TheBramble's Short-Term Spot FX Biases

[TheBramble]

AUDJPY potential Short setting up.

 

[TheBramble]

AUDJPY Stop placement at 76.98.

 

[TheBramble]

Out of action for 60 mins. No AUDJPY at the moment. GBPJPY still running.

 

[TheBramble]

Back just in time to see me hard earned go down the pan.

 

[TheBramble]

GBPJPY & AUDUSD potential Short.

 

[NVP]

Hi Gang

My 4h TF indicator tells me USD has become a sell on the current Bar with CAD and NZD the main buys on this move...Dow seems to be drifting North so that helps a little

early days though and a welcome transition from the USD Buy signals we have been seeing over last couple of days on the higher TF's

I see that Cad and NZD are not impressing (yet?) at lower TF levels so perhaps wait till they kick in there to support the 4h position

N

 

[TheBramble]

Potential shorts and current stop placements (subject to revision prior to any entry).

AUDJPY 77.05
AUDUSD 9767
GBPJPY 122.62
GBPUSD 5544

 

[NVP]

ive got sell USd across the board now....looks like AUD is the buy

 

[Vorbis]

Thanks for the comprehensive response.

I don’t use a lot else other than this trend bias (when there is any), pullbacks for a value entry level, change of momentum and primarily the price action around these points. I don’t use technical indicators other than the SR levels.

This sounds very similar to the methods I am currently employing, I find that getting an accurate read of prevailing sentiment/trend is crucial, entry and exit then become details.

Stops must be sensible and relative to TF.

Makes sense. I usually focus on hourlies and find that a SL of around 30 is usually sufficient to tell me if my entry set-up/sentiment read was valid or dud.

The other thing is that I’m quite happy to take whatever is offered. Often my trades are 1:<1. Occasionally you hit a good streak and make wins several factors of risk higher, but I primarily crank them in around 1:1+. Here’s the thing, I’d rather get 9 out of 10 trades with some form of profit on smaller size than 6 out 10 with larger size. I appreciate this is a personal preference, but trading has to work for you on all levels if you’re going to be consistently profitably over the long run.

I tend to agree, though I don't normally bother to enter if I don't think I can get at least 1:1.
Something not often mentioned is that a higher HR with lower RRR can allow your account to compound more rapidly and psychologically I prefer to keep my DD's to a minimum.

I use all the standard SR levels along with Round Number, the FLA levels and (I admit) a bunch of Fibs (but not on the normal datum points). Where two or more of these potential SRs stack up at roughly the same level, I figure I should pay attention to price action around that level.

Again, very similar to my own methods. I like Darkstars theories of attempting to locate pools of liquidity (primarily SL clusters) to use as targets (see DS order-flow site for details). I prefer to focus on S/R that is obvious on the Daily chart and picked up most of my stuff from SteveW's NBT site (No Brainer Trades - Strategy, Outlook and Ideas for Forex Traders. Forex Trading Blog, Education and News.). A great free resource.
FLA levels?

I am particularly looking for any change in momentum - I read it more as ‘intent’ or ‘commitment’. And as with the entry, if the price starts to ‘react’ to a level for which I have no technical basis for it to do so, I treat it with extreme suspicion. AUDUSD being a case in point right at this moment. I’ve got nothing at 9720. Daily S3 at 9706. So, why is it holding off? I think that’s why ‘intent’ and ‘commitment’ fit the interpretation of price action so well for me.

This is an element of reading PA that I still struggle with. Once I've entered a position I usually leave it to play out unless something dramatic happens such as an unexpected event. Experience has shown me that whenever I interfere with a running trade, it usually turns out to be a bad idea. Hopefully further experience will improve my skill at correctly assessing conditions.

 

[NVP]

4Hr sells on USD have gone back to a more neutral position so sorry nothing from me at present

 

[TheBramble]

I'm on the blocks and ready to run with 4 trades with stops as previously indicated.

 

[Vorbis]

EUR-USD will make a great possible short opportunity if it gets up to around 1.2455/60

 

[TheBramble]

AUDJPY Short at 76.78. Stop 77.05. Risk 27.

 

[TheBramble]

GBPJPY Short at 122.13. Stop 122.62. Risk 49.

 

[TheBramble]

Pulling AUD USD & GBPUSD off my watchlist. First tranche of this afternoon's USD data in less than an hour.

 

[NVP]

my 4h TF is daring me to look at selling USD.......sorry I need a lot more sell USD action on Lower TF's before being enticed .....ZZZZZZZZZZ

 

[TheBramble]

H4 is a different basket of fish to m15, but as I mentioned earlier, USD base pairs are more likely to consolidate AND also be subject to rapid fakes and fades during the data period which runs from NOW to 1600 (London). Not many a traders dream.

 

[NVP]

H4 is a different basket of fish to m15, but as I mentioned earlier, USD base pairs are more likely to consolidate AND also be subject to rapid fakes and fades during the data period which runs from NOW to 1600 (London). Not many a traders dream.

so I am finding today ...........i'll stick to my 15m Charts here in future .

 

[TheBramble]

AUDJPY Stop moved to to 76.77. Risk eliminated.

 

[TheBramble]

GBPJPY Stop moved down to 122.41. Risk reduced to 57%.