T2W Bot

Staff member
1,459 60
Consistent low risk profits from trading and investing is a challenge many millions of people take on, yet only a select few are ever able to attain. The objective and mechanical rules for consistent low risk profits are very simple, yet the layers of illusion keep most from ever seeing what is real in trading and investing.
The two main forms of analysis in trading and investing are technical and fundamental analysis, and they are very real. However, thinking that mastering these two forms of “conventional” analysis will lead to consistent low risk trading and investing profits is an illusion second to none. The more an individual attempts to master these types of analysis, the more they may be layering complex, subjective illusions on top of each other. This is a recipe for consistent failure.
What many beginning traders don’t realize is that they are walking east and west near the equator, trying to reach the North Pole. No matter how hard they work, the goal they desire is not...
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NWEMTF

Newbie
3 0
Boddhisatva

Well thought out and well written. Any more tips on how to gauge supply/deman relationship?
 

meanreversion

Senior member
3,398 535
There are two or three examples of this method at work - is this meant to be statistically significant? By nature, this style of trading is contrarian, i.e. picking bottoms and tops, and would have done fairly poorly in commodities for the last couple of years and really poorly in bonds for the last twenty years.

The author himself is labouring under the illusion that he has cracked trading. Along the way he confidently informs us that anyone else who doesn't trade this way is lining his pocket. Implicitly, this article suggests that trend following/breakout trading are of no value - hey, they're an "illusion".

There is definitely some merit in the points raised here, but to present his style of trading as the only solution is naive, and dare I say it, a little puerile.

Good luck picking tops in commodities fella!
 
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Bint_Crusher

Established member
728 33
Having met Sam on several occasions, what he says is the most sensible. You don't need all the weird and wonderful indicators, just price action.
 

Masquerade

Senior member
2,543 283
I found the article lacked clarity. The section on news was very confused and there was no logic behind decisions to buy other than some mysterious "demand level". Without some form of fundamental analysis to know that BP is in fact a quality company with a future and is just a distressed stock then it's a good reason to buy when it's being sold heavily. However, without fundamental analysis and knowledge of a company/what's going on then this could easily turn into a Northen Rock scenario.

if we're not using FA or TA then how the hell are we going to decide to take a trade? In conclusion: it's a confused article and I doubt this guy puts his money down with that muddled logic used in the article (& if he does, he won't hang on to it for too long.)
 

Bint_Crusher

Established member
728 33
I found the article lacked clarity. The section on news was very confused and there was no logic behind decisions to buy other than some mysterious "demand level". Without some form of fundamental analysis to know that BP is in fact a quality company with a future and is just a distressed stock then it's a good reason to buy when it's being sold heavily. However, without fundamental analysis and knowledge of a company/what's going on then this could easily turn into a Northen Rock scenario.

if we're not using FA or TA then how the hell are we going to decide to take a trade? In conclusion: it's a confused article and I doubt this guy puts his money down with that muddled logic used in the article (& if he does, he won't hang on to it for too long.)
The point Sam is trying to make is that the stock BP was in a downward trend. We had already identified that the downward trend would only continue as far as it took to hit a price support area(demand) when the news was released about the oil spill, the anticipation was that this would accellerate the sell off until the price was so low that willing buyers are going to bring their money back to the floor. I remember 13 years ago buying up a large stock of British beef for my freezer because of the CJD scare and the export ban. The price had dropped to a wholesale level as opposed to retail. Consider who was selling their BP shares just before the price fell into a demand area, was that a pro? Don't think so. Fundamentals are always considered but never traded.
For the record Sam does put his money down and does not lose it down to good risk management. If he does ever advise the trading floor that this is his opinion of a potential trade I know of at least 300 pros that take the same one. Big markets the US, not like UK.
:smart::smart::smart::smart::smart:
 

Masquerade

Senior member
2,543 283
So if we took a look at Northern Rock and identified a downward trend. There was definitely demand for it at price levels. So where do you go from there?
 

TheBramble

Legendary member
8,395 1,170
For the record Sam does put his money down and does not lose it down to good risk management. If he does ever advise the trading floor that this is his opinion of a potential trade I know of at least 300 pros that take the same one. Big markets the US, not like UK.
What a tosseur
 

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