The Prometheus System

[Iapetus]

The Prometheus system results for 2014 are quite impressive. As of today there have been 91 trades in total with 89 completed and 2 currently open. The most impressive point being there has been no losses so far making it worth monitoring further. It is based purely on the end of day closing price and from closing price to closing price has delivered 7981 points since January 2014. It is updated regularly showing both open & closed positions and can be found at the link below.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...n0Il5lgiQI/pubhtml?gid=1753817987&single=true

 

[Dong Mu]

sound like good system, but you open Pandora box. watch out for eagle,

 

[LongTermInvester]

I went to the link expecting some information about the system but you just have a list of trades. No methodology, no audit trail.

I don't get it.

 

[Iapetus]

There is not much to get at the moment except looking at ways of maximising these good signals that are coming out of this system, hence the list of trades. The system will take an age to explain and currently takes a lot of manual work but I’m working on an Excel system that will automatically collect the daily closing prices, compute the algorithm and make an automatic conclusion.

This system has only been in operation since the beginning of 2014 with companies chosen by me. The amount of companies chosen is limited due to the manual work required to compute the algorithm. The results so far have been very good without a losing trade. I’m sure the losing trade will come along sooner or later. Let’s see if the two currently open short positions on Easy Jet or Ebay become the first losing trade or if they join the growing list of winning trades.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...n0Il5lgiQI/pubhtml?gid=1753817987&single=true

 

[ABTrading]

If you have an algorithm for your buy/sell signals you should be able to implement it with macros in a spreadsheet and run it against the entire market in an hour or two. As far as a stop is concerned in the type of system where you add on, your stop should be a percentage of your account value, typically 2% to 3%. I would assume you would buy/sell in increments of 50 or 100 shares at at time. You don't need to wait for a loss to implement risk management in such a system.

 

[Iapetus]

The algorithm is made up of a step by step procedure of calculations using Excel. These step by step calculations are not all linked into one Excel formula. That may be possible but probably beyond my patience. As manual input is required I limit the amount of companies to scan using the usual criteria. Once the company is in the system I tend to leave it there.

I like the stop you suggested and will look at it. I’m currently looking at the previous 120 day low closing price in a long trade as the stop with the view of not taking the trade if the closing price of the long trade signal is lower than the previous 120 day low closing price. Your right about not waiting for a loss to implement risk management. Guess I cannot give up searching for the Holy Grail!

I would not buy the shares but spread bet them instead. So after choosing a company I make sure it is available in the spread betting platform I use.

The entry signal could be improved further. I could wait until the current method of adding on daily is showing a significant loss and jump in at that better price. For example, my system indicated a sell signal for Ebay on the 3rd November at a closing price of 5270. The current add on method is showing 10 sell at 5374 which is currently 61 points away from today’s closing price of 5434 making for a 610 point deficit today (based on a rounded up closing price to 0 decimal point) Maybe a better entering point would be after a certain deficit value had built up after a signal is given. In this case entering the trade on 14th November at 10 sell at 5434. Let’s see how it pans out.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...n0Il5lgiQI/pubhtml?gid=1753817987&single=true

 

[counter_violent]

The algorithm is made up of a step by step procedure of calculations using Excel. These step by step calculations are not all linked into one Excel formula. That may be possible but probably beyond my patience. As manual input is required I limit the amount of companies to scan using the usual criteria. Once the company is in the system I tend to leave it there.

I like the stop you suggested and will look at it. I’m currently looking at the previous 120 day low closing price in a long trade as the stop with the view of not taking the trade if the closing price of the long trade signal is lower than the previous 120 day low closing price. Your right about not waiting for a loss to implement risk management. Guess I cannot give up searching for the Holy Grail!

I would not buy the shares but spread bet them instead. So after choosing a company I make sure it is available in the spread betting platform I use.

The entry signal could be improved further. I could wait until the current method of adding on daily is showing a significant loss and jump in at that better price. For example, my system indicated a sell signal for Ebay on the 3rd November at a closing price of 5270. The current add on method is showing 10 sell at 5374 which is currently 61 points away from today’s closing price of 5434 making for a 610 point deficit today (based on a rounded up closing price to 0 decimal point) Maybe a better entering point would be after a certain deficit value had built up after a signal is given. In this case entering the trade on 14th November at 10 sell at 5434. Let’s see how it pans out.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...n0Il5lgiQI/pubhtml?gid=1753817987&single=true

You need a cumulative drawdown column otherwise what you are presenting is pretty meaningless.

 

[Iapetus]

Your right, and i do have that on my main spreadsheet but it is not presented here. What is presented here is the fact that this method has had no losers so far throughout 2014 regardless of cumulative drawdown. In fact there were two more winning trades closed out today on EZJ & STAF for a combined profit of 205 points. The open EBAY trade looks like its heading in the wrong direction so maybe that will give this system it's first loss. The cumulative drawdon on this trade to date is 1109 and look's like it will be higher by close of play today. I'm looking to develop the system further for 2015 with a strict stop loss system but would like a losing trade to test it out. The entry points are being looked at too as previously stated, it may be better to enter after a signal is given and developed a high cumulative drawdown before entering. Ebay being a good example.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...n0Il5lgiQI/pubhtml?gid=1753817987&single=true

 

[Iapetus]

Shortened link to regularly updated spreadsheet.

http://bit.do/T2Wprometheus

 

[counter_violent]

Your right, and i do have that on my main spreadsheet but it is not presented here. What is presented here is the fact that this method has had no losers so far throughout 2014 regardless of cumulative drawdown. In fact there were two more winning trades closed out today on EZJ & STAF for a combined profit of 205 points. The open EBAY trade looks like its heading in the wrong direction so maybe that will give this system it's first loss. The cumulative drawdon on this trade to date is 1109 and look's like it will be higher by close of play today. I'm looking to develop the system further for 2015 with a strict stop loss system but would like a losing trade to test it out. The entry points are being looked at too as previously stated, it may be better to enter after a signal is given and developed a high cumulative drawdown before entering. Ebay being a good example.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...n0Il5lgiQI/pubhtml?gid=1753817987&single=true

Lapetus, look, I'm not having a go, far from it, I have developed and run strategies just like this and have posted updates here on t2w. The cumulative drawdown versus banked winners is exactly where this type of strategy is at. I have no issue at all with not using stops, but you do need a mechanism that kicks in to limit damage should a cumulative position go too far askew. My suggestion would be an opposing hedge perhaps on the index. A fat tail will kill this strategy, that is guaranteed....so that is the area that needs work.

Well done so far.

 

[bredin]

You need a cumulative drawdown column otherwise what you are presenting is pretty meaningless.

Spike drawdown is the killer (ie worst position of the bar) since its the thing most likely to trigger a stop.

B.

edit: sry, didnt read your next post before posting myself

 

[Iapetus]

Lapetus, look, I'm not having a go, far from it, I have developed and run strategies just like this and have posted updates here on t2w. The cumulative drawdown versus banked winners is exactly where this type of strategy is at. I have no issue at all with not using stops, but you do need a mechanism that kicks in to limit damage should a cumulative position go too far askew. My suggestion would be an opposing hedge perhaps on the index. A fat tail will kill this strategy, that is guaranteed....so that is the area that needs work.

Well done so far.

I will never trade without a stop loss in place and am looking to ally a good stop loss method with this entry point system and also to improve the entry point. The system has had a good 2014 flying without a safety net producing 94 winners and no losers.................so far! Surely it cannot go on. One thing is for sure, a safety net is required.

 

[Iapetus]

Ashmore (ASHM) closed out today. Now 95 winners.

http://bit.do/T2Wprometheus