TheBramble's Short-Term Spot FX Biases

[TheBramble]

There’s an overriding element of potential pullback from the stronger moving pairs of the last couple of days. That’s not a danger while I’m waiting for entry setups as it just means I wait. The only downside is when in a trade that it may be short-lived or weak

It’s also NFP today (13:30 London) which is often used as an excuse to justify the flatness. While I’ll happily trade to within 5 mins of NFP it’s an early afternoon onto the beach at 13:25 for me.

It’s a (very) long weekend coming up in the UK and although the FX market will be open for business as normal on Sunday night, the London Boys will unlikely show up until Wednesday morning. Which makes Monday/Tuesday all the more likely to be the point where Greece exits the EU, Spain defaults, Romney assassinates Obama and Lord Lucan rides through King Faisal Street on the back of Red Rum.

 

[NVP]

There’s an overriding element of potential pullback from the stronger moving pairs of the last couple of days. That’s not a danger while I’m waiting for entry setups as it just means I wait. The only downside is when in a trade that it may be short-lived or weak

It’s also NFP today (13:30 London) which is often used as an excuse to justify the flatness. While I’ll happily trade to within 5 mins of NFP it’s an early afternoon onto the beach at 13:25 for me.

It’s a (very) long weekend coming up in the UK and although the FX market will be open for business as normal on Sunday night, the London Boys will unlikely show up until Wednesday morning. Which makes Monday/Tuesday all the more likely to be the point where Greece exits the EU, Spain defaults, Romney assassinates Obama and Lord Lucan rides through King Faisal Street on the back of Red Rum.

you mean they hav'nt left the keys yet with the Estate Agent ?

let me ring them
N

 

[TheBramble]

Trades of choice (if any today) likely to be:-

GBPJPY Short
GBPUSD Short

 

[TheBramble]

USD (and Yen) Buys still the picture on my 4 Hr TF

out of interest, what does your currency strength table look like at the moment on the H4 - Strongest to Weakest?

 

[TheBramble]

Got a GBPJPY Short entry but stop is right on the borders of acceptability and London is about to turn on. No thanks. May regret, but that’s fine too.

 

[c6ackp]

Hi Bramble,

When you calculate your currency rankings, do you include only the majors and crosses shown below or do you include any others, like CHF/JPY, etc.?

Also, do you have a level in mind for a possible aussie pullback trade today? I'm looking at 9725 so thinking anywhere in the range 9720-9730 would be ok...

Although, if it doesn't get a move on then it'll be too late to take the trade and I'll wait until the dust settles after NFP.

Thanks in advance,
c6-Steve

Short term (m15) FX Bias

AUDJPY & AUDUSD - Short
EURUAD - a spider on speed – no idea
EURCAD – technically short, but a mess
EURGBP – short term Bull move within a longer term Bear phase. Longs with caution.
EURJPY & EURUSD – Short
GBPCHF &GBPJPY & GBPUSD Short, but with some potential for pull back.
USDCAD & USDCHF Long, but with some potential for pull back.
USDJPY Short

Independent Single Currency Rankings (STRONGEST TO WEAKEST)

JPY
USD
CHF
EUR
NZD
AUD
CAD
GBP

As at 07:06 London

 

[TheBramble]

When you calculate your currency rankings, do you include only the majors and crosses shown below or do you include any others, like CHF/JPY, etc.?

All of them.

Also, do you have a level in mind for a possible aussie pullback trade today? I'm looking at 9725 so thinking anywhere in the range 9720-9730 would be ok...

If it pulled back that far on the m15 I’d be revising what I wanted to do. What TF are you trading?


9700 is about as far as it can pullback before I’m ready reset for a Short. Which is where we are now, but it’s a lower grade trade on my books for today so am unlikely to go in even with a technically valid entry setup.

For a longer TF I’d probably be looking for 9734 or so as possible if it’s still going to be staying Short. 9757 and you’ve got a Class-A consolidation.

But your 9725 on the Daily pivot is as good as any.

 

[NVP]

out of interest, what does your currency strength table look like at the moment on the H4 - Strongest to Weakest?

sorry B...had a couple of calls to make

this is not my own personal trading settings which involve multiple MA's and TF's ....(and mojo )

but based on the indicator and setting I peddle on my thread as an intro to Strengthmeters the order is at this post time

(20ma setting)

Yen (big boss)
USD
NZD
CAD
AUD/CHF/EUR....(close)
GBP....(big dog)

and off a bearish dow futures with a 20sma shown

hence I am waiting for more usd and yen buys on lower TF's to support this move .....and naturally a little more Dow pain wont go amiss....


and is that GBP oversold ? (whatever that means).....well on these settings the GBP got in those dark depths back on 17th May and then you have to go back to February ....so it is a little perilous for hoping on further extended action on this TF anyway


N

 

[TheBramble]

CAD way higher than mine, otherwise pretty much in line. Interesting.

 

[c6ackp]

thanks for that - I use m15 mostly for FX - resistance @ 9700 printed just after my post - I got a fill @ 9692 and it's moving as expected so far, but it's NFP day so anything can happen...

 

[NVP]

CAD way higher than mine, otherwise pretty much in line. Interesting.

i'd be very surprised if they were'nt pretty much aligned

looks like the 15m is lining up with the 4h again

N

 

[TheBramble]

Just got a Short entry signal myself. Stiing out this one, but good luck.

If it breaks down through 9650 you’re possible good for 9628 or even 9600 itself.

 

[c6ackp]

I'll exit aussie short @ 09:45 whatever happens, then re-enter on the next leg higher.

Just got a Short entry signal myself. Stiing out this one, but good luck.

If it breaks down through 9650 you’re possible good for 9628 or even 9600 itself.

 

[TheBramble]

looks like the 15m is lining up with the 4h again

Other way round old chap.

 

[NVP]

Other way round old chap.

is the tail wagging the dog ?

 

[TheBramble]

is the tail wagging the dog ?

Depends who’s the tail and who’s the dog.

 

[TheBramble]

Shorting EURCHF on principle. Stop 2036. Risk 28.

 

[TheBramble]

EURCHF in at 2008.

 

[TheBramble]

Got a GBPJPY Short entry but stop is right on the borders of acceptability and London is about to turn on. No thanks. May regret, but that’s fine too.

I’d rather regret not taking a trade than regret taking a trade. It’s cheaper in the long run.

 

[TheBramble]

I'll exit aussie short @ 09:45 whatever happens, then re-enter on the next leg higher.

Dunno if you went back in, but if you did, just for the record, I’m getting an exit if it hits up through 9658.