The Difference between Risk & Uncertainty - Poll #1

Which Box Will You Choose

  • Box A - 50 red ball & 50 black balls

    Votes: 7 70.0%
  • Box B - 100 balls - don't know how many of each colour

    Votes: 3 30.0%

  • Total voters
    10

Pat Riley

Established member
794 178
It’ll massively impress me if anyone reads ahead and guesses what the poll #2 setup is going to be. Please don’t post it though as it might spoil the process for others. This is a good format for an afternoon TV show – Punt or no Punt?
 

robster970

Veteren member
4,566 1,390
It’ll massively impress me if anyone reads ahead and guesses what the poll #2 setup is going to be. Please don’t post it though as it might spoil the process for others. This is a good format for an afternoon TV show – Punt or no Punt?

"In an oiled-up, naked wrestling competition run over 3 x 90 second rounds between darktone and robster.........."

Impressed?
 

Pat Riley

Established member
794 178
"In an oiled-up, naked wrestling competition run over 3 x 90 second rounds between darktone and robster.........."

Impressed?

Now I said not to spoil it didn't I?

Back on the naughty step with you.


That's one hell of a fantasy though. Just tried it on. Works for me.
 
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robster970

Veteren member
4,566 1,390
If you actually want a sensible answer from me, both (a) and (b) carry the same risk (50%) however (a) has a known distribution for the outcomes and (b) has an unknown distribution for the outcomes. I suspect people select (a) on the whole because they don't like the ambiguity of (b) even though they are risk wise, the same.

I picked (b) because in my head I BELIEVED I had a greater chance of keeping me' nads even though this is mathematically incorrect.
 
Last edited:

Mr. Charts

Legendary member
7,369 1,194
There are two boxes. Box A has 100 balls of which 50 are black and 50 are red. Box B also has 100 balls with unknown numbers of each of red and black.

You can choose either box and you can pick only one ball. If you pick a red ball, you get to keep your reproductive organs and you get $1,000,000.

Which box do you choose to pick a ball from?

I'll leave this poll up for 24 hours.

I wondered how Islamic State spent their evenings.
 

Mr. Charts

Legendary member
7,369 1,194
If it's compulsory, then box A.

Looking at it for the benefit of the box owner, (and testicle accumulator also with $1000000 to spare), he would place 99 black balls in box B......

Not sure why anyone would assume fairness had any part in such a "game"......
 
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Mr. Charts

Legendary member
7,369 1,194
Interesting that five people apart from the OP and myself have commented, but only two have voted.
 

Pat Riley

Established member
794 178
I have ta count myself out of the vote for obvious reasons. But the voting is probably less important than the comments being posted rationalising the choices being made.
 

NVP

Legendary member
37,707 2,065
since the box could have zero reds (fat tail?) ........i'll take the 50/50....that's better odds than trading for most people

N
 
 
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