T2W Bot

Staff member
1,459 60
In my early days, I was always fascinated by the gap in the financial system between those who know what they are doing and profit, and those who don’t and lose money. It was really fascinating, big strong institutions made so much money and were correct most of the time. At the same time, retail traders and investors were equally wrong most of the time and lost tons of money. If I could just figure out how and why an institution made the trading decisions they did, maybe one day I could reap the same rewards was my thinking. I also spent time figuring out why retail traders performed so poorly, that was actually very easy to do. Without going into too much detail, I also realized that most retail traders and investors learned to speculate in markets the exact same way and commit the same simple mistakes over and over that inevitably led to their consistent losses which in turn became an institution’s profits. One thing I have paid close attention to in my many years of writing...
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msiroky

Newbie
1 0
Very good points. I have also noticed that trending stocks tend to have low volatility and low volume. Of course, there may be a blip upward in both volatility and volume at the start of an up trend or downtrend, but that quiets down once the trend is established. It then reappears once the trend is about to end or reverse. Bottom line: low volatility can be associated with steady changes in price, which must be due to imbalance in urgency on one side or ther other of the transaction.
 

gocheriH

Newbie
1 0
Sam Seiden is a very suddessful trader, lecturer and a mentor. I had the pleasure of attending couple of his lectures , few of his live webinars which convinced me to spend some hard earned money to attend his school - OTA.
 

trade seeker

Newbie
1 0
Trade Seeker

Usually you will have a smaller price range than normal(squat) and volume is below average (30 day). Then price will move quickly away from that price area, and Mr. Seiden has done a very good job of describing this price action.
 

Porkpie

Active member
151 10
Sam Seiden is a very suddessful trader, lecturer and a mentor. I had the pleasure of attending couple of his lectures , few of his live webinars which convinced me to spend some hard earned money to attend his school - OTA.
No need to attend his school. Everything you need is at fxstreet. Simply superb!
 

tomorton

Legendary member
7,617 1,042
It seems to me that Sam's chart makes both his point but also the one he's trying to disprove, or have I got this wrong?

Sam suggests we attach more significance to the ealier consolidation zone on the chart than conventional TA says we should. And, having learned that lesson, we would then not be caught long when price returns to that level at the right edge of the chart and fails to break through.

Avoiding a bad trade is a good skill to have. But look at the second, much more extended consolidation zone. Not unexpectedly, price drops out through this to resume the downtrend and offers a nice shorting opportunity. Conventional TA says wait for price to break down and go short, and there's no error in doing this here.

Price rallies back into the second zone and again gets trapped in a range there. What I see here is that the second stay in this zone has only emphasised its significance and this should make me distrust any upside break-out. It also m,akes a double top, failing to make a higher high. In fact, price does make an upside break-out but only for 1 bar, then immediately collapses and makes a downside break-out: the subsequent shooting star suggests there's more selling to come. But my point is you wouldn't have been going long anyway, it was just too likely to be a false move, whether or not there was an atypical consolidation zone overhead or not.
 

Porkpie

Active member
151 10
It seems to me that Sam's chart makes both his point but also the one he's trying to disprove, or have I got this wrong?

Sam suggests we attach more significance to the ealier consolidation zone on the chart than conventional TA says we should. And, having learned that lesson, we would then not be caught long when price returns to that level at the right edge of the chart and fails to break through.

Avoiding a bad trade is a good skill to have. But look at the second, much more extended consolidation zone. Not unexpectedly, price drops out through this to resume the downtrend and offers a nice shorting opportunity. Conventional TA says wait for price to break down and go short, and there's no error in doing this here.

Price rallies back into the second zone and again gets trapped in a range there. What I see here is that the second stay in this zone has only emphasised its significance and this should make me distrust any upside break-out. It also m,akes a double top, failing to make a higher high. In fact, price does make an upside break-out but only for 1 bar, then immediately collapses and makes a downside break-out: the subsequent shooting star suggests there's more selling to come. But my point is you wouldn't have been going long anyway, it was just too likely to be a false move, whether or not there was an atypical consolidation zone overhead or not.
The extended zone ie second one down, has many bars so most likely most orders (supply) got filled, hence the higher supply level more likely to work out due to less activity. Unlike trad SR, levels become weaker with more activity as orders get absorbed. Whilst Sam doesn't emphasise htf in this case , putting it into a higher time frame context will add momentum to any valid levels on smaller tf's near htf extremes. Its not an exact science but works out pretty well most days.
 

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