This looks like the end of the bear market...

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Here we go...the worst possible outcome (well at least for most commentators)...0.25 and not 0.50...and the us market didn't tank...is it not something to think about more seriously now?

As I keep saying the US is fully concentrated on Q4, they're trying to work out if a turn round may possibly start at the end of the year, whereas UK only sees Q2 and its profit warnings...

0.25 looks better, as it indicates that the Fed is not panicked about the state of economy, considering they didn't give a clue of possible intrameeting rate cuts, they sound more confident than when they announced the previous one...

Noone here saying a bullish trend has started, but I don't see further leg down either, we've seen the bottom, it's consolidation time..

For trading purposes it doesn't matter which way it goes...but for investing purposes it's stock picking time and this includes techs too in spite of many dogs out there, a good investor should be able to pick the resilient ones...

Thanks for contributing to this thread, for a while I was worried that we gave up discussing such main issues...looks like it's working again, no doubt it will shed light to our trades/investments as it did previously...

Riz
 

madasafish

Well-known member
470 5
I hate to say it

but my forecasts of doom of 25/6

"Can't agree with any of you.
SP500/NAS and DJ formed double or treble tops. FTSE100 at critical support.
Last throw of bulls FOMC cut 0.5%..
Dow may rally to 10900, NAS will not top 2200

Then reality intervenes.. NAS to 1750, Dow 9500 and FTSE100 brelow 5300. "

look as if they are coming true.

My charts say FTSE100 below 5000 - soon.

Look at the FTSE100/250/350 and sector charts.. all turning down viciously. And lokk at the Nikkei 225.. poised to make a new multi-year low soon..As for the US , well economic reality and hope are meeting. Dow sub 9500 soon.

Not that these falls will last for ever. I'll start buying techs to hold (as opposed to trade) when real value exists: Techmark at 1100.


Mike

Mike
 

titus-uk

1
291 5
Techs critically ill.........

Mike, going back to what I said above, the value is not in techs at the moment - I no longer spend my time looking there.

What is concerning me most about the high-tech indices, is that as the Techmark is at record lows, the Nasdaq is still about 20% over its record lows early April. I cannot believe that even if there are no further warnings from UK listed companies (which I do not believe!), that should the Naz fall, the Techmark will rise. And on the basis of making lower lows, you would have to say that the bear trend has not - as I hoped and believed, been broken. My only grace is that apart from a small punt, I did not put any more money where my mouth was!! Thank god for exams.

Anyway back to above. Unless there are some big positive earning surprises in the US (don't hold your breath!), this could be a revisit of some difficult times. With such dissaffection in stocks post-marconi etc, the suffering could get worse - esp if people just ditch them.

Me - well, I am spending the time getting acquainted with AIQ, and looking forward to my holiday in a weeks time. I don't intend to trade before then.

All the best,

Keep looking in the solid growth outside techs,

Mark
 

madasafish

Well-known member
470 5
Hi Titus
Agreed with non techs.. but shorts in techs just now are like 1999 in reverse.. prices falling as quickly as they rose..
Agrre a lot more bad news to come on techs.. and on some old economy as well..

The sports betting arena and oil sectors havbe some good value/growth plays.. Sportech, Edinburgh Oil& Gss, Melrose etc..
Mike
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Nasdaq +103 to 2,075
Dow +237 to 10,478
S&P 500 + 27 to 1208

As one analyst said it's best to play it day by day, but this one is certainly a big step in the right direction...market was desperate for a direction and Microsoft provided it...

Of course as the saying goes, one flower doesn't bring the spring, but it did add to the consolidation period and prevented April lows to be retested...

The question now is whether the rally will sustain, I personally don't think it's the start of a long-term bull market yet, but as I keep saying the worst is over for the US and they are determined to keep it going above april lows till they get clearer signal of positive earnings and it's not all doom and gloom in the US as it is in the UK...

It's still too early to start long term investing in the market, but it's also too risky to play it like the market is set to go all the way down...we may get scrambled to cover short positions...

So one way or another let's not get carried away and keep being more open-minded, otherwise it's easy to get burnt either way...

Riz
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Another positive day in US:

Nasdaq +9 to 2,084.
Dow +60 to 10,539
S&P 500 +7.54 to 1,215

Thus Dow gained 4 percent on the week, Nasdaq 3.9 percent and the S&P 500 gained 2.1 percent...

Impressive on a week that Charles Payne, president of Wall Street Strategies described as: "The key word coming into the week was fear and that fear didn't turn to panic so the key word going out of the week is hope..." Therefore he says, "So far I'm encouraged."

In fact it's still bounces both up and down till the consolidation ends to start a sustained uptrend...this is obvious seeing everybody piling in when the market moves one way or another...still lack of conviction

In the day's economic data, wholesale prices fell in the United States in June while retail sales rose, the government said Friday, indicating inflation pressures are low and consumer spending is surviving in the world's largest economy...

the University of Michigan's initial July report on consumer sentiment came in slightly stronger than expected at 93.7 percent. Expectations by analysts polled by Briefing.com had been for 93.5 percent, up from the previous reading of 92.6. (cnnfn)

Looks like it's neither all doom and gloom as the majority of UK investors/traders started to feel nor all pinky...we've got to be able to cope with bouncy markets or stay on the sidelines till an established trend starts...

Riz
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Nasdaq 2029.12 -55.67
Dow 10472.12 -66.94

After two straight days of gains, US investors getting nervous on this week's earnings rush.. 38 percent of S&P 500 companies will unveil their results...

They're getting nervous both ways, missing out on buying on the dips on the one hand and earnings rush on the other hand, thus turning the market movement into a see-saw action...

Jay Suskind, director of trading at Ryan Beck & Co.
"We're heading south without much fanfare. I don't get the sense that there's lots of momentum behind either upside or downside moves in the market... Everybody is waiting for news, whether it's earnings or economic reports." said Jay Suskind, director of trading at Ryan Beck & Co.

On top of everything else they are going to hear the Fed Chief Alan Greenspan's semi-annual testimony on the state of the U.S. economy before Congress on Wednesday...

Well as I said in the chatroom today, this market is just good to improve skills and nerves so long as you don't hang on to losses :)

Riz
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Nasdaq 2067.32 +38.20
Dow 10606.39 +134.27

Looks like James Awad, money manager at Awad Asset Management was right when saying "It never pays to be too bearish on the American economy for too long..."

Caterpillar's better-than-expected results lifted Dow while eager chip stocks buyers pushed Nasdaq higher...

Apart from profit numbers, on Wednesday, Alan Greenspan testifies about the economy before the House Financial Services Committee...no doubt there will be questions to get clues as to whether the Fed will cut again next month...

"He needs to instill some confidence in the marketplace," said Roy Blumberg, chief equity strategist at Sterne Agee & Leach...

"The bull camp, for example, is unlikely to get indications that substantially more rate cuts lie ahead. On the other hand, Greenspan is unlikely to indicate that the Fed is finished cutting rate cuts. At the end of the day, the markets are likely to walk away with the conclusion that the Fed is nearly done with its rate cuts but that they haven't closed the door for more, if necessary," said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond strategist at Miller, Tabak & Co...

With Intel beating the street it looks like this summer is going to be two steps forward one step back for the US markets, the problem is that we still can't say this for the UK markets...

In the mean time why not try and make use of the bounces keeping in mind that shares don't go up or down in a straight line and that we're not in a sustained uptrend yet...

As for me I'd like to see each day as it comes, keeping an open mind on the market sentiment and momentum and go with it for the time being.

Riz
 
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Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Looks like shorting is not as much fun as it used to be any more...as the Hennessee Hedge Fund Advisory Group says:

"I haven't seen anything like it in the 30 years I've been in the market," says Hennessee's Charles Gradante. "Funds don't know which way the market is going. Some are sitting on 40% cash. We're stuck in a trading range, with repeated rallies and declines. Many stocks have been rallying on the dips, forcing managers to cover their shorts. They're getting whipsawed."

Another sign to consider on deciding whether the bear market has come to an end...

Here is the link for the full article which makes interesting reading regarding big short sellers..

http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/news/pages/sti/2001/07/22/stibusnws03028.html

Riz
 
It will also be interesting to see what effect this has on the profits of IGI and the like.

I suspect that when the consensus is that there is a new bull market the average punter will go back to buying shares in their peps and isas leaving only the ardent trader using sophisticated instruments and spread bets.
 

madasafish

Well-known member
470 5
FTSE100 DOW NAS (C)
26/6 5662 10472 2065
6/7 5479 10252 2004
20/7 5387 10576 2029

FTSE -4.9%
DOW +1.0%
NAS -1.8%

Well hedge Funds in US may have problems shorting but in the UK.. it's a great ride...

I keep with my gloomy predictions.. FTSE below 5000...as for the US? who knows..(I think Abby Cohen's 11,700 for the Dow at year end is as good a guess as any: it could also be 8500 if it's a recession)

Bear tack for me...

Mike
 

madasafish

Well-known member
470 5
24th June

FTSE100 down 85 to 5320.. only 5 points above its March 22nd low.
Techmark down 17.5 at 1503 only just above its 3 year low.

End of bear market?

Does not look like it.
Nikkei 225 below 12,000.. new 5 year lows.

Dow through support at 10293, NAS C below 2000

Now as it becomes clear the contagion is spreading from TMTs , the old economy stocks are being hit.. See Invensys.today.

I'm sorry : this is only about half way (that far?) through a big bear market...

(You know you are at/near the end of a bull run when construction stocks rise to new highs.. they are the last stocks to rise in a bull market -- as they are driven by long term capital expenditure.. which is switched off as companies see growth slowing)



Mike
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
It turned out to be a fight back week for major indices....Dow and Nasdaq resiliently refusing to test year lows formed in March and April with Dow trying to hold 10350-10400 level as strong support and bounce from there, while Nasdaq refusing to give up on 2000 support level...

Ftse in them mean time did test it's year low formed in March only immediately bouncing back off that level...

Dow is mainly expected to score further gains next week, having been able to manage to consolidate on the highs, another test of 10600 seems to be on the cards...as Nasdaq been keen to hold on to 2000 support, it might score further gains from this level up

Well as the analyst said, "If you can't handle volatility or the near-term gyrations, it may be early for a really conservative investor, but those who can handle a little bit of roughness can do extremely well,"

Riz
 
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I also think that the comment re: construction companies is worth looking at more closely.

BVS and BBY are examples from different parts of the construction industry and seem to be coming off their highs.

Even so, this construction companies are playing are slightly different role in this cycle - with the expected opportunites in PFI and outsourcing of what were public services this sector has an added stimulus.
 
Moreon the construction industry

I've just been looking at the FT350 sector indices and noticed UB13 the Construction Sector Index -

it seems to have formed two peaks and instead of dropping through support to form a double top it's bounced off and started going up again - looks like a descending triangle top forming to me...
 

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