The Trading Journey of Lurker

[jacinto]

I've removed some of the blanks in your post.
So let me put things in perspective:

YM: win ratio of 59%. Leaving out commissions you made (35 x 9.8) - (24 x 16.54) = -53.96 points. Is

of which, if winners are let run to a profit target (say a 2 to 1 risk reward ratio) profit then we get a profitable trader

 

[firewalker99]

Hi Lurker

I've just been over your latest charts....the picture that hits me is the shape of the exhaustion moves...we had some fun a few months back talking about bananas and monkeys....and banana shapes for me is where trading is at...notice price speed up into intraday blow off / exhaustions and anticipate an exit when you see the speed....also simple volume spikes might confirm increased activity......exits firstly on exhaustions....then wait for your entry criteria......i e master One aspect before attempting lets say Stop & Reverse....at all times keep strategy and charts as simple as possible

cv

Shame I missed the monkey-talk
Talking about exiting on capitulation/euphoria, some posts (especially Connie Brown's) from the When to Sell thread might be interesting too...
(http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=22661)

 

[firewalker99]

of which, if winners are let run to a profit target (say a 2 to 1 risk reward ratio) profit then we get a profitable trader

Q.E.D.

 

[jacinto]

Q.E.D.

hi FW,

what does QED mean ? no english speaker solo castellano

j

 

[firewalker99]

hi FW,

what does QED mean ? no english speaker solo castellano

j

and I figured you knew some Latin
quod erat demonstrandum
"what needed to be proven"

You know, the thing you needed to write at the bottom of your maths proof

PS: buenos noches (y buena suerte mañana)

 

[jacinto]

and I figured you knew some Latin
quod erat demonstrandum
"what needed to be proven"

You know, the thing you needed to write at the bottom of your maths proof

well, my latin teacher was more of a preacher and thought you meant
Que Estes con Dios,

and me not being christian,didnt learn much in his class :cheesy:

j

edit: tambien a ti, buenas noches

 

[jacinto]

and besides, you do know what Charles 1 of Spain said?

Italian with embassadors
French with women
German with soldiers
English with the horses :cheesy: (no offense, as i am sure no english people around are reading this )
and Spanish only with God

so, being a Spanish speaker, why learn latin :cheesy:

 

[Atilla]

and I figured you knew some Latin
quod erat demonstrandum
"what needed to be proven"

You know, the thing you needed to write at the bottom of your maths proof

PS: buenos noches (y buena suerte mañana)

I thought it meant subject proven.

 

[jacinto]

I thought it meant subject proven.

which is what he meant.

err,

queda demostrado
is the spanish equivalent,

which means

it is proven
edit
means
it is demonstrated

 

[lurkerlurker]

I've removed some of the blanks in your post.
So let me put things in perspective:

YM: win ratio of 59%. Leaving out commissions you made (35 x 9.8) - (24 x 16.54) = -53.96 points. So you would've only lost 54 points in 14 days? I think that's already better than you're doing now. Obviousy, losing points isn't the purpose, but I'm pretty sure that with rigid stop & target rules you can do a lot better. I would suggest starting to find a decent (close and tight) stop and skipping the trades that are too far away for a safe entry.

Commissions are already factored into the spread, and therefore all pips are net.

I'm aware my trading is getting worse, which is destroying my confidence. I've read your comment about stops, and will respond in detail at a more civilised time.

 

[black bear]

looks ok to me for starters,

 

[lurkerlurker]

YM Paper Trading, 14 June 2007

Trade One

Short 13690. Cover at 13660. + 30.

Trade Two

Long 13650. Cover at 13670. +20 Target based on small resistance, could have set a better target since double bottom had called the low. Perhaps 80 or 90 would have been more sensible.

Trade Three

Short 13690. Cover at 13695. -10 (2 contracts) Panic exit. Initial target 70, price went down to 72 before the close. Stop would have gone breakeven at +10, and position would have been settled Market on Close.

Results
Trades: 3
Wins: 2
Win %: 66%
Average Win: 25
Average Loss: 10
Net: +40
Discipline breaches: 2

Discipline breaches

1. Setting a stop at a bad level on trade 3 (1 tick above highs)
2. Moving said bad stop 5 points away from the market during a trade when I realised the stop was in a stupid place
3. Panicking an exit on the third trade

 

[etherington]

qed

... doesn't it mean 'Quite easily done'!

 

[jacinto]

hi lurker

yesterday was an excellent improvement on your end. well done.

it doesent matter it was paper, because it is helping to isolate the issues. knowing one day is not enough data to draw conclusions,

a) i think you are showing if our method is or isnt profitable. which appears to be,

b) appears the issue is not the method but the psyche of the trader behind the method.

yes, i know you know b) is the issue, but it is cool to see that now you know what to work on before you go live again.

and in my opinion, the best thing you can have before going to war is to know who your enemy is, know the weaknesses and strenghts.

very happy to see you are leaping a large step forward this way.

all the best

jacinto

 

[nine]

Good analysis of the problems,

What would you do next time to change each of the problems? Can you figure out a way to rehearse those changes so that you're set to behave differently next week?

Trade One

Short 13690. Cover at 13660. + 30.

Trade Two

Long 13650. Cover at 13670. +20 Target based on small resistance, could have set a better target since double bottom had called the low. Perhaps 80 or 90 would have been more sensible.

Trade Three

Short 13690. Cover at 13695. -10 (2 contracts) Panic exit. Initial target 70, price went down to 72 before the close. Stop would have gone breakeven at +10, and position would have been settled Market on Close.

Results
Trades: 3
Wins: 2
Win %: 66%
Average Win: 25
Average Loss: 10
Net: +40
Discipline breaches: 2

Discipline breaches

1. Setting a stop at a bad level on trade 3 (1 tick above highs)
2. Moving said bad stop 5 points away from the market during a trade when I realised the stop was in a stupid place
3. Panicking an exit on the third trade

 

[lurkerlurker]

Thanks for the comments. Regarding rehearsing the changes, I can't really think of a way to do this other than to stick to my rules when papertrading. I'm glad to have identified the problem, and so a solution shouldn't be too far off!

 

[nine]

I had difficulty with rehearsing a couple of areas I was stuck on so I used a text2speech engine to create MP3's that give me a key point, then a minute break, then the next key point and so on. By giving them a break of a minute between each one they let me think about them a little and aren't overly distracting if I'm in a trade and forget to switch it off.

I run this during my trading sessions (not the whole time, it would drive me mad) and have found this brings my attention back to areas that I forget about in the heat of the trade. It also makes the waiting time productive and means I don't feel guilty about not rehearsing before the session.

Stuff like:

I plan my trades and then I trade the plan. {{Pause=60}}
Then I accept that I don't know what will happen with this trade and execute the system as well as possible.{{Pause=60}}
I feel great about my execution whether or not the trade is profitable.
{{Pause=90}}


Remember to place your target as soon as you enter.
{{Pause=60}}
Close the 21 tick chart
{{Pause=60}}

 

[lurkerlurker]

In the spirit of this, here is a script I have just written to do that:

#!/bin/bash
#Script to talk at you while trading
#Requires festival
which festival 2>/dev/null
if [ $? -ne "0" ]; then
echo "Please install festival"
exit 1
else
echo "script starting, Ctrl-C to stop the loop"
while(:); do
sleep 1m
echo "I plan my trades and then I trade the plan." | festival --tts -
sleep 1m
echo "I feel great about my execution whether or not the trade is profitable." | festival --tts -
done
fi
exit 0

This will work in the bash shell (Linux) with Festival TTS.

I had difficulty with rehearsing a couple of areas I was stuck on so I used a text2speech engine to create MP3's that give me a key point, then a minute break, then the next key point and so on. By giving them a break of a minute between each one they let me think about them a little and aren't overly distracting if I'm in a trade and forget to switch it off.

I run this during my trading sessions (not the whole time, it would drive me mad) and have found this brings my attention back to areas that I forget about in the heat of the trade. It also makes the waiting time productive and means I don't feel guilty about not rehearsing before the session.

Stuff like:

I plan my trades and then I trade the plan. {{Pause=60}}
Then I accept that I don't know what will happen with this trade and execute the system as well as possible.{{Pause=60}}
I feel great about my execution whether or not the trade is profitable.
{{Pause=90}}


Remember to place your target as soon as you enter.
{{Pause=60}}
Close the 21 tick chart
{{Pause=60}}

 

[pootanga]

LL

what trading system software are you using

PT

 

[lurkerlurker]

LL

what trading system software are you using

PT

Evening Pootanga.

I am currently spreadbetting with CMC Markets and TradIndex, so use their platforms to a limited extent.

For my futures charts, I use NinjaTrader (free edition) with a feed from OpenTick. This provides real time and historical data for all the US exchanges, and the ECNs. NinjaTrader is an excellent charting and strategy simulation platform. The free edition has all this functionality, and the paid edition can be used to route orders to brokers also.

For historical equity data, I use AIOTrade for Linux (it is written in java, so should work on Windows), and a Yahoo feed for basic daily OHLCV data.

Hope this helps - my chart layout and links to the software are in my signature. Welcome to T2W.