The Difference between Risk & Uncertainty - Poll #1

Which Box Will You Choose

• Box B - 100 balls - don't know how many of each colour

• Total voters
10

Pat Riley

Established member
794 178
There are two boxes. Box A has 100 balls of which 50 are black and 50 are red. Box B also has 100 balls with unknown numbers of each of red and black.

You can choose either box and you can pick only one ball. If you pick a red ball, you get to keep your reproductive organs and you get \$1,000,000.

Which box do you choose to pick a ball from?

I'll leave this poll up for 24 hours.

Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,301
Either box - it does not matter - but I would prefer the 50 /50 one

You just open the lid with the 50 black and 50 red balls and take a red ball out -;-)

For all I know the other box might have 98 black balls and 2 red ones - or even worse 100 black balls - but like trading - take the lid off and then you have a better chance

Regards

F

darktone

Veteren member
4,016 1,084
There are two boxes. Box A has 100 balls of which 50 are black and 50 are red. Box B also has 100 balls with unknown numbers of each of red and black.

You can choose either box and you can pick only one ball. If you pick a red ball, you get to keep your reproductive organs and you get \$1,000,000.

Which box do you choose to pick a ball from?

I'll leave this poll up for 24 hours.
So i cant physically see the ball im picking, and choosing to not play isnt an option?

ffsear

Senior member
2,250 495
I don't see how this is a difference between risk and uncertainty. Risk is tangible and can be defined.

We can define the odds for the worst case scenario for both boxes A and B

Uncertainty also has a factor to it that can't be mesured

Last edited:

Moderator
8,655 981
It looks like people don't want to risk voting in Pats' poll or maybe they are uncertain about it.

Forexmospherian

robster970

Veteren member
4,566 1,390
I went for (b)

The probability of there being >50 balls in (b) is the same as the probability of there being <50 balls (i.e. 50%).

However unlike (a) which is fixed at 50% there is a possibility that (b) >50%, so I went for (b) as you are risking your nads for both scenarios

Last edited:

darktone

Veteren member
4,016 1,084
I went for (b)

The probability of there being >50 balls in (b) is the same as the probability of there being <50 balls (i.e. 50%).

However unlike (a) which is fixed at 50% there is a possibility that (b) >50%, so I went for (b) as you are risking your nads for both scenarios

Im showing my ignorance here, but I think based on what you just said, my brain is suggesting that the probability is the same for (a) and (b). The risk is same. But i am uncertain!

Personally, If there was a third option of 'kicking Pat in the balls and making off with the dosh', Id have chosen that! :cheesy:

Last edited:
Forexmospherian

robster970

Veteren member
4,566 1,390
I think what I am trying to say badly is:

a = 50%

b >= 50%

Anyway I may be hopelessly wrong

Moderator
8,655 981
Most people when they enter a trade think they have a 50% chance of it making a profit or loss but in reality it is the same as option 2 in my view.

Pat Riley

Established member
794 178
So i cant physically see the ball im picking, and choosing to not play isnt an option?
No you can't look into the box and ya can't choose not to play.

One hand in the box, the other on yer balls.

Pat Riley

Established member
794 178
I don't see how this is a difference between risk and uncertainty. Risk is tangible and can be defined.

We can define the odds for the worst case scenario for both boxes A and B

Uncertainty also has a factor to it that can't be mesured
Aha, that's the clever bit that'll be revealed after poll #2.

Pat Riley

Established member
794 178
Personally, If there was a third option of 'kicking Pat in balls and making off with the dosh', Id have chosen that! :cheesy:
Me bagman's holding the dosh and he's wearing a balaclava and has a pistol in his hand. Up ta you if you want to try it. But rather than kick me in the balls you might prefer to wager which one is red and which one is black.

darktone

darktone

Veteren member
4,016 1,084
No you can't look into the box and ya can't choose not to play.

One hand in the box, the other on yer balls.

F**k it then, im balls deep in (a) ooer! In the hope that rob has it hopelessly wrong! And so Pat dont get p!ssed at noone playin

robster970

Veteren member
4,566 1,390
F**k it then, im balls deep in (a) ooer! In the hope that rob has it hopelessly wrong! And so Pat dont get p!ssed at noone playin

People are gay about being wrong.....

darktone

Pat Riley

Established member
794 178
F**k it then, im balls deep in (a) ooer! In the hope that rob has it hopelessly wrong! And so Pat dont get p!ssed at noone playin
Makes no difference to me of nobody chooses to vote or not. These comments are the interesting bit.

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