Best Thread The 3 Duck's Trading System

Sgt Pepper.

I'm a full time trader for over six years now and I use a very similar method to this amongst others, I advise you to ignore fibs and all other "lines" apart form main S&R levels and main trend lines (channels). No professional trader I know uses fibs, they have no relevance in trading, in fact some years ago I ran some computer tests on EU 4hr and 1 hr to see at what level prices retraced. I found that they produce a "Normal Distribution" about the 50% level with no bulges in the curve at fib ratio levels. Lose all of that losing trader belief system baggage and I assure you you will become a better trader particularly with this method which is sound.
 
Interesting concept. Is that why every trading package in existence includes fibo retracement and projection tools as part of the package? Just wondering. Of course, fibo is used extensively in Elliott Wave, which was the basis for fibo back in the 30's and 40's. Elliott Wave International: Expert Market Forecasting Using the Elliott Wave Principle And yes, Cable is going to reverse from this point into a massive move down over the next few weeks.


Sgt Pepper.

I'm a full time trader for over six years now and I use a very similar method to this amongst others, I advise you to ignore fibs and all other "lines" apart form main S&R levels and main trend lines (channels). No professional trader I know uses fibs, they have no relevance in trading, in fact some years ago I ran some computer tests on EU 4hr and 1 hr to see at what level prices retraced. I found that they produce a "Normal Distribution" about the 50% level with no bulges in the curve at fib ratio levels. Lose all of that losing trader belief system baggage and I assure you you will become a better trader particularly with this method which is sound.
 
The 3 Ducks Trading System

Hi Started using this method last week very simple and it works up over 200 pips, this week in eurgbp only,from yesterday. Thanks Andy for sharing.

Go Bearmax! Hope you get some winners this week (don't forget NFP this Friday).

The Eur.Gbp trend looks a bit 50/50 this week (a lame Duck), probably better to be keeping an eye on Eur.Usd or Gbp.Usd, your Ducks favor buying these pairs.

Andy
Captain Currency
 
GBPUSD long will be exciting.

entry around 1.5440 and 1.5470 as initial take profit

EURUSD also have almost same entry
 
I advise you to ignore fibs and all other "lines" apart form main S&R levels and main trend lines (channels). No professional trader I know uses fibs

Cerano,

with all due respect i know 'a lot' of 'professional' traders who use fibs, does this mean fibs are any good? does my experience hold more weight than yours? no idea, it just means that anecdotal evidence really doesnt cut the mustard when giving advice, esp when giving it with zero context eg:

-how many professional traders do you know?
-how well are they doing?
-are any of those traders using other 'indicators'?
-definition of professional trader - insititutional / prop?
-the importance of big money (insitutional) in moving market price? (what are big money traders using?).

etc etc. just playing devils advocate.

happy trading.
 
Interesting concept. Is that why every trading package in existence includes fibo retracement and projection tools as part of the package? Just wondering. Of course, fibo is used extensively in Elliott Wave, which was the basis for fibo back in the 30's and 40's. Elliott Wave International: Expert Market Forecasting Using the Elliott Wave Principle And yes, Cable is going to reverse from this point into a massive move down over the next few weeks.

hmm. what's the consensus out there? Do other people use Fibs with the 3 ducks?

Best
 
I tried out fibs with the 3 ducks, and yes, candles do hit the fib levels but, you never know which level it's going to hit, some of the time you are trying to make the fibs fit the candles as opposed to the other way round, imho, support and resistance plays a much stronger role. Just my personal opinion.
 
Cerano,

with all due respect i know 'a lot' of 'professional' traders who use fibs, does this mean fibs are any good? does my experience hold more weight than yours? no idea, it just means that anecdotal evidence really doesnt cut the mustard when giving advice, esp when giving it with zero context eg:

-how many professional traders do you know?
-how well are they doing?
-are any of those traders using other 'indicators'?
-definition of professional trader - insititutional / prop?
-the importance of big money (insitutional) in moving market price? (what are big money traders using?).

etc etc. just playing devils advocate.

happy trading.

O.K fair comment, I'm talking about institutional and prop traders one former prop trader who knows many others told me that they (he and his colleagues of the time) laugh at the belief systems that retail traders hold. Also, I did say that I had personally tested the fib theory and found it had no validity on EU at least. I would suggest you do the same. I think you will find that if you look at fib values and also at other random % retracement values (i.e 30,40%,50%,60%...etc) for frequency of being hit on a retrace you will see no increased occurrences at fib levels but rather a smooth normal distribution with a peek around the 50% mark. Sorry but I don't believe there are any professional (profitable) traders that enter trades based on fib ratios. Listen to what another pro trader has to say about fibs......
Fibonacci Trading Strategy Why Traders Use Fib Techniques Strategies and Systems and Lose - YouTube
 
Interesting concept. Is that why every trading package in existence includes fibo retracement and projection tools as part of the package? Just wondering. Of course, fibo is used extensively in Elliott Wave, which was the basis for fibo back in the 30's and 40's. Elliott Wave International: Expert Market Forecasting Using the Elliott Wave Principle And yes, Cable is going to reverse from this point into a massive move down over the next few weeks.

Oh come on man, trading packages are generally provided by broker's who take the opposite side of your trade. Do you really think your broker wants you to win? Also, most packages include a fib tool with 50% and 76.4% neither of which are even fib ratios. Most of the stuff in these packages is just to confuse and divert your attention away from real trading skills. But hey, if you want to use magic lines who am I to dissuade you.:LOL:
 
I tried out fibs with the 3 ducks, and yes, candles do hit the fib levels but, you never know which level it's going to hit, some of the time you are trying to make the fibs fit the candles as opposed to the other way round, imho, support and resistance plays a much stronger role. Just my personal opinion.

Which just happens to be right:clap:

Those who can actually "observe" what the market really does will go on to make great traders, the rest will just put lines all over their charts.
 
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hmm. what's the consensus out there? Do other people use Fibs with the 3 ducks?

Best

95% of the people you're asking are losing traders. It's not how many people use it that important it's whether it works, and you can determine that yourself by back checking.:)
 
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95% of the people you're asking are losing traders. It's not how many people use it that important it's whether it works, and you can determine that yourself by back checking.:)

Yeah, you're right. I posted because it gets kind of solitary when you're learning to trade. Also, I know the kind of journey I'm going on is one many people have made before me, so it seems kind of logical to try and draw on this pool of knowledge to try and narrow things down a little. The problem for a dedicated beginner like me is there is too much material to read and study, so if you can knock out a few blind alley ways by getting advice then that would seem like a good thing to do.

But you are right; on a forum you don't know if the advice is any good. But then it's the same for the gurus, the web sites and the books...

Which brings us back by a circuitous route to the beginning; do everything yourself until it works for you. Just kind of makes it a solitary journey!

- that was cathartic. Back to the 3 ducks - I think it's a step in the right direction for me.

Best
 
Which brings us back by a circuitous route to the beginning; do everything yourself until it works for you. Just kind of makes it a solitary journey!

- that was cathartic. Back to the 3 ducks - I think it's a step in the right direction for me.

Best[/QUOTE]

totally agree everything has its place if you dont like it dont use it. I like the 3 ducks and it works.
 
You would do well to use the 3 Ducks going foward. That one thing would narrow your search down and get you profitable sooner than later. There is so much garbage on the internet related to trading, it will make your head spin. Nothing like a totally free approach in viewing the markets. There are alot of long timers on this forum that say the same thing. Also do some research at Elliott Wave International: Expert Market Forecasting Using the Elliott Wave Principle. That is also very good info, and it would teach you when to respect the individual fibo levels. Good Luck.



Which brings us back by a circuitous route to the beginning; do everything yourself until it works for you. Just kind of makes it a solitary journey!

- that was cathartic. Back to the 3 ducks - I think it's a step in the right direction for me.

Best

totally agree everything has its place if you dont like it dont use it. I like the 3 ducks and it works.[/QUOTE]
 
Well, than all I would say is you are totally missing out on good technical analysis. EW coupled with 3 Ducks is totally awesome. Your loss! And it was said above, "if you don't like it, don't use it."

not a lot of long timers here would say the same about that :D
 
Well, than all I would say is you are totally missing out on good technical analysis. EW coupled with 3 Ducks is totally awesome. Your loss! And it was said above, "if you don't like it, don't use it."

Forexkunta

Tried to message you but I need 20 posts under my belt before the forum will let me. Maybe you can get in touch.

re: EW, I've read a lot of Robert Miner's work, and was also lucky enough to stumble across a course Prechter made in 1987 on EW (back then they used an architect's compass on paper charts to plot their retracements and extensions!)

The way I figure I'm going to get higher probability trades is by knowing where I am in the market,

and the possible solutions to knowing where I am seem to be:

1. S&R, price action.
2. Fibs.
3. EW.
4. Various combos of the above.

I've yet to demo EW with the 3 Ducks yet, but it's down on my list of possibles to include in my war chest.

Best
 
All of those are a component of EW. I would suggest getting a copy of The Elliott Wave Principle, and reading the first 2 chapters to start getting a handle on the method. It may take a reading it a few times to get the feel. I know I have read it more than 30 times in the last 4 years, and I also use it for reference to make sure of patterns. EW is not a holy grail, but knowing where you are in a market is definitely an advantage.

Forexkunta

Tried to message you but I need 20 posts under my belt before the forum will let me. Maybe you can get in touch.

re: EW, I've read a lot of Robert Miner's work, and was also lucky enough to stumble across a course Prechter made in 1987 on EW (back then they used an architect's compass on paper charts to plot their retracements and extensions!)

The way I figure I'm going to get higher probability trades is by knowing where I am in the market,

and the possible solutions to knowing where I am seem to be:

1. S&R, price action.
2. Fibs.
3. EW.
4. Various combos of the above.

I've yet to demo EW with the 3 Ducks yet, but it's down on my list of possibles to include in my war chest.

Best
 
Yeah, you're right. I posted because it gets kind of solitary when you're learning to trade. Also, I know the kind of journey I'm going on is one many people have made before me, so it seems kind of logical to try and draw on this pool of knowledge to try and narrow things down a little. The problem for a dedicated beginner like me is there is too much material to read and study, so if you can knock out a few blind alley ways by getting advice then that would seem like a good thing to do.

But you are right; on a forum you don't know if the advice is any good. But then it's the same for the gurus, the web sites and the books...

Which brings us back by a circuitous route to the beginning; do everything yourself until it works for you. Just kind of makes it a solitary journey!

- that was cathartic. Back to the 3 ducks - I think it's a step in the right direction for me.

Best

For sure it's difficult to know who to trust, I can give you a few pointers.

1) Anyone posting that is not trading full time and making their income entirely from trading should be regarded with healthy scepticism. Just ask them.

2) Anyone who is selling anything particularly anything expensive is almost certainly making their main income from selling not trading. Caveat, a few pro's who genuinely like to help others do sometimes charge a little to cover their own costs, these are usually good deals, particularly for new traders.

3) Most retail traders use bucket shop brokers, you are not trading the real forex market you are trading a copy of it relayed to you from the real market, your trades do not affect the market you are seeing, so the idea that a lot retail traders doing the same thing can affect prices is a myth, you cannot affect the real market. Caveat, successful retail traders are treated differently by the broker who will offset liability in the real forex market in much the same way as a bookmaker "lays off" larger bets. You should regard your trades as the same as having a bet with a bookmaker.

4) Your broker is NOT your friend he is your deadly enemy, his objective is to wipe out your account in the shortest time possible, anything he offers you that will "help" you is almost certainly designed to do the opposite.

5) Trading is a skill much like driving a car, before you learned to drive did you, go on the internet and read every manual on how to drive? or ask every other driver you know how they do it? no of course not, nobody can tell you or show you how to drive, you have to get in the car and actually do it yourself, at first your co-ordination was all over the place, trying to steer, press the clutch, change gear....etc etc, all at the same time, but now you can probably drive entirely on autopilot (passing control to your subconscious) while you conscious attention is elsewhere. So don't expect to be a brilliant trader from the off, it aint going to happen, practice...practice...practice. But make sure that if you have an instructor he is not incompetent (losing trader)
 
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