TheBramble
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2nd Major Recap
A quick recap as there has been a lot of discussion and I want to highlight the highlights..arf!
Channels
Doesn't matter whether it's Bull, Bear or Flat - Exit on the Left; Enter on the Right. Most do exactly the opposite of this...and lose.
Very little response to this one so I assume either everyone was doing this anyway or they are now. That’s what it means, surely? LOL
Stops
A mini-series on Stops which nobody appears to have violently disagreed with. Yet.
Losers & Winners (Traders, not Trades)
Losers react, winners anticipate and wait for early confirmation, but the people who make the big money create situations based on what they know about the way the herd behave.
A sleeper perhaps. Or maybe everyone instinctively knows this already. Good.
News
Forget the news, remember the chart. You're not smart enough to know how news will affect price. The chart already knows the news is coming.
Pretty much covered in another thread very recently. And fairly self-evident. The end-of-term paper is going to be a breeze for you lot.
Pullbacks & Retracements
Buy the first pullback from a new high. Sell the first pullback from a new low. There's always a crowd that missed the first boat.
Some reservations aired over this statement and I hope we’ll get to cover those at some point.
Support & Resistance
Buy at support, sell at resistance. Everyone sees the same thing and they're all just waiting to jump in the pool.
Everyone seems OK with this one.
Gaps
Exhaustion gaps get filled. Breakaway and continuation gaps don't. The old traders' wisdom is a lie. Trade in the direction of gap support whenever you can.
And this one too
Instinct
If you have to look, it isn't there. Forget your technical analyses and empirical studies and learn to simply trust your instincts.
No problems with this one.
This bite-size stuff really works!!!
Last Hour of Trading
The trend is your friend in the last hour. As volume cranks up at 3:00pm don't expect anyone to change the channel.
We’re obviously all making the most going into the final hour.
Trading the Open
Avoid the open. They see you coming.
Mr. Charts countered this with a trading technique he profitably employs and this is in trading opening gaps. There’s no denying an experienced trader and/or one who specializes in specific techniques is going to be one of the traders taking money from the mug punters who don’t have any edge on the open. And I’m sure they do so only very reluctantly. But unless you do have an edge on the Open, they will see you coming…
Volume
Not initially posted for thought/discussion, but it came up anyway. Seems there aren’t too many of us that do trade that are willing to ascribe it the pride of place some would have you accord it. Hmmmm….should get interesting…..
Analysis of Performance
Quite a bit of debate and I don’t want to run the risk of misquoting Vrothdar in my attempts to paraphrase of summarise. You’ll need to (shock horror) read the originals, in all their lengthy splendour.
In short, I reckon you’re not just wasting your time in carrying out statistical analyses of your systems, but actually working against your own best interests in doing so. Mr. V has a somewhat different view and is equally delightfully unwilling to let go of it. LOL.
I look forward to explaining in depth (but in very short posts) why I take the position I do, having come from one of the most scientific and empirical school of trading myself.
Risk/Reward
I hinted at the possibility of looking at systems which, contrary to perceived wisdom and advice, offer a superficially bad R:R (more risk than reward), but which have other characteristics to recommend them. I will enjoy explaining in some more detail exactly what I mean by these types of systems, why they are a pretty good thing, and why you wont find them, or at least, recognise them, if you follow a strictly empirical or scientific approach in analysing your trading performance (rather than your physical performance – Ooooooer – big hint).
Back Testing
Look, I didn’t bring it, Mr. V did, but we’re going to REALLY have a blast with this one. Stay tuned. Unless you’ve heard it all before of course, in which case….
A quick recap as there has been a lot of discussion and I want to highlight the highlights..arf!
Channels
Doesn't matter whether it's Bull, Bear or Flat - Exit on the Left; Enter on the Right. Most do exactly the opposite of this...and lose.
Very little response to this one so I assume either everyone was doing this anyway or they are now. That’s what it means, surely? LOL
Stops
A mini-series on Stops which nobody appears to have violently disagreed with. Yet.
Losers & Winners (Traders, not Trades)
Losers react, winners anticipate and wait for early confirmation, but the people who make the big money create situations based on what they know about the way the herd behave.
A sleeper perhaps. Or maybe everyone instinctively knows this already. Good.
News
Forget the news, remember the chart. You're not smart enough to know how news will affect price. The chart already knows the news is coming.
Pretty much covered in another thread very recently. And fairly self-evident. The end-of-term paper is going to be a breeze for you lot.
Pullbacks & Retracements
Buy the first pullback from a new high. Sell the first pullback from a new low. There's always a crowd that missed the first boat.
Some reservations aired over this statement and I hope we’ll get to cover those at some point.
Support & Resistance
Buy at support, sell at resistance. Everyone sees the same thing and they're all just waiting to jump in the pool.
Everyone seems OK with this one.
Gaps
Exhaustion gaps get filled. Breakaway and continuation gaps don't. The old traders' wisdom is a lie. Trade in the direction of gap support whenever you can.
And this one too
Instinct
If you have to look, it isn't there. Forget your technical analyses and empirical studies and learn to simply trust your instincts.
No problems with this one.
This bite-size stuff really works!!!
Last Hour of Trading
The trend is your friend in the last hour. As volume cranks up at 3:00pm don't expect anyone to change the channel.
We’re obviously all making the most going into the final hour.
Trading the Open
Avoid the open. They see you coming.
Mr. Charts countered this with a trading technique he profitably employs and this is in trading opening gaps. There’s no denying an experienced trader and/or one who specializes in specific techniques is going to be one of the traders taking money from the mug punters who don’t have any edge on the open. And I’m sure they do so only very reluctantly. But unless you do have an edge on the Open, they will see you coming…
Volume
Not initially posted for thought/discussion, but it came up anyway. Seems there aren’t too many of us that do trade that are willing to ascribe it the pride of place some would have you accord it. Hmmmm….should get interesting…..
Analysis of Performance
Quite a bit of debate and I don’t want to run the risk of misquoting Vrothdar in my attempts to paraphrase of summarise. You’ll need to (shock horror) read the originals, in all their lengthy splendour.
In short, I reckon you’re not just wasting your time in carrying out statistical analyses of your systems, but actually working against your own best interests in doing so. Mr. V has a somewhat different view and is equally delightfully unwilling to let go of it. LOL.
I look forward to explaining in depth (but in very short posts) why I take the position I do, having come from one of the most scientific and empirical school of trading myself.
Risk/Reward
I hinted at the possibility of looking at systems which, contrary to perceived wisdom and advice, offer a superficially bad R:R (more risk than reward), but which have other characteristics to recommend them. I will enjoy explaining in some more detail exactly what I mean by these types of systems, why they are a pretty good thing, and why you wont find them, or at least, recognise them, if you follow a strictly empirical or scientific approach in analysing your trading performance (rather than your physical performance – Ooooooer – big hint).
Back Testing
Look, I didn’t bring it, Mr. V did, but we’re going to REALLY have a blast with this one. Stay tuned. Unless you’ve heard it all before of course, in which case….
:-0
