think this rally was temporary?

NVP

Well-known member
Jun 21, 2004
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#3
Who knows and who cares ?

As traders just go with the flow and pick up the money....

..in the FT today I read that most of the big trading houses have now called over 80% of their Q1 predictions wrong......everything has reversed on what they thought. :eek::innocent:

So think less and trade what you see ......only the market is 100% correct all the time :smart:

N
 

tomorton

Well-known member
Feb 28, 2002
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Exeter
#4
The same question again in another form.

For pity's sake, nobody knows.
 
Likes: Solas0077
Sep 9, 2015
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#7
That's what they said in '09 :)
True, but we've not had '08 yet.

(Well we did, in '08, but you know what I mean).

'Trade what you see' is one way of dealing with it - the other is to consider the current flow of economic data, all of which is showing the US is becoming quite late-cycle and the Fed does not have the monetary tools to deal with it as it never normalised policy after the GFC. That all strongly suggests more downside particularly when you take quite unforgiving equity valuations into account.
 

dbphoenix

Well-known member
Aug 24, 2003
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#10
True, but we've not had '08 yet.

(Well we did, in '08, but you know what I mean).

'Trade what you see' is one way of dealing with it - the other is to consider the current flow of economic data, all of which is showing the US is becoming quite late-cycle and the Fed does not have the monetary tools to deal with it as it never normalised policy after the GFC. That all strongly suggests more downside particularly when you take quite unforgiving equity valuations into account.
I agree. I've seen nothing climactic about any of this. But the stock market detached itself from earnings long ago, and rallies can last much longer and go much farther than they would otherwise.

Db
 
Jun 15, 2013
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#11
The last time ES was rolling over from a strong uptrend and *equally as weak as we are currently* was 1/23/2008. The fact we have a double bottom is a better pattern match with 3/18/2008 but the day to day rebounds and such as happened in the past don't matter. What's important today is ES is oversold and going to try to rally combined with the fact this is the anti-thesis of the ideal field position for initiating shorts. ...but oversold doesn't mean ES won't continue lower immediately.

It would be foolish to think I will act on anything I've said without my eyes wide open to what ES is doing at the current moment.
 

neil324

Active member
Oct 31, 2008
225
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#12
Trade what you see, not what you think.

Saying that, how long before NIRP, more QE(called something else this time) or helicopter money is used. And what effect will it have on markets.

B*llocks to a barn dance though, volatility is certain, providing day traders plenty of opportunity.