use the HIGHER time-frames to filter and set-up, then use the lower time-frames to TRIGGER and ENTER

 

[THT]

Thoroughly recommend this part of France, I've been coming to this and the alps region of France for years, following the Tour around

There's LOADS of FREE parking, some great little towns en-route and great cuisine - Luz St Sauveur is one of those towns, its got a campsite to replenish stores too - its also the gateway to some fabulous classic tour climbs, which you can do in a car, note, these climbs are steep and long, getting out of 2nd gear doesn't happen much going UP them

I'm doing my bit for inter-continental relations, had a few ales with some German, Spanish and Italian's last night around the firepit - yes I take one with me! - the English ale went down very well

I'm just browsing - no trading - my trading universe, because I wanted to follow up on yesterdays post..............................................................

FTSE100 was discussed, well here's EURGBP from TODAY

Looks very similar! because these patterns follow the same/similar shapes in up and down trends

when the market goes sideways with very little upward momentum you can safely short it when the low point of the consolidation is exceeded and price bar closes under the 10SMA - obviously prior to the consolidation you can short price breaks of lows under the 10SMA

In trading, it separates the men from the boys, because you HAVE absolutely no where to hide, you'll either do well or badly, because it is dependent upon:

1. Having a method that actually works
2. Trading to a plan and rules
3. Having the discipline to stick to the plan and rules - this is where most people can't handle

Next update will once back in Blighty

PS - the cheese board was exceptional, if I say so

 

[THT]

Few updates, back from France, prepping for Spain now, we have the Spanish version of the Tour De France happening end of August through into Sept, so I'm off following that around like the TDF - this one is usually very hot and I'm not a fan of the heat, so the air con will be working overtime I think

Took this trade for the pension fund & ISA's before I left for France - self explanatory - I cashed out at the purple line due to not wanting to manage this when on the road in France

With DAILY time-frames I prefer MONTHS between the bottoms, rather than days - this DB was circa 4 months - the WEEKLY TF at the DB was oversold and the expected bounce is as you see here, it went on to do a bit more than the purple line, but at 4R I was happy

Right this is the last example of this - If you can't get the picture, re-read everything:

I've NOT traded this, just showing you these things show up EVERY DAY

FTSE100 - 30 min BULLISH, price pulling back into the SMA's, Stoch BEARISH = NOT aligned (even though you could have traded this short for the pullback on the 3 or 1 min TF's, the safer trade was long on the reversal of the pullback as then EVERYTHING was aligned to the upside and the path of least resistance

Here we have the opposite on EURUSD - 30 min = BEARISH - the X shows the bear rally end and reversal on differing TF's

you can trade long the bear rallies, but again the path of least resistance is the short once EVERYTHING aligns

Remember we're expecting some sort of low to happen on the daily/weekly charts of the SP500 Index - there is currently no sign whatsoever of that happening and its definitely NOT guaranteed, so we will have to just wait and see if anything happens

If anything is going to happen, it should start from now through to Oct, as mentioned I'm away on the road for a good chunk of that and I have no plans to update until I'm back mid Sept

If a decline happens, it should be quickly recovered which is highly likely to rebound upwards into spring 2026 - where we have the Beast cycle - this is just logical reasoning, I might be totally wrong

Whenever I have an opinion like this, I still just trade what I SEE, not what I think - If I get any weekly DB's when away, I will take them, other than that I'll try to stay away from the screen as much as possible, but I'll not be searching for new trades other than DB/TB's, as I have the luxury of not needing to trade or put positions on - as mentioned in a post or two above, I might not even trade for the rest of the year, it's very much a take it as i see it, which can change from week to week lol!

On the WAR cycle - technically we have confirmation its happened, however, as you know the preferred outcome is direct USA boots on the ground type action - Trump has given Putin a deadline, all these little aggressive actions and talk, start to mount up - best thing to do is just keep abreast of this, wars are good for stock markets! There'll be an initial sell-off, then a rebound upwards, "IF" things get really serious with military action

We also have the 18 yr property cycle low due in 2026 too - this typically happens due to some sort of stalling of the business cycles and business outlook, which fits in to what is currently happening and expected to happen in spring 2026

Trade well and trade safe, catch you later in the year

 

[THT]

OK, lets watch and play this one out

I've mentioned this one a few weeks/months ago

LSE: DOM - the pizza company, other than that I have zero Interest in the company

This has just triggered an alert this am - the triple bottom LINE on the MONTHLY chart has been hit

This is just an alert - there is absolutely NO guarantee this is going to work, its just "in the zone" - which makes you sit up and look

MONTHLY:

• variable 3 year cycle has played out since inception of this stock, we are now in that 3yr cycle low zone
• TRIPLE BOTTOM potential
• "IF" its a genuine TB, then the swing high around 440 will be hit
• "WHATEVER" happens, this market on the monthly time-frame should bounce UP to some degree within the next few weeks/months - as it is impossible for those Indicators (which follow price) to remain oversold forever - It is perfectly possible for price and Indicators to diverge, so that is always a possibility, but the assumption is pattern, time and Indicators are moving into a position where a bounce up should be high probability

WEEKLY:

• I'd still prefer a WEEKLY bar to get into that prior swing low zone - if its going to happen it should happen in the next month or so
• The 2RSI can still fall further, this would support the move into the double bottom zone
• Don't forget on the monthly chart this is a Triple Bottom
• From experience, those Indicators need to move upwards in the next few weeks - "IF" they do what they are designed to do, they WILL follow price upwards, which means price moves upwards - they can diverge, but probability is upwards

DAILY:

• Still BEARISH
• Just need to keep an eye on this still
• Price needs to drop 20p to get to the double bottom in an ideal world
• Whatever happens, at present this is just a watch as it unfolds
• Once price on this daily time-frame turns bullish (Price > 10SMA, 10SMA.20SMA and a 123 formation with a bullish reversal on the stoch (ideally in the oversold zone) OR if price creates a picture perfect double bottom on the WEEKLY TF (with a DAILY stoch bullish reversal) = time to buy, until then just watch and wait
• As we have absolutely no clue what price action will do, we may need to drop down to the 60 min chart to get a better trade - we will ONLY know that at the time price decides to get bullish
• REMEMBER, there is no guarantee that this will work - price could just go crashing down through the already formed double bottom on the monthly chart - this is WHY we only buy on CONFIRMED bullishness

"IF" this does work out - then price should as a minimum bounce back to the MONTHLY 12SMA, which should be in the 290-280p zone - Ideally it should go towards those prior swing HIGHS on the WEEKLY chart

I know exactly what is going to happen here - as I'm on the road to, in and from Spain in a few weeks time, that's when its going to trigger, to cause maximum inconvenience

For the time being its sat in the watchlist