The Trading Journey of Lurker

[lurkerlurker]

Hi all

I am very new to trading, and newer to these boards. I have posted frequently over in the Dow 2007 thread, but as my trading development keeps coming up over there, I don't wish to take this thread off topic. I have found that the questions and feedback I receive from T2W members creates an expectation of accountability, and has allowed me to become a more sober trader, avoiding some bad trades.

The idea of this thread is to note my trades, and my observations about my own trading behaviour. I would hope that other members here would be so kind as to share feedback, observations, suggestions, advice, and comments where appropriate.

I am trading a small account via spreadbetting. I am aware of the differences of opinion regarding the efficacy of spreadbetting, however for the moment the tax advantages and small stake sizes make it worthwhile. Should I ever go fully "professional", I would look into trading the actual futures, with all the attendant advantages. I have an IT background, but am currently between jobs and looking to trade full time. I am not setting myself unrealistic targets, like making enough money trading to support myself, because I believe that creates additional pressure while trading. I would like to make enough to justify time spent in front of the quote screen, but otherwise I recognise this is a learning experience, and I really have no right to expect anything better than breakeven at this stage.

What I would like to do here is to post all live trades, and my reasoning for entering and exiting them, along with an end of day review. I would imagine that this will attract some small amount of commentary from those who are wiser, and this is a large motivation for keeping a public journal. I do not expect to find many people who have the time to assist me with learning what I should be able to learn independently, and I am not looking for handholding, holy grails, or anything else sometimes associated with lazyness on the part of new traders. Some feedback and guidance where possible would be nice.

To start off, since I won't be trading again until Wednesday 16th, I am going to list what I believe are the main issues with my trading, and then I intend to follow up with short term goals to improve this.

Trading Issues​

• Poor money management
• Trading against the trend
• Over reliance on discretion for entries and exits
• Failure to confirm trends and setups on longer timeframes
• Poor use of stop loss orders (too close, or too far away) - placing them for the wrong reasons
• Overtrading

Short Term Goals​

1. Identify the trend, and trade with the trend
2. Confirm setups with multiple timeframes (5min, 30min, and daily for intra-day trading)
3. Keep a full record (on T2W and handwritten) or trades taken, pips won/lost, reasons for entering and exiting, and thoughts
4. Keep small stakes for the time being, until consistent profits can be achieved
5. Avoidance of "gamble entries" and high risk trades

I will be trading index futures, mostly the Dow and FTSE. I am avoiding ForEx for the time being, and will only enter equities if I see a good setup. I intend to day trade without overnight positions at the moment, although in the future I would look to EOD / swing trading to catch bigger parts of moves.

Feedback appreciated.

Thanks for reading.

~LL

 

[barjon]

good move, lurker

a couple of starting points:

1. how are you going to identify the trend - maybe need a tight definition?
2. similarly, is your set-up precisely defined to the extent that if you posted it (not asking you to) would all readers do exactly the same thing as regards spotting it, trading it, entering and exiting in the same places?

just a couple of thoughts.

good trading

jon

 

[fibonelli]

Hi LL

Firstly, I think you will learn a lot by posting your trades and more importantly the reasons for and how you feel about each trade on a public forum.

I'm also very new to trading (but haven't yet started risking £££) so I understand the stage of your journey. My input is:

1. Do you have a written down trading plan which includes clearly defined i) setup, ii) how you will identify the setup, iii) entry, iv) money management and v) exit rules?
The identification of the setup is very important. Barjon has given you very good advice.
2. Have you backtested your trading strategy?
3. My understanding is that your stops need to be where your reason for entering the trade no longer applies and also considering intra day volatility.
4. Why FTSE100 and DJ30? Personally, I find the movement too erratic.
5. Have you demo traded? If yes, how successful were you?
6. Have you entered in the T2W FX competition? I'm using it to forward test my own strategy (see my blog entry no. 11).

Good luck

Fibonelli

 

[lurkerlurker]

good move, lurker

a couple of starting points:

1. how are you going to identify the trend - maybe need a tight definition?
2. similarly, is your set-up precisely defined to the extent that if you posted it (not asking you to) would all readers do exactly the same thing as regards spotting it, trading it, entering and exiting in the same places?

just a couple of thoughts.

good trading

jon

Hi barjon

Thanks for your contribution. I hope the following answers your questions.

Establishing the Trend​

I intend to look at weekly, daily, and 4 hour candles of the instruments I wish to trade. DMI will be used to establish if the market is trading or trending. ADX > 25 indicates a trend. Furthermore, a 100 period exponential moving average is overlaid on the daily and 4 hour charts. Trendlines are used to determine general direction and S/R levels. This should be okay to establish a) if there is a trend and b) whether the trend is bullish or bearish.

On your second point, this seems to regard almost system trading. I can't trade mechanically - I can used fixed signals (pivot points, S/R, volume, MACD) to determine whether I should take a trade or not, however the point at which I enter and exit a trade (and even if I trade at all) are discretionary. To answer your question, I don't have written rules specific enough to let somebody else replicate the trades I would take.

Is it okay to have such a discretionary system, or should I tighten up my rules? I don't want to over-rely on indicators and signals. Let me know what you think.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Hi LL

Firstly, I think you will learn a lot by posting your trades and more importantly the reasons for and how you feel about each trade on a public forum.

I'm also very new to trading (but haven't yet started risking £££) so I understand the stage of your journey. My input is:

1. Do you have a written down trading plan which includes clearly defined i) setup, ii) how you will identify the setup, iii) entry, iv) money management and v) exit rules?
The identification of the setup is very important. Barjon has given you very good advice.
2. Have you backtested your trading strategy?
3. My understanding is that your stops need to be where your reason for entering the trade no longer applies and also considering intra day volatility.
4. Why FTSE100 and DJ30? Personally, I find the movement too erratic.
5. Have you demo traded? If yes, how successful were you?
6. Have you entered in the T2W FX competition? I'm using it to forward test my own strategy (see my blog entry no. 11).

Good luck

Fibonelli

Fib, thanks for your post - paper trading is probably a good idea, but you need to risk some capital in order to understand how you will perform in a "real world" situation. When you feel ready, get yourself an SB account and force yourself to stick to £1pp stakes until you are profitable. As long as you have some risk capital, that is the best way to learn how your emotions will affect you. Good luck when you go live!

To respond to your points (in reverse order, oddly enough):

6- I've not entered - its a FX competition and I'm trying to stay away from FX trading at the moment. It would be a good place to paper trade before I start on FX again - but I have reasons to avoid FX for now.

5- I had a demo account with TradIndex (20,000). I almost exclusively traded FX with that, and some commodities. I grew the account to over 100,000, mostly on the back of the fall in the GBPJPY the other month. I rode that down from 240.** to 219.** or thereabouts. Because it was only paper trading, I didn't find it too helpful for anything other than learning the platform. I didn't paper trade very long.

4- Interesting point. I started on indices because the spreads were low, the volatility was such that there was profit potential, and I seemed to be quite good at it initially. I've tried equities, and made a few hundred shorting miners and Prudential the other week, but the spreads are large and the movement (in terms of SB points) is quite low. It's probably not for me. As far as the incides go, they are moved quite a bit by the news, are quite trend-friendly, have low spreads, and high liquidity. I think I'll stick with the FTSE from 0930 (I dont trade the open) to 1500, and the Dow from 1500 to 2000 (I don't trade the last hour). What do you trade?

3- Your understanding of stops is spot on to my eyes. I sometimes set stops at the most I am prepared to lose, but mostly set them where the market will tell me I am wrong. (for example just above a recent double top if I am shorting). Still, I sometimes set them too close, and get stopped out - or too far away, and then sit thinking "this trade isn't coming back, but I won't close it until my (too damn far away) stop is hit."

Now your questions regarding this strategy. I don't backtest. I don't really see the point - I think there is a lot of "curve fitting" that can go on in backtesting, leaving the trader to the mercy of a "system" which was successful in the past, but won't be in the future. I do not want to be in the position of taking trades I think are wrong because the statistically correct backtested system told me to. Some say that without backtesting you have no edge. Perhaps they are correct. Backtesting lends itself to mechanical trading, but I exercise too much discretion to even program in a backtest.

My strategy? It isn't too formalised at the moment. That is a bad thing. Discretion is good, but too much leads me to take trades at bad entries (for fear of missing a move) or just through boredom. That is not a good place to be. In an effort to try and be more disciplined and rigorous, I tried Chartman's Dow Jones Day Trading Strategy. I didn't do that one too well - when I did make the entries I was whipsawed, then I noticed there were many profitable swings that the system didn't trade, and eventually I missed out on the big trades that the system saw which I didn't trade. I became pretty despondent. The system is basically:

Wait for price to cross the 100EMA, and wait for a pullback. Trade in the direction of the EMA break, but only if CCI(150) and RSI(14) aren't OB/OS.

That had disastrous results, and many whipsaws. I am about to post some images, and one of them is of the entry signals generated by Chartman's system as I understand it. It catches some goods swings!

I have fairly solid risk control and money management rules (which I don't always stick to, but do for the most part.)

For example, as I have a small account I have a rule that I cannot lose more than 10% per day. If I go over that, I stop trading. No trade is to risk more than 25% of the account. (I have a small account, so I can't reduce this number much). Furthermore, each trade should have a risk / reward of 2.5:1 or higher. I break these rules sometimes, but I am trying hard not to. Perhaps I may improve on this front.

The identification of my setup is lacking to put it politely. Any assistance with this would be appreciated. I usually use trendlines, bollinger bands, MACD, and a few oscillators to determine buy/sell signals. I combine this with chart S/R and candle patterns to make trading decisions.

Let me know what you think!

Cheers

~LL

 

[lurkerlurker]

An example of why I can't use a completely mechanical system

I refer to my previous post, where I mention an early unsucessful attempt to use a trading system. Note that this is in no way a criticism of the system or the system's designer - it is intended as an insight into how I find it difficult to follow fixed systems, and how whipsaws can occur. I have tried to use this system without success.

Here, we are using ChartMan's daily dow system - I hear that chartman is an experienced and well regarded trader, and that many have benefitted from his system The exercise here is to show how I have previously failed to profit from following fixed entry and exit rules based on indicators.

Please see the attached image. The first entry (1), is a pullback confirmation from crossing the EMA. Neither CCI or RSI are extreme, so the entry is greenlighted. The sell is signal is around 13,310. In this example, we will use the CMC spread of 4 on the cash Dow to assess profitablity.

Lets assume a sell at 13,307. Price falls immediately, hits lows around 13,285. No panic exits within 20 points of the EMA are allowed, so one would wait. CCI comes out of oversold, and price breaks 13,300 - major S/R level - signal to exit. System gets out when the bid goes above 13,300. With a 4 point spread, the offer will be 13,305.

Sell at @ 13,307 - Cover @ 13305. +2 pips.

Trade #2

Upside cross of EMA, pullback confirmed. In at 13,316. Neither RSI or CCI extreme, so entry greenlighted. Note this trade could be entered about 5 minutes early, at the same price. A sell signal could be generated to close this trade when CCI is overbough, but apparently one should not exit so early, and there is no divergence. Lets assume we adhere to the rule not to exit until it crosses the EMA the other way +20. We get out when the bid is 13,298 (on the suport break, EMA cross etc).

Buy @ 13,316 - Cover @ 13,298. -18 pips.

Trade #2.1 (not shown).

I am not sure if the system permits entry at around 1645 when price retraces to 13,285 (key S/R), and then drops in a failure candle. If it does, we can add a +50 pip short here.

Trade #2.2 (not shown).

I am not sure if the system permits entry at the gravestone doji at around 1755. There is no EMA crossover, so I don't think so. If it did, add another +25 pips.

Trade #3.

EMA cross, pullback. Buy at 13251 (offer), cover after the double top and the indicators being overbought. The cover is around breakeven after the spread.

Trade #3.1 (not shown).

After the head and shoulders pattern is confirmed, I would have shorted, ut the system does not permit it as there is no pullback after the EMA is broken at 1959. (this trade would have only made +8 pips)

Trade #4

Sell at 13,243. Price dips, retraces to this level, and then plummets. Exit would be when CCI becomes oversold, and there is a bullish engulfing. Cover at 12,220 - + 24 pips.

Total for the day: +8 pips after 4 trades. I must be doing something wrong or not following the system, but after Fibonelli's questions I wanted to see if I could take a chart for a day and apply entry and exit signals to it. I used ChartMan's system because I had previously attempted it.

Could somebody point out my errors in implementing this system (perhaps another follower of chartman's dow system, or another dow trader, or even chartman himself!).

 

[lurkerlurker]

Some Dow charts

Here are some dow charts.

Chartman's system on a 10 minute chart shows that the EMA crossover entry catches some really good swings.

The other trend images for the Dow show how I have attempted to establish trend with trendlines, ADX, and S/R levels.

 

[barjon]

Hi barjon

................Is it okay to have such a discretionary system, or should I tighten up my rules? I don't want to over-rely on indicators and signals. Let me know what you think...........

LL

Whilst you don't want to become a slave to your indicators and signals, it's advisable imo to have a set of conditions relating to your set-up to inform your trade. Some of those will be first level conditions - ie: if they are not met then no trade - some will be second level and more discretionary.

Even if you're trying to be fully discretionary you still need to isolate the factors that will lead you to exercise your discretion and place a trade. As you test your method - in your case by small trading - you will learn which of those factors is important enough to become an inviolable rule and, at the other end of the scale, those which don't seem to matter and can be discarded.

I trade trend continuation via 3 bar retracement - fairly mechanically - and when I started it years ago I listed a dozen or so associated factors that may be pertinent. As I tested and traded I gradually found out the weight of each factor until, today, I'm left with three that MUST apply before I'll trade and a couple that I'd prefer to see and which just influence position size. It turned out that some things I thought would be crucially important didn't rate at all and vice versa.

Hope this is of some help.

good trading

jon

 

[Lightning McQueen]

Hello lurker

First of all may I wish you well in your quest, your approach is an interesting one and im sure you will find some success with it.

Im also on a similar road to yourself, but I have failed to grasp my own strategy fully and implement it to a successful conclusion. Hey we cant all be clever clogs can we, Im still working to this goal, they say patience is a virtue so take anything I say with a large pinch of salt.

If you implement multiple time frame analysis correctly (which im not sure you are) it should keep the whipsaws at bay and also keep your trades on the right side of the market.

heres a link to maybe help on this.

http://www.daytradingcoach.com/daytrading-free-educationtimeframesmultiple.htm

you have posted a lot of good stuff in a short space of time, the one thing I have picked up on for now, is that I feel that a 100 ema is too big a moving average for daytrading, (a bit big for eod too imo) its ok if you say im going long if the price is above the ema, short if below, a kind of equilibrium level if you like. A shorter ema could be better to trade off and an even shorter one as your trade trigger, implementing this over multiple time frames will be a killer strat

Just trying to add some food for thought, and not wishing to pass on any of my own confusions.

Good luck and trading

Lightning

 

[firewalker99]

Hi all

I am very new to trading, and newer to these boards. I have posted frequently over in the Dow 2007 thread, but as my trading development keeps coming up over there, I don't wish to take this thread off topic. I have found that the questions and feedback I receive from T2W members creates an expectation of accountability, and has allowed me to become a more sober trader, avoiding some bad trades.

The idea of this thread is to note my trades, and my observations about my own trading behaviour. I would hope that other members here would be so kind as to share feedback, observations, suggestions, advice, and comments where appropriate.

Trading Issues​

• Poor money management
• Trading against the trend
• Over reliance on discretion for entries and exits
• Failure to confirm trends and setups on longer timeframes
• Poor use of stop loss orders (too close, or too far away) - placing them for the wrong reasons
• Overtrading

Short Term Goals​

1. Identify the trend, and trade with the trend
2. Confirm setups with multiple timeframes (5min, 30min, and daily for intra-day trading)
3. Keep a full record (on T2W and handwritten) or trades taken, pips won/lost, reasons for entering and exiting, and thoughts
4. Keep small stakes for the time being, until consistent profits can be achieved
5. Avoidance of "gamble entries" and high risk trades

~LL

Great to see you open up your own journal LL! I hope it will be a worthwile experience that helps you improve your trading in the way you want it to.

It's very good of you to stipulate your trading issues and short term goals. However, you might already want to start describing how you are going to attack those issues. For example stating you are an overtrader is easy, fixing the issue is a whole different matter.

Anyway, I see you've already made some insightful posts and barjon asked you some of the questions I was going to so I'm sure you'll be on your way in no time.

Good luck and I'll read up on the journal as it progresses!

 

[lurkerlurker]

LL

...it's advisable imo to have a set of conditions relating to your set-up to inform your trade. Some of those will be first level conditions - ie: if they are not met then no trade - some will be second level and more discretionary.

Even if you're trying to be fully discretionary you still need to isolate the factors that will lead you to exercise your discretion and place a trade. As you test your method - in your case by small trading - you will learn which of those factors is important enough to become an inviolable rule and, at the other end of the scale, those which don't seem to matter and can be discarded.

Good point well made. In time, hopefully I will have a more balanced idea of how much weight to give certain chart patterns, indicators, fundamentals, news events etc.

So far, my only two first level conditions are:

• the trade must be with the trend
• the trade must have good risk/reward (even if I need to set more ambitious limit orders and wait for better prices before entry)

Without these in place, the trade will not take place. Hopefully I can refine this to include more details about what sort of price levels to buy and sell at.

Thanks for the input.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Hello lurker

First of all may I wish you well in your quest, your approach is an interesting one and im sure you will find some success with it.

Thank you for your kind words. I am most humbled by the encouragement and advice I have been offered.

If you implement multiple time frame analysis correctly (which im not sure you are) it should keep the whipsaws at bay and also keep your trades on the right side of the market.

heres a link to maybe help on this.

http://www.daytradingcoach.com/daytrading-free-educationtimeframesmultiple.htm

On the point of multiple time frame analysis; this seems to be drummed into us in all decent trading books and articles. I think your comments on moving averages are accurate. I have applied the strategy for trend suggested in your article to the DJIA, which is my main instrument at this time. I'm not curve fitting here as the rules are very general, but how does the attached look for identifying buying opportunities.

Daily Dow candle chart, RSI, CCI, MACD. EMA and trendline is up, so look to buy. Get a good entry on pullbacks to the EMA. Only enter when the MACD histogram is positive. That would have netted 800 pips or so with minimal drawdowns recently. What do you think? This may be a better way to control my entries...

At the moment, I'd look to a buy around support at 13270 ish.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Specific solutions to specific problems!

Great to see you open up your own journal LL! I hope it will be a worthwile experience that helps you improve your trading in the way you want it to.

The contributions I have received have already made it a worthwhile experience. I hope I can learn a lot more through this endeavour.

It's very good of you to stipulate your trading issues and short term goals. However, you might already want to start describing how you are going to attack those issues. For example stating you are an overtrader is easy, fixing the issue is a whole different matter.

I'll address those points now.

Overtrading - limit to three trades per day, looking to trade for at least an hour at a time unless an exit is necessary, sit through some minor pullbacks but use a trailing stop to lock in profits and not let a profit become a loss. If three successful trades in a row, continue trading. If losing, limit to three trades per day.

Money Management - 10% loss limit per day, 20% risk per trade. Do not enter unless with good risk / reward. Small stake sizing until breakeven, slightly larger stake sizes until consistently profitable over a few weeks, then normal stakes. (all in line with the growth of the account)

Trading against the trend - I've covered that one with my new entry methods and charts to identify pullbacks in the intermediate trend.

Over reliance on discretion for entries and exits - My progress on using more rigid rules (such as barjon's suggestion that I "screen" a trade with certain criteria before taking it) is being documented here.

Poor use of stop loss orders (too close, or too far away) - placing them for the wrong reasons - we've agreed here that stops are to be set where the market will prove the trade wrong. This will be adhered to without question (I hope!), and if the risk is too high with the stop in the right place, I will either wait until the market moves towards a more favourable entry or scrap the trade entirely.

Hopefully the above is a more proactive approach to addressing my shortcomings. I have the rest of my life to become as close to a perfect trader as it is possible to be, through reading, learning, and experiencing the markets for myself. But I need to stay in the game long enough to learn. I've no intention of blowing my account anytime soon.

Good luck and I'll read up on the journal as it progresses!

Glad to hear that. I hope any small insights I share here can help other traders in addition to this project assisting with my own development.

Good luck with the Dow this week! My new method (see chart above, ema chat, etc) is looking for an entry around a pullback to the 10 day EMA and a test of support around 13,220. (MACD will have to be positive, and RSI and CCI within normal ranges - I expect I can wait until Wednesday for a good trade.)

Thanks for the input.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Accepting Risk

I am still reading Mark Douglas heavily. I've just started on Trading in the Zone. Interesting point on pages 9/10. The difference between accepting that you are taking a risk, and fully accept and embrace the risk.

Douglas continues:

"In other words, the risks inherent in trading do not cause
the best traders to lose their discipline, focus, or sense of confidence.
" (pp. 9)

For each trade when we place a stop loss (I know there are some who won't, but that doesn't apply to me), we know (with reasonable adjustments for slippage, and ignoring huge events- earthquakes, terrorism, assassinations etc) the maximum risk involved in this leveraged bet. What does it mean to accept the risk?

Lets say I am bullish on the Dow, and buy near local support around the 10 day EMA. I set a stop loss 7 tics below the local support. I take the trade after the price has pulled back to the EMA / support and continued north. I buy £2 at 10 tics above the support. My stoploss is -17. Taking 3 points for slippage, that is a total risk of 20 tics. The potential reward may be resistance later on, retesting of new highs, something more than 40 tics away (to meet my risk/reward rules).

"If you are unable to trade without the slightest bit of emotional discomfort (specifically, fear), then you have not learned to accept the risks inherent in trading." (Douglas, pp 9/10)

I have calculated the risk - £40. What does it mean to fully accept this risk? Be able to not care about losing it? To watch the market approach my stop, break the conditions of entry, and not exit early because I can "afford" to be stopped out? What does this mean exactly?

Every time I trade, must I expect to lose the stop loss amount? Come to think of it, without being able to answer this definitively, I have no business trading a live account.

My take is that I must totally accept this risk by considering the possibility of losing the money and not having a significant emotional response to the possibility of the loss. This is easier when in overall profit and "trading with the house's money".

So, when I sold £4pp in the Dow last Monday with the minimum stop loss I could set of 30 (without much of a proper reason for the placement of the stop or the entry itself), I wasn't prepared to lose £120 that day. I should have reduced my stake size, but didn't. Then, when I "knew" it was really going to plummet, I decided to sell £5pp to catch a big swing down. After all, the Dow is "overvalued", "too high", and "needs to come down". I mistook a small retracement in a strong uptrend (blow off phase?) for "Oh God! I'm going to miss this! Better sell. Oh, that looks like a good price". When I took that trade, I wasn't prepared to lose another £150. But I somehow managed to lose that £270 that day, despite it being almost 5 times my daily "you've lost, take the rest of the day off" point.

To me, fully accepting this risk, as Douglas discusses, means having the risk of the trade within your rules (10% of equity under my rules, though I still feel this is too high). Furthermore, you do not expose your account to more than your daily loss limit either. At this time, 10% was around £80. Loss limit was to be £100 per day / £80 per trade. I didn't stick to my own rules.

Now, if I am to take the first £2pp example, I need to be prepared to accept the possibility of a loss of £40 in return for a higher possibility of gains.

Am I thinking correctly yet?

 

[counter_violent]

Posted to help clarify the state of this market presently.

Additionally this is not to be taken as a sell signal...before it is anything else...it is an EXIT longs signal....the point is, as was demonstrated last week...the market can signal a break of the parabolic rise...but why does this mean it is a SELL....in my book it does'nt.

c v

 

[lurkerlurker]

Posted to help clarify the state of this market presently.

Additionally this is not to be taken as a sell signal...before it is anything else...it is an EXIT longs signal....the point is, as was demonstrated last week...the market can signal a break of the parabolic rise...but why does this mean it is a SELL....in my book it does'nt.

c v

Thanks. Were you trying to reply to my other post on the Dow thread? It relates more to the current trend in the market than the post you actually replied to.

In summary, the market is still trending up? That's good, because my earlier independent analysis earlier with trendlines and charts also supports this, so I should be confident in my longs. However, I've noticed the MACD lines almost touching on the daily chart, so I will be more cautious.

Cheers

~LL

 

[Paul71]

LurkerLurker.

You are the risk, your ability is the risk, your risk comes in the form of the expectancy of your method. You can personally add more risk to this risk by oversizing, trading out of the realms of your tried and tested method etc.

Risk needs to be viewed at every level and area of your trading, reducing these risks and damage limitation is the flip side to reaping the profits. Successful trading ultimately lies in a persons expectancy and solid proven reasoning for each and every trade.

Sorry for sounding like i'm telling you off, i'm not, just thought it may be of use.

 

[counter_violent]

Thanks. Were you trying to reply to my other post on the Dow thread? It relates more to the current trend in the market than the post you actually replied to.

No, here is fine....more accessable for anyone wanting to follow progress

In summary, the market is still trending up? That's good, because my earlier independent analysis earlier with trendlines and charts also supports this, so I should be confident in my longs. However, I've noticed the MACD lines almost touching on the daily chart, so I will be more cautious.

Reply on dow thread covers indicators and their limited value...price drives indicators !

My best advice is to make a big deal out of the study of Exhaustions...also covered on Dow thread....V's

Cheers

~LL

c v

 

[lurkerlurker]

LurkerLurker.

You are the risk, your ability is the risk, your risk comes in the form of the expectancy of your method. You can personally add more risk to this risk by oversizing, trading out of the realms of your tried and tested method etc.

Risk needs to be viewed at every level and area of your trading, reducing these risks and damage limitation is the flip side to reaping the profits. Successful trading ultimately lies in a persons expectancy and solid proven reasoning for each and every trade.

I couldn't explain that comment if asked, but when I read it it seems clear. I think I understand.

Sorry for sounding like i'm telling you off, i'm not, just thought it may be of use.

That isn't how I interpreted it at all. I prefer frank, direct comments. I do feel it is of use, and will admit to having wondered on a few occasions if I was being politely told off - this wasn't one of them!

 

[lurkerlurker]

c v - I've read the little that is mentioned about exhaustions on the dow thread. Google isn't much help, and the forum search returns no results. Where is a good starting point to learn about these? Are they the same as extended V tops/ bottoms? If you could link / attach any information, I would appreciate it!

Thanks

~LL