The Difference between Risk & Uncertainty - Poll #1

[Pat Riley]

There are two boxes. Box A has 100 balls of which 50 are black and 50 are red. Box B also has 100 balls with unknown numbers of each of red and black.

You can choose either box and you can pick only one ball. If you pick a red ball, you get to keep your reproductive organs and you get $1,000,000.

Which box do you choose to pick a ball from?

I'll leave this poll up for 24 hours.

 

[Forexmospherian]

Either box - it does not matter - but I would prefer the 50 /50 one

You just open the lid with the 50 black and 50 red balls and take a red ball out -;-)

For all I know the other box might have 98 black balls and 2 red ones - or even worse 100 black balls - but like trading - take the lid off and then you have a better chance

Regards


F

 

[darktone]

There are two boxes. Box A has 100 balls of which 50 are black and 50 are red. Box B also has 100 balls with unknown numbers of each of red and black.

You can choose either box and you can pick only one ball. If you pick a red ball, you get to keep your reproductive organs and you get $1,000,000.

Which box do you choose to pick a ball from?

I'll leave this poll up for 24 hours.

So i cant physically see the ball im picking, and choosing to not play isnt an option?

 

[ffsear]

I don't see how this is a difference between risk and uncertainty. Risk is tangible and can be defined.

We can define the odds for the worst case scenario for both boxes A and B

Uncertainty also has a factor to it that can't be mesured

 

[Trader333]

It looks like people don't want to risk voting in Pats' poll or maybe they are uncertain about it.

 

[robster970]

I went for (b)

The probability of there being >50 balls in (b) is the same as the probability of there being <50 balls (i.e. 50%).

However unlike (a) which is fixed at 50% there is a possibility that (b) >50%, so I went for (b) as you are risking your nads for both scenarios

 

[darktone]

I went for (b)

The probability of there being >50 balls in (b) is the same as the probability of there being <50 balls (i.e. 50%).

However unlike (a) which is fixed at 50% there is a possibility that (b) >50%, so I went for (b) as you are risking your nads for both scenarios

Im showing my ignorance here, but I think based on what you just said, my brain is suggesting that the probability is the same for (a) and (b). The risk is same. But i am uncertain!

Personally, If there was a third option of 'kicking Pat in the balls and making off with the dosh', Id have chosen that! :cheesy:

 

[robster970]

I think what I am trying to say badly is:

a = 50%

b >= 50%

Anyway I may be hopelessly wrong

 

[Trader333]

Most people when they enter a trade think they have a 50% chance of it making a profit or loss but in reality it is the same as option 2 in my view.

 

[Pat Riley]

So i cant physically see the ball im picking, and choosing to not play isnt an option?

No you can't look into the box and ya can't choose not to play.

One hand in the box, the other on yer balls.

 

[Pat Riley]

I don't see how this is a difference between risk and uncertainty. Risk is tangible and can be defined.

We can define the odds for the worst case scenario for both boxes A and B

Uncertainty also has a factor to it that can't be mesured

Aha, that's the clever bit that'll be revealed after poll #2.

 

[Pat Riley]

Personally, If there was a third option of 'kicking Pat in balls and making off with the dosh', Id have chosen that! :cheesy:

Me bagman's holding the dosh and he's wearing a balaclava and has a pistol in his hand. Up ta you if you want to try it. But rather than kick me in the balls you might prefer to wager which one is red and which one is black.

 

[darktone]

No you can't look into the box and ya can't choose not to play.

One hand in the box, the other on yer balls.

F**k it then, im balls deep in (a) ooer! In the hope that rob has it hopelessly wrong! And so Pat dont get p!ssed at noone playin

 

[robster970]

F**k it then, im balls deep in (a) ooer! In the hope that rob has it hopelessly wrong! And so Pat dont get p!ssed at noone playin

People are gay about being wrong.....

 

[Pat Riley]

F**k it then, im balls deep in (a) ooer! In the hope that rob has it hopelessly wrong! And so Pat dont get p!ssed at noone playin

Makes no difference to me of nobody chooses to vote or not. These comments are the interesting bit.

 

[darktone]

People are gay about being wrong.....

Nothing wrong in being wrong..... wot u doin for lunch? :whistling

 

[darktone]

Makes no difference to me of nobody chooses to vote or not. These comments are the interesting bit.

Was just for the crack Pat.... As in the lulz kind, not the furry kind.

 

[Pat Riley]

It’ll massively impress me if anyone reads ahead and guesses what the poll #2 setup is going to be. Please don’t post it though as it might spoil the process for others. This is a good format for an afternoon TV show – Punt or no Punt?

 

[robster970]

It’ll massively impress me if anyone reads ahead and guesses what the poll #2 setup is going to be. Please don’t post it though as it might spoil the process for others. This is a good format for an afternoon TV show – Punt or no Punt?

"In an oiled-up, naked wrestling competition run over 3 x 90 second rounds between darktone and robster.........."

Impressed?

 

[Pat Riley]

"In an oiled-up, naked wrestling competition run over 3 x 90 second rounds between darktone and robster.........."

Impressed?

Now I said not to spoil it didn't I?

Back on the naughty step with you.


That's one hell of a fantasy though. Just tried it on. Works for me.