The Delta Phenomenon by Willes Welder

[rols]

Would it be statistically more significant if from all the sell-offs and all the full moons, not one of them occurred on the same day?

That would be too obvious, and there would be no market on those days would there?

Things do happen around the full/new moon

I know I keep going on about astrologicals but these things floating around in the ether do have an effect I'm sure - more metaphorically perhaps than actually physically

AND never ever doubt the power of metaphor because it's through metaphor that our subconscious minds make maps of the world

Stating the obvious, our calendar and clocks are based on heavenly movements
The Babylonians who first 'invented' the circle made it 360 degrees after observing the planets for example

If you were a subscriber to spaceweather.com (it's free) then you would have got this on the weekend

MOON & MARS: When the sun sets tonight, go outside and look east. The Moon and Mars are having a beautiful close encounter all weekend long. The best night to look is Saturday when the distance between the pair shrinks to less than 2 degrees. Campfire-red Mars so close to the silvery Moon is a sight wonderful to behold.

Visit http://spaceweather.com for sky maps and photos.

 

[firewalker99]

That would be too obvious, and there would be no market on those days would there?

Things do happen around the full/new moon

That might well be the case... but... do things happen around a quarter moon and three quarter moon too? Or might we just have forgotten to relate any "out of the ordinary" events to quarter moon and make the connection to full moon easier? Sounds like a data-selection bias to me...

 

[firewalker99]

Stating the obvious, our calendar and clocks are based on heavenly movements
The Babylonians who first 'invented' the circle made it 360 degrees after observing the planets for example

That makes perfect sense because we, humans, depend a lot on the cycli that occur in nature. Summer, winter, day, night,... Linking our calendar to the earth's revolutions is perfectly logical, linking the stock market is yet another thing imo.

Delta is frequently being described as "near-perfect". But that "perfection" is in large part based on the fact that the approach (reflection, inversion point, etc) is open to interpretation. The same can be said about a lot of other methods or approaches...

 

[firewalker99]

The more different ways you look at any problem or object - what ever it is, the more of it's aspects you will see and understand. Hence, that must inevitably be good.

The more different ways you look at a problem or chart, the more likely you will observe some pattern or gain an understanding.

Fibonacci numbers definately work. No doubt in my mind. Another fascination to investigate.

Yes, it is fascinating... I've tried e and pi as numbers and after looking long enough, I've found remarkable significance in the time price retraces 1/e or 1/pi times. The point being, if you want something to "work" for you, it most likely will. But why does it work then?

Perhaps we just like to find order in the chaos. I marvel sometimes at some patterns that occur in nature (golden section Phi, Fibonacci,...). Is anything truly random?

 

[alexander]

That might well be the case... but... do things happen around a quarter moon and three quarter moon too? Or might we just have forgotten to relate any "out of the ordinary" events to quarter moon and make the connection to full moon easier? Sounds like a data-selection bias to me...

I think you are looking at it from a formal functional relationship point of view. But when it comes to relating astronomical data to events you must factor in other effects like positions of other planets and even the relevance of the situation.

I think that Rols made an important observation about the relative positions of Moon and Mars. that, plus the fact of weak economic factors contributed to the fall on the full moon day. I was expecting that based on what I have read lately but I was not sure enough yet to base trading decisions on it.

I think it deserves a closer look.

Alex

 

[firewalker99]

I think you are looking at it from a formal functional relationship point of view. But when it comes to relating astronomical data to events you must factor in other effects like positions of other planets and even the relevance of the situation.

Note that the last words of your sentence are very important in analyzing these kind of situations: the relevance of the situation. Unless there is any relevance to the situation, people most likely will not look into it, or even ignore any other factors that might lead to people getting the impression there is a causal relationship between the different variables.

I think it deserves a closer look.

I'm very much interested in anybody who's got proof (or claims he has) that there is a consistent relationship between two seemingly unrelated variables.

 

[Atilla]

Note that the last words of your sentence are very important in analyzing these kind of situations: the relevance of the situation. Unless there is any relevance to the situation, people most likely will not look into it, or even ignore any other factors that might lead to people getting the impression there is a causal relationship between the different variables.


I'm very much interested in anybody who's got proof (or claims he has) that there is a consistent relationship between two seemingly unrelated variables.

I think in Sweden somebody carried out study of birth rates with that of stork sightings. There was positive correllation between the two.

What kind of relationship are we looking for here?

Having said that I do believe Delta Phenomenon works and that there is a 'hidden' order in the markets. There is a pattern in the markets in the highs and lows and their repetition and frequency.

I don't use it but was sufficiently curious to find out more about it. It does require good deal of learning and combined with EW theory and Fibonaci it can be very powerful instrument for trading various markets.

Finaly, the lunar cycle is important in the sequence of that order and I don't see anything unusual in this.

The moon moves tides. Human body is 95% water and so why not some cause and effect there which is yet to be discovered. Gravity always existed but not originate upon it's discovery. There are more than likely infinite number of discoveries just waiting for discovery. :whistling

 

[alexander]

I'm very much interested in anybody who's got proof (or claims he has) that there is a consistent relationship between two seemingly unrelated variables.

I am too. But we must differentiate between relationships that depict cause and effect and probabilities. In these situations we are talking about probabilities. Induction cannot lead to or prove cause and effect as the famous philosopher David Hume showed (if I recall correctly from my phil classes).

So I am not looking for a consistent relationship as you do of seemingly unrelated variables but of high probabilities in the occurence of two phenomena. If you look at it this way it has more value. I find it troublesome to equate variables and phenomena. Things are too complicated to be represented by variables.

I suspect that at the end of the day if you have enough data to work with it will be shown that in the long term the probability is 0.50+, a small positive bias to indicate the actions of those who believe these things will happen because someone said will happen that way.

I may be wrong though.

Alex

 

[firewalker99]

Finaly, the lunar cycle is important in the sequence of that order and I don't see anything unusual in this.

The only thing that is unusual about that (at least to me) is the following: desite the fact that studies have shown no clear correlation between the lunar cycle and any other 'events', a majority continues to believe that people act differently during a full moon.

The moon moves tides. Human body is 95% water and so why not some cause and effect there which is yet to be discovered. Gravity always existed but not originate upon it's discovery. There are more than likely infinite number of discoveries just waiting for discovery. :whistling

The moon moves tides. Tides exist because there are two sides from oceans that span over the globe over thousands of kilometers. The moon does not have such an effect on smaller amounts of water like (even the larger) lakes. Strictly speaking, one could argue that there is an effect, but it is so infinitely small that it is neglectable. Anyway, according to scientists, the effect on even smaller bodies of water (like the human body) would be "less than the effect of a mosquito on somebody's shoulder."

I'm sure the belief in a certain 'lunar effect' will remain, just as a great number of people are convinced that homeopathy has a healing effect despite the plain fact that the amount of 'working' substance in such a product is less than a drop of water spread in all the oceans over the world. Unless the concept of water memory can be proven, it's just pseudoscience imo.

Belief does not equate fact or truth.

_______________
"Men become superstitious, not because they have too much imagination, but because they are not aware that they have any." -- George Santayana.

 

[2be]

The only thing that is unusual about that (at least to me) is the following: desite the fact that studies have shown no clear correlation between the lunar cycle and any other 'events', a majority continues to believe that people act differently during a full moon.


The moon moves tides. Tides exist because there are two sides from oceans that span over the globe over thousands of kilometers. The moon does not have such an effect on smaller amounts of water like (even the larger) lakes. Strictly speaking, one could argue that there is an effect, but it is so infinitely small that it is neglectable. Anyway, according to scientists, the effect on even smaller bodies of water (like the human body) would be "less than the effect of a mosquito on somebody's shoulder."

I'm sure the belief in a certain 'lunar effect' will remain, just as a great number of people are convinced that homeopathy has a healing effect despite the plain fact that the amount of 'working' substance in such a product is less than a drop of water spread in all the oceans over the world. Unless the concept of water memory can be proven, it's just pseudoscience imo.

Belief does not equate fact or truth.

_______________
"Men become superstitious, not because they have too much imagination, but because they are not aware that they have any." -- George Santayana.

I agree with Atilla and Bez, Delta together with EW and fibs ratio applied to price and time can provide a real insight and advantage to trading. There is nothing magical about the lunar months cycles, fullmoons, halfmoons and so on. In my application the lunar months provide the same time periods for marking the highs and lows and thats it, nothing less and nothing more, for example; 4 lunar month being delta Intermidiate cycle (ITD).
The H & L points are created by price behaviour, which has a tendency to repeat itself in these exact time periods, depending on which timeframe one looks at. EW put alonside or on the detla grid itself provides me with a very strong sence of direction, which is important in getting into trades, setting SL and profit targets. Fibonacci ratios in relation to price and time are very useful to further pinpoint the more likely scenarios. The gearing between the different delta timeframes can be comparred to the gearing which has been applied to normal chart timeframes with a few rules mentioned in Bez's post. I find MTD and ITD gearing very helpful, and use it to a great advantage in trading using daily, 4hr, 1hr and 15min charts. In this way Delta in not a lagging indicator at all, it assist me to explore the future price action, and together with EW and fibs helps me to map it. It is not a prediction of the exact price performance either, but it nevertheless acts as a powerful filter for the direction which helps me in trading. Using the above require some initial work, but once done the maintenance of the charts is less timeconsuming. I use EOD data for mapping the price action on the ITD and MTD grid with EW and Fibs, but trade from intraday charts, but having a sence of direction. I am very interested whether there are other traders who are applying detla with EW and Fibs into their trading.
Happy trading to all, 2be

 

[firewalker99]

I agree with Atilla and Bez, Delta together with EW and fibs ratio applied to price and time can provide a real insight and advantage to trading. There is nothing magical about the lunar months cycles, fullmoons, halfmoons and so on. In my application the lunar months provide the same time periods for marking the highs and lows and thats it, nothing less and nothing more, for example; 4 lunar month being delta Intermidiate cycle (ITD).
The H & L points are created by price behaviour, which has a tendency to repeat itself in these exact time periods, depending on which timeframe one looks at. EW put alonside or on the detla grid itself provides me with a very strong sence of direction, which is important in getting into trades, setting SL and profit targets. Fibonacci ratios in relation to price and time are very useful to further pinpoint the more likely scenarios. The gearing between the different delta timeframes can be comparred to the gearing which has been applied to normal chart timeframes with a few rules mentioned in Bez's post. I find MTD and ITD gearing very helpful, and use it to a great advantage in trading using daily, 4hr, 1hr and 15min charts. In this way Delta in not a lagging indicator at all, it assist me to explore the future price action, and together with EW and fibs helps me to map it. It is not a prediction of the exact price performance either, but it nevertheless acts as a powerful filter for the direction which helps me in trading. Using the above require some initial work, but once done the maintenance of the charts is less timeconsuming. I use EOD data for mapping the price action on the ITD and MTD grid with EW and Fibs, but trade from intraday charts, but having a sence of direction. I am very interested whether there are other traders who are applying detla with EW and Fibs into their trading.
Happy trading to all, 2be

Perhaps a chart of some sort to accompagny all of this would help clarify some of the points you are making?

 

[2be]

Perhaps a chart of some sort to accompagny all of this would help clarify some of the points you are making?

For the benifit of those who follow this thread, I have PM Firewalker as I thought it was not appropriate and possibly confusing to plaster this publc forum with charts relating to my private and subjective journey in discovering the strenghts and weaknesses of delta applied alongside other components of my trading plan/strategy. I would like to express my gratitude to Bez who sometime ago gave me a very good advise through PM in relation to Delta. Part of it was to study EW, before getting onto Delta itself. Bez recommended Robert C. Miner "Dynamic trading" book. As I have already read Elliott wave principle by Frost and Prechter, I have found Miners book very readible indeed, and have studied it with a sence of achieving very purpesfull insight into price behaviour. Applying Elliott Wave theory Profitably by Steven W.Poser was another useful book on EW. After study Miner book I went to study/read about Delta. Another good friend John directed me to see the Matrix video before I actually read the Delta Phenomenon book. Though I have had the delta book for several weeks if not a couple of months before I have seen this video, I have been put off the book by what I thought was an increadibly long intro. After wathing the video several times over, and after another few weeks I got to the book, and surprise myself at enjoing the story, which I thought was an intro. I can understand peoples scepticism about delta. as it demands a few components to be in place before the whole thing starts to make a sense. There are some studies/reading to be done and some software must be in place. One of my friends actually programmed some indicators for MT4 and even automated delta functions on mt4 including STD using 4hr charts. But that is outside a point, of what I am trying to say. I am still working and developing my trading using delta as one of the components of my trading strategy. I wander if there are some other traders who would benifit from arranging a private thread dedicated to share experince of delta being a part of their oveall trading strategy. Why a private forum? there are many reasons, only dedicated students would benifit from delta + EW + fibs, others would be timewasters. Secondly, we could share our counts, delta and EW which can be easly misinterpreted by tradres who have no idea of either Delta, EW and the particular interpretatation of the Delta Phenomenon, resolving with greater harm then the intended good. Give razorblades to people, some would shave themselves while the other would only cut themselves, declaring the whole thing is positively dangerous, and they would have scares to proof it. There are also other reasons too, which the private forum would address in a better way. If there would be such an interest could you indicate it either by posting on this tread or PM. If there is none, I shall carry with few of us in the current manner.
Happy trading to all.
2be

 

[4xis2ez]

Here's what would be my intermediate Delta for gbpusd. The upcoming turn points are marked. Anybody who knows Delta knows that these turn points are averages and the timing is not perfect but rather this shows the order of turn points and for some people may help their trading. For most people, this will not help them. Over trading is generally the problem most trades have. If you trade Delta, you will only be in the market about 10% of the time. The rest of the time you will be flat. Many traders cannot stand not having a trade at all times in the market. These ones generally are the losers.

 

[4xis2ez]

Here's my upcoming intermediate Delta turn points for the S&P.

 

[Atilla]

Here's what would be my intermediate Delta for gbpusd. The upcoming turn points are marked. Anybody who knows Delta knows that these turn points are averages and the timing is not perfect but rather this shows the order of turn points and for some people may help their trading. For most people, this will not help them. Over trading is generally the problem most trades have. If you trade Delta, you will only be in the market about 10% of the time. The rest of the time you will be flat. Many traders cannot stand not having a trade at all times in the market. These ones generally are the losers.

Good post 4xis2ez, this site could certainly do with some DP charts and I'm certainly interested and would take heed of those turning points.

Maybe we can this thread going with some more contributors.

 

[trendie]

4xis2ez,

just to clarify; you are showing the TIME you anticipate the turns using Delta, and the "x"s you show are not expected PRICE??

My understanding is Delta shows the timing of turns, NOT the price.

Just so that newbies dont think the "x" shows the turning price and place orders there!

 

[2be]

Here's what would be my intermediate Delta for gbpusd. The upcoming turn points are marked. Anybody who knows Delta knows that these turn points are averages and the timing is not perfect but rather this shows the order of turn points and for some people may help their trading. For most people, this will not help them. Over trading is generally the problem most trades have. If you trade Delta, you will only be in the market about 10% of the time. The rest of the time you will be flat. Many traders cannot stand not having a trade at all times in the market. These ones generally are the losers.

Hi, good to see your ITD cable and S&P counts. Thankyou for sharing it on this forum. Agree with you that trading with Delta gives one an egde as not to overtrade, and trade in the Delta direction. There is so much to explain if one has not studied and practised this approach, and one would for ever explain the basics, or even worse, endlessly trying to convince others that delta works for those that are practitioners and diligent students of this particular approach. For this and other reasons I would propose to have a dedicated private members thread, where all those who practise delta approach would share with others their counts, approach and thoughts. Could you and other traders indicate on this thread whether you would be interested in participating if such private member thread was in place.
Happy trading and counting to get the next move right.
2be

 

[2be]

4xis2ez,

just to clarify; you are showing the TIME you anticipate the turns using Delta, and the "x"s you show are not expected PRICE??

My understanding is Delta shows the timing of turns, NOT the price.

Just so that newbies dont think the "x" shows the turning price and place orders there!

Hi Trendie, you are right to observe that delta is concerned with time and turning points, and the X marks are related to time. There is however a principle of gearing between the different delta timeframes, e.g. ITD with MTD with LTD and all of them exist in a price orientated suroundings, which the charts on different timeframes illustrate. There are many ways to use delta in trading, some use only 2 delta timeframes which correspond to each other and provide a sense od direction. Others use EW counts with fibo numbers and ratios, others use Gunn numbers and so on... in relation to delta counts, either to interpret them or to map them out.
Every turning point has to turn either up or down, so there is already some price indication there, especially if one works on two or three different delta timeframes, so indirectly, even purist delta practitioner has got some price targets, well mapped in time. I have mentioned it earlier, that I use EW and fibo numbers and ratios in relation to price and time. This is a particular, but by no means the only way to use delta in trading. EW and Fibos provide me with specific price target and in addition provide an extra mapping for the particular degree od Delta counts. I would stress that neither Delta, or EW is an easy way to make all your trades being succesful, but this approach in my experience has proved to be a very positive one in more then one way.
Would like to have your thoughts on the proposed Private members thread.
I could mail you some of my charts which would illustrate points I am trying to make.
Happy trading,
2be

 

[4xis2ez]

I found I did the intermediate turn points wrong on the previously posted chart so this is an edit. The long term is Steve Copan's 18 point MC3. The medium term and intermediate are my solutions. I use a 32 lunar month time frame to solve the intermediate and 96 lunar months for the medium. Using these time periods to solve for Delta result in no inversions, so my solutions will not invert. This is a chart of QQQQ as I trade the options, but the solutions will be fine for S&P 500 also. I generally trade 2 or 3 day swings, so I may do several trades inbetween intermediate turn points. Take care.

 

[2be]

According to my ITD cable count we are coming down to ITD6 Low on the move down, next MTD10 is also down, so we are travelling in the direction of a highier timeframe, and we are also on the 3rd of 3rd EW, with fibs indicating the area of 9400 within the next few days (around 21 April), then retacement,ITD7 High(around 25 April)might come quicker as it goes against the direction of MTD, which also should be EW4 of 3rd, after which comes ITD8 Low (after the first decade of may)might come later as it travels in the direction of a highier time frame, EW5of the 3rd, thus completing the EW3. Please take care to do your own counts as I am stil a learner of this approach. It is too early to calculate fibs on the other ITDs except of the coming ITD6. Please note that Delta indicates only time and price targets are worked out with the use of EW and Fibs, which are also used to further pinpoint time projections too. The normal rule apply to the interpretarion of the 3EW, especially in respect of what might follow after it.
Happy trading to all,
2be