THT's Methods that WIN

[THT]

Off on a tangent

Trade Commodities?

Keep your eye on the Commitment of Traders [COT] reports - these are LAGGING by a week or so, BUT the delayed info they provide can be big heads up in the markets

The ONLY line we need to worry about is the RED line on the Indicator - this shows you the position of the BIG commercials, these are the ultimate INSIDERS and this is LEGAL - so you may as well use those in the know to benefit from

What you want to look for is when the big commercials get to the 0 line, close to it or above it, it means that they are NET LONG the market and because of what the commercials do, their NORMAL position is to be NET SHORT the market, not long, so when they get close to being LONG, we need to be on alert for when they go net SHORT again and what for price rallies

You'll get the picture in the following charts - remember NET LONG commercials = possible LONG turning points for the retail trader once the commercials head back into NET SHORT territory

Notice that the Large Specs FOLLOW the market, you could use them being NET LONG from a NET SHORT position as well - but they can be wrong at times and DEFINITELY DO NOT FOLLOW the small specs - they are always in a state of flux!

Then you would also tie this in with the Soft Commodities cycle I showed you early in the thread = TIMED all the big moves

Look at the CORN market - go find the corn cycle post chart in this thread, notice that in 2020, we were looking for a big price spike high to continue the 4 year cycle, that never happened and prices fell instead, the cycle INVERTED into a LOW - KNOWING this Information had you looking at the corn chart in 2020 watching for a bull reversal as we'd expect highs in 2022 - watching the COMMERCIALS NET position highlighted when to be ready and it worked perfectly

Now going back to the cycle corn chart - what cycle should we expect in 2024 as that is a 4 year cycle year?

a LOW yes, because the pattern of BLUE cycle circles on that chart show LOWS apart from 1 Inversion - So "IF" those soft comm markets show/display hallmarks suggesting lows, then we would be looking for bullish reversals to be getting long - we may have a Inversion, but you trade what you see and what we see are the commercials in corn, building a lot of Inventory in corn futures!

You can use the strategies I'm showing in this thread to trade those markets, depending on your plan etc

Once again apologies for typos - keyboard is working 5 weeks behind my typing, cleaned the comp, anti-virus etc and history, reset the wifi, but its slow!

 

[THT]

Let me show you some recent trades using the CCI and RSI methods previously discussed

30 Min chart of the FTSE100 Index

We had a -300 reading on the CCI (Extreme oversold) AND the 15RSI was <25%

So we WAIT and look for a reversal to the prior trend from down to possibly UP

We got it fairly quick - moving averages crossed and went BULLISH, we then WAIT for a pullback and as you can see we made some good trades

I'll show you entry and what not later on - just get the format, formation and pattern learnt for now - I've shown you multiple charts using Indicators as the key trading method, IF you get this right, you can use Indicators, if you use Indicators randomly then you will most likely lose

NOTICE - That we didn't pile in on the Indicator signal, we WAITED for price to show us it might be turning and only then did we start putting positions on

and this would have you holding these position overnight so there's added risk by doing that, that you'd have to factor in to your trading risk management etc

If you don't want to hold overnight, then you need to trade lower time-frames etc

I class these trades as 80% probability, as the trend develops the probability reduces - note that in-between PINK arrow 1 and 2, there were trading opportunities, I didn't mark them simply because so far I've said that we only trade when price pulls back in an uptrend and is ABOVE the SMA's - you could trade the price spikes if you're an aggressive trader - Sometimes I do and sometimes I don't, it usually depends on how I'm feeling at the time, so you can see the human aspect comes into it sometimes - Also note that the 2RSI is pretty good at identifying and picking out the mini cycles that price makes

In this next chart, I show you the price spikes in a DOWNTREND that I like to take
The - line donates a trade, the x donates a set up that didn't conform to a rule (such as wrong order of the SMA's etc)

The trick here is just to understand and get to know what the price action does and what the Indicators do in certain market conditions - but as always and its a LAW of the market, trade in the direction of the trend

I'm hesitant to state possibilities, but they are many per month per market you look at - Here's a winning trade from today's trading session on GOLD

Price above SMA's, SMA's bullish, 2RSI<25%, created a mini swing 1,2 - acceptable range trigger bar = set long order

As you can visibly see, the rally was short lived, but it WORKED, this is WHY you HAVE to have a price target in mind and/or trailing stop to lock in profits according to what suits YOU best

What you never do is let a profit turn into a loss, NEVER

 

[THT]

Another spike high/top (They happen OFTEN)

Trend = DOWN
Price rally into the SMA's
2RSI >75%
Trade to think about = SHORT
Entry = 1 pip under the LOW of the black set-up bar
Stop 1 pip above the HIGH of the black set-up bar

You decide how you manage the trade once its live

 

[THT]

Last ones for a while - you should be getting the picture

In a post above I mentioned something squaring out - this occurs in EARLY FEB'24 - Notice how there's bearish divergence on lots of Indexes out there and stocks on either the 14/15RSI on DAILY charts!

Blue circles = Trade as per rules
Red circle = Losing trade
Pink circles = DIVERGENCE trades

See TUI and TSCO for other examples if you're inclined

Sometimes this week I will post how I ENTER and calculate RISK for you step by step

 

[THT]

Here's how you trade these set-ups including risk calculation - this is universal based on risking a % of your account - if you do anything different then you'll need to understand how your method of working out the amount to risk works etc

The "logic" is:

• We are trying to find the cycle turn and reversal point, so
• If we do this, then logically price will NOT go lower than cycle turn bar low - you can validate that is all the examples shown and in the chart in this post, we got other perfect pullbacks in the trend which reversed and did not violate the trigger/set-up bars
• For safety, you could place the stop under the swing low point, that's something for you to work out comfort levels with etc
• Then all it is down to is your handling of trade and risk management - I'm not going to show you how I do it, but I trail stops up and I get to break-even as quickly as possible - as you can see, when you're RIGHT, price does not faff about and it moves upwards fairly well

Notice that in this example, the SMA's were NOT in perfect order - BUT price WAS above the 10/20 SMA's AND created a mini 1-2 formation, this is perfectly fine, as "IF" price does as we think, it will drag the SMA's up into the perfect formation and validate the 1-2 formation

Once again get into the habit of noting that the 2RSI identifies cycles in price action!

 

[THT]

I thought this might be relevant, This was written (from memory) around 1940, by another great trader called George Bayer

I would encourage you to find and buy his "Egg of Columbus" book to add to your trading/Investing bookshelf or replace some of the rubbish you've thrown out over the years - I make no apologies to the fact that I've thrown out far more trading books than I've kept, another example that most of the stuff spouted in the Industry is rubbish

Anyway, as you can see, TREND, TREND, TREND and PULLBACK, PULLBACK, PULLBACK in action

TAKE NOTE of the "Champagne" and preceding section - Then note how close it looks in formation to the current position of the SP500!

 

[THT]

So if you've read through the thread, you know the score, I'm going to slow down posts now

The only way you win in this game is by having FAITH in the method and become emotionless in the execution and trade management

Here's 2 from yesterday:

 

[tomorton]

Well done THT for bringing so much knowledge and experience to the site. I'm going to have to re-visit your posts but already I 'm confident you're providing more insight than several trading/investing guidebooks I have read.

 

[THT]

Well done THT for bringing so much knowledge and experience to the site. I'm going to have to re-visit your posts but already I 'm confident you're providing more insight than several trading/investing guidebooks I have read.

Thanks tomorton,

Happy to share

 

[THT]

As well as basic trading, I also look at TIME in an advanced way - The condition that caused the OCT 27th 2023 rally SQUARES OUT on Tuesday 6th FEB'24 - It is highly likely to cause a reversal in trend and/or pretty volatile swings in the SP500 - trade accordingly in the weeks that follow, just be alert to the fact that something on the TIME side of the market is happening

Then watch March 6th 2024 as that is EXACTLY 15 years from the 2009 LOW on the SP500 and this is WD Gann's 30 year cycle which 15 yrs = 180 degrees of or 50% - The expectation is that on the 15 yr anniversary you should expect the opposite of the position 15 yrs prior, but this is not always the case

The ideal scenario would be a decline in FEB down into March and then a reversal upwards in March - Just remember that the market will do what it does, we just piggy back along, so trade what you see, not what you think - just giving you the heads up to some TIME aspects that could play out

 

[THT]

and every now and then this happens and by that I mean much more than a handful of times per year - This is up and trailing at 10R+ locked in

Trade the method - IT WORKS!!!!!!!!! - 15 min chart

This is the DAILY chart [below] - as you can see we we're looking for our method on the daily chart from yesterdays CLOSE - the trigger point was at 14711 ish, on the 15 min chart this am we look and watch for our set-up on that chart and if it happens then the probability of some sort of rally simply from the 2RSI position tells us some sort of rally is highly probable, price is also in the "moving averages buy zone"

There'll be some sort of news out that caused the rally, but, the facts remain, using my method, I was alert and ready & waiting for potential rally simply from the method employed

EDIT - You'd of gone long the pair on the DAILY bar too

Have a good weekend

 

[THT]

So we know a method to trade the TREND, using an Indicator or no Indicator

But we don't trade every signal, well I don't, some set-ups aren't worth the risk

In this 1st chart the trend from Oct'23 was bullish - I missed the 1st pullback opportunity because the pullback bar did not exceed the prior bars high (it was exactly the same price), then the next day price gapped higher, I deem this too wide a entry to take, even though it worked, I would not entry due to the gap - I got a second opportunity on the next 2RSI<25% as price went sideways

Anyway I digress - look at the circled part of the chart - note the RANGE of the bar noted X, its a PERFECT set-up apart from the range of the bar, I'd pass at that potential opportunity - it came to nothing anyway as price never exceeded the high of that wide range bar

Then 1 bar later we get price pulling further back and that range I would deem acceptable, that bar was not triggered with an entry so no trade, then the next bar..........

Was PERFECT, small range, set-up conditions all in place = go long if the bar high is exceeded

Now that happened the next day BUT price GAPPED up on the open - I always set ALARMS at the perfect entry point, this one fired off on the gap, but I didn't take the trade at that point, I reset the alarm and that was triggered when price plunged down to fill the gap, at that point I reset the alarm (as price had traded below the entry point), the alarm was triggered again and at that time I bought in

In hindsight, but NOT my RULES, I should have bought in below the trigger point to get better terms - BUT, there was no way of knowing that price would not continue going lower! So what resulted was a lot of faff and additional work for me, only for the trade to execute as originally planned!

If only the markets understood our delicate plights!

This next chart shows a similar thing (RANGE bars) - the first bar was wide(ish) and didn't result in much, the second trade opportunity was a nice narrow ranged bar executed nicely

Now, You can trade those wider ranged bars, you could scalp them for quick fast profits or hope for a decent trend to follow or create rules to suit you

Also I mentioned somewhere else in the thread, that when you get this RIGHT, price does NOT trade lower than the trigger/entry bar - As you can see, this allows you to set tight initial stops which allows you to position size accordingly

PS - I'll show you why as a trader you're destined for failure (in a future post) - Not because you're bad, but because of the conditions that control markets - Imagine you enter a enclosed cube, then 1000 rubber bouncing balls are thrown into the cube, but there's an Invisible force that propels the balls at varying speeds making it hard to catch them and/or "read", as payment you're only paid if you catch a certain coloured ball - Well if you randomly enter the cube and try to catch, you've got one hell of a fight on your hands, However, If before you enter the cube you work out when and the speed of the coloured ball your after is going to be propelled into the cube, at least you have a more Informed chance of its presence and therefore working out a strategy to catch it - In short in the markets CYCLES let you do this, but they are not as simple as you're led to believe
In the 1960's JM Hurst published some good books on cycles - They were cycles of varying length, as sometimes the cycle was exact, but most of the time the cycles were "off" by a little - Notice in the chart above you can see the cycles on the Indicators, you can also see the LOW & HIGH pivot points (swings on the swing file) BUT, the High-High and Low-Low swings are NOT static time periods

The REASON for that is you're FORCED to view price on a 2 dimensional chart - If we could view in 3 dimensions AND incorporate TIME into the chart properly, then everything would be easier to see, predict and trade - BUT that will NEVER happen and so we will always get the H-H/L-L swings that look slightly "twisted", purely down to the constraints of charting capabilities and TIME aspects that we cannot see

This is why I watch the swing file (zigzag) chart they help to show a wealth of Information as well as Identifying the pivot point extremes that price prints - I think from memory on stocks the swing file is set to move once price moves 4% and on forex, Comms and Indices 1% for the DAILY charts, then higher %'s for weekly charts etc

 

[THT]

WD Gann, produced some wacky courses over his life and his novel "Tunnel Thru the Air" points the reader to using Astronomy and Astrology to TIME the markets - With Astronomy, you know the exact location of a planets position, with Astrology, you start to add "meaning" to positions of planets and that can be highly subjective, which is why idf you ask 20 Astrologists to give you a prediction, you'll probably get 38 differing predictions - In later posts I'll show you how you can use Astronomy or ASTRO based analysis to pinpoint turns in the market - this is the Holy Grail of Trading/Investing so I won't be revealing too much - Be under no doubt though, these are the "conditions" that control the worlds financial markets or the people who trade those financial markets which then show up on price charts as significant turning points

Anyway, before you run off and get Gann's courses, you need to be aware that he never truly reveals anything in those courses! You have to do a huge amount of ground work to work out what he was getting at - his most basic courses contradicted each other and if you tried to trade his mechanical method you'd get mediocre results at best - UNLESS you happened to TIME the turns through luck

To save you a huge amount of time, work out the planetary cycles for Gann's "Time Cycles" (planets do not go around in a perfect circle, so the cycles are not exact static set cycles as he [Gann] mentions in his courses and also google Ganns Soybean 1948 chart as well as his Coffee Santos 1954 letter to see what he was dong - I'll run a future post on them sometime, just remember that apart from his soybean chart and the coffee letter, 99% of Gann's material was written with double meaning, he lets slip that Saturn is the 30 year cycle in one version of his courses,

WD Gann wrote a course on GEOMETRICAL ANGLES, these are more commonly called Gann Angles - he later went on to Incorporate these angles into a Gann Box/Square of x by x proportions (I've shown you some of these boxes in posts in this thread)

Anyway, What Gann meant by Gann Angles was Planetary Angles, but for the time being lets keep it as simple as possible

You will NOT get results if you simply apply Gann's 1 point per bar (hour/day/week/month) and MOST charting packages out there don't create the angles correctly - they HAVE to remain FIXED in place so when your chart rescales itself, the angle stays put - If you are not 100% confident on your software's Gann angles, then don't trade using them

I'm also not revealing the scaling required per market to get the correct angle - once you have the 1 x 1 all the other angles are simple multiplications of the 1 x 1 scaling

Gann said you can beat the market from simply trading off the 1 x 1 angle - the next few charts will prove that fact as well as why markets often turn out of the blue from thin air!

People think Gann is fixed, clear cut and known - its not, but its pretty close

Gann also states in his course on Gann Angles that "when an angle is broken, it falls to the next and so on" - This can be clearly seen in the chart below

Now if you look at the chart below you can also see EXACTLY why prices bounced out of "thin air" - sometimes these angles will coincide with the GEOMETRICAL ratio's I've previously mentioned, for example the Oct'23 "bounce" hit the 1 x 1 angle as well as a retracement level of 33%

What is 33%? its a ratio of the CUBE

As you can see bounces off these very Important levels are very good trades - they don't happen all the time, so you can't expect them all the time - I can tell you that the March'23 and Oct'23 bounces also coincided with Planetary Timing! and 2RSI <25%

Here's a common problem with the angles and when this happens you need to think on your feet

Sometimes price will move/accelerate at a rate much faster than the 1 x 1 angle, as seen in this chart of the Nasdaq from the 2020 low

So the solution is shown in the chart below - You draw Gann angles from the next major low correction points if the trend is still UP

As you can see, attempt #1 off the first decent correction was there or there about's, but the 2nd correction was what the market was working off, until it ended in Jan 2022 - I'm showing you how to TRADE the LOWS in UPTRENDS

You can also apply UP angles from a high to create a "channel" or Tunnel [thru the air] as Gann calls it

REMEMBER - "IF" the markets are GEOMETRICAL and you've scaled the angle correctly, you will ALWAYS find a swing low that fits and if it fits, it can be traded!

This next chart shows you various other angles at the same scaling as prior charts to show you hits

If I were reading this, my next comment would be "What about the high of 2022 and the low of 2020?

Well, this chart shows you - the chart is the DJIA - Remember I've shown you predictions and reasons as to why the markets topped in Jan 2022 in prior posts in this thread - I highly doubt many others in the Industry have published anything like this.

Note the 1 x 1.5 angle - this is my own division of Gann's angle - If you think about what is shown on the chart, you could of nailed EXACTLY the TIME and the PRICE of the March 2020 LOW due to the 1 x 4, 1 x 1.5 angles and the 38.2% level and remember I'm pretty sure in a post near the start I've shown the chart of predicating the Feb'2020 plunge in advance

In the chart below we have various methods CONFIRMING the GEOMETRY in the markets, this would not happen if markets were random!

Remember - markets don't just stop dead in thin air for no reason at all, there's ALWAYS a reason and when people tell you its Impossible to "TIME" the markets, you'll know they haven't got a Scooby or are telling you (like fund managers) that you can't time the markets, its Time IN the markets that pays - Think I've just dispelled that notion

In the chart above the DJIA stopped on the FIB ratio of 38.2% as a % fall, while the SP500 stopped on the 35.4% fall - these are GEOMETRIC ratios of different GEOMETRICAL shapes and shows that they are not on the same path at the same speed or time, this is WHY you often get the DJIA doing something slightly different to that of the other markets - in a previous post I mentioned that in 1987 the SP500 fell 50%, same % fall from 2000 top and in 2009 it stopped dead after a fall of 57.7%, in this chart above there's simply too many coincidences for markets to be "random" far too many

As the years progress I may update these charts for you, but you learn far far more by doing the work by and for yourself -As this is the part of knowledge that most people fail to look at, It's not something I want or plan to broadcast too much, the vast % of people on this planet are GREEDY & obsessed with material shiny expensive items, thinking they make them better people and I don't like greed, I find it horribly offensive and disgusting trait, so I don't plan on posting anything that will show you when the next 2020 low type event is - As you can see the markets totally predictable at key turning points, you just have to work out how its done

 

[THT]

So to date, we've looked at Gann Angles, Geometry, trend and how to identify it and more Importantly trade it, along with using Indicators to trade with and also to identify those times in a market that can help you to Identify potential LOW points, that you can then trade in the months that follow or Invest etc - If used correctly all these methods work

Anyone who has traded the markets KNOWS that something else is happening, because they get caught out, their logical sound rational analysis when applied, gets chewed up and spat out by the market they trade - this can happen severely or mildly - the markets out to get you!

However, SOME people (not me) are simply naturally attuned & in sync with/to the markets, their trades are above average, their wins are above average etc etc, but even if you're like me and out of sync with the markets you can still win

In the post above I alluded to the planets - this is the crux of Gann's Soybean chart and Coffee Santos letter, we can't argue with it, its there in black and white - the only way of knowing if Gann was correct or not is to test these things

The planets all give off a sound frequency as they cycle around the sun, lots of them draw perfectly exact GEOMETRICAL shapes as they cycle round and round the sun and the Earth - google Venus's pentagram dance it has with the Earth - with the planets cycles you can pinpoint exactly TIMES where they are in certain positions of a circle, when you look back in history and see the same patterns - This is NOT as exact or precise or as regular as you will be thinking

You can definitely time the really big turns, but the day to day, week to week stuff is tricky - In my experience - you will have your own belief system of what moves the markets

You might be thinking that this is just Hocus Pocus and I can understand - Back in 2012 I approached this area with the same trepidation and caution, but I kept on seeing too many coincidences to ignore

This post is not to try to "turn" you, its to show you that other things in the markets are operating and if you are not in sync to them, is a valid reason why you're being chopped up left right and centre! I don't even understand most of the swings!

Again this is pure planetary Astronomy - NOT Astrology - we are not placing any meaning on a planetary position just the position or coincidence to see if there's anything in it, but saying that Nostradamus nailed the Queens death to the month and year from 400 years ago!

This is only scratching the surface, its not a comprehensive run down of ASTRO in the markets and what I show is only on the SP500/DJIA - other markets will have differing ASTRO inputs

This is WD Gann's business emblem - It divides the circle (GEOMETRY) with a Triangle and a Square

When you split things harmonically, you start dividing, this applies to music, maths, planetary cycles etc - this is what Gann meant when he said "The Law of Vibration controls the markets"

View attachment Overtone.jpg

Note that lots of times you don't have unity in the cycle start or end (nodal points) until certain points of the cycle and then right at the end of the cycle - the cycle is 1 or 360 degrees, you then break down the cycle (360 degrees) harmonically as shown in the 2 pics above

If this is new to new, just note those number degrees on the Gann Emblem

This next chart shows you the planet pairing of Saturn and Uranus and their combined movements of 15 degrees from the 1987 crash LOW

255 Degrees was Jan 2019 - go look what the SP500 did then

Some hits are good and other not so - this is the trouble with Astro work - but look at the 120 degree (Triangle point) and 50% , opposition 180 degree (Square point)

The markets definitely vibrate to this planetary pairing

The KEY to planets is the STARTING point - this is the hardest part of using them, if you get it wrong, it won't work, if you get it right, you'll find hit after hit - Traditional Astrologers start at a conjunction point between the planets or 0 degrees for single planets and then move things around 15 degrees etc - this does not always work and you will get hit and miss results, to the point you'll declare "It don't work"

In the chart ABOVE we started from the 1987 plunge low and we picked out KEY 120 and 180 degree points of the circle which were also mega major points for the market

I remember the hysteria in the PRESS/MEDIA at the 2002 and 2009 lows - EVERYTHING was going to ZERO!!!!!! Imagine if you sold everything then! If you remember back to the beginning of this thread, I said, we can TIME the big turns, knowledge of the 16-19 yr cycle would have told you that from 2000-2016 we were in BEAR market territory, although this cycle failed to END as it ought to have, 2003 and 2009 lows were known about (other cycles define those points), the cycle above just helped to confirm the timings

Here's the 16-19 year cycle in action from 19000 on the DJIA - as you can see there's a SEQUENCE and I can tell you that there's repeating planetary action that repeats and repeats and repeats causing those up and down sections

Here's Gann's Soybean chart I referred to - here he was tracking Jupiter and Mars as planetary LINES up to the point that they conjunct at 360 degrees

Now if you think this is fanciful thinking and luck, then the chart below should dispel any doubt whatsoever - Lots of hours and hard work and you can teach yourself all this - it's ALL out there in trader-land - the "copy" lines were simply copied from the original and moved around the chart to various highs/lows etc

The observant will notice in a previous post the Feb 2020 time cycle prediction - That prediction was NOT based on the above angle, it was another planet arriving at the same point in time

Makes you think, just how free we really are - Now you know what stops the market dead and then reverses, its hit an active planetary line - other planetary lines exist and are active in the market - remember the news reports what they tell you caused this and that, take Feb 2020 I have 3 differing projections (2 based on TIME and 1 based on PRICE) to call that top - the plunge was happening regardless of events spewed out by news cycles

Its not my Intention to show you how to predict the markets, just know that it can be done and remember WD Gann first talked about this over 100 YEARS ago, as well as others in the early 1900's, so it isn't anything new, its just people can't bring themselves to think or believe that the planets that form our universe, influence humans to the point that they create geometrical points of reversals in time and price which can be visually seen on charts of the financial markets

You do not need to know or understand planets to trade successfully - If you want to time the markets though, you do, you will study and test Hurst cycles, use fib on time and whatnot and you will not be able to nail it consistently, because "something else" is at play

I will over the years show you more of this planetary work, but as this is the holy grail of trading and Investing, I'm not prepared to divulge too much

 

[THT]

So back down to planet Earth - Literally LOL!

I really hope that you can see that the markets are not random - We are all scared of bear markets, its natural, but if you know they are coming, you can really prosper from them - the commodity & forex markets are different to the stock markets - they operate in a RANGE bound system, whereas the stock market GROWS - Refer back to to previous posts regarding CYCLES and notice the sequences within the 16-19 year cycles (Remember to compare apples to apples and not oranges! That is WHY the DOWN sections are similar and the UP sections are similar - DO NOT compare a UP section with a DOWN section, apples & oranges!)

The MAIN thing is to just look for lower highs and lower lows to guide you - these WILL be backed up by the moving averages too AND you HAVE to have the CONFIDENCE in your trading strategy

In the chart below you can see very clearly the times of BULL/BEAR TRENDING (HH's + HL's & LH's + LL's)

Sometimes you get the situation where there is so much energy in the market, that it can't cope and do its normal thing, this forms as a mega near vertical price rally (it should then correct with a down swing correction), but because of the energy in place, price stutters higher, as seen in the box - this is often accompanied by a 2RSI<25% set-up that you can buy or if it doesn't then, you can buy the breakout - because it is nearly always followed by further price rises, as the energy build up simply unfolds itself

This is the same thing happening on a WEEKLY time-frame - Then you can drop down to a daily or hourly chart and get in with lower risk etc

 

[THT]

Here's a UK stock that I've traded for a while - it's just in the most perfect TRENDING pattern - EVERYTHING previously talked about is in that chart

Rather than taking risky trades - What I do is simply search everyday for perfect order trade opportunities on lower time-frames, right across UK stocks, Forex, Commodities and Indexes etc - There's ALWAYS a very good trades per week - when you find a market in such a position, set an alarm for when the 2RSI dips under 25% (on the CLOSE of a bar) and bingo, you have a ultra high probability trade opportunity*

My end of Day routine, consists of trading and looking for multiple methods, so for me I simply flick through each chart in my trading portfolio to find opportunities, otherwise, all I would do, would be to filter charts by those closing <25% on a 2RSI Indicator and above the SMA's

Here's a few trades using this method that I took over the past few weeks INTRADAY trades (I've not highlighted them all):

LONG trades ONLY

This FTSE100 trade didn't work if you were looking for more than 1R, the next chart explains the reason why and this can happen on ANY chart & time-frame

On the higher-frame 1 hour chart, this move was building......

Notice the narrow range bar - these are what you are looking for because your risk = 1R, these narrow ranged bars offer you MULTIPLE R returns

You get the picture I'm sure

Then you can build a trading plan - of course I have only shown you long only trades, there's a short side to the game to, that you can create rules for - I'll let you delve into that side for yourself

*Remember for LONGS we are looking for the SMA's to be in PERFECT rising order which should also have rising higher highs and higher lows on a swing basis = UPTREND, we then simply wait for a pull back in price to the SMA's, along with 2RSI less than 25%, Ideally with a narrow range bar

Play the game CALMLY, PRECISELY & with DISCIPLINE and you will WIN, forget about the money, that will come with getting the trade it right

 

[THT]

Here's some TIMING working out PERFECTLY

I've mentioned cycles and how they REPEAT - Well within those cycles price action RHYMES, it doesn't repeat exactly, but it is VERY HIGHLY CORRELATED

Remember in a previous post I showed you how I predicted the Jan 2022 high off by a few days? Well here's one other cycle I was watching

This is on the DJIA market Index

The 1961 HIGH - I would refer back for 5 minutes to all those posts I have published that show TIMING for late DEC 2021 and just think how all these differing TIMING methods all came TOGETHER (as expected) and turned/reversed the market!

Most traders don't look back 6 weeks let alone 60 YEARS - That's fine by me as it gives me an edge

This is GANN's 60 year cycle(static) - Which is 720 MONTHS, 720 months /2 = 360 months which as you know is 360, 360 degrees of a circle and 720 = 2 CIRCLES etc - just pointing out the GEOMETRICAL NUMBERS, so you can see the "randomness" of the markets

Then notice that the 2 swing lows/bottoms came in bang to the MONTH as per those swing lows 60 years prior, BUT the order was REVERSED - in that the higher swing low to end the 1962 decline came in as the lower low in Oct 2022

You have to use these TIMING cycles as GUIDES, they don't always work, especially when they are stood on their own, but when other methods of TIMING place cycles around those long-term dates, you just HAVE to sit up and watch

Remember in a post above I showed you the DJIA with Gann angles from the 2009 LOW, showing the 2022 high and the 2020 low?

Well BEFORE got to the 2020 LOW, you could have messed about with price per bar for the Gann angles and tallied in with the Gann angle coming down from the 2018 low, that would have then produced the following chart, which would help to pull it ALL together
(This chart is NOT LOG scale, so that you can see the angles correctly)

When people tell you markets are random, you really need to question their knowledge of the markets and take any advice they through at you with a pinch of salt - they simply have not looked at the markets properly in terms of price and time

Now you should be able to see why WD Gann, used angles, geometry and Gann Boxes!

If you go down the Gann route, don't get too caught up in things, it is EASY to venture off down rabbit holes that mess with your time - keep things simple and logical but from a GEOMETRIC point of analysis

This next chart shows the SP500 using the same 720 month 60 year cycle

but the journey of the SP500 is slightly differing to the DJIA, hence why the angles aren't the same

A great trader of current times is Michael Jenkins - he says that the SEEDS of future price highs and lows are found in the price of prior lows/highs - this chart proves it, the hard part is working out the seeds - There's no doubting that the price rise from the 1962 LOW up to the 2022 HIGH ran up at a rate of 6.666 points per MONTH and its spooky that in 2009 price fell to 666.79 points and the 1x 6 angle ran through the 666 price level as well as the 2000 top hitting the 1 x 2 angle too!!

As you can see , there's not a straight forward logic to WHICH highs and lows to pick out, so you need to test lots of varying things - but you can see that the markets are far from being random - Very very few traders will bother to go to the trouble of testing and watching lots of calculations

 

[THT]

Basic method works on any time-frame, any market

This is a UK based ETF (No stamp duty!) - so when you trade these bad boys you only have the trading buy/sell commission, so you keep costs of business to a minimum with these markets

There were a couple of break-evens and losses - not highlighted

 

[THT]

In this thread, I'm exposing you to what MOVES the markets and how they move, before we get into laws of the market..........

There's a gazillion ways to trade - It's Important for you to find your preferred style and create rules for all market possibilities

We've all heard of Fibonacci ratio levels right? (If not, head away and do some research)

There's a thought (and its actually correct) that between market swings, lies levels of support from which the market will bounce "IF" the price retracement is only a correction, The masses have jumped on the band-wagon that Fibonacci levels are the key

This assumption is partially correct - so don't think Fib levels are the ONLY way, because they are not - Take what I show you and research it - If you remember in a previous post I have talked about GEOMETRY and GEOMETRIC ratios

Well depending on what geometrical structure in 3 dimensions (which we cannot see on a 2D chart!) the market is currently working to, the geometrical retracement levels might be that of Fibonacci, the square, the cube, square root of 5 or none of the above and working off something else, such as a Gann angle etc - This is WHY you can't with certainty predict retracement levels - if we KNEW that the market was working off say the SQUARE, then we'd just look at the ratios of the square for reversals, if only it were that easy!

Here's the forex market pairing USDJPY daily chart

We can see that the market ran up a beautiful UPTREND creating a lovely price swing range

You would then run retracement levels up that trend/swing and watch price as it interacted with whatever levels you are watching

This example is a PERFECT example to make the point of the post - It's not always as simple as this and sometimes price stops short of a level or just past it - If you are using Gann Angles etc, then it would be prudent to run those to see if price is working to them rather than the retracement level

Anyway, as you can see the 50% level provided PERFECT support from which you could have traded off - again you would need to set yourself rules as to how you did that

50% levels are related to the SQUARE ratios and not Fib ratios - It just that the 50% level is on average a key support/resistance level (this solely depends on what geometrical structure the market is building though!)

Remember the SP500 Index stopped dead on the 50% level in 1987, was 0.5% over the 50% level in 2002 and many many many many more examples on swings, the latest one was the Oct 2022 reversal point

Remember we had Gann angles up and down from various sources converging on the 50% level shown below - I've just left on a selection to avoid clogging the chart up

Notice that in this Instance the market price was working to the gann angle and NOT the 50% level, hence the tiny overrun of the 50% level - this is not critical in trading, I just wanted to show you why price sometimes stops short or overruns a level

I don't fully believe that we understand all the maths and geometry that markets work from, so there will be times when you sit and think, what geometry is the market working off - Don't try to micro-manage it, lots of past traders with degrees in Mathematics/Engineering, don't trade with precision or geometry, even though they are perfectly suited to do so - Just use the basics to form a logical opinion and WAIT to see if the market confirms that thinking, if it does, trade it

Also you need to place retracement levels on ALL market swings - I've not shown those smaller swings, but lots of them had reversals off key retracement levels

Joe DiNapoli wrote a great book on Fib levels years ago, the principles of his book and the above sync, well worth a read and ownership of the book - I got my copy back at the Las Vegas Traders expo in 2010, missed a trick in not getting it signed!

Now you will note that this flies in the face of the TREND method previously shown in many charts - This along with the Gann Angle examples show you RETRACEMENT style trading methods, which are a little more riskier but they still WORK

The key aspects to grasp are that in big swings of this nature, most of the time price if still bullish price will reverse between 38.2-70.7% levels of which it is perfectly fine for you to create a trading plan around

The 38.2% level is especially strong for continuing trends, 50% is what WD Gann referred to as the "balance point", 61.8% is the geometric MEAN & 70.7% is half of the sq rt 2 141.42 also know as the "sacred cut" in freemasonry

Always be on the look out for turns and reversals around key levels of big swings, they often work out rather nicely

This last chart shows you why you often get those shortfalls and overruns of key retracement levels

PLANETARY action CREATES the box, you ONLY know the perimeters of the box once its drawn and complete - EXTENDING the GEOMETRIC ANGLES out of the box as I've shown in previous posts, often hit Important support/resistance levels in BOTH TIME & PRICE

This explains the reason why price failed to stop on a key retracement level - The extending angle was the 50% (of the box) supporting retracement level!

By now if you've read the entire thread, you should be noticing the geometry, the ordered moves and understanding why the way that your mind thinks is usually at odds with what the markets end up actually doing!

The next stage which is ultra hard is to start working out what the planets are doing and if there's anything that stands out - this is a HUGE time consuming task and area to get involved with, I will leave it to you, to consider

Disclaimer: This thread shows you the discoveries I've made and applied to the markets, they may not work for you, so ensure that you test test and test any new methods to you as you are ultimately responsible for your own trading/Investment results and no liability can be held against THT

 

[THT]

Continuation of the Gann Box method - Remember the "theory" is that the markets are operating on a MATHEMATICAL grid basis, which is Influenced by the planets! So If this is true, then in most situations we should see on our price charts REACTING to these levels that the Gann Box creates

Remember NOT all levels, just a couple and remember that the scaling of your box is CRUCIAL - most charting packages do not scale things properly - even mine goes out of scale as time marches on, so you have to be ultra careful in making sure you have it scaled correctly

Sometimes its perfect and other times its not - below shows a UK stock reacting to extended gann box angles and levels - I call this an extended 50% Gann Box angle as it originates out of the box at the 50% level of the Gann Box size

You can trade price bar reversals and or the 2RSI Indicator - up to you, as we know the 2RSI catches many cycle turns

I'll not show this, but you can just COPY the Gann Box and attach it to the RIGHT side vertical edge of the original Gann Box and it will simply continue the angles

Here's a beautiful trade of the past few weeks

The WEEKLY chart has a perfect bear market decline that we can easily box

We then extend angles out of the box - I've only kept the most probable valid angle to avoid cluttering the chart up to much

As you can see its NOT been touched - we need to observe what price does when it reaches it (If it reaches it) - From this point, it is odds on to hit its head and stall, but you NEVER know that for certain in advance - its just a highly logical observation at this point

Notice recent price action off the twisted double bottom - rally ABOVE the SMA's, pullback with a narrow range bar with weekly 2RSI <25% - Sound a familiar trade set up? It gets even better on the DAILY chart

We then go down to the DAILY chart, run our Retracement levels off the recent low to high (shown PINK dashed lines), because price started to FALL, so we wonder if a retracement level will catch this decline

Price continues to fall and after a few bars invalidates a TREND trade possibility

This is now OUTSIDE of our TREND trade set-up, so we ignore that set-up on the DAILY chart - you could still trade it on the WEEKLY chart, that's perfectly fine

So we now have a couple of choices:

1. 2RSI is <25% - We KNOW some sort of cycle low should happen when the 2RSI goes bullish, as it will do at some point, but
2. This is now a gamble trade option - do we gamble?
3. Run a Gann Box from the prioro decent high to low to see if any angles extend out that might be useable
4. Remember the WEEKLY time-frame chart position in a perfect TREND trade set-up - the expectation is for the weekly trend to be UP at any time

It takes 20 seconds max to place a Gann Box around that swing and start to extend angles out - There's only 1 Gann Angle that is a possibility (shown after the fact)

Take note of the 2RSI it does this when its building up to a bullish move - Its IMPOSSIBLE for the 2RSI to stay <25% for too long - Now from the price bar just above the 50% level I had an alarm at the price bars HIGH and this was moved DOWN to each days high + 1penny

As it happened the extended Gann Angle from the box, was what was forcing price to decline, until it touched the angle and everything balanced

At this point you also have choices:

1. Do you place an order EXACTLY on the angle line to see if you can get filled at what would be the EXACT low price if the extended angle "IS" in play or
2. set an alarm if the line is touched and then think about buying in at some point during the day or
3. Do you wait until the PRIOR days HIGH is exceeded etc

I've found that placing an order right around the angle line often doesn't get filled because when these lines are in play and active, price HAS to touch them, BUT, often its a quick plunge down to the line and reversal, which results in the line being hit, but orders not being able to be filled due to the speed of the movement etc

We are pretty clever and smart in the fact that we have potentially predicted the EXACT time and price of a move - no-one can ever take that away from us, but no-one likes a smarty pants clever clogs, so you don't have be buying exact lows or selling exact highs etc - Who cares about a few points, over time it does add up, but so do the missed trades through crap fills, play it safe

I opted for the prior bars high to be exceeded as it was (JUST) so I bought in that day of the low, as it transpired price the following day exceeded the high nicely too - sometimes it GAPS and you end up having to get a bad fill etc

My stop was under the low of the Jan'24 correction -1penny = 1R

and as you can see price moved many times the R value and also offered up a perfect TREND trade previously discussed

In hindsight - what was happening with price and the Indicator was those outside planetary forces forced price down to that extended gann box angle because that was the plan - Once price and time via the planetary force had BALANCED out (Which was that extending angle level at that precise time) then whoosh off upwards

WD Gann 100+ years ago talks about the Law of Vibration, price and time balancing etc - this is it in action, just as Gann had traded 100+ years ago, it's still happening to this very day BECAUSE the forces that control the markets are still up their in the solar system! Think what you think about Gann, but there is no denying that man was light years ahead of todays best traders, light years.

Now you can take it or leave it as to the cause of market movements, but I'm showing you pretty damn accurate ways to TIME the markets - I know its hard to comprehend that planet(s) are doing this to price, but look at the PRECISION! People belittle Gann and his methods because they've tried and failed to get it, which for those of us that have got it or got some of it, it just shows how bad those people really are at looking at the markets, which isn't an endorsement of them

The retracement price levels WEREN'T accurate, price reversed (on the extended angle) right in between the 50% & 61.8% retracement levels - now you know EXACTLY why this happens at times

Fib traders would be sat scratching their heads in disbelief, some would have bought at the 50% level, others would be waiting to buy at the 61.8% level, which never got touched

Gann had an array of different sized Gann Boxes, because he used scaled them for different markets, he had a 12 x 12 gann square/box for certain markets and other sized squares/boxes for other markets - but his price charts were equally scaled from the graph paper he used - today our computer charts often skew this scaling but if you are looking at the same time and price axis's on your computer then it should scale OK - it will go skew-whiff if you zoom in/out etc or change the time/price period too much

With the software I've shown you above, if I show those lines through all time-frames, when I go to that smaller/larger time-frame the extended angles change position, because I'm looking at a different time and price period on other timeframes if that makes sense

It is a lot of time and work searching for these set-ups, but the pay-off is worth the time and effort

Remember - I don't do YouTube, have a website, offer tuition or sell you courses