The Difference between Risk & Uncertainty - Poll #1

Which Box Will You Choose

  • Box A - 50 red ball & 50 black balls

    Votes: 7 70.0%
  • Box B - 100 balls - don't know how many of each colour

    Votes: 3 30.0%

  • Total voters
    10
The option 2 box of 100 balls will have 30 green balls - 50 blue balls and 20 black balls - but no red balls ;-)
 
If you actually want a sensible answer from me, both (a) and (b) carry the same risk (50%) however (a) has a known distribution for the outcomes and (b) has an unknown distribution for the outcomes. I suspect people select (a) on the whole because they don't like the ambiguity of (b) even though they are risk wise, the same.

I picked (b) because in my head I BELIEVED I had a greater chance of keeping me' nads even though this is mathematically incorrect.
 
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There are two boxes. Box A has 100 balls of which 50 are black and 50 are red. Box B also has 100 balls with unknown numbers of each of red and black.

You can choose either box and you can pick only one ball. If you pick a red ball, you get to keep your reproductive organs and you get $1,000,000.

Which box do you choose to pick a ball from?

I'll leave this poll up for 24 hours.

I wondered how Islamic State spent their evenings.
 
If it's compulsory, then box A.

Looking at it for the benefit of the box owner, (and testicle accumulator also with $1000000 to spare), he would place 99 black balls in box B......

Not sure why anyone would assume fairness had any part in such a "game"......
 
Interesting that five people apart from the OP and myself have commented, but only two have voted.
 
I have ta count myself out of the vote for obvious reasons. But the voting is probably less important than the comments being posted rationalising the choices being made.
 
since the box could have zero reds (fat tail?) ........i'll take the 50/50....that's better odds than trading for most people

N
 
Can anybody demonstrate that options (a) and (b) don't have the same risk?

If you set up the game and liked deep fried testicles in ketchup and wanted to keep $1,000,000, how many red balls would you put in box B ? :LOL:
 
The balls in the B box are owned by Goldman Sachs - they are special balls

When the balls were put in the box by the adjudicator and watched by Pat - there was 97 black balls and only 3 red balls

Pat feels safe that most will go with the A option - ie 50/50 - and so his money is safe

However Goldman Sachs get their mate to say here's $50k - can I have first pick - and I will go with option B

Pat feels really great - he gets $50k and is sure this guys is going to have to be really lucky to find one red ball - in amongst 97 black ones

What Pat did not realise that the special balls owned by GS convert from black to red within 1 minute of going into a dark closed box

The Punter wins - Pat's been ripped off - and GS want their balls back

A bit like trading FX really
 
Can anybody demonstrate that options (a) and (b) don't have the same risk?
Can't be answered!.....as Box B is unknown.

Choice is between certainty of risk percentage V unknown risk percentage.

So 50/50.....or.....take a chance!
 
Can't be answered!.....as Box B is unknown.

Choice is between certainty of risk percentage V unknown risk percentage.

So 50/50.....or.....take a chance!

I don't think that is right. The risk is 50% ((0+100)/2)/100 for (b) which is the same as (a).

It does have an unknown distribution though.

I think it is 50/50 with a known distribution or 50/50 with an unknown distribution.

If that is the case, what is the difference and why the selection bias to (a) ?
 
Box B can't be 50% as it is unknown.....it can be higher/lower chance but this isn't known in advance.

Furthermore, we're comparing a % fact against unknown %, therefore cannot be answered.

Just because the choice is only between red ball v black ball doesn't mean this 50% applies to the both boxes. What is more important is from which box it comes from.....
 
Box B can't be 50% as it is unknown.....it can be higher/lower chance but this isn't known in advance.

Furthermore, we're comparing a % fact against unknown %, therefore cannot be answered.

Just because the choice is only between red ball v black ball doesn't mean this 50% applies to the both boxes. What is more important is from which box it comes from.....

If box B is filled with only red and black balls on a completely random selection then in the long term box B will be a 50/50 shot so you have no edge in picking one box over the other
 
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The two options are equal

Its a study to show how people often prefer to gamble with a known chance of winning as opposed to not knowing what the chance of winning is ..

So whoever votes for Box A is more risk averse preferring the safer option even though the Box B has the same chance
 
If box B is filled with only red and black balls on a completely random selection then in the long term box B will be a 50/50 shot so you have no edge in picking one box over the other

I guess you only have one chance to choose.....right? so "long term" doesn't apply because this will be an average over time for box B.

Also you cannot define a concrete % for box B, therefore you cannot compare between box A and B together.....because they are different.

To say no edge isn't true....to say there is an edge isn't true either as box B is not known.
 
Only 6 hours left for this poll to run. It's close at the moment, close enough ta warrant a recount. Really interestin responses and one or two surprising ones.

I see ISIL's UK frontman Abu ibn Mr. Charts has been in here with his Shar'ia obsession with removing testicles and painting em. I dunno about the rest of yous, but if the allies started doing videos of us removing captured ISIL militia's balls, I think we get a much quicker resolution to the problem.
 
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