Technically Fundamental
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No I posted evidence that I thought backed up my point. That data is from this months ECB (vary different from US) monthly bulletin that was released today.
Sorry for saying you have tunnel vision. Let's not let this descend into mudslinging.
😎
Sorry for saying you have tunnel vision. Let's not let this descend into mudslinging.
😎
Well another rise, to be honest I am really surprised
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8485891.stm
I am looking to buy a house at the moment, and apart from loads more properties coming onto the market, I don't see a rising market, it seems lots of properties are "open to offers" and are staying on the market for a while.
Maybe it's a regional thing, maybe the North west isn't as buoyant as the rest of the UK, or maybe Zambuck was right: 😱
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8485891.stm
I am looking to buy a house at the moment, and apart from loads more properties coming onto the market, I don't see a rising market, it seems lots of properties are "open to offers" and are staying on the market for a while.
Maybe it's a regional thing, maybe the North west isn't as buoyant as the rest of the UK, or maybe Zambuck was right: 😱
The housing market is IMO being propped up by the cash-rich/people with established portfolios e.g people who over the last 10 years were not daft enough to throw their money into a pension fund black hole.
Banks are not lending and unemployment is rising. How are the houses going to sell? Especially when the looming inflation will be corroding take home pay and mortgage interest costs sky-rocket as banks try to earn their money back (from the inevitable levies/taxes) from customers*
North West is worse than other areas I agree. I recently saw brand new luxury apartments boarded up lol.
Maybe zambuck will be right but I just think things are going to get a lot worse for housing over the next year.
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gedward3
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Hi Gfrost,
I work as a mortgage broker and what you have to remember is that 50 to 60% of properties on the market arnt actually for sale. Most people will have a property thats worth say £200k and will always have it on for £250k with some agent in case somebody falls in love with it and is not bothered about the price. This very rarely happens and is a longshot but if your getting paid over the odds and you know you can buy another property you sold £50k cheaper your laughing. This usually only happens in a rising market. Most buy to lets do this as well and thats why your seeing less properties on the market today as this market has been falling for a while. The open to offers are just waitingg to see what offers are around and are probably told to do this by the Estate Agents as it helps them gauge the market as well. Remember people are still unwilling to sell as they believe their properties are still worth what they were 2 years ago and either are unwilling to sell as they dont want to lose their inmaginary profit or because they have negative equity and cant sell.
Ged 🙂
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B
Black Swan
According to the NAEA each of their member agents sold approx. 4 properties each in Nov and Dec 2009 yet inventory, (pictures on their walls) are up. Suggests most vendors are still in denial...and there's going to be a lot of agents get boarded up before the summer's non existent rush...
With rates at historically low levels there's no need for a lot of 'high equity vendors' to sell. However, Skipton's recent revision/decision, raising their rates over the agreed 3% above base rate, will have put the cat amongst the pigeons. If/when base rates rise to 2% and svrs go to 7% the market will begin a further steep fall and rates will have to go up at some stage...
Nationwide's metric is risible quite frankly, you should only pay attention to the Land Reg. figures which, despite lagging by up to 6 months, give a much truer picture of where we're at, sold prices were basically flat throughout the past twelve months.
Folk also have to take on board just how bad the mini crash in house prices was in 2008; we went from 22% positive to 15% negative inside 18 months, historically there is no precedent for such a collapse due in the main to so much credit being taken out of the market as sub prime and buy to let deals vapourised. IMO the descent will happen again and we'll get another 15% fall to take the prices back to an historical trend; approx 3% growth per year over a 25-30 year period.
The mortgage restriction is still here, 65% of mortgage product has disappeared since Oct 08, and the majority of best deals can only be had if you have an impeccable credit rating and a 40% deposit.
Here's an interesting stat/fact (approx. I don't have the exact figures to hand) and gives you an idea why prices are so skewed and where the real pain of what you never really had disappearing in a puff of smoke. Last year (iirc according to Land Reg. figures) only 150 properties sold for over 1milion in London, yet on Rightmove now there are over 1,000 trying to sell their property for £3mill+ and 2,000 trying to get £2mil+, that's beyond denial it's planet delusion...A lot of these sales are commercial developers just treading water until the next collapse in support.
* btw I specialised in creating mortgage leads online, at one point I could sell a lead for 15 quid, tbh it got to the point were I couldnt give 'em away...hardly improved since...
My organisation was being bought by a rather large mortgage Co; big in the N-Castle area...timing is a ******* sometimes eh guys...😱
With rates at historically low levels there's no need for a lot of 'high equity vendors' to sell. However, Skipton's recent revision/decision, raising their rates over the agreed 3% above base rate, will have put the cat amongst the pigeons. If/when base rates rise to 2% and svrs go to 7% the market will begin a further steep fall and rates will have to go up at some stage...
Nationwide's metric is risible quite frankly, you should only pay attention to the Land Reg. figures which, despite lagging by up to 6 months, give a much truer picture of where we're at, sold prices were basically flat throughout the past twelve months.
Folk also have to take on board just how bad the mini crash in house prices was in 2008; we went from 22% positive to 15% negative inside 18 months, historically there is no precedent for such a collapse due in the main to so much credit being taken out of the market as sub prime and buy to let deals vapourised. IMO the descent will happen again and we'll get another 15% fall to take the prices back to an historical trend; approx 3% growth per year over a 25-30 year period.
The mortgage restriction is still here, 65% of mortgage product has disappeared since Oct 08, and the majority of best deals can only be had if you have an impeccable credit rating and a 40% deposit.
Here's an interesting stat/fact (approx. I don't have the exact figures to hand) and gives you an idea why prices are so skewed and where the real pain of what you never really had disappearing in a puff of smoke. Last year (iirc according to Land Reg. figures) only 150 properties sold for over 1milion in London, yet on Rightmove now there are over 1,000 trying to sell their property for £3mill+ and 2,000 trying to get £2mil+, that's beyond denial it's planet delusion...A lot of these sales are commercial developers just treading water until the next collapse in support.
* btw I specialised in creating mortgage leads online, at one point I could sell a lead for 15 quid, tbh it got to the point were I couldnt give 'em away...hardly improved since...
My organisation was being bought by a rather large mortgage Co; big in the N-Castle area...timing is a ******* sometimes eh guys...😱
Atilla
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http://www.independent.co.uk/life-s...p-doubledigit-house-price-growth-1883478.html
In summary - The average UK house price is up by 1.2 per cent in January, the Nationwide Building Society said today, taking the annual rate of inflation to 8.6 per cent. The Land Registry, whose figures are one month behind, yesterday put the annual figure at 2.5 per cent.
I reckon they'll rise 5% or more...
counter_violent
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The real gold is to be found with those who have not moved and are sitting on their 1% over base mortgages.
Unlucky everybody else...trooof.
Unlucky everybody else...trooof.
Atilla
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ehemm - some have 0.5 % above base rate... :cheesy:
err - that's also a life term tracker mortgage by the way.
counter_violent
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Yep.....I imagine there were hefty fee's up front ....but at least the rate going forward is a good one.🙂
Atilla
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Nothing out of the ordinary. I'm not sure if it was £250 or £495 one off fee, no early redemption charges and you can pay off 10% lump sum every year with no penalties. Best mortgage policy ever imo.
What caught my eye originally was the full term tracker mortgage rather than the fixed 2-3 years. At the time my current rate had reverted from a fixed to regular with another bank. So the switch-over was a no brainer.
It was withdrawn pretty much soon after when they were flooded with applications and I'm sure they are regretting their offer. The mortgage delays were in the news. Guess the bank?
gedward3
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I got a .49% below base so havent been paying anything for the last 12 months.
Absolutely fantastic the bank earning sweet fa from me.
Bad news is this finishes in April.....🙁
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Atilla
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Gosh! 😱 Now there is a shocker...
Is that because you are a reseller of credit and in the mortgage industry or is it available to the public. In which case it would be good to get together for a drink again... 👍
gedward3
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No mate none of those. Ms Missus works for Coutts part of the RBS Group
so we usually get a cheaper rate than i can source. The only benefit of
her woreking for a bank that i can see as she and many others on the lowly
ranks had their bonuses cut last year. But you guessed it, the managers and
senior staff were still getting their though a little reduced.
Ged
Atilla
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My sister worked for them for a while. She left for another job getting 25% increase in salary. I got the impression the honour of working for them was in no small part - part of one's salary. :cheesy:
What I find interesting - is the discrepancy between bank base rate and mortgage rates. My second one is at 3.89% fixed for 3 years - until 2011. Considering current base rate, 3.40% interest is on the high side for an industry that is trying to stimulate house sales.
Also trackers these days are +1.5% above base rate.
Do you think these rates will narrow as housing picks up?
gedward3
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THe banks are basically filling their coffers because of whats happened with the
credit crunch. THe banks seem reluctant to lower their rates as if you look at it the rates are quite good compared to 2 or even 5 years ago. The tracker rates are reasonable at around 3% and the fixed are around 4% which is not bad value for money.
Whats changed is that 2 years ago there were so many UK and US lenders competing for business that most mortages were 0.5% above base. AS all the banks merged and there are now only the big 4 and hardly any building societies they know there is no competition so why give cheap mortagages when they dont have to. I understand about stimulating the housing market but that is what the government would like to see. I would reckon the banks are making as much money now as they were 3 to 5 years ago, actually probably even more. As they are now charging 3 to 5% over base yet net even doing a quarter of the mortgage deals.
I agree with the Coutts part about the salary. Ive been nagging my missus to leave and she's been offered jobs for 25% more but the perks are good for having babys as the wife says.
Ged
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If they are still making money off of interest I'll bet you a penny to a pound it's being p1ssed out ^x somewhere else
plus that all over doomed when darling or *insert Tory* stops the shuriken-bond program
and then we'll have our crash 🙂
Atilla
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No not so.
When interest rates begin to rise to stave off inflation it will eat into diverting disposable income away from consumption into mortgages. Then house price purchase may cool off.
However, before that to happen inflation will take a grip and by then the upside to house price increases along with employment will maintain the house purchases.
Some analysts are talking about a housing bubble again. Key word 'again'. More to do with supply and demand and excess money sloshing around in the system.
In general I'm not convinced of any crashes in housing. Perhaps some slow down. However, even this over the 4th Qtr of 2009 did not materialise so I doubt what will cause it to as economies pick up.
Finally, banks are smart along with politicians this being an election year. I reckon rates will be kept competitive at least through out 2010.
2011 - may be a breather but crash - highly unlikely imo.
Atilla
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Ooooohhhhh aaarrrrggghhhh!!!!
House price slide could be start of longer downturn
I like to see house prices in May June of this year before suggesting anything like this.
House price slide could be start of longer downturn
I like to see house prices in May June of this year before suggesting anything like this.
B
Black Swan
Coming to a UK city near you anytime soon...
Detroit homes sell for $1 amid mortgage and car industry crisis. One in five houses left empty as foreclosures mount and property prices drop by 80%
Some might say Jon Brumit overpaid when he stumped up $100 (£65) for a whole house. Drive through Detroit neighbourhoods once clogged with the cars that made the city the envy of America and there are homes to be had for a single dollar.
You find these houses among boarded-up, burnt-out and rotting buildings lining deserted streets, places where the population is shrinking so fast entire blocks are being demolished to make way for urban farms.
"I was living in Chicago and a friend told me that houses in Detroit could be had for $500," said Brumit, a financially strapped artist who thought he had little prospect of owning his own property. "I said if you hear of anything just a little cheaper let me know. Within a week he emails me a photo of a house for $100. I thought that's just crazy. Why not? It's a way to cut our expenses way down and kind of open up a lot of time for creative projects because we're not working to pay the rent."
Houses on sale for a few dollars are something of an urban legend in the US on the back of the mortgage crisis that drove millions of people from their homes. But in Detroit it is no myth.
One in five houses now stand empty in the city that launched the automobile age, forged America's middle-class and blessed the world with Motown.
Detroit has been in decline for decades; its falling population is now well below a million – half of its 1950 peak. But the recent mortgage crisis and the fall of the big car makers into bankruptcy has pushed the town into a realm unique among big cities in America.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/mar/02/detroit-homes-mortgage-foreclosures-80
Detroit homes sell for $1 amid mortgage and car industry crisis. One in five houses left empty as foreclosures mount and property prices drop by 80%
Some might say Jon Brumit overpaid when he stumped up $100 (£65) for a whole house. Drive through Detroit neighbourhoods once clogged with the cars that made the city the envy of America and there are homes to be had for a single dollar.
You find these houses among boarded-up, burnt-out and rotting buildings lining deserted streets, places where the population is shrinking so fast entire blocks are being demolished to make way for urban farms.
"I was living in Chicago and a friend told me that houses in Detroit could be had for $500," said Brumit, a financially strapped artist who thought he had little prospect of owning his own property. "I said if you hear of anything just a little cheaper let me know. Within a week he emails me a photo of a house for $100. I thought that's just crazy. Why not? It's a way to cut our expenses way down and kind of open up a lot of time for creative projects because we're not working to pay the rent."
Houses on sale for a few dollars are something of an urban legend in the US on the back of the mortgage crisis that drove millions of people from their homes. But in Detroit it is no myth.
One in five houses now stand empty in the city that launched the automobile age, forged America's middle-class and blessed the world with Motown.
Detroit has been in decline for decades; its falling population is now well below a million – half of its 1950 peak. But the recent mortgage crisis and the fall of the big car makers into bankruptcy has pushed the town into a realm unique among big cities in America.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/mar/02/detroit-homes-mortgage-foreclosures-80
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