TheBramble's Short-Term Spot FX Biases

[TheBramble]

Short term (m15) FX Bias

AUDJPY – Long. Just coming off nice pullback to Daily S1. If it carries on down and doesn’t find support at the Weekly R1 and RN at 78. I’ll revise my position to unclear.
AUDUSD –Long. Similar to its cousin above. Coming off Daily S1. Daily S2 and RN in the region of 9800 to provide deeper support if it drops further or all bets are off.
EURUAD – Short (but not just yet). Tough call. Almost a mirror image of the two above (nice to get that correlation back). Longer term is in a Bear phase, but it’s made a significant upward retracement. It has ‘almost’ tested yesterday’s high. The ‘almost’ suggests the underlying Bear may be about to reassert itself which would fit nicely with the Longs on the AUDs.

EURCAD – not a clue. Sort of downish to really quite unpleasantly unclear.
EURGBP - ditto
EURJPY – Long. Nice retrace in progress, coming off a bunch of Support at 99.40. If it drops further I will review my bias.
EURUSD – Long. Currently retracing and didn’t pay much attention to the Daily S1. Currently at 2525 and if it continues to drop and doesn’t find a floor at 2490 it’ll be a little deeper than comfort will allow from which to launch a Long at which point I will review.
GBPCHF - no idea. Probably long but no tradable clarity.
GBPJPY – Long. Pullback in progress. Currently appearing to find support at the RN (and a couple of other super-secret levels in the proximity) at the 123.00 level. Nice number. Shame to spoil it…
GBPUSD – Long. Has dropped below the 5500 level which is significant at this time in the morning. 5450 and I’ll review my position.
USDCAD – Short. Lovely pullback, but perhaps a little too far for comfort? Broken up through 0300 level. 0354 and I'm looking to change my mind.
USDCHF – Short. Pullback to beyond Daily R1 at 9589, but failed (so far) to penetrate the RN at 9600.
USDJPY – Long. Currently in a pullback and comfortable with it hitting as low as the Weekly R1 at 79.26. Lower than that an it’s back to the drawing-board.

The overriding sense I get from the current mix is one of either (a) nice pullbacks to underlying short-term trend which will set us up for value entries back into the underlying short term or (b) a reversal of the underlying short-term trend. The next couple of hours should clarify the situation. Certainly with 3 hours to the London open there’s plenty of time to take a view.

Independent Single Currency Rankings (STRONGEST TO WEAKEST)

USD
GBP
CAD
JPY
CHF
EUR
NZD
AUD

As at 05:05 London

 

[TheBramble]

Bear in mind the depth of the retrace (or reversal?) currently in progress is reflected in the relative strengths of the individual currencies given above. These will either get shaken out over the next few hours (retrace complete) or they’ll be confirmed (reversal in progress).

I’m not live trading FX today, but I’ll get back just after 08:00 (London) to update bias and strength data.

 

[TheBramble]

AUDJPY – Long. But only just. Testing the very lowest levels that I would consider it to be still a short-term Bull.
AUDUSD –Long. As per earlier bias report. Still finding support. Just.
EURUAD – Short. Bear back in town, but we’re not close to an entry setup just yet.
EURCAD – no change.
EURGBP – no change.
EURJPY – Possible reversal to a Short. Need to see if 99.40 will now act as Resistance.
EURUSD – Possible reversal to a Short. Need to see if it finds Resistance at the RN..
GBPCHF – no change.
GBPJPY - Possible reversal to a Short. Need to see if 123.00 (or even 122.70) will now act as Resistance.
GBPUSD – Possible reversal to a Short.
USDCAD – no change.
USDCHF - Possible reversal to a Long. Need to see if 9600 will now act as Support.
USDJPY – Possible reversal to a Short.

Pretty much all up in the air which does suggest the probabilities favour reversals to the short-trm trnd rather than a pullback. Needs more development. No trades on my screen.

Independent Single Currency Rankings (STRONGEST TO WEAKEST)

USD
JPY
CAD
GBP
AUD
EUR
NZD
CHF

Which is abit of a rearrangement on my earlir take. Indicative also of reversals of short term trends.

As at 08:10 London

 

[TheBramble]

For those that haven't seen my post in the other thread on EURCHF there is a rumour that SNB will be raising the current floor of 1.2 to 1.22. Just a rumour.

 

[NVP]

B ...where are you fellah ?

 

[justtrader]

Bramble.
May I suggest that you run a mt4 account on my fxbook so we can follow you without having to read all these other posts (like this one)
I find your posts very informative and interesting . but a fxbook accout will be easier to follow.

best Wishes
Keith

 

[forker]

Maybe he could hire one of those women that walk around the boxing ring with a sign stating his trades. The whole T2W would subscribe

 

[NVP]

Bramble.
May I suggest that you run a mt4 account on my fxbook so we can follow you without having to read all these other posts (like this one)
I find your posts very informative and interesting . but a fxbook accout will be easier to follow.

best Wishes
Keith

great idea..........i'm sure B will want to oblidge and join the Elite traders there when he returns........he may not be in their class though ....

N

 

[gg53]

Trading pure strength meters (in my world) is a completely dynamic experience and actual pair prices are irrelevant .........its a totally uncomfortable process and you need to continually disassociate yourself from the mainstream Trading rules and systems that most people use

horses for courses everyone ....horses for courses....

Hey B ...can I call my 4hr TF signals on here or would you prefer me to open a new Thread....I will limit the posts to only a few a day tops when I can....

N

Currency Strength Meters are valid and excellent tool, provided:
1. Use only MTF Strength Neter (M15, H1, H4) for short term entry.
2. Use WEIGHTED MTF Strength Meter (each currency has different weight in the average outcome - not just a simple division by 7).
3. Strength Meters alone is not good enough - they should take into account the RATE of CHANGE, i.e. how fast the currencies are "departing" from one another.

Using this - and you can trade without looking at any chart - just the indicator !

Gadi

 

[Just4Fun]

Maybe he could hire one of those women that walk around the boxing ring with a sign stating his trades. The whole T2W would subscribe

:cheesy: Better to be looked over than overlooked:clap:

 

[Just4Fun]

Gone quiet, hasn't he, The Bramble ?
Disappointing for those of us hoping to learn something...